ND JUL
21 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO
HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Powell claims gold-backed money would prevent the
Fed from pursuing full employment - as if all workers have monetary
planners to thank for their jobs - and stable prices... by which he means a dollar that steadily loses purchasing
power.
Chairman Powell’s testimony
last week was closely scrutinized not just for its economic implications but
also for its political overtones. Powell cited “trade
tensions” as cause for concern about the strength of the global
economy. He clearly
seemed to be blaming President Trump’s tariffs.
But if
the tariffs are what ultimately move the Fed to cut rates, Trump will have
finally gotten what he wants out of Powell. In recent weeks, Trump has
stepped up his attacks on the central bank, calling it the biggest problem
facing the economy, floating the idea of firing Powell, and suggesting his
administration would match China’s and Europe’s "currency
manipulation game."
Fed chairman Jerome Powell may sincerely want to
make monetary policy without regard to politics. But when political forces
exert themselves on the Fed, he finds himself in an impossible catch-22. If he fails to cut rates, then the central bank
risks becoming seen as the enemy of half the country as President Trump makes
it his foil at campaign rallies. If Powell does what the President wants, then
Democrats will accuse him of succumbing to political pressure from the White
House.
Democrats used Powell’s Congressional testimony as
an opportunity to get him on record in opposition to a gold standard.
Although Trump himself is not
calling for a gold-pegged dollar, one of his nominees to the Fed Board of
Governors is - or at least has in the past. Potential Fed policymaker Judy Shelton has written and spoken extensively
about the gold standard.
It’s no surprise that “too big to fail” bankers who
depend on special privileges from the Fed and other central banks don’t like
gold. It’s hard to orchestrate multi-trillion dollar bailouts of
the financial system when the currency supply is limited by gold .
Chairman Powell claims that gold-backed money would
prevent the Fed from pursuing full employment - as if all workers have monetary
planners to thank for their jobs - and stable prices. Of course, by “stable prices” he means prices
that rise at his target rate of two-percent inflation. He means a dollar that steadily loses
purchasing power.
Sound money, on the other hand, is market-based
money and can be based on
gold, silver,
or anything else the market values. If the dollar were defined simply in terms
of grains of silver, for example, then monetary policy and the politics
surrounding it would recede into the background. No longer would markets swing
wildly based on the particular phraseology contained in Fed policy statements.
No longer would every incumbent administration push
for easy money policies. Instead
of counting on the Fed to devalue existing debt and pave the way to pile on
more of it, hard choices would have to be made by members of Congress about
paying down debt and embarking on a fiscally sustainable path.
The fact that politicians, central bankers, and “too
big to fail” bankers all oppose a gold standard is a tacit admission that hard
money would serve as an effective constraint on their activities.
….
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"Our own simulations have shown
that, in terms of a positive impact on the economy, 25bp in cuts is a rounding
error, while 50bp might be enough to mitigate the downside risks we face
today."
While there are factors easily
supporting a rate cut at the July meeting, they don't necessarily justify the
magnitude we expect. We'd point out that in June seven FOMC participants
suggested the need for 50bp of accommodation this year, even before the FOMC
judged that global uncertainty had persisted beyond the G20 meeting. Based on
recent comments from policy-makers, we believe this number has grown. As such, we think the FOMC will be
debating when to deliver 50bp of accommodation, as opposed to whether
circumstances call for only 25bp.
See chart:
Will the Committee cut by 50bp all at once, or in a
gradual fashion reminiscent of the recent tightening cycle? In this regard, we note a deeply held view among
monetary policy-makers that near the zero lower bound the Fed must act
aggressively when low inflation or a downturn threatens. The message to
policy-makers today? Don't keep
your powder dry. In addition, our own simulations have shown that,
in terms of a positive impact on the economy, 25bp in cuts is a rounding error, while 50bp
might be enough to mitigate the downside risks we face today.
Putting to one side their
desire for aggressive action, current
market pricing indicates that market participants won't
see a 25bp cut as aggressive. And that could result in tighter financial
conditions than those in place today. To date, such
conditions have helped to "sustain the economic expansion, with a strong
job market and stable prices, for the benefit of the American people". The
recent labor market and inflation reports and retail sales data confirm this. Would policy-makers want to put
those accommodative financial conditions at risk by delivering the 50bp they
deem appropriate gradually? We doubt it.
….
