Nov 13 18 SIT EC
y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social +
Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
[[ If this Econ carnage would’ve happened before
Midterm.. Trump would’ve lost the senate.. He was right when he celebrate his
victory (not impeachment) .. but not when he do it in public & with
confrontational language.. He poisoned a political context that could’ve been
used to build a real balance bet the hopes of Capital-labor and bet both
political parties.. He can still make peace with Dems by putting the issue
Peace & New Deals as FDR did it in similar context. Since is the labor
& middle classes (plus small enterprerurial class who think beyond WS’
especulators) the most affected by current neoliberal collapse..
(unemploy-people will take streets & change the polit-conflict bet parties
toward a class conflict against the neolib-system) this conflict has to be
addressed in the right way and as soon as possible. The un-employ is going to
start soon as bankruptcies accelerate.. No way to stop it with the military..
many of them will take side with their nation and a civil war will start.
States will split from the Fed-system and bye bye to the Union. To avoid
this happens Trump have only two options. Option
1: Resign to the Presidency now to come back as
candidate for the Presid Election.. arguing that Dems animosity is destroying
the Union required during Econ collapse. Before renouncing he must decree: 1-
the taxing of the rich to protect the unemployed. 2- the Zero debt for all
graduates at universities in the US. 3- des-privatized the health system by
assuring the best health for all. ment
is gona start soon the issue protection to them is more important that helping
billonair-especulators who will refuse a tax on them to save the nation. Option
2: Dictatorship. If he don’t resign he will be
impeached (that is for sure).. But since he is an elected Presid he can use his
power to create an auto-cup as happened with many Presidents of the
world (Turkey is an example right now:
Erdogan is a type of fascist dictator similar to Fujimory in Peru and others
successful Govts in the world). With an auto Cup d’etat Trump can change the
composition of the “deep-state” and dismantle the power of a sector of the
military indust complex who benefit from manufacturing weapons & for making
wars abroad. This is the spain-column supporting all billonaires or plutocrats who
live only from speculation in Wall Street, not from productive investment. Then
the Nation will be able to change this obsolete system via implementing New
Deals that all State-nation of the FED agreed.
There is no other choice. Bill Clinton choice has no space in the
current context. To get out from impeachment (Monica Lewinsky case) he invented
an enemy in Europe (Yugoslavia) and he bombed and destroyed that nation. He became a national
hero for doing so and his fault was forgotten and forgiven. No way to do