lunes, 29 de julio de 2019

ND JUL 29 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  JUL  29  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Powell better not let the world down!!

Chinese stocks trod water overnight...
UK's FTSE exploded higher as the pound plunged, Italy underperformed in Europe but the rest of the majors were flat...

And a mixed bag in US stocks too with The Dow clinging to some semblance of positivity as Small Caps and Nasdaq underperformed...
See Chart:


FANG Stocks erased Friday's gains...
See Chart:


The S&P continues to dramatically outperform the broadest US equity index - not exactly what one would hope for in a broad-based re-acceleration in growth...
See Chart:


30Y Yields erased the losses from Draghi's disappointment...
See Chart:


The DXY dollar Index rallied once again - nearing its highest since May 2017...
See Chart:


Finally, there's this... While the S&P 500 is up 20% YTD, earnings expectations for the next 24 months has slumped...
See Chart:


As 60% of companies have cut Q3 EPS expectations in recent weeks...
See Chart:
A Dimming Picture


Will traders sell the Fed news?
See Chart:
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the Treasury will sell $814 billion in debt in the current and future quarter... and it will only get worse from there.

After borrowing just $40 billion in the past, April-June period, which left the Treasury with a quarter end cash balance of $264 billion, in the current quarter, the Treasury now expects Treasury issuance to explode higher, and borrow a whopping $433 billion in net marketable debt, a massive $274 billion higher - or more than doubling - its prior forecast announced in April 2019.

The reason for this debt issuance flurry? To rebuild the cash balance back to a level of $350 billion, which is where the Treasury expects its end-of-September cash balance to be, up from just $85 billion as of the April 29 forecast.
See Chart:
US Treasure actions will likely tighten USD Liquidity in coming months


Looking ahead, during the October – December 2019 quarter, the Treasury unveiled for the first time that it expects to borrow $381 billion in new debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $410 billion with $310 billion of the new issuance going to cover financing needs.
See Tables:


In other words, the Treasury will sell $814 billion in debt in the current and future quarter... and it will only gets worse from there.

The coupons issuance is expected to raise $296bn in new cash from private investors for the August to October period. This amount, coupled with $194bn in bill issuance, will help fund an estimated $272bn of financing needs plus $200bn of cash balance increase.
See Figures 6.1


Additionally, with a July debt limit suspension, bills are expected to increase by $130bn in August, although as DB notes, the risk is that it could run higher. The Treasury's decision to gradually rebuild its cash balance will help limit some of the pressure in funding markets. Higher repo rates would make issuance of front-end coupons more expensive. For example, 2yr Treasury-OIS has widened about 8bp in July since investors began expecting the August bill supply would put upward pressure on funding rates.

What’s clear - as Bloomberg concludes  - is the backdrop puts the $15.9 trillion Treasury market on course to balloon in the next couple of years.

“By 2021, Treasury will begin to have a problem, given deficit growth, and need to increase coupon sizes,” said Margaret Kerins, global head of fixed-income strategy at BMO Capital Markets. Then again, if the current administration is still in charge, the world will likely have far more pressing issue than the eventual insolvency of the US to worry about...
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With these speculative and risk management skills accessible only to the wealthy, no wonder only the wealthy have gained purchasing power in the 21st century...

To resource depletion I would add lower returns on both capital and labor--what is known as diminishing returns: the same investment yields less output.

This decay of return on investment manifests as an S-Curve, which is a constant reference point in my work: an investment that earns a large output at first yields less and less, until the yield (output) stagnates and then declines. Increasing the investment no longer reverses the decline, and often accelerates the decline into a crash.
See Chart:
S-curve of Rapid Expansion, Stagnation & Decline by Charles Hugh Smith


With these speculative and risk management skills accessible only to the wealthy, no wonder only the wealthy have gained purchasing power in the 21st century. The result is only the wealthy can afford what was once affordable to the middle class.

The decline in the value of conventional labor and purchasing power is visible in this chart of labor's share of the national income.
See Chart:
Workers share of national Income


Ownership of speculative capital is concentrated in the top 5% of households, guaranteeing that speculative gains from asset bubbles are also concentrated in the top 5%-- roughly 6 million households, with the majority of the gains concentrated in the top few hundred thousand households.
See Chart:


Outsized gains are now only available to the few with the skills and experience required to gamble high-risk assets successfully, and this is becoming more difficult; even the professional class of money managers are increasingly unable to beat passive index funds.

