sábado, 13 de julio de 2019

ND JUL 12 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  JUL  12  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Is this an ‘Official’ interference: some messages don’t coincide with charts?

Not a meltup...
See Chart:


Cyclical stocks melted up today, outperforming defensives that had dominated the week until then...
See chart:


S&P Tech Sector topped 20x Fwd P/E today - its highest since Nov 2007...
See Chart:


For the first time in 7 weeks, the aggregate return from holding the long-bond and the S&P was negative...
See Chart:


Credit and equity protection costs diverged notably the last few days as VIX collapsed to a 12 handle and credit spreads widened..
See Chart:


The yield curve steepened dramatically this week...
See Chart:


But we note that each time the 3m10Y curve tried to get back above zero (un-invert), it failed...
See Chart:


The dollar is down 3 days in a row to end the week (post-Powell) after surging post-Payrolls...
See Chart:


Meanwhile, FX vols have collapsed. USDJPY im;lied vol is at a record low...
See Chart:


WTI ended the week back above $60 but hit a wall of resistance at the longer term downtrend...
See Chart:


Finally, we offer the following from BofA:
"...we anticipate an "overshoot" in credit & equity prices in coming months, followed by an overshoot in gold (US$ devaluation) before big H2 top in asset prices (as bond bubble pops & policy impotence visible)."
And Then?
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A whiff of stagflation in the heavy summer air?
What the hell is Stagflation?
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The answer in this article: OPEN it

One auction does not make a trend, but there are other worrying signs. As noted in the below chart by Bianco Research today, relative bidding interest at two, five, seven and 10-year U.S. Treasury note auctions continues a protracted decline seen throughout this cycle:
See Chart:
30 Years NOTE Auction Details

Bond-splainin'
From Bloomberg Opinion today:
With some $13 trillion of bonds worldwide yielding less than zero percent, it would be easy to characterize fixed-income assets as nothing more than a giant bubble waiting to burst. Those who agree probably haven’t heard of the concept of a “Giffen good.”
Goodbye Ph.D. standard, hello B.S. standard?

Bears on vacation
From June 29 at the Omni Hotel Mount Washington, via the Associated Press:
Rather than taking in the historical sights (the resort famously served as the venue for the 1944 Bretton Woods monetary agreement), the furry Bear visitor was merely “in search of a trash can.”
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After weeks of gloom, the oil market is tightening up once again. But it’s not clear how long the upward cycle will last...


After weeks of gloom, the oil market is tightening up once again. But it’s not clear how long the upward cycle will last. OPEC admitted this week that it may need to keep the production cuts in place, perhaps beyond the latest extension, because of soaring production from U.S. shale.

A combination of geopolitical tension in the Persian Gulf, outages in Venezuela and Iran, a pending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the brewing storm in the Gulf of Mexico has led to strong price increases in oil over the last few days.

In other words, OPEC+ may be stuck with the production cuts, forced to perpetually extend them in a Sisyphean attempt to keep oil prices from collapsing. The supply curtailments do indeed put a floor beneath prices, but that only serves to prop up even more shale drilling.

“Infrastructure constraints – particularly pipeline capacity in the Permian, the downward trend in rig counts, lower activity by service companies and less fracking – indicate a growth slowdown in 2019,” OPEC wrote in its report. “However…[w]ith 2.5 mb/d of expected new pipeline capacity from the Permian to the USGC, production from the booming Permian Basin is forecast to grow without any constraints.” More pipelines means more drilling, which ultimately means more supply hits the global market.

New export terminals also come into play. “The pipeline expansion along with port enhancements for more exports – particularly in Corpus Christi – is expected to increase from a current level of about 1 mb/d to around 2.9 mb/d by the end of 2020,” OPEC said.

OPEC’s conundrum is stark. Although written in the bland language of a typical forecast, OPEC’s July report offered a rather grim outlook for the cartel. 

“Demand for OPEC crude for 2019 was revised up by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report to stand at 30.6 mb/d, 1.0 mb/d lower than the 2018 level,” the report said. “Based on the first forecasts for world oil demand and non-OPEC supply for 2020, demand for OPEC crude for 2020 is projected at 29.3 mb/d, 1.3 mb/d lower than the 2019 level.”

In other words, as U.S. shale continues to grow at a brisk pace, OPEC is faced with the possibility that its production cuts are insufficient in balancing the market.
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Millennials has to join the SOCIALISTs to fight for ZERO DEBT

The life-altering impacts of student loan debt on millions of millennials has been astonishing.
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SOCIALISM:the only option .. bureaucrat in Rep-Dem parties won’t do it
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"[party's] over -- people are desperate and they’re hunting down the after-party. We probably only have a few hours left...”

As Bloomberg reportsshe's selling junk bonds in a contrarian bet that the debt rally is on its last legs - with the potential to trap funds with billions staked in levered and often illiquid assets - cutting high-yield exposure to 10% from as high as 30% in 2016, in one of her unconstrained funds.
“There’s more risk than reward right now,” she said.
“There are real end-of-cycle fears about what performs.”
See Chart:


From her vantage point managing a slew of global credit funds, she sees the long-bemoaned opacity and leverage of junk issuers is now at a tipping point.
See Chart:
Leverage’ Net Debt per Share  vs US HY Credit Risk (OAS)


We've seen this farce before, as Bloomberg details, when Lehman went bust, the mother of four was a portfolio manager at its investment arm, but before that, in May 2007, Gomez-Bravo became cautious on U.S. risk and issued warnings on corporate health - which bear echoes with the intense hunt for yield today.

“Everything was bid indiscriminately,” she recalls.
“I knew things were heating up; there were telltale signs. It’s always difficult to leave money on the table, but as a result we avoided the blow-ups.”

So, as far as knowing when to leave the party this time, we come full circle with Gomez-Bravo's current warning:
“In fact it’s over -- people are desperate and they’re hunting down the after-party. We probably only have a few hours left.”
Trade Accordingly.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


False hope breeds crippling apathy...

False hope breeds crippling apathy – This is what I have to think to myself when I see the news media fervor over the second arrest of billionaire Jefferey Epstein, or similar events which in most cases end up fading into the background and forgotten. The public's favorite distraction has always been to watch high profile people kicked out of their castles in the clouds, but I would point out that even when the globalists sacrifice one of their own in the public eye it is usually only to satiate the masses and their hunger for justice for a very short time. The system is not designed to root out evil; it is designed to obscure and perpetuate evil.
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Continue reading at:
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La muerte acecha.. unos por hacer que se respete la Consti; pa-otros p-burlarla

Both the media and its pro-gun opponents mostly focus on gun laws and conventional methods to carrying out gun policy. But what’s often ignored is the massive bureaucratic monstrosity in the background that micromanages all gun affairs in America.
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Unos cargan el fusil adquirido legalmente y los otros son los asesinos que usara el GOB para desarmarlos. El fétido olor a  muerte ya se siente en el ambiente y si vuelan una casa con enteras familias dentro  es casi seguro que habrá TIT for TAT y enteras estaciones de los asesinos con  uniforme también podría ser voladas.. Ocurrió en Mx.. y ocurrirá aquí. Eso fue más fácil que matar 20 vampiros con  los gases de Monsanto + un auto manejado a control remoto. Banning firearms is stupid at this time.. Given arms to the NATION for top security-reson si es buena idea
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"The level of secrecy around a steel safe in Epstein’s office, in particular, suggested it contained much more than just money..."
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"Pricing was a little high, so we went through a correction..." 
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As is often the case, “terrorism” is the principal reason being cited for the need to read and listen to the communications of ordinary citizens...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


"PLAYING WITH FIRE": CHINA'S MILITARY WARNS US OVER TAIWAN ARMS SALES   [[ This “fire” with “fire” goes out ]]

Cease meddling in China's affairs, PLA warns, after Washington's okaying the sale of $2.2 billion in weapons.
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What if China announce is installing missile-nukes very close to US?
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

- Seven More Gray Whales Found Dead in Alaska, Total Spikes to 22  Si la contaminacion del guerrersimo imperial (venta de armas y promoción d guerras afecta big whales.. por que no a los pequenios pescados que comemos?
- Hezbollah Head Says Trump Administration Aims to Open Communication Channels With Movement  Ganar la paz 1ro (conocer al enemigo) para saber donde darle, cuando y como…VIEJA TACTICA que hoy es solo engaña bobos
- Turkish Defence Chief Tells Acting US Defence Secretary that S-400 Purchase Was Necessary  Turkey es miembro activo de NATO.. por que RU confía en ellos
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
 
ECON: UE-Merco-Sur Los perdedores de siempre  Luciana G y A Frenkel
US: Grito por Igualdad: Selección de fútbol fem gana batalla global AG y DM
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ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

- The Five Stages of Collapse  By Dimitri Orlov
- De-Dollarizing the American Financial Empire  By Michael Hudson & B F
- How We Ended Up With Kids in Cages   By Peter Van Buren
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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