ND JUL 14
19
SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
HOW
AOC SET A "DEATH TRAP" FOR THE WORLD'S MOST POWERFUL CENTRAL BANK AND
SET THE STAGE FOR MMT Must Read!
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly
undermined the authority of the world’s most powerful central bank. Paving the
way for a new approach to policy. Modern Monetary Theory. MMT.
In early 2014, the Federal
Reserve believed the long-term neutral unemployment rate was 5.4%,” said
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Fed Chairman Powell, gently placing a hunk of
cheese on the trigger plate.
“In
2018, it was estimated at around 5.4% and now your estimate is 4.2%,” continued
AOC, pulling back the killing bar.
“What
is the current rate?” she asked, delicately positioning the holding rod
so that even the slightest nibble by the Fed Chairman would activate the
mousetrap. “3.7% unemployment,” answered Powell.
“And
inflation is no higher today than it was five years ago when you thought the
neutral rate was 5.4%,” she said, sounding surprised, after all, the
seven-member Fed Governing Board includes the nation’s leading economists, and
has at its disposal the most comprehensive data available on the US economy.
“Given the facts, do you think it’s possible that
the Fed’s estimates of the lowest sustainable unemployment rate may have been
too high?” asked AOC, stepping back slowly, as Powell drew closer to
the cheese, incapable of wandering away.
You
see, the Fed’s record has been so
utterly wrong in so many ways, over so many years that even the simplest line
of questioning presents an inescapable death trap.
“Absolutely.
It’s substantially lower than we thought,” answered Powell, doing his
best to sound upbeat to the executioner.
“So the
idea of a Phillips Curve is no longer describing what is happening in today’s
economy?” asked AOC, smiling.
“Very
much so. The connection between slack in the economy or level of unemployment
and inflation was very strong 50yrs ago. But it has gotten weaker to the point
where it’s a faint heartbeat,” said Powell, nibbling the cheese.
The killing bar swung down, snapping with a crack as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly undermined the authority of
the world’s most powerful central bank. Paving the way for a new approach to
policy. Modern Monetary Theory. MMT.
….
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"Collectively, we have closed our eyes to
this possibility ever happening to the world economy in the modern era...Recessions that are based on prices that are too low for the
producer are the more severe type."
See Chart:
Growth
in World Energy Consumption has lagged behind 2% since 2011
See
more charts at
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JPMorgan finds "limited upside
for equities from here even if the 1995/1998 insurance-rate-cuts scenario plays
out over the coming months. And any equity upside would become even more
limited if bond markets fail to sustain their H1 gains."
Despite equity markets making new highs, investors are not as OW in
equities as they were last September simply because bond markets rallied
strongly in recent months making them less UW in bonds. Effectively,
the past months’ bond rally has been boosting equities by creating more room
for investors to increase their equity allocations, something we discussed in
parsing the potential for a pension fund driven meltup at the end of last
quarter.
This is
shown in the chart below which shows that investors globally have an allocation
to equities of 43.6% currently, which is somewhere in between the post-Lehman
high of 45.5% seen last September and the recent low of 41.8% seen last
December.
See Chart:
What this means, said simply,
is that Equity Long/Short hedge
funds would struggle to produce such returns if they were underweight equities.
Other investor classes, as
also discussed
earlier, had notably higher market betas: risk
parity funds produced a return of 4.7% in June and 13.4% in H1 beating their
benchmark. And CTAs produced a very strong return in June likely
benefiting from long positions in both equities and bonds. This is consistent
with JPM's trend-following framework which suggests that CTAs are currently pretty long in both bond and equity
futures. It is also consistent with the new highs seen in the spec positions of
US equity futures by asset managers and leveraged funds (Chart below).
See Chart:
Notably, these equity futures positions are even
higher than last September, which
to JPM is evidence suggesting little support for the “Bears everywhere”
thesis.
In summary, Panigirtzglou concludes that his position-based
analysis "points
to limited upside for equities from here even if the 1995/1998
insurance-rate-cuts scenario plays out over the coming months" and,
worse, "any
equity upside would become even more limited if bond markets fail to sustain
their H1 gains."
….
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History is clear on this one. If this
is the beginning of a full-blown rate-cutting cycle by the Fed in an attempt to
ward off a recession à la 1990, 2001 or 2008, stocks typically don’t do well
after the first cut.
See Chart:
….
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[ Interesting
bla bla. nothing touch in deep .. but it create puzzles ..read it if get time ]
The US seems to have a suicide wish as it wanders aimlessly down
a continually narrowing path that can only lead to national ruin. Is this a
premeditated act of self-annihilation or simply a series of foolish choices?
Before a nation can be
effectively destroyed from within it is necessary first that it be owned lock,
stock and barrel. An independent, freedom-loving people are less easily
controlled than one that is effectively ball and chained, which brings us to
the first step in the program.
1. Create a Central Bank
Beginning around 1910,
representatives from the leading banking powerhouses – Morgan, Rockefeller,
Rothschild, Warburg and Kuhn-Loeb – began meeting in secret at distant retreats,
and not for the purpose of philandering with underage girls, mind you. No,
these elitists had a totally different sort of crime up their sleeves, and that
was to dominate the entire US banking system. And would it really surprise
anyone that they succeeded? This was achieved by the
passage of the Federal Reserve Act, signed into law by President Woodrow Wilson
on Dec. 23, 1913, which took away the constitutional power “to coin money,
regulate the value thereof,” as enacted by the US Constitution.
2. Open the Floodgates
Ever since the passage of the
Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, legislation that has single-handedly
altered the face of America forever, the United States has become a cauldron,
not a salad bowl, of cultural and ethnic differences.
Once a nation largely comprised of European immigrants, that demographic is
expected to become the minority in a few short decades. And the people just
keep coming.
Today, it is automatically
assumed that because America got its start as a ‘nation of immigrants’ that it
is somehow expected to keep its doors open forever. We are expected to forever
comply with the words of the poem, ‘The New Colossus’, written by the
Jewish-American Emma Lazarus, engraved on the pedestal of the Statue of
Liberty, which says:
“Give me
your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”
Yet mass legal migration into
the country is no longer considered enough. Even the very concept of a border
wall or fence has been derided as
“racist,” a grand “monument to white supremacists,” by the radical left.
3. Push Feminism, the Pill and Abortion
In 1960, with the advent of
reliable contraception known as “the Pill,” followed up later with nationwide
Planned Parenthood abortion clinics, American society entered upon one of its
greatest revolutions of all time. Women, now free to engage in noncommittal
sexual relations without fear of unwanted pregnancy, celebrated their
emancipation by, yes, entering the workforce. But since
there were dishes piling up in the sink and hungry mouths to feed, newly
radicalized feminists, seeing males as nothing more than nails that need
constant pounding, demanded ‘equal rights’ across the board.
Camille
Paglia, the American ‘anti-feminist feminist’ academic, has critiqued
that part of feminist ideology that has turned men and women into enemies at
worst, strangers at least.
“At this point it’s turned into a neurosis,” Paglia said in
a 2017 interview.
And just like that, the two
most fundamental relations – that between man and woman – have become almost irreparably damaged, while the
greatest victims are American society and the all-important family unit.
4. Supersize the military
[[ Get
deep on this issue… the others are either personal or family matters ]]
No other nation state or empire
in history has had a greater global military footprint than the United States.
But that vast presence – with an estimated 800
bases in 80 countries worldwide – does not
necessarily equate to power. In fact, it may be
the ultimate source of weakness, the veritable Achilles heel of US strength.
Whether that would be a
blessing in disguise or the precursor to global pandemonium is anyone’s guess.
In any case, to believe for a second that the United
States can forever stay one step ahead of excessive spending and corruption
just because it has a Central Bank to bail it out may prove to be the greatest
fallacy of modern times.
5. Promote transgender lifestyles – to children
Personally, like most people,
I’ve got no problem with people choosing whatever sexual lifestyle they desire.
My only requirement is that they either keep it in the bedroom or get a hotel
room. Pretty simple. In these days of sexual oversaturation, however, when the LBGTQ community has been designated an entire month
to celebrate their sexual proclivities on the street, while the
straight, child-producing majority is essentially ostracized and
even linked to – wait for it – “white nationalists,” then it’s safe to say,
‘Houston, we’ve got a problem’.
Can a
society that condones such inhumane treatment of its most vulnerable members
survive? It is the opinion here that it cannot. Playing such mind games
with impressionable children, and then attempting to turn them into the
opposite sex with lifelong use of drugs, coupled with surgical procedures is
the very definition of insanity. With all due respect for transgender people, children should not be introduced to questions of a sexual
nature until they are considered legal adults.
6. Bury your national history over PC lunacy
What is now happening is that American history is in the process of being
rewritten according to the dictates of what is considered to be ‘politically
correct’. Don’t believe it? You don’t need to watch Civil War
statues tumbling into the dirt for proof. Just perform a quick Google search on
‘American inventors.’
If there is an equivalent in
America to Orwell’s ‘Ministry of Truth,’ that
place would have to be Silicon Valley, where
Liberal-oriented employees are quietly determining what is worthy of public
attention and what is not. Google
insiders, like James Damore, the former Google
employee circulated a
memo describing the company’s “ideological echo
chamber” that actively works to discriminate against conservatives,
Whites and men.
Today, with
Google in the driver’s seat as far as the nation’s history, identity and future is concerned, it has the power
to create whatever reality it sees fit. Increasingly, it seems the
reality it is giving the American people no longer stands up to the facts. This
power, perhaps more than any other, is enough to lead the country astray by simply
forgetting who it is and what it stands for. After all,
it only takes one generation to ‘reboot’ the national memory.
At that point, IT’S GAME OVER, YOUR COUNTRY IS HISTORY.
…
[[ My country is deeply divided and walking
like zombies toward WW3=suicide?. BUT zombies have NOT
LIFE .. they’re death. This is my country: a
Nation of death people waiting for someone to bury them.
The only ones who are alive: those Agst WW3. Can they save the NATION? .. YES, if they org Socialist
brigades Agst war-mongers in power]]
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-14/idiots-guide-destroying-your-country-six-easy-steps
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The question remains: What’s driving the equity rally?
While there was some modest
compression in the famous "jaws" chart last week, the market's
biggest paradox of 2019 continues to vex traders, investors and even algos.
Namely that, as Deutsche Bank's Parag Thatte
writes, bond yields are in line
with slowing growth, while equities are priced for a strong rebound, a theme discussed extensively
last month in "How
Can The Economy Both Be Booming And Headed For A Recession: A Quantum Explanation.")
See Chart:
If
looking purely at the fundamentals, bond yields have tracked growth indicators
like the ISM Manufacturing index closely through this cycle and have declined
in line with slowing growth.
See Chart:
Equities,
on the other hand, are pricing in a significant rebound in the ISM from under
52 currently back up to around 57….
See Chart:
Meanwhile, and more
importantly, as we first noted
back on June 9, positioning in Eurodollar rates futures has continued to
climb over the last year and is
now well beyond levels seen around the mini-rate cutting cycles of 1995 and
1998 and similar to levels seen during the European financial crisis and the
Great Financial Crisis in 2007-2009. Long
rates-positioning typically does not start to unwind until the Fed is done
easing.
See Chart:
And according to the following
breakdown of investor positioning in cross-asset futures, the stampede to get long EDs is now
the most powerful force in the entire market, as the market is now convinced
the Fed has capitulated to... the market.
See Chart:
Which brings us back to the most important question of 2019: What’s driving the equity rally?
According to Deutsche Bank,
despite the confusion, the rally has been in line with what the bank's
demand-supply framework has predicted: large sustained buybacks and rising systematic strategies positioning
have offset fund outflows, even as risks
are rising on the horizon.
See Chart:
Here is Thatte's explanation:
Our simple
framework combining, on the demand side, inflows into equities (mutual funds
and ETFs) and changes in positioning with, on the supply side, new
issuance and buybacks, has historically explained quarterly returns for the
S&P 500 quite well, and the rally has not been out of line with our
estimate of the demand-supply balance.
Furthermore, as regular readers
know very well, from a
demand-supply perspective, buybacks have been the most important driver of
S&P 500 price increases during this cycle.
Earnings have been flat
this year and are on track to be down slightly in Q2. But absent a large
decline, companies are likely to
maintain the pace of buybacks, as they did in the previous earnings slowdowns
in 2011-2012 and 2015-2016. And while concerns around leverage
continue to fester, it is worth recalling that for now at least, the bulk of buybacks are carried out by companies with very
low, not high, leverage, especially the tech sector most recently.
See Chart:
Vol
control is already at max equity allocations and have little room to buy even
if vol were to decline further while they would quickly turn to selling
equities if vol spikes.
See Chart:
Given that these managers are
relatively slow moving, markets would need a sustained vol event for
significant de-allocations. Net beta for long-short equity funds, however, remains very low, while
retail positioning indicators also remain subdued.
Finally, according to the
latest CFTC breakdown of spec accounts, net positioning in US equity futures
fell for the second week but remains near the top of its historical range. Positioning across most US indices fell except for the NASDAQ
which saw long positioning inch higher and Russell 2000 which saw short
positioning fall slightly.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/US%20equity%20futures%20positions.jpg?itok=7KjiAURm
Finally,
as JPMorgan summarizes, "as the Q2 reporting season begins,
corporate profits growth and Equity/Credit performance versus Bonds have come
to an important crossroads. Multi-asset investors and
many other readers know the following:
- US earnings growth and margins peaked in late 2018 and have been slowing since, in line with the deceleration in global activity
- consensus expectations anticipate Q2 EPS growth of -2% year-on-year, which would mark the first such contraction since the 2015-16 earnings recessions that persisted for four quarters;
- the balance of earnings pre-announcements has been the most negative since that 2015-16 earnings recession (70% negative, 19% positive, so -51% net); but
- Investor positioning is mixed, with Equity Long/Short hedge funds holding well below-average exposure but Macro, Systematic and Risk Parity funds holding above-average exposure. ETF flows mirror the conservatism of Long/Short funds, with net purchases favoring Defensives over Cyclicals this year.
And yet, even as equity
Long/Short funds hold below-average exposure to stocks but Macro, Systematic
and Risk Parity funds hold above-average longs.
See
Chart:
In
other words, the one catalyst that will push stocks higher this earnings season
will be earnings "wall of worry", with consensus now expecting a -2%
drop, while the final print, somewhere just around +1 to +2% (all on a
non-GAAP, adjusted basis) will be sufficient to send the S&P to 3,200 or
so... just as the Fed cuts rates by as much as 50bps at the end of the month.
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
“We see
that governments increasingly care
less and less about compliance, and care more and more about power...”
====
Megan Rapinoe is a National
hero.. whatever you say on her means nothing
"...You
can go to your league games, you
can support that way. You can buy
players’ jerseys, you can lend support in that way, you can tell your friends about it, you can become season ticket-holders."
====
"One of the people said they were expected to be in the
hundreds..."
====
"A
Bernie supporter and a Trump supporter are arguing about left versus right
while trapped in a room with a
tiger who’s eating them both alive..."
Since W PARETO time.. the one
who said that a legitimate welfare improvement in any society happens when a
particular change (REV) makes the market work for all, that is when the
distribution of economic welfare cannot be improved for one individual by reducing that of another. Is that possible?, of course it is in Socialist
systems and in our society it is as an aim to be rich in the fight for new Econ
& political in the US.
Pareto introduced a line in the
middle of a Cartesian table (the well known Pareto Line) a line used to solve
the problems of market imperfections inherited from neoclassical-liberal
economist. In other words, the line was used to regulate the actions of buyers
(people) and sellers (investors) to compensate for their natural tendency to foster private gains & greed instead of public needs of the Nation. If market is lived alone, the
imperfection of the market will continue, because of the existence of monopolies &
other top distorting asociations from big corp. Not even Keynes could solve
that problem. It aggravated with State expenses on the military.
Pareto middle line was also
used to get an optimum view of just prices between demand & supply . If you
open page 54 in the book “Economics: Marxist vs.
Neoclasical” from Richard Wolff and Stephen Resnick, you will see the
point T in Pareto line & also the point T in the middle
of the line A-B that shows income constrains to buy & sell. These 2
lines & the point T in the middle of them
measure the optimal solution for demand-supply & price in an Economy. How
far or close is the demand-supply & prices to the
point T measure the level of inequality in
a given market-system.
If you make another line for
income constrain above A-B, the line C-D and another T: T2, you will see that
the curve for inequality among buyers - sellers & prices are greater. It
means that the shorter the amount of buyer-seller in a Town or City .. less
chances for greater inequality. If democracy works better in small cities, the
same happen in economics: less inequality. The only
critique to Pareto line is that this line and T
doesn’t include the necessary savings to
drive Econ growth nor the interest rate that determine the amount of savings
available. Even though, the Pareto line give anyone the sense of the importance
of the middle points in economics and politics. It take us to the importance of middle entrepreneurs or investors (non speculators) in the realm of Econ &
Politics. In other essay I will show in detail the importance of the
middle classes in Economics.
…..
…..
How much do the CEOs from some of the
world’s most important companies get paid, and do these top CEOs deliver
commensurate returns to shareholders?
See Figure 1:
….
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Building a small business from inception to the point where its thriving and set up
for long-term success is no small
feat...
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"We aim to reduce inflation to
one digit by the end of this year. As we achieve this, we will achieve our
year-end interest rate target as well."
====
I hope Trump take out the
psychopath terrorists inside his Executive Gvt
After
President Trump decided not to launch an air strike against Iran in response to Iran shooting down a Global
Hawk surveillance drone, the big
question was, “Okay, now what?”
====
Macron booed during parade...
====
Shipping
companies in gulf region warned: recruited armed security personnel may lead to the possible escalation of
violence.
====
"Terrorists
vandalized the gas pipeline which extends from al-Shaer field to Ebla Gas
Factory."
====
The
apparently chivalrous motives of the US to “guarantee freedom of navigation” sounds suspiciously like a pretext for
Washington to assert crucial military control over international
oil trade...
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL
n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal
expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Erdogan: El acuerdo con Rusia sobre los S-400 es "el más importante en la historia de Turquía"
- Irán hablará con EE.UU. "ahora y en cualquier lugar" si vuelve al acuerdo nuclear y levanta las sanciones
- Informe filtrado: El exembajador británico dijo que Trump abandonó el acuerdo iraní por estar asociado a Obama
- EE.UU. comienza sus redadas contra migrantes ilegales: ¿A quiénes afectarán?
- Irán recuerda que "nunca" inició una guerra pero lanzará una repuesta "devastadora" si lo atacan
----
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
-Atomic
Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki a War Crime and a Crime Against Humanity? By Rossen Vassilev
Jr.,
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PRESS
TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
- 'US punishing Iran for respecting JCPOA'
- China hosting Africa military leaders as new alliance forms
- Qatar opens largest naval base amid US-Saudi drills
- Trump: Immigrant detention centers 'well run and clean'
- Poll gives Biden, Sanders and Warren lead over Trump
- Japan Abe's coalition set to win upper house: Polls
- ‘ICE begins rounding up migrants across US’
- Europe not ready yet to 'invest in saving JCPOA': Zarif
- 'Iran has always abided by nuclear deal commitments'
- Go back where you came from: Trump to congresswomen
- European parties to Iran deal urge dialog, end to tensions
- PROGRAMS
- 'Free Zakzaky' Campaign
- US nuclear war preparation
- US immigration controversy
- US-UK special relationship
- UAE troop withdrawal from Yemen: a sign of defeat?
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===
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