viernes, 30 de noviembre de 2018

Nov 30 18 SIT EC y POL



Nov 30 18  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Comparing charts of US Econ debacle: Nov 29 vs Nov 30

If title-content and Charts don’t match ( or have been adulterated) we have to blame the Furer and the footmen-neo-nazis who work for him. If there is not adulteration, then I can use the data to correlated with Econ indexes.. to see what is coming. I plan to do the same in geo-politics. In case of adulteration I will find other reliable sources for Econ & Polits… All can be changed overnight and we need reliable data.. I hope we can say Merry Christmas each other.

NOV 29

The last 24 hours or so have been headline-heavy for traders as every "Trade", "Trump", "G20", or "Fed" note sparks chaos across a now uncorrelated markets that are hypersensitive - but critical levels were obvious targets today:

  • Dow/S&P at critical technical levels (key moving averages and YTD levels)
  • 10Y Treasury Yield below 3.00% intraday
  • WTI Crude below $50 intraday

For now the moves are not life-threatening...
But the gap risk into this weekend's tape-bomb turmoil has prompted short-term VIX to be bid despite surging stocks...
See Chart:


Overnight saw weakness in US futures too - and crappy data and a cash market open along with China trade hope headlines prompted a quick panic buy, a fade on Navarro news, a big pump after Fed Minutes, then a fade into the close....
See Chart:


Trannies underperformed on the cash side but all the major faded into the close after pumping green post-Fed Minutes...but they all ended red with a notably ugly close...
See Chart:

This chart correspond to the above content… intentional adulteration?  I don’t know… but it dislocate the whole  article..  In short: not reliable source
But, notably, in the US, Stocks were the only asset-class to move post-Fed Minutes as Gold, Stocks, and Bonds all went nowhere...

See Chart:
One more chart not related to the title-content  … que desgracia: I lost my time


Treasury yields tumbled overnight (after going nowhere amid yesterday's surge in stocks), then v-shape-recovered higher (ending the day lower in yield though)...

See Chart:
The same: not related .. this uses price index that maybe go above..

Expectations for Fed actions next year have collapsed to less than one rate hike...

See Chart
There is not such a blue & green line here.. only the red one pointing 0.2325

The Dollar Index went nowhere on the day, oscillating around yesterday's Powell plunge lows...
See Chart:

The line 2018-11-29  to Dic 09  doesn’t exist.. What we have in picture is Nov 28-18 to Nov 29-18 (one day diff).. as mention in day Powell plunge.. Perhaps only bad written .. or perhaps they copy something related from other title-cont.. worse adulterac


FINALLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FED BROKE IT...
See Chart:

In this chart FED fund are not broken, funs are up.. noy default. But when they use the US macro-surprise index they show total disconnection betw Fed funds & system down.. So Fed is not real broken (they gave a lot of money.. that didn’t work in the index –system) IF this is the case, the chart is valid in an Index that they didn’t explain.

And you know what they say - you break it, you buy it - so next comes QE?

[[ The sentence in red is correct: they got the money, they misused & now want one more QE. As I said in other article : the neoliberal system is a charade, is obsolete. It works only to recycle the military build-up, also based on USD created from thin air. IF R-C bomb FED Banks where this money is created plus the one in ISR, bye bye system. That is why I said “pay attention to the last chart” ..it show a weak .. very dangerous. Regarding the adulteration of data.. it’s sad, we can’t use it to make a deep analysis ]]
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See now NOV 30 data

Here it is:


Trump better deliver... ??

GOOD NEWS:
US equities soared on the week, with Nasdaq up 5.6% leading - the best week since Dec 2011...

Trannies soared in November and thanks to the last few days of Powell and Trade hope, stocks were rescued from another ugly month... [[ though Chart show down]]

On the day, equity moves were dominated by optimistic headlines from Buenos Aires from both Trump and Xi sources... 

[[AHORA se pusieron pantalones and that is good for both of them.. for us specially because we were losing the ‘trade war’]]
See Chart:


November was all about two big short-squeezes...  yeah sure
See Chart

BUT
Goldman Sachs plunged again today to fresh 2-year lows, erasing all post-Trump gains - worst month since Sept 2011

FANG Stocks closed lower for the 3rd month in a row...(longest losing streak since Feb 2016)... despite panic-buying this last week...best week since January

Credit markets tumbled for the 2nd month in a row - the worst 2-month drop since Jan 2016 for HY and IG (wider for 4 straight months). IG Credit compressed 5bps this week - best week since June (and HY CDX biggest weekly spread compression since February). [[ Bad news for speculators. Credit should go to production-investors ]]

See Chart:
[[ Les llovió crédito a baldazos y dicen que ni se humedecieron.. that is gluttony  ]]


Bonds and Stocks were bid in the last hour today...
See Chart:


..extending their divergence post-Powell...
See Chart:


Treasury yields tumbled in November - 10Y yields dropped over 13bps – the biggest monthly drop since Aug 2017

See Chart:


The short-end of the UST yield curve collapsed in November (biggest flattening since March)...7th flatter month in the last 9 (note that the curve accelerated its flattening post 10/17 FOMC Mins from Sept, and after the 11/08 FOMC statement)...

See Chart:

[[ So, la crisis continua: esto no lo arregla ningún mago, tampoco 1 apretón de manos con los Chinos.. aunque esto último creo un gran alivio inmediato: distención ]]


with UST 2s5s almost inverted
See Chart:
[ Ahora si estamos diciendo la verdad.. había que aceptar la realid 1ro para pod dar solucion ]


The dollar index ended the month practically unchanged (hovering at its highest since May 2017)  [[ accordg to Bloomberg Dollar Index. They believed: truth can b worse ]]

It was a serious rollercoaster ride of a week as Powell's dovishness pummeled the dollar and pre-G20 trade chatter seemed to spark buying...

See Chart:


Bitcoin was down for the 5th week in a row but the 37% collapse in November is the worst month since August 2011 (Bitcoin Cash fell 60% on the month as it forked)
With Bitcoin back below $4000 to end the week...

See Chart

[[ Lo cierto es que la caída del Bitcoin no mejora la situac del Dollar.. seguirá siendo una fuente para evadir impuestos por “los financistas” speculadores. La caída del dollar solo se soluciona con el regreso al oro y su ingreso al basket de currencies para crear una sola divisa para intercambio mundial y para el sistema bancario. El prob de fondo es el dispendio de USD en aparato militar, esa deuda va contra nuestro futur ]]

Copper and Gold managed gains on the month, silver small losses, but crude collapsed...
See Chart:

[[ Si hubo o no manipulación del precio del crudo (US-Saudis-UK y some NATO allies) para debilitar o hacer caer la Econom RU.. no lo sabemos aún. El caso es que RU y China son aliados y el precio acordado es de 65 a USD por barril. De forma que aquí quien cae no es RU ni el Yuan..SI los inversors del US en crudo y eso si va a estallar ]]

Por lo pronto el WTI collapsed to its worst month since 2008...
See Chart WTI Crude

Finally, we note that rate-hike expectations for 2019 have now collapsed to less than one!! just 22.25bps for the year (The Fed is still at 3 or 4 hikes)...

See Chart:
2019 Rate- hike Expectations

[[ En Suma, el sistema neoliberal continua su crisis: el cancer que sufre (especulacion financiera glutonesca) ha sido aliviado con el apretón de manos con China, pero no se puede decir que el enfermo esta saludable. Tiene cura? Posible .. si le estirpan esa gangrena interna y eso no lo va a hacer ningun Dr ni mago alguno.. eso lo va a hacer una REV popular que retome el ejemplo que nos dejó FDR en similar circunstancia ]]
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"At this point, we should start considering the very real possibility that our next world problem is likely to be Collapse of at least a portion of the world economy..."
The Real Situation with Oil Prices
The real situation with oil prices–and in fact with respect to commodity prices in general–is approximately like that shown in Figure 6.
See Chart:

Oil prices began to slide, with the higher interest rates.
See Chart: A look of Historical Oil Prices

Interest Rate Policies Affect Affordability
For example, US interest rates spiked in 1981.
See Chart:

Figure below indicates that the popping of a debt bubble (mostly relating to US sub-prime housing) sent oil prices down in 2008. Once interest rates were lowered through the US adoption of Quantitative Easing (QE), oil prices rose again. They fell again, when the US discontinued QE.
See Chart:

The fact that inflation-adjusted oil prices are now much higher than they were in the 1940s to 1960s is a sign that for oil, the contest between diminishing returns and efficiency has basically been won by diminishing returns for over 40 years.
See Chart:  The Oil crisis in 1970s

Oil Prices Cannot Rise Endlessly
It makes no sense for oil prices to rise endlessly, for what is inherently growing inefficiency.
The problem with paying higher prices for what is equivalent to growing inefficiency can be hidden for a while, if the economy is growing rapidly enoughThe way that the growing inefficiency is hidden is by adding Debt and Complexity (Figure 4).
See Figure 4:
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A synthesis?

"...before this week, I thought Chairman Powell might be different. Not Paul Volcker different, but possibly less willing to backstop the financial markets relative to Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen."
See Chart:
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Different view? 

