miércoles, 14 de noviembre de 2018

Nov 14 18 SIT EC y POL



Nov 14 18  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


Dow desperately seeking support at 25,000. Beyond this land lie dragons.” - Art Cashin
Dow lost its 200DMA and back below 25,000...
See Chart:


And a roller-coaster day of crushed dreams and dashed hopes in the US too as the machines tried to revive stocks... twice... but failed... twice... (Trannies managed gains on the day, Nasdaq was the biggest loser)
See Chart:


Futures show US stocks sold during Asia session, bid during EU session into US open, then dumped into the 2pmET witching hour of margin calls - panic-bid back to unchanged... then dumped into the close...
See Chart:


The dollar fell for the 2nd day in a row (accelerating as cable rallied late on)...back in the red for the week...
See Chart:


Gold and Silver bounced back through critical price levels...
See Chart:


Finally, we note that the median US stock (as inferred from the Value Line Geometric Index) is now back to critical support - unchanged since the DotCom and Financial Crisis highs...
See Chart:
SOURCE:
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The pace at which things are changing is..shocking the experts.

#1 When economic activity is rising, demand for oil increases, and oil prices tend to go up.  But when economic activity is slowing down, demand for oil diminishes, and oil prices tend to go down.  That is why what is happening to the price of oil right now is so alarming

#2 One new poll has found that only 13 percent of Americans plan to buy a home in the next year.  That number has fallen for three quarters in a row, and it is now down by almost half over the last twelve months.

#3 As the market dries up, the inventory of unsold homes is absolutely soaringnationwide…

#4 California once had the hottest housing market in the entire nation, but now home prices in the state are plummeting like it is 2008 all over again.

#5 According to the latest Bank of America survey, global fund managers are the most bearish that they have been since the financial crisis of 2008…

#6 America’s ongoing retail apocalypse just continues to accelerate.  According to a recent Bloomberg article, things are going so poorly for some mall operators that they “handing over their keys to lenders even before leases end”

#7 Despite the eruption of a major trade war, the U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world is on pace to set a brand new all-time record in 2018.

#8 One new study discovered that 62 percent of all U.S. jobs do not currently pay enough to support a middle class lifestyle.

#9 At this point, most Americans barely have any financial cushion at all.  According to one recent survey, 58 percent of all Americans have less than $1,000 in savings.

#10 Right now, more than half of all U.S. children are living in households that receive financial assistance from the federal government.

#11 As the economy slows down, an increasing number of Americans are being forced into the streets.  More than half a million Americans are currently homeless, and that number is growing with each passing day.
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WTI slipped back to a $55 handle after crude inventories rose more than expected (up 8.79mm barrels - the most since Feb). This is the 8th weekly crude build in a row (and Gasoline stocks also rose).

Notably, WTI's plunge (growth scare and supply glut) has coincided with relative strength in gold (growth scare, safe-haven) which erased all advantages on the year as 1 ounce of gold can once again buy around 22 barrels of WTI crude...
See Chart:


For now, some have argued that Trump is winning once again...
See Chart:
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"This is persuasion, pure and simple...the president utilizes the Hive Minded’s own orthodoxies against them."
See
How to create a Socialist State?  By Saul Alinsky
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[[ Todo lo que hoy existe at the level of neoliberal Econ merece perecer.. No crees?  ]]

"There is a wall of cognitive dissonance when some in the public are confronted with this notion. They prefer to believe in a set of standard lies rather than accept that the Fed is a saboteur of our financial system. Here are those lies..."

Here are those lies, listed in no particular order...

Lie #1: The Fed Is Unaware Of The Bubbles it Creates
Mainstream economists and Fed officials alike use this lie regularly. Not once has the Board of Governors of the Fed ever been audited or punished in light of an economic crisis they created. When central bank culpability is obvious, they simply claim they had no idea the fiscal bubble was as inflated as it became. The disaster “surprised them”.

Lie #2: The Fed Is Unaware That It's Tightening Policies Cause Extreme Economic Contraction
So, if the Fed is aware when it causes a bubble, is it aware when it is popping a bubble? Absolutely. As Ben Bernanke admitted in a speech in 2002

Lie #3: The Fed Is The Center Of Establishment Power, Therefore They Need The U.S. Economy To Thrive
While it is true that the Fed is currently in charge of the dollar as the world reserve currency, the idea that the Fed is somehow indispensable to the global establishment has always bewildered me. Everything the Fed has done since its inception in 1913 has been designed to diminish the U.S. economy and erode the purchasing power of our currency. I ask, at what point has the Fed ever taken an action which did NOT result in a bubble or a bubble collapse? At what point has the U.S. economy ever improved at a fundamental level because of the Fed, rather than diminished in the wake of a fake recovery the Fed conned the public into believing in?

What else does the Fed do besides sabotage?

I believe the truth is that the Fed does not care about the U.S. economy, or even the survival of the dollar, as is obvious in their actions. The Fed is merely a puppet entity of larger institutions like the Bank for International Settlements or the International Monetary Fund. These institutions seek centralization at a global level, with a global currency system and global economic authority, as they have openly admitted to in their own publications. The U.S. economy as we know it today, and the Fed by extension, are expendable in this pursuit.

The Fed will continue on its current course no matter the cost, because there is a greater strategy in play. In fact, some elites may even welcome a shutdown of the Fed at this time because this opens the path for the death of the dollar as the world reserve currency and the introduction of a new world monetary system,while all the consequences surrounding the shift can be blamed on political chaos and coincidence.

To drive the point home, I leave readers with a revealing quote from Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, as she outlines why crisis in national economies is actually good for the IMF
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"It compares to the Volcker tightening from 1979–1981..."
See Chart:
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"Without that central bank support and transitioning off the fiscal stimulus, our long-term outlook for investment grade is definitely on the more bearish side over the last two to three years."
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


Although Stigliz no longer is lavishing praise on Venezuelan socialism, he hardly is silent about his belief that only expanded state power can “save” the U.S. economy from self-destruction...

Ever since winning the Nobel Memorial Prize in “Economic Science” in 2001, Joseph Stiglitz has been a one-man advocacy band for growth of the state. After 9/11, for example, he called for the formation of a federal agency to provide security for airline passengers, which he claimed would send a “signal” for quality. (Stiglitz won his prize for “proving” that free markets are “inefficient” and always result in less-than-optimal outcomes because of asymmetric information. Only government in the hands of Really Smart People like Stiglitz can direct production and exchange consistently to efficient and “just” results.)

Like so many others who have claimed capitalism is destroying the middle class, Stiglitz turns to the policies created during the Great Depression and after World War II for salvation, seeing the time from the 1930s to the late 1950s as a supposed golden era of prosperity. He writes:
After the New Deal of the 1930s, American inequality went into decline. By the 1950s inequality had receded to such an extent that another Nobel laureate in economics, Simon Kuznets, formulated what came to be called Kuznets's law. In the early stages of development, as some parts of a country seize new opportunities, inequalities grow, he postulated; in the later stages, they shrink. The theory long fit the data—but then, around the early 1980s, the trend abruptly reversed.
To reverse this trend of rising inequality – and rising poverty – Stiglitz calls for a return to the Depression-era policies of high marginal taxes and using the regulatory structure to recreate the financial and business cartels built by New Deal regulations that dominated American production, finance, and transportation at that time. Indeed, apart from the anti-discrimination laws that now are part of the modern legal landscape, Stiglitz believes that the only hope for our future is to return to the past:

…we need more progressive taxation and high-quality federally funded public education, including affordable access to universities for all, no ruinous loans required. We need modern competition laws to deal with the problems posed by 21st-century market power and stronger enforcement of the laws we do have. We need labor laws that protect workers and their rights to unionize. We need corporate governance laws that curb exorbitant salaries bestowed on chief executives, and we need stronger financial regulations that will prevent banks from engaging in the exploitative practices that have become their hallmark. We need better enforcement of antidiscrimination laws: it is unconscionable that women and minorities get paid a mere fraction of what their white male counterparts receive. We also need more sensible inheritance laws that will reduce the intergenerational transmission of advantage and disadvantage.

Challenging Stiglitz’s Logic
Stiglitz hardly is the only modern economist that wants the American economy to be restructured to resemble how it looked in 1939. Paul Krugman many times called for a “New New Deal” and actually claims that the U.S. middle class didn’t even exist until President Franklin D. Roosevelt created it with his policies.

In reading the Stiglitz “we need” rant, it is clear that he sees the economy as both mechanistic and deterministic.
Capital will have increasing returns because, well, capital has increasing returns, which means that over time, capital will increase the incomes of its owners and everyone else will become poorer. In fact, as one goes through the entire article, one can conclude that he believes, like Marx, that a market system is internally unstable and that it always will implode because a few people will see their incomes increase, but only at the expense of the masses, who will see their incomes decrease.
Indeed, if one follows Stiglitz to his logical conclusions, one would have to assume that the U.S. economy is a trap of exploitation and misery for American workers, as they toil longer hours and watch their standard of living slip away. He writes:

At the time of the Civil War, the market value of the slaves in the South was approximately half of the region's total wealth, including the value of the land and the physical capital—the factories and equipment. The wealth of at least this part of this nation was not based on industry, innovation and commerce but rather on exploitation. Today we have replaced this open exploitation with more insidious forms, which have intensified since the Reagan-Thatcher revolution of the 1980s. This exploitation…is largely to blame for the escalating inequality in the U.S.

Read more at
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Nearby resident: "Every person on our street has had cancer"
[[ Imagine the pollution from WW3 ]]
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"This is crazy!"
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


It's not what OPEC wants to hear.
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Why is there a convenient platform at the top of the fence?
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Even the US is now "swimming naked"...

Right now we have the Four Horsemen: the four drivers of the global economy. They are:
  • the quantity of money, which is falling;
  • the price of money, which is rising;
  • the price of energy,which is a tax on consumers and is rising;
  • and globalization/productivity, which is falling.
So, if you look at the economy as a black box, I really don’t know what happens inside of it. But I can observe what goes into the black box: it's these four things.

Globalization / productivity, we know that's all about Trump, trade war and the likes. It's not exactly improving; it's actually worsening.

As for the quantity of money, a lot of people argue with me that the Central Banks are still expanding their balance sheets, but the fact of the matter is that the QT in terms of the U.S has been reducing the Federal Reserve balance sheet. And we have a stealth reduction of the balance sheet in terms of the Bank of Japan. The EBC would love to cut and is publicly committed to doing so. The Bank of England is doing its first hike. So the quantity of money is falling.

As for the price of money, I think Powell is really in the mold of Volcker. He's a practical guy, and what he's decided to do is pretty much just to hike interest rates until the market collapses. That would indicate that pausing from this tightness is probably 5-10% below the recent low that we saw in the stock markets. If we don’t get to that level again, he's going to continue the hiking.
So you almost have a self-feeding process by which, ultimately, the stock market will have to collapse because behind the scene, the pragmatic way that Powell does his policy really means the interest rate is going up and, hence, you haven't seen your move to safety yet in terms of Treasurys.
And then, the final one, which is often ignored, the price of energy. Before the dramatic drop over the past few weeks, the price of energy was up at 15 to 20 percent this year in terms of the oil price input. But, if you add to the fallout from the emerging market selloff and the currency-negative impacts, you will have prices on petrol in energy-intensive countries like India, Indonesia, China where the prices are up somewhere between 50 and 100 percent. Imagine how much of the purse that expensive energy takes away from these developing economies in terms of the purchasing power.

So I think the full force of these Four Horsement that drive the world economy is now going to slow economic growth dramatically after this recent boost from the twin tailwinds of the tax cut and repatriation of capital. So even the U.S. now seems to be swimming naked.

Listen interview with Steen Jakobsen 
SOURCE:
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DEBATE:

Bear markets and steep corrections reveal the bad actors...
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” – Warren Buffett
The recent market schmeissing has uncovered these market Fugazzis. I have in the past (and in today’s opening missive) hit these bad actors hard because of the damage they deliver. But, like Warren Buffett, I prefer to criticize by category and not by the individual. We should learn from this reveal in order to better navigate the market’s noise going forward:

Corporate managements who never met an outlook they didn’t like. In my more than four decades I have interviewed hundreds of managements and observed, in the business media, thousands more. 

Business media moderators who have no skin in the game and are quick to criticize when an investment professional makes an investor boner – reminding me of a wonderful (and oft repeated) quote by Mickey Mantle, “I never knew the game of baseball was so easy until I entered the broadcasting booth.” 

* “Talking heads”guests who parade in the media – and too often make smug observations and confident market forecasts.

The “special sauce” guys who have a special formula to beat Mr. Market. The most venomous are the “unusual call activity” crowd – a constant diet of which will end most up in the poor house. Most have little skin in the game.

* “Long only” investors who rationalize poor performance in a steep market decline to their “charter” and take credit for good performance in a broad market advance. (They will reappear in the next up cycle – ignore them and remember ‘what they have learned from history is that they haven’t learned from history.’)
* The hedge fund community that is again, despite a sky-high fee structure, underperforming the S&P Index.
Leveraged players who dramatically underperform when the tide goes out and exhibit superior returns when the tide comes in. (They mostly will be entirely wiped out and typically will never reappear – as they have likely changed careers.)
* Market strategists who parade in the business media, like self professed investment icons, when the going is good – only to disappear at the end/close of every Bull Market when the seas get rough. (They, too, will return in the next cycle but hide your children and your portfolios from them.) 
Bottom Line
“When we ask for advice we are looking for an accomplice.” – Saul Bellow
Continue reading at:
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While energy credits are outperforming this year and have reverted to pre-2015 levels, the equities have not kept pace... who's right?
See Chart:
SEE More chart at

SOURCE: 
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"We are at $250 billion [in tariffs] now; we can more than double that- VP Pence
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos


RT EN ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3


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U.S. Soldiers Died for Nothing in WW I   By Jacob G. Hornberger
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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