Nov 30 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Comparing charts of US Econ debacle:
Nov 29 vs Nov 30
If title-content and Charts don’t match ( or have been adulterated)
we have to blame the Furer and the footmen-neo-nazis who work for him. If there
is not adulteration, then I can use the data to correlated with Econ indexes..
to see what is coming. I plan to do the same in geo-politics. In case of
adulteration I will find other reliable sources for Econ & Polits… All can
be changed overnight and we need reliable data.. I hope we can say Merry
Christmas each other.
NOV 29
The last 24 hours or so have been headline-heavy for traders
as every "Trade", "Trump", "G20", or
"Fed" note sparks chaos across a now uncorrelated markets that are
hypersensitive - but critical levels were obvious targets today:
- Dow/S&P at critical technical levels (key moving averages and YTD levels)
- 10Y Treasury Yield below 3.00% intraday
- WTI Crude below $50 intraday
For now the moves are not
life-threatening...
But the gap risk into this weekend's tape-bomb turmoil has prompted short-term VIX to be bid despite surging stocks...
See Chart:
Overnight saw weakness in US
futures too - and crappy data and a cash market open along with
China trade hope headlines prompted a quick panic buy, a fade on Navarro news, a big pump after Fed Minutes, then a fade into the close....
See Chart:
Trannies underperformed on the cash side but all the
major faded into the close after pumping green post-Fed
Minutes...but they all ended red with a
notably ugly close...
See Chart:
This
chart correspond to the above content… intentional adulteration? I don’t know… but it dislocate the whole article..
In short: not reliable source
…
But, notably, in the US, Stocks were
the only asset-class to move post-Fed Minutes as Gold, Stocks, and Bonds
all went nowhere...
See Chart:
One more
chart not related to the title-content …
que desgracia: I lost my time
Treasury yields tumbled overnight (after going nowhere amid yesterday's surge
in stocks), then v-shape-recovered higher (ending the day lower in yield though)...
See Chart:
The
same: not related .. this uses price index that maybe go above..
Expectations for Fed actions next
year have collapsed to less than one rate
hike...
See Chart
There is not such a blue & green line here.. only the
red one pointing 0.2325
The Dollar Index went nowhere on the
day, oscillating around yesterday's Powell plunge lows...
See Chart:
The line
2018-11-29 to Dic 09 doesn’t exist.. What we have in picture is Nov 28-18 to Nov 29-18
(one day diff).. as mention in day Powell plunge.. Perhaps only bad written ..
or perhaps they copy something related from other title-cont.. worse adulterac
FINALLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FED BROKE
IT...
See Chart:
In
this chart FED fund are not broken, funs are up.. noy default. But when they
use the US macro-surprise index they show total disconnection betw Fed funds
& system down.. So Fed is not real broken (they gave a lot of money..
that didn’t work in the index –system) IF this is the case, the chart is valid
in an Index that they didn’t explain.
And you know what they say - you
break it, you buy it - so next comes QE?
[[ The sentence in red is correct:
they got the money, they misused & now want one more QE. As I said in other
article : the neoliberal system is a charade, is obsolete. It works only to
recycle the military build-up, also based on USD created from thin air. IF R-C
bomb FED Banks where this money is created plus the one in ISR, bye bye system.
That is why I said “pay attention to the last chart” ..it show a weak .. very
dangerous. Regarding the adulteration of data.. it’s sad, we can’t use it to
make a deep analysis ]]
…
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See now NOV 30 data
Here it is:
Trump better deliver... ??
GOOD NEWS:
US equities soared on the week,
with Nasdaq up 5.6% leading - the
best week since Dec 2011...
Trannies soared in November and thanks to the last few days
of Powell and Trade hope, stocks were rescued from another ugly month... [[ though Chart show down]]
On the day, equity moves were
dominated by optimistic headlines from Buenos Aires from both Trump and Xi
sources...
[[AHORA se pusieron
pantalones and that is good for both of them.. for us specially because we were
losing the ‘trade war’]]
See Chart:
November was all about two big
short-squeezes... yeah sure
See Chart
BUT
Goldman Sachs plunged
again today to fresh 2-year lows, erasing all post-Trump gains - worst month since Sept 2011
FANG
Stocks closed lower for the 3rd month in a row...(longest
losing streak since Feb 2016)... despite
panic-buying this last week...best week since January
Credit markets
tumbled for the 2nd month in a row - the worst 2-month drop since
Jan 2016 for HY and IG (wider for 4 straight months). IG Credit compressed 5bps this week - best week since June (and
HY CDX biggest weekly spread compression since February). [[ Bad news for speculators. Credit should go to production-investors
]]
See Chart:
[[ Les llovió crédito a baldazos y
dicen que ni se humedecieron.. that is gluttony ]]
Bonds and Stocks were bid in the
last hour today...
See Chart:
..extending their divergence
post-Powell...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-11-30_13-04-12.jpg?itok=7RUm92n3
[[ So, el mago Powell no funcionó ]]
Treasury yields tumbled in November - 10Y yields dropped
over 13bps – the biggest monthly drop since Aug 2017
See Chart:
The short-end of the UST yield curve
collapsed in November (biggest flattening since March)...7th flatter month in
the last 9 (note that the curve accelerated its flattening post 10/17 FOMC Mins
from Sept, and after the 11/08 FOMC statement)...
See Chart:
[[
So, la crisis continua:
esto no lo arregla ningún mago, tampoco 1 apretón de manos con los Chinos..
aunque esto último creo un gran alivio inmediato: distención ]]
with UST 2s5s almost inverted…
See Chart:
[
Ahora si estamos
diciendo la verdad.. había que aceptar la realid 1ro para pod dar solucion ]
The dollar index ended the month
practically unchanged (hovering at its highest since May 2017) [[ accordg to Bloomberg Dollar Index.
They believed: truth can b worse ]]
It was a serious rollercoaster ride of a week as Powell's
dovishness pummeled the dollar and pre-G20 trade
chatter seemed to spark buying...
See Chart:
Bitcoin was down for the 5th week in
a row but the 37% collapse in November is the worst month since August 2011 (Bitcoin
Cash fell 60% on the month as it forked)
With Bitcoin back below $4000 to end
the week...
See Chart
[[
Lo cierto es que la
caída del Bitcoin no mejora la situac del Dollar.. seguirá siendo una fuente
para evadir impuestos por “los financistas” speculadores. La caída del dollar
solo se soluciona con el regreso al oro y su ingreso al basket de currencies
para crear una sola divisa para intercambio mundial y para el sistema bancario.
El prob de fondo es el dispendio de USD en aparato militar, esa deuda va contra
nuestro futur ]]
…
Copper and Gold managed gains on the month, silver small
losses, but crude collapsed...
See Chart:
[[
Si hubo o no manipulación
del precio del crudo (US-Saudis-UK y some NATO allies) para debilitar o hacer
caer la Econom RU.. no lo sabemos aún. El caso es que RU y China son aliados y
el precio acordado es de 65 a USD por barril. De forma que aquí quien cae no es
RU ni el Yuan..SI los inversors del US en crudo y eso si va a estallar ]]
…
Por lo pronto el WTI collapsed to
its worst month since 2008...
See Chart WTI Crude
Finally, we note that rate-hike
expectations for 2019 have now collapsed to less than one!! just 22.25bps for
the year (The Fed is still at 3 or 4 hikes)...
See Chart:
2019 Rate- hike Expectations
[[
En Suma, el sistema
neoliberal continua su crisis: el cancer que sufre (especulacion financiera
glutonesca) ha sido aliviado con el apretón de manos con China, pero no se
puede decir que el enfermo esta saludable. Tiene cura? Posible .. si le
estirpan esa gangrena interna y eso no lo va a hacer ningun Dr ni mago alguno..
eso lo va a hacer una REV popular que retome el ejemplo que nos dejó FDR en similar circunstancia ]]
…
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"At this point, we should start considering the very real
possibility that our next world problem is likely to be Collapse of at least a
portion of the world economy..."
The Real Situation with Oil Prices
The real situation with oil prices–and in fact with
respect to commodity prices in general–is approximately like that shown in
Figure 6.
See Chart:
Oil prices began to slide, with the higher interest
rates.
See Chart: A look of Historical Oil Prices
Interest Rate Policies Affect Affordability
For example, US interest rates spiked in 1981.
See Chart:
Figure below indicates that the popping of a debt bubble (mostly relating
to US sub-prime housing) sent oil prices down in 2008. Once
interest rates were lowered through the US adoption of Quantitative Easing
(QE), oil prices rose again. They fell again, when the US discontinued QE.
See Chart:
The fact that inflation-adjusted oil prices are now much higher than they
were in the 1940s to 1960s is a sign that for oil, the contest between
diminishing returns and efficiency has basically been won by diminishing
returns for over 40 years.
See Chart:
The Oil crisis in 1970s
Oil Prices Cannot Rise Endlessly
It makes no sense for oil prices to rise
endlessly, for what is inherently growing inefficiency.
The problem with paying higher prices for what is equivalent to growing
inefficiency can be hidden for a while, if the
economy is growing rapidly enough. The
way that the growing inefficiency is hidden is by adding Debt and Complexity
(Figure 4).
See Figure 4:
…
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A synthesis?
"...before this week, I thought Chairman Powell might be
different. Not Paul Volcker different, but possibly less willing to
backstop the financial markets relative to Greenspan, Bernanke, and
Yellen."
See Chart:
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Different view?
"Did the Fed monetize the debt? Yes. Will the
Fed return its balance sheet to the $800 billion of publicly held
debt it held prior to 2008? Unequivocally, no! "
At present, the Fed's balance sheet is still
over 5x's that of 2008...Fed Chief Powell has signaled that the conclusion to
the interest rate hike cycle appears to be dead ahead, with one to two more
hikes remaining (perhaps December and March). And from there, the next economic crisis in an acutely interest rate
sensitive economy/financial system, will likely be at hand despite the
slightest and slowest set of hikes in Fed history.
But before the next chapter begins, let's
finish the overview on the current chapter, particularly
noting the moonshot in public debt (red line, chart below) and then
checking the monetization question.
See Chart:
1- Fed holdings of Treasury's (blue
line) and MBS (maroon line) versus private bank excess reserves
(black line). Since QE ended at year end 2014, Fed combined
holdings of Treasury and MBS have fallen by less than $300 billion, bank excess
reserves have fallen nearly $1.1 trillion. The
point? Bank excess reserves continue falling faster than the Fed's
balance sheet...or put otherwise, the banks are a like a sponge and the excess
reserves being wrung out faster than the Fed's QT are like an ongoing QE.
See Chart:
2- Fed balance sheet (brown line), bank excess
reserves (black line), IOER (Interest paid On private bank Excess
Reserves...blue shaded area), and monetization (amount above and beyond QE
created and that held as excess reserves by banks...yellow line). Quite noteworthy is the ongoing rise in monetization
throughout the QE and post QE periods.
See Chart:
Continue reading more Argt & charts
Now read the conclusion
Conclusion:
In the post QE era world, $1.5 trillion in
direct monetization has already slipped into the economy/financial
assets. Banks still sit on another $1.6 trillion in excess reserves
and the Fed pays them billions to neither lend nor invest those trillions. However, as the Fed has now signaled
they will soon cease raising rates, which is probably the pre-cursor of the
next set of interest rate cuts...what are these mega-banks, presently sitting
on trillions of inert dollars, to do? Perhaps the Fed will
continue to raise IOER's in an attempt to slow the release of
reserves to be more in-line with the Fed's QT? Or will the
"sponge", still with $1.6 trillion in excess reserves
(awaiting leverage) continue to be wrung out faster than the Fed's QT,
rushing of in search of assets? Of course, I don't know the
answers but I hope to at least be asking some of the right
questions. I am quite confident this is not the
cause of our problems but a coping mechanism for a terribly flawed system, as
I've described previously, HERE and HERE.
…
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-30/qe-qt-balance-sheet-monetization-did-fed-tell-truth
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“There is nothing like
price to change sentiment..."
LO
DEJAMOS PARA MANIANA
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"Mobilizations, as in
France today, are self-organized through the internet; the mass media are discredited. The
time of liberal and rightwing demagogues is passing; the bombast of Trump arouses the same disgust as ended the Obama regime."
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"In the end, Mueller should be judged by how successful he has been in satisfying his central mission.
Judged by that standard and based on what we now know, he seems to be an abysmal failure."
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"The army wanted to produce the film to show off these promising new treatments, rather than to illustrate the
psychological trauma of soldiers due to what we now recognize as Post
Traumatic Stress Disorder..."
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"The ensemble of systems
currently used against Iran, Russia and Syria constitute the most gigantic
siege system in History. These are not economic measures, but – without
any possible doubt – military actions
implemented in the economic sector..."
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"For countries tired of
being victims of the empire, those who desire a 'multipolar' world, and
those seeking to expand their own empires, however, the smell of blood is wafting through the air."
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The first
and in Goldman's view most likely outcome, is continuing on the current path of
“escalation”— tariff rates rise to 25% on all imports currently under tariff,
and tariffs are extended to remaining Chinese imports.
See Chart:
Exhibit 1: US Tariff Actions is Primarily Focused on China
See Chart:
Exhibit 2: Persistent US deficit
with China and
Exhibit 3: Sharp retrenchment in US
Manufacturing Employment
See charts:
See more at:
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US equity
futures, European and Asian stocks all dropped as nervous investors looked
ahead skeptically to a much anticipated meeting between the American and
Chinese presidents that could decide the course of the trade war.
WTI crude was dragged back under $51
a barrel, on track for the biggest monthly drop in a decade. The euro weakened after data showed inflation in the
common-currency region easing.
See Chart:
Worse than 2008
…
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"Every
Chinese student who China sends here has to go through a party and government
approval process..."
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Russian
Foreign Ministry: this "could
result in full madness"
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"May has some leverage, if she can understand it. Brussels is bust and needs money urgently.
The knock-on effects of a no deal might be unpredictable for the UK, but, and this is the point few have taken on
board, it would be catastrophic for the EU."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ECON Toussaint Romper tabú sobre deudas odiosas y su repudio
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Haití: “¿Dónde
está la plata de Petrocaribe?”
M Hernandez
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ALAI NET
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RT
EN ESPAÑOL
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El Zoom Yemen: El precio de una muerte
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
G20 Summit, Top Agenda Item: Bye-Bye American
Empire By F Cunningham
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The Long, Brutal U.S. War on Children in the
Middle East By Kathy Kelly
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US Mass Mobilizations: Wars and Financial
Plunder By James Petras
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Guardian Ups Its Vilification of Julian
Assange By Jonathan Cook
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Honduras. I Witnessed Firsthand the Violence
they Endure By Patrick
Gothman
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Trump Has Laid Bare Our Abject Cruelty to
Refugees By Sonali Kolhatkar
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
TOMORROW
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
TOMORROW
PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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