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At some point, the Fed will disappoint very high expectations
Last August, several of Bank of
America's more skeptical analysts including Michael Hartnett and chief
economist Ethan Harris wrote a piece on thelaw of large numbers,
arguing that an ever-expanding list of uncertainties would likely undercut the
markets going into year-end. At the time, the main concerns were the trade war,
a hawkish Fed, Brexit, Quitaly and Iran oil sanctions.
And now, Bank of America once again warns that this fall, a similar set of concerns could come to a
head and halt the current rally in global equity markets.
See Chart:
Rising
uncertainties undercut global equity markets
As always, the trade war is at
the top of the list.
While BofA's economists are
hopeful for a partial de-escalation between the US and China in the next few
months, they
are becoming increasingly concerned that the current tariffs are permanent.
However, the list of global risks doesn't end with
trade. The next
deadline for Brexit is 31 October, and there is a significant risk of a
"no deal" exit either then or after another election. The oil market
seems able to handle Iran oil sanctions, but it may
face a bigger challenge if military conflict emerges in the Middle East.
On the other side of the world, relations between Japan and Korea have frayed
and there is a risk of a regional tech trade war in the coming months.
Finally, dysfunctional US politics are increasingly
becoming a focal point.
1- Debt limit: The
most urgent issue facing Congress right now is the debt limit. Breaching the debt limit and
running out of cash is much worse than a government shutdown. The latter
closes a limited range of activities; the former means immediately balancing
the budget on a daily basis and a high risk of defaulting on a debt payment.
Last week, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to
House Leader Pelosi that the Treasury could run out of extraordinary measures
by early-September, meaning that there is less than two months until the
"x-date".
See Chart:
Projected Cash Balance &
Extraordinary Measures ($Bll)
2- Budget deal:
3- USMCA
4- Fed nominations: President
Trump announced that he will nominate Judy Shelton and Chris Waller to the
Federal Reserve Board. Chris Waller is a relatively
conventional choice for the Board. Judy Shelton is not: in 2009, she
argued that easy monetary and fiscal policy would create "ruinous
inflation"; today, with the economy fully
recovered from the Great Recession, she favors quickly cutting rates. If
they are confirmed to the Fed, the two nominees will
fill seats expiring in 2024 and 2030 (Table 1). Note that only the Senate will
need to confirm their nominations with a simple majority.
See Table 1
5- Bipartisan wish list: Other policy proposals (eg, middle-income tax cuts,
infrastructure and immigration reform) remain on the backburner. Given the
political climate and split Congress, these policies are unlikely to get a look
until after the 2020 elections.
That
said, there are two important silver linings in these dark clouds
according to BofA.
First, the
Trump Administration is very reluctant to impose broad-based consumer tariffs.
This makes across-the-board China, autos and Vietnamese tariffs less likely.
Second,
since last fall, the Fed has done a 180-degree turn
from steady tightening to pre-emptive easing. This not only helps
cushion the trade shock in the US, but has also created space for many emerging
market central banks to ease as well. The problem is
that the market is already pricing
in more rate cuts than many banks - certainly Bank of America - believe the Fed is likely to deliver.
The
bottom line is that, according to Bank of America's top economists, for now investors can continue to bask in the glow of
Fed-fueled financial markets. However, "once
that burns out and the rains arrive, the picture could look a lot different."
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"I need to be able to feed myself!"
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The $15 minimum
Hourly wage is a FACT TODAY in all America. Si hay
alquien que recibe el otro minimun –el de Ley-
son los emigrantes ya residentes y/o algunos afro-americans que
compensan ese ingreso con condiciones de trabajo que –bien sumandos- llega
también a los $15 USD. The
hilarious hypocrisy -HH-doesn’t belong to Sanders, it belong to the stupid idiot who
wrote the HH
====
...the real solution does not lie in throwing a
few extra bucks at the central American regimes in hope they might
build a couple of new highways. The real solution lies in expansion of trade and capital
investment...
….
La grave situacion economica de los centro Americanos la explico
Michael Hudson in a recent art MICHAEL HUDSON: DE-DOLLARIZING THE
AMERICAN FINANC... In
HOW LOW INTEREST RATES LOWER
THE DOLLAR’S EXCHANGE RATE, RAISING IMPORT PRICES he said:
Trump’s guiding idea is that lowering the dollar’s value will lower the
cost of labor to employers. That’s what happens when a currency is devalued.
