domingo, 11 de noviembre de 2018

Nov 11 18 SIT EC y POL



Nov 11 18  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

It doesn’t matter the lent you use to see our Econ.. all coincide this is going to collapse

"If bulls can’t recapture this trend line they risk falling hard off of this trend line and face a possible retest of lows (which could spark a 'W' bottom) or new lows."

Let’s first review the context of what just happened and how technicals and signals are aligning to then get a clear understanding of the battle lines for control.
Let’s firstly review this counter rally:

What this counter rally did accomplish this week is largely meet the technical target zone I outlined in Positives:

See Chart a:

Now see chart b: updated


See also Technical SetUp: $ES for the evolution of the long SetUp.
The trigger for this push higher was of course the US mid term election result. As I stated last week in Back With a Vengeance, But“:

“I think it’s fair to say that many participants are looking forward to a bullish interpretation especially if the historic script plays out, which is that the ruling party will lose the House”.

As I outlined on twitter specifically the 2016 trend line would offer resistance:

See Chart: 
And that’s precisely where we rejected on Friday


And from a technician’s point of view this was a beauty and it highlights 2 very important points: This market is acting very technically and this broken trend line is now confirmed as resistance and it is rising steeply.
And you can see it on the $SPX cash chart as well:

See Chart:


Which brings me to the bearish case: If bulls can’t recapture this trend line they risk falling hard off of this trend line and face a possible retest of lows (which could spark a “W” bottom) or new lows.
But a bearish resolution could certainly open markets up to this lower risk zone:

See Chart


The structure continues to show astonishing similarity to the 2007 top in that we had a new high on a monthly negative divergence which produced a 10% correction which fell below the monthly 5EMA. The same thing has happened here. In 2007 that drop off the new highs produced a counter rally that reconnected with the monthly 5EMA, but then failed.

And don’t forget the context of yields. Yields have not been relenting:

See Chart:

See more charts at
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"We can’t dismiss the probability that if enough investors believe the story that these ETFs are a ‘ticking bomb’, their shorting activity could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, even if their views are misguided or self-serving..."

JPM's parting words are rather ominous: while the bank dismisses the worst case scenario postulated by the bearish hedge fund manager, it also says that it "can't dismiss the very small probability that if enough investors believe the story that these ETFs are a ‘ticking bomb’, their shorting activity could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, even if their views are misguided or self-serving."

This is JPM basically saying that even if credit ETFs are ultimately delightful, innocuous products (which they aren't as August 2015 showed very clearly) they will still get annihilated if everyone believes the opposite. As for what happens if JPMorgan's complacent view is wrong - and Schwartz is right - the next time there is a financial crisis driven by a collapse in credit, don't expect the market to reopen for a long, long time.

Finally, it's worth noting which was Wall Street is leaning: as we reported earlier this week, the amount of short interest on the HYG junk bond ETF is now the highest on record as many other investors are also convinced the credit ETF day of reckoning is coming.

See Chart:
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"It has not been true for the world’s current reserve currency, the U.S. Dollar, since 1971 when president Nixon decided to unpeg the dollar from gold...Bitcoin is absolute scarcity..."

See Chart:


So what does “being backed” by something mean? Basically it’s a guarantee that the token being used will be redeemable for some other thing that have proven to keep its value over time, at a later point in time. Currencies around the world used to be redeemable for a certain amount of gold but this isn’t true for any fiat currency at this point. It has not been true for the world’s current reserve currency, the U.S. Dollar, since 1971 when president Nixon decided to unpeg the dollar from gold. Ever since that day, the value of the dollar has been backed by nothing but the good word of the Federal Reserve Bank and the U.S. government whose current president is Donald Trump.

Gold has shown to be a good store of value for around 5000 years. It is valuable because it is hard to produce more of it, period. When the price of an asset goes up, producing more of it becomes more profitable. This in turn leads more of the asset being produced, increasing the supply hence lowering the price again until an equilibrium is reached. In the case of gold, the amount of it already extracted from the ground is high in comparison to that which is still yet to be found. This means that an increased gold price does not lead to any significant increase of the total supply of gold available for sale despite the increased production efforts. It is this high stock-to-flow ratio of gold that has led it to such a good store of value over time. The demand for gold is ever changing but its supply stays relatively scarce.
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"Get used to this kind of volatility...the market decline we observed in October is only a drop in the bucket..."

And it is flashing red...

See Chart:
SOURCE:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


INDEP front inside Dems & Gops will win.  Voting for ugly (Trump) vs. voting for the worse (Hillary) is voting for crook billionaires, not democratic option. The nation won’t fall this trap

Is this the "soft" declaration for Hillary Clinton's bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination?
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"It’s a banana republic down here." -Rep. Matt Gaetz
[[ YES.. banana Chiquita.. luego vendria la grande .. You will like it! ]]
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How much closer to Detroit or Puerto Ricomust Illinois go before it reforms?
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


The prospect of a balance-of-payments crisis, in which China would struggle to pay for imports and service foreign debt, highlights the urgency with which China must begin addressing the problem of high and rising corporate and local-government debt levels.

[[ Our dollar is made from the thing air .. It won’t last forever.. days are counted.. tic tic tic... So, mal de todos.. Consuelo de tontos? ]]
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The SNB may have top-ticked Apple's stock price by selling just ahead of the October rout.
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A decade after the worst fighting overseas,five combat veterans put the Forever War and American civilian life into perspective...
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Putin said “Yes,” the chat was “good.”
               
                [[ Time to make PEACE & dismantle nukes.. then we say the same ]]
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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RT SHOWS

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos


VIENTO SUR


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FEM       Por un feminismo que no hable sólo de feminismo
                Sujeto político y estrat en el mov de mujeres   Julia Cámara
                guerra contra mujeres: ninguna exageración en USA Nada L
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Migra    No es el sueño americano, es la pesadilla  Jesus González
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Clima    ¡Demasiado tarde para ser pesimistas!   Daniel Tanuro
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                Rud Rafael MTST  “Va a haber repres y cens, también resist popular”
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Cuba      ¿Para qué transición?  Janette Habel
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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