The top 5% are riding high now that central banks have inflated stupendous bubbles in stocks, housing and other assets, but these gains are speculative. These gains are often viewed as permanent entitlements (i.e. bubbles never deflate), but if history is any guide, those holding speculative gains as if they were a form of savings are in for a rude awakening in the next few years.
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Central bankers, in their desperation, are playing a dangerous game.
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At market peaks – everyone’s a “Genius.”

See Chart:
Investor Psychology Cycle
See more interesting charts at:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


"If The Fed gets this wrong, I think that they think if they make a mistake here, The Fed could be gone..."
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"While I am grateful that the perpetrator has been caught, I am deeply sorry for what has happened," said Richard D. Fairbank, Chairman and CEO.
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It is entirely possible that the Democrats and their allied media outlets handed Trump a re-election in 2020with their nonstop fixation on a fact-free conspiracy theory that was doomed to failure....
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Here we’ve another story-tell in favor of Trump.  Not evidence to assume that people inside Dems party will vote Trump… There are instead many chances that the PEOPLE FRONT supporting E-Warren include most of Dems .. and more chances even if Sanders decline her candidacy in favor of E-W, so there is chances for 2 radical Women against Trump-Hillary alliance. Of course there is a chance for some bureaucrat-parasites inside the Dems Party to support Trump.. They will be uncovered  & the people inside the party will abandon them.  All RU-gate served the purpose of putting in the trash-can all assumed progressive in the Dems party. There is not “progressive” people inside dems Party. Most of them had being poisoned by money from the corrupt-pedo- Hillary. They will favor Trump, but not the common democrat.  Check polls : votes for Trump are going down. Trump & Hillary mafias will be defeated.
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The dream of nuclear fusion has long been out-of-reach, but now, just this week, the “world’s largest nuclear fusion experiment” has made a major breakthrough.
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Science on destruction is advancing.. what about science for Peace & N-dismt
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"maybe after she’s visited Somalia for a while, she might come back and appreciate America more..."
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Rand Paul in the business of racism.. I couldn’t imagine it
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The recent seismic activity in the state of California has taken a strange turn...
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CA & S-Fco are waiting for huge earthquake.. people is living.. houses r empty
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


"HK Riot Police fired bullet & tear gas directly at persons and indoor that made in US. I am calling US Gov for the suspension of crowd control equipment exports to HK, prevent human rights abuses,"
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"We are few, a small country, we are very humble, and here it is likely that the US Marines enter." 
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US intention is stupid dream.. IF landed (RU missiles will destroy any plane with them).. there is not chances for US Marines to return alive.. they will face well armed civilian battalions… The latino solidarity-retaliation is unexpected.. US embassies & Comp will be bombed.. The whole south Reg will be ignited.  The US won’t get the oil expected to stole.. they will get bullets.  
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Closer military ties being discussed as US noose tightens around Iranian oil shipping.
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US+UK DID IT… NOW COMES the other side: RU ALLIES. UK wanted war: get it
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“We expect them to be more active in buying Iranian oil.”
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

Mund: Magnates Wk: Contener a Irán? No, a Trump  Robert Fisk
Peru: mina Tía María  Etica rentista y espíritu extractivista  E G
España:  Gob de coalición en vía muerta  ¿Y ahora qué?  Jaime P
ECON:  Daños del fracking en Estados Unidos  Hedelberto López
Econ :  El problema económico es la política  Francisco Louçã
Merco-S-UE: Desacuerdo con el medioambiente  Vanessa Dourado 
Pto Rico:   Nación en lucha  Carlos R. Alicea
Guatemala:   Un nuevo aprendiz de dictador  Kajkoj Maximo
ARG: dueños del pan:  El lobby y peligros del trigo transgénico  Darío A
Chile   Imagen y política   Danilo Billiard
 España:  La falsa izquierda  José López
US:  La huelga de los trabajadores de Amazon  Joe DeManuelle-Hall
Cuba:  Último Jueves  Román de la Campa
COL: asesinos: Monsanto nos enferma y Bayer nos medica  P Nariño
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ALAI ORG

Pto RICO:  Puerto Rico en llamas    Atilio Boron  
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

Michael Hudson   The Coming Savings Writedowns
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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