Depreciation doesn’t lower costs that have a common worldwide price. There’s a
common price for oil in the world, a common price of raw materials, and pretty
much a common price for capital and credit. So the
main thing that’s devalued when you push a currency down is the price of labor
and its working conditions. Workers are squeezed when a currency’s exchange
rate falls, because they have to pay more for goods they import.
In other words is the exportation of speculative dollars to the Govts
in the South that create the misery they
are suffereing now. In his previous work: Why the US
has lunch a New Financial Works & Hoe other will respond? Michael
Hudson said:
“Las finanzas son la nueva forma de conducir
la Guerra sin los costos dimanantes de
gastos militares y ocupación de territorio hostil. A lo que estamos asistiendo
es a una competición de crédito que sirva para comprar en el extranjero
recursos exteriores, bienes raíces, infraestructura pública, bienes y acciones
de propiedad de empresas. Quien necesita un ejercito
cuando puede lograr los objetivos habituales (apropiación de riqueza
crematística y de activos) sirviéndose sencillamente de medios financieros. .. La
clave es convencer a los bancos centrales extranjeros de
que acepten ese credito electrónico”.
El free
trade y el “Foreign Aid” have such purpose: saqueo imperial. Eso es lo
que causo la miseria de Centro America y es la razon por la cual migran hacia
el norte. No tienen trabajo en su país, no hay esperanzas de vida allí a causa
del squeo de los créditos electrónicos. Ellos saben que el bajo salario que van
a recibir servirá para presionar hacia abajo el salario del resto de los
trabajadores y son los mismo empresarios del norte quienes van a burlar
cualquier muralla que se fabrique en la frontera.
Ademas ya hay miles de trabajadores de Mx que tienen un numero
incrustado en la piel lo que les sirve para cruzar la frontera cuando se los
necesite. El miedo de Trump es que los nuevos inmigrantes puedan convertirse en
Rev y ayuden a rescatar las tierra antes arrebatadas a Mex siglos atras. Lo que
si podría ocurrir si los planes del US para el WW3 están ya calculados. El WW3 es una trampa para America por donde se la mire. Y
el ZERO SOVEREING DEBT será la primera medida
que los emigrantes podrían reclamar.
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The automation revolution is here.
….
Es una revolución?
–mejor llamarla involucion- asociada al Greed vs. publ-NEED y
si el crush Economico revienta la esperanza de los especuladores de WS o
si el WW3 estalla.. Adios a la involucion del inversor
especulador.
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search
for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
O-I-L
====
"...it
is perfectly obvious that Ukrainian
oligarchs gave money to Trump’s opponents. I do not know
whether they did this by themselves or with the knowledge of the authorities..."
….
Esta historieta es realmente estupida: no dan ninguna prueba de los que
dicen
====
Adonde van las moscas y los moscones sino a la
mierda acumulada.. pero eso no dura
Buying a big-ticket cache of new US military hardware would certainly
be looked upon kindly in
Washington, a move that would help to narrow Hanoi’s trade surplus while
further cementing US-Vietnam defense ties...
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via
wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Gobernador de Puerto Rico: "Anuncio que no iré a la reelección"
- VIDEO: Izan la bandera de Irán en el petrolero británico incautado en el estrecho de Ormuz
- EE.UU. reconoce avances por los esfuerzos de México y los planes de El Salvador para reducir la migración ilegal
- VIDEO: Intercepción de un avión de reconocimiento de EE.UU. por un caza venezolano
- Caracas promete seguir dialogando hasta lograr un acuerdo permanente con la oposición
- Canciller iraní: "Al fracasar en atraer a Trump a una guerra contra Irán, Bolton arrastra a Londres en ese conflicto"
- El partido del presidente Zelenski lidera en las elecciones en Ucrania
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-
America’s Latest Mideast Crisis May Have No
Escape By Patrick J. Buchanan
-
What makes Iran strong enough to stand
against a superpower like the USA?
By Elijah J. Magnier
By Elijah J. Magnier
-
As politics are shaken up, a peace coalition
emerges By Steven Greenhut
-
Trump falsely claims Demo congresswomen spoke
of ‘evil Jews’ By Times Of
Israel
-
Trump’s ‘go back’ racism is crude, but may be
dangerously effective By Afua Hirsch
-
‘Anti-Trump’ CNN Presstitute Defends Trump’s
Persecution Of Assange
By Caitlin Johnstone
By Caitlin Johnstone
-
In Crisis of Democracy, We All Must Become
Julian Assange By Nozomi
Hayase
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PRESS
TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
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