Nuestro sistema politico es absoleto pues recrea el poder economico y politico de trasnacionales y socios internos quienes impiden el desarrollo sostenido del pais. La nueva democracia tiene que armarse a partir de organizaciones de base en movimiento. Imposible seguir recreando el endeudamiento, el pillaje y la corrupcion. Urge reemplazar el presidencialismo por parlamentarismo emergido del poder local y regional. Desde aqui impulsaremos debate y movimiento de bases por una NUEVA DEMOCRACIA
domingo, 18 de noviembre de 2018
Nov 18 18 SIT EC y POL
Nov 18 18SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGEECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"Oh dear. Whatever happened to the record
earnings growth story that was supposed to
propel markets to ever new highs? ..."
Company after company is being taken out back and shot.
Retail, banks, tech, the causality list and their reasons keep expanding.
$NVDA, $WMT, $GE, $AAPL, $GS, I could keep going. Long
forgotten are the cheery headlines of $1 trillion market cap companies. Things
are ugly out there.
THE FED CRYING continued
unabated last week with Ray Dalio joining the chorus seemingly
advocating the Fed make asset prices the primary mandate as opposed to the
economy. With real rates still negative the absurdity
of the parade reveals an ugly truth: Bears have been right all along.
The entire bull market was based on cheap money and the
eventual unwind will be miserable as corporate, government and consumer debt
levels keep rising to ever higher levels and the Fed’s historic slow
rate rising attempts have already seem to have hit the proverbial wall. Tax cuts have not paid for themselves, deficits are
ballooning, and earnings growth comparisons will lag in 2019, global
growth is slowing and the temporary 2018 spike in US
GDP is already settling back into a 2.x% range with no permanent upward
kick in sight.
So here we
are with 6 weeks left in the year and the bull case has markedly shifted from earnings
to 3 principle drivers of hope:
A. Get the Fed to stop its rate hike in December.
B. Seasonality/Buybacks/Markups
C. Get the president to cave and get a trade deal with China before the
end for year.
On the latter point:The running joke in markets is now the
predictability with which teasing positive China trade headlines are juicing
futures at least for a few minutes following downside action in markets.
And there
is the recipe really for the bull case into December: China trade deal
resolution, perhaps the Fed pausing its rate hike, and then seasonality can
kick in with full force as funds are badly lagging performance this year.
Without any such positive triggers bulls risk tax loss
selling and a break of major bull trends which are still hanging on for dear
life at this precise moment in time:
There are 2 weeks
left to save these trends again this month. Speaking for bulls is
traditional positive seasonality during low volume Thanksgiving (except Monday)
and then month end markups. However political event risk is also
hanging over these markets and will throughout the rest of the year.
As we remain in range it’s then critical for participants to
keep an eye on levels and signals.
While the 2680 gap was part of our risk profile $SPX dipped
11 handles lower below the .236 fib on an intra-day basis before ripping higher
closing the week back above the .382 fib.
…
Fake low
and go? Possible, but the pattern is now very shaky and possibly invalidated.
I say possibly, because the pattern still conceivably exists
on other charts:
GE’s
terrifying recent credit
meltdownmay be the initial pinprick for the
corporate debt bubble, but make
no mistake – it is not an isolated incident...
"It’s extraordinary that we seem to
need reminding of the depths to which our collective despair sank in the
dark days of 2007-2009, but all that lovely
printed money courtesy of the world’s central banks has clearly dulled the
senses (just as it was intended to do)..."
----
----
USDOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"...this would constitute a deadly blow to press freedoms,
and arguably a greater leap in the
direction of Orwellian dystopia than the Patriot Act. It also proves once
again that Julian Assange was
completely right..."
"... we think that asset
markets must leave the warm embrace of the abundant liquidity central
banks have provided since the global financial crisis. Like it or not,
volatility is here to stay."
"Climate change/global warming is not the answer to everything on our planet"
[[ Who?.. I guess
Russian, China & Iran .. the usual suspects.. Are they the arsonists? How
much they charge?Is that a tit for tat
to our ‘sanctions’. IF SO, it isn’t OK? What is the difference? In terms of enviro-polution we did more, in term of life we
kill more]]
----
----
US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"Try as we did, we couldn’t come
to an agreement on certain trade issues. The gulf was too big. The US and China
could not see eye to eye... I am not too surprised at the outcome."
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario