ND JUL 30
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
LET’S GO
TO THE BOTTOM CHARTS
But before check subtitles that
precedes:
US
markets were mixed with Small Cap soaring off early weakness but the rest of
the majors ending red with Nasdaq worst
Is a Fed rate-cut enough to
make new highs in stocks... just like we did in 1987...
Small
Caps were saved by another huge short-squeeze
BYND was battered...
And
Under Armor was hammered...
VIX is about to enter the
riskiest part of the year
Another
extremely narrow range day in Treasuries that ended with yields down 1-2bps
across the curve
The Dollar Index trod water on
the day
Oil
prices spiked today as China trade talks and Iran tensions raised premia as
copper crumbled, PMs both rallied
WTI spiked back above $58 ahead
of tonight's API inventory data
Finally, given the market's expectations of at least a 25bps cut
tomorrow, one wonders what the point is when global financial conditions are
back at extreme easy levels...
See Chart:
Global Financial Conditions
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Also worth noting is
the VERY long positioning in crowded Nasdaq...
See Charts:
See more charts at:
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So, there’s more than 110 million barrels of crude in
storage, ready to flow and push prices lower. Since the chance of
the United
States suddenly reconsidering its stance on Iran is
non-existent, this amount will only continue to rise.
See Chart:
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...if equity markets fail one more time at our key resistance
point, we believe the reversal is likely to be sharper and deeper than one
might expect, even if the earnings recession is more benign than we
expect.
See Chart:
See More interesting charts at:
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There is only remaining question that
matters for traders ahead of tomorrow's historic - the first easing cycle in 12
years - binary event: How will the
market react to a 25bps vs a 50bps rate cut? Here are some
suggestions...
As we have noted in recent
days, while the market-implied probability of a 50bps cut has slumped in the
past few weeks, and is down to just 17% as of this writing, there are two arguments why the Fed may still go for the
"shock and awe" approach.
See Exhibit 1:
The Fed points to global
growth, trade uncertainty, and manufacturing weakness to justify its concerns.
So, given the claims that US data has been so good, Morgan
Stanley compared the current state of affairs in…
- US and global manufacturing (via PMIs)
- US and broader economic data (via popular surprise indices),and
- US financial conditions
Today,
it’s about downside risks coming from global growth and trade uncertainty. And
as shown in the chart below, things look worse today than at the September 2007
meeting on every metric.
See Exhibit 3:
Global Manufacturing PMIs, Econ
Surprise Index. Finc condit Sept 2007 vs. Today
Check
this one from Bloomberg (sorry,
nothing to do with the art but imformative)
Continue
the Art above:
As Morgan Stanley explains, with limited room to cut rates, the Fed should save rate cuts
for when they are most needed, and due to the limited room the Fed has to lower
interest rates, every rate cut needs to count. But how do you make every rate cut
count? Simple: by delivering more than what markets price in (i.e.
25bps). That is exactly what happened during the
2001-2003and 2007-2008 hiking cycles
See Charts:
A
second reason for why the Fed will likely surprise the market dovishly and cut
50bps, comes from Nomura's Charlie McElligott today, who instead of looking at
macroeonomic conditions, whether domestic or international, focuses on
persistent dollar strength, the "nervous" funding and money markets,
and the (partially) clogged up dollar liquidity.
As McElligott explains, a scenario where the Fed would shock the markets with a 50bps
cut would likely come down to their (unspoken) concerns around
- USD strength (as a clear headwind to achieving their inflation goal and as a headwind to US exporters) which comes part and parcel with
- Dollar funding/liquidity “tightness” into a slowing global economy
Specifically, USD-funding
markets/indicators are getting even “nervier” and beyond the
already-increasingly erratic month-end turn “tightness.” Here, McElligott also
refers to the latest Treasury refunding/issuance announcement, where the
Treasury said it now expect to borrow a whopping $433B in Q3 to rebuild the
cash supply following the suspension of the debt ceiling
"deal", this as we noted yesterday, is
more than double the April estimate.
See Table
Sources
& Uses: Reconciliation table
This
means a massive wall of T-Bill issuance coming in the next 2 months - one which
will promptly soak up liquidity from the banking system (see chart below), into
a backdrop where Dealer balance sheets are already loaded to the gills along-with
increasingly “price-sensitive” domestic investors and foreign real $ who too
remain sensitive to the cost of the almost “punitive” FX hedge.
See Chart:
Finally, we present one final
consideration from McElligott, who thinks a 50bps power
cut perversely risks a market
interpretation that this is then “just” a one-time “insurance cut” action, as
opposed to a 25bps “slow-and-steady” cut which opens door to more behind.
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"The fundamental data has been
disappointing this year and in many cases, it is still getting worse, not
better."
See Chart:
See
More interesting charts at:
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Envy, it
bears mentioning, is an inalterable facet of the human condition. But there
is scant evidence that
jealousy (again, if unfostered by politicians and
court intellectuals)
has effects which consolidate and
multiply socially.
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"... it's unconstitutional and
it opens up the possibility for states to load up more requirements on
candidates in future elections. "
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Battle lines drawn.
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The man,
a Honduran national,
confessed to border agents when he was faced with a DNA test...
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BE AFRAID! .. is what they want: WILL YOU FOLLOW SUCH
ORDER?
As
technology continues to advance, we
will lose all privacy and all freedom. We are already well on our
way to complete totalitarianism.
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Suggestion: drilling own hole
is the way to find oil
...it
wouldn't shock us if the administration is preparing bailouts for the coal industry, just in time for
the 2020 election.
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Paredon is the solut.. If
not, he will ruin Trump’s lolito
reputatn. I don’t wanta pedo-T
EPSTEIN
ACCUSED OF FORCIBLY RAPING 15-YEAR-OLD IN NEW DOCS FILED DAY BEFORE MYSTERIOUS
PRISON INJURY
"I was terrified, and I was telling him to stop. 'Please stop'"
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OPEN A
DEBATE WITH E-WARREN: “Hillary Clinton could only teach how to lose” at
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If the
Federal Reserve doesn’t cut rates and the U.S. economy really starts going off
the rails, they will be President
Trump’s number one economic target during the 2020 campaign...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Easy to find fleas in your head
then missiles in ISR , N-K.. etc. Did you count US M-ww?
For the second time in a week, North Korea has seemingly snubbed
President Trump by test-firing multiple unidentified projectiles this morning.
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In www.rt.com/business OPEN the title : Companies people to hate:
world most despised Corp.
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars &
danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI ORG
[ No olvidar el tema, donde y cuando, en menos
de 10 palabras ]
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Corea del Sur: Los proyectiles lanzados por Pionyang fueron dos misiles balísticos de corto alcance
- VIDEO: El "hombre de hierro de la vida real" británico prueba exitosamente un traje especial que le permite 'volar' sobre el agua
- EE.UU. pide a Brasil evitar "píldoras venenosas" en el tratado comercial entre Mercosur y la Unión Europea
- Seúl advierte de que el nuevo gran submarino de Pionyang puede portar hasta tres misiles balísticos
- Ovnis, comunismo y neonazis: qué cuentan los archivos desclasificados de la CIA sobre Argentina
- VIDEO, FOTOS: Mexicanos 'desmontan' el muro fronterizo con EE.UU. con balancines que unen a gentes de ambos países
- El muy raro fenómeno de una 'superluna negra' ocurrirá este miércoles en América del Norte: ¿de qué se trata?
- Un policía de EE.UU. dispara cuatro veces contra un hombre de 62 años en su propia casa
- Rusia ante la ONU: "Occidente quiere preservar la presencia terrorista en la provincia siria de Idlib"
- Keiser Report El golpe de China que "quiebra muchas cabezas" en el US
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-
Trump is powering the UK’s preparations for
war – it is he who needs to be deterred, not Iran By Robert Fisk
-
Tanker Seizures and the Threat to the Global
Economy By Craig Murray
-
New Captain for a Sinking Britain By Eric Margolis
-
The Crisis of Anglo-American Democracy By Jeffrey D. Sachs
-
“U S” to Imperial America: Our Hidden Empire By Abby Martin
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The Coming Savings Meltdown By Michael Hudson
-
Brazil’s Massive Crime Against Humanity By Paul Craig Roberts
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
Comes after Beijing charged that unrest is "creation of the US"
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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PRESS
TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
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