miércoles, 14 de noviembre de 2018

Nov 13 18 SIT EC y POL



Nov 13 18  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

[[ If this Econ carnage would’ve happened before Midterm.. Trump would’ve lost the senate.. He was right when he celebrate his victory (not impeachment) .. but not when he do it in public & with confrontational language.. He poisoned a political context that could’ve been used to build a real balance bet the hopes of Capital-labor and bet both political parties.. He can still make peace with Dems by putting the issue Peace & New Deals as FDR did it in similar context. Since is the labor & middle classes (plus small enterprerurial class who think beyond WS’ especulators) the most affected by current neoliberal collapse.. (unemploy-people will take streets & change the polit-conflict bet parties toward a class conflict against the neolib-system) this conflict has to be addressed in the right way and as soon as possible. The un-employ is going to start soon as bankruptcies accelerate.. No way to stop it with the military.. many of them will take side with their nation and a civil war will start. States will split from the Fed-system and bye bye to the Union. To avoid this happens Trump have only two options. Option 1: Resign to the Presidency now to come back as candidate for the Presid Election.. arguing that Dems animosity is destroying the Union required during Econ collapse. Before renouncing he must decree: 1- the taxing of the rich to protect the unemployed. 2- the Zero debt for all graduates at universities in the US. 3- des-privatized the health system by assuring the best health for all.  ment is gona start soon the issue protection to them is more important that helping billonair-especulators who will refuse a tax on them to save the nation. Option 2: Dictatorship. If he don’t resign he will be impeached (that is for sure).. But since he is an elected Presid he can use his power to create an auto-cup as happened with many Presidents of the world  (Turkey is an example right now: Erdogan is a type of fascist dictator similar to Fujimory in Peru and others successful Govts in the world). With an auto Cup d’etat Trump can change the composition of the “deep-state” and dismantle the power of a sector of the military indust complex who benefit from manufacturing weapons & for making wars abroad. This is the spain-column supporting all billonaires or plutocrats who live only from speculation in Wall Street, not from productive investment. Then the Nation will be able to change this obsolete system via implementing New Deals that all State-nation of the FED agreed.  There is no other choice. Bill Clinton choice has no space in the current context. To get out from impeachment (Monica Lewinsky case) he invented an enemy in Europe (Yugoslavia) and he bombed and  destroyed that nation. He became a national hero for doing so and his fault was forgotten and  forgiven. No way to do it now since it carries implicit the chance for WW3. If happens it won’t be winners, mutual assured destruction is what we will get. RU & China will hit the US directly plus 3 other fortress of NATO. So, better to solve our contradiction inside and asap. ]] 

Let’s see the Economy now


There will be blood..
Chatter of a commodity fund liquidation did nothing to help what everyone hoped would be an excited dip-buying opportunity in stocks today...

[[ Notice that charts on China did not correspond to the title ..  Intentional?  Just xenophobia ]]

China stocks extended Monday's buying panic with CHINEXT now up over 5% in two days...
See Chart:


Quite a significant China outperformance in the last week...
See Chart:


IN US: With everyone primed for a bounce (pre-market futures signaled it after China's exuberance and trade headlines), it didn't happen...
See Chart:


IN US: The liquidation in crude certainly did not help stocks...
See Chart:


The Dow managed to cling on above its 200DMA, but all the other major US indices are below that key technical level...
See Chart:


Goldman fell for the 3rd day in a row - the worst 3-day drop since 2010...
See Chart:


AAPL tumbled back below its 200DMA...
See Chart:


GE stock had its best day in 9 years today... but GE bonds did not...
See Chart:


FANG Stocks bounced off the opening drop but ended unch...
See Chart:


Having taken the day off to remember Veterans yesterday, bond traders were back and they were buying... The belly of the curve outperformed...
See Chart:


10Y Yield tumbled to two-week lows...non-stop slide since The Fed
See Chart:


Inflation Breakevens collapsed further, catching down to WTI...
See Chart:


The dollar drifted lower on the day...breaking a 3-day winning streak
See Chart:


Spot the odd one out in commodity-land...
See Chart:


Offshore Yuan squeezed higher on the day after tagging 6.97 growth and headlines of big banks dumping dollars (under orders of PBOC)...
See Chart:
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In the latest SLOOS, banks told the Fed they would interpret a curve inversion scenario "as signaling a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook and as likely being followed by a deterioration in the quality of their existing loan portfolio."

See Chart:
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"The selloff in GE is not an isolated event. More investment grade credits to follow. The slide and collapse in investment grade debt has begun." - Guggenheim's Scott Minerd

GE - a top 15 issuer in both the US and EU indices - was recently downgraded into the BBB bucket, and as recently as September it was trading 20bps inside BBB- bonds. However they crossed over at the end of that month and now trade up to 50bps wide to the average of the weakest notch of IG.

See Chart:
See More Charts at
….
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Read this:
"Recent events tell me the 'great reset' could be closer than I thought just a few months ago."

Is debt good or bad? The answer is “Yes.”
Debt is future spending pulled forward in time. It lets you buy something now for which you otherwise don’t have cash yet.