"Did the Fed monetize the debt? Yes. Will the Fed return its balance sheet to the $800 billion of publicly held debt it held prior to 2008? Unequivocally, no! "
At present, the Fed's balance sheet is still over 5x's that of 2008...Fed Chief Powell has signaled that the conclusion to the interest rate hike cycle appears to be dead ahead, with one to two more hikes remaining (perhaps December and March).  And from there, the next economic crisis in an acutely interest rate sensitive economy/financial system, will likely be at hand despite the slightest and slowest set of hikes in Fed history.
But before the next chapter begins, let's finish the overview on the current chapter, particularly noting the moonshot in public debt (red line, chart below) and then checking the monetization question.
See Chart:

 1- Fed holdings of Treasury's (blue line) and MBS (maroon line) versus private bank excess reserves (black line).  Since QE ended at year end 2014, Fed combined holdings of Treasury and MBS have fallen by less than $300 billion, bank excess reserves have fallen nearly $1.1 trillion.  The point?  Bank excess reserves continue falling faster than the Fed's balance sheet...or put otherwise, the banks are a like a sponge and the excess reserves being wrung out faster than the Fed's QT are  like an ongoing QE.
See Chart:

2- Fed balance sheet (brown line), bank excess reserves (black line), IOER (Interest paid On private bank Excess Reserves...blue shaded area), and monetization (amount above and beyond QE created and that held as excess reserves by banks...yellow line).  Quite noteworthy is the ongoing rise in monetization throughout the QE and post QE periods.
See Chart:

Continue reading more Argt & charts
Now read the conclusion
Conclusion:
In the post QE era world, $1.5 trillion in direct monetization has already slipped into the economy/financial assets.  Banks still sit on another $1.6 trillion in excess reserves and the Fed pays them billions to neither lend nor invest those trillions.  However, as the Fed has now signaled they will soon cease raising rates, which is probably the pre-cursor of the next set of interest rate cuts...what are these mega-banks, presently sitting on trillions of inert dollars, to do?  Perhaps the Fed will continue to raise IOER's in an attempt to slow the release of reserves to be more in-line with the Fed's QT?  Or will the "sponge", still with $1.6 trillion in excess reserves (awaiting leverage) continue to be wrung out faster than the Fed's QT, rushing of in search of assets?  Of course, I don't know the answers but I hope to at least be asking some of the right questions.  I am quite confident this is not the cause of our problems but a coping mechanism for a terribly flawed system, as I've described previouslyHERE and HERE.
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“There is nothing like price to change sentiment..."
                LO DEJAMOS PARA MANIANA
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



"Mobilizations, as in France today, are self-organized through the internet; the mass media are discredited. The time of liberal and rightwing demagogues is passing; the bombast of Trump arouses the same disgust as ended the Obama regime."
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"In the end, Mueller should be judged by how successful he has been in satisfying his central mission. Judged by that standard and based on what we now know, he seems to be an abysmal failure."
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"The army wanted to produce the film to show off these promising new treatments, rather than to illustrate the psychological trauma of soldiers due to what we now recognize as Post Traumatic Stress Disorder..."
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"The ensemble of systems currently used against Iran, Russia and Syria constitute the most gigantic siege system in History. These are not economic measures, but – without any possible doubt – military actions implemented in the economic sector..."
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo



"For countries tired of being victims of the empire, those who desire a 'multipolar' world, and those seeking to expand their own empires, however, the smell of blood is wafting through the air."
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The first and in Goldman's view most likely outcome, is continuing on the current path of “escalation”— tariff rates rise to 25% on all imports currently under tariff, and tariffs are extended to remaining Chinese imports.
See Chart:


Exhibit 1:  US Tariff Actions is Primarily Focused on China
See Chart:


Exhibit 2: Persistent US deficit with China and
Exhibit 3: Sharp retrenchment in US Manufacturing Employment

See charts:

See more at:
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US equity futures, European and Asian stocks all dropped as nervous investors looked ahead skeptically to a much anticipated meeting between the American and Chinese presidents that could decide the course of the trade war.

WTI crude was dragged back under $51 a barrel, on track for the biggest monthly drop in a decade. The euro weakened after data showed inflation in the common-currency region easing.

See Chart:
Worse than 2008
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"Every Chinese student who China sends here has to go through a party and government approval process..."
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Russian Foreign Ministry: this "could result in full madness"
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"May has some leverage, if she can understand it. Brussels is bust and needs money urgently. The knock-on effects of a no deal might be unpredictable for the UK, but, and this is the point few have taken on board, it would be catastrophic for the EU."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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RT SHOWS

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

PAL        ejército ISRA amenaza trabaj humanit en Gaza Yael Marom
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                La larga marcha del hambre: naufragio neoliberal  Jorge E
                La guerra contra el éxodo  Ronnie Huete
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Migra   
Entre el destierro y la migración  Guillermo Castillo
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UE          Ucrania y violación de mar territorial ruso  E Andrade
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Cuba      Salario mínimo o mínimos salarios  Ernesto Pérez
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COL        Acusar al ELN?   Carlos Meneses Reyes
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ALAI NET

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                La humanidad de abajo y la reciprocid de los iguales HG
                Un país llamado Cerdilandia   Gustavo Duch Guillot  
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                Petro: el incómodo outsider   Germán Ayala Osorio
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Urug      El estadio de las utopías   Emilio Cafassi   
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                Contexto y recurs estats destinados al sector salud  JH L
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3


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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
TOMORROW


GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies
TOMORROW


PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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