Now I’m having second thoughts. Recent events tell me the reckoning could be closer than I thought just a few months ago.
Debt Doesn’t Fuel Growth Anymore

Central banks enable debt because they think it will generate economic growth. Sometimes it does. The problem is they create debt with little regard for how it will be used.

That’s how we get artificial booms and subsequent busts. We are told not to worry about absolute debt levels so long as the economy is growing in line with them.

That makes sense. A country with a larger GDP can carry more debt. But that is increasingly not what is happening.

Let me give you two data points.
If you are used to using debt to stimulate growth, and debt loses its capacity to do so, what happens next? You guessed it: The brilliant powers-that-be add even more debt.

Here’s How Much Debt We Actually Have
 Centuries of history show that every prior debt run-up eventually took its toll on the economy. There is always a Day of Reckoning.

The US economy is so huge and powerful that our current $24.5 trillion government debt (including state and local) could easily grow to $40 trillion before we meet that day. We are one recession away from having a $30 trillion U.S. government debt total.

This Won’t End Well
I am trying to imagine a scenario where this ends in something less than chaos and crisis. The best I can conceive is a decade-long (and possibly more) stagnation while the debt gets liquidated.

But realistically, that won’t happen because debtors won’t let it. And they outnumber lenders. For this reason, something like “the Great Reset” will happen first.

The rational course would be to delay the inevitable as long as possible. Yet in the U.S. we’re rushing it.
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"IT'S COMING..."   [..unemployment is coming ]  MUST READ1


It’s coming. And don’t kid yourself into believing it won’t...

We just had this phase in 2018 on the heels of tax cuts and the official unemployment rate dropping to 3.7% with record earnings and over 20% profit growth thanks to tax cuts.

But then something happens at the end of each cycle. Corporations have a harder and harder time keeping pace with the high expectations. It’s called peak profit growth. One can squeeze only so much profit growth out of each cycle. And now, in this cycle, the artificially induced profit growth results in 2018 are not sustainable into 2019.

So what, you might ask, will companies do to maximize their profit growth in a challenging comparison environment, an environment where they are facing higher costs and margin pressures due to a myriad of reasons? Think rising rates, trade wars, difficulty to find new talent, etc.

You already know the answer: It’s called rightsizing, operational efficiency and a number of other clever guises designed to avoid the term layoffs. And no it doesn’t suddenly happen in size. It starts small, but it begins nevertheless. You just have to look for the signs.

And you get the talk of “oh how difficult it is, but we have no choice” blah blah blah: We just have to do it right? Can’t afford those salaries of these people right?

Bullshit. These 350 people are losing their jobs in the face of this:
“Starbucks is raising its dividend and increasing its share buyback program to return $10 billion more to shareholders by 2020 than previously promised, CEO Kevin Johnson told analysts on a conference call Thursday.
In November, the company announced it would return $15 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends through fiscal year 2020″.
Right. Oh yea, the writing is on the wall and it’s already beginning.

For reference we are here in the unemployment versus market cycle structure:
See Charts:

Now you may choose to believe we stay at 3.7% unemployment forever or you may not, but history suggests a reversion to the historic mean is coming.

But here’s the kicker: With the advance of AI, automation and robotics in recent years, and more technological improvement to come, when the next downcycle begins in earnest, corporations will not only have more incentive than ever to automate, they will have technological options at their disposable like never before.

Technology after all is improving rapidly and I’m sure you’ve seen some of the more recent impressive examples in the headlines.. (blocked):

There are a ton of studies on this from the scary to the don’t worry. I humbly submit that nobody knows how this will play out, but I do know one thing: Corporations will do what’s best for them and their primary purpose is not to guarantee you a job.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



"It is going to feed the stagflationary fire that will be burning. This is going to be negative for the dollar. This is going to be positive for gold..."

Listen this video:
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"I’m not holding my breathThe Fed is always the last to know..."

The U.S. is now getting a triple shot of tightening in the form of higher rates, reduced money supply and a stronger dollar. At this rate, we may be in a recession sometime next year unless the Fed reverses course. We’ll see if the Fed wakes up to the danger before it’s too late.
I’m not holding my breath. The Fed is always the last to know.
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The Census Bureau has released new data that strengthens the case for calling the current generation of American children 'The Welfare Generation'...
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo



"If and when a former Rothschild banker starts telling us what the words in our respective languages actually mean, beware..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos


REBELION

PAL        Lo que quiere Gaza   Haidar Eid
                Cómo resolver catást del agua contam de Gaza?  Sandy Tolan
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Mund    Los crecientes peligros de guerra   Domenico Losurdo
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COL        Petro en el limbo:   Armando Novoa
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ALC        El capital y la democracia descartable  Santiago Mayor
                Paraguay   5 desaparecidos tras un ataque paramilitar
                Perú    García y Vizcarra  César Zelada
                Nicaragua  EEUU rearma su estrategia contra Nicar  Á Renzi
                Cuba  Cuba nunca estará sola  Rafael Andrés Álvarez
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Ecua       Ecuador: golpe blando y persecución  Rafael Correa
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ALAI NET

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis inside US


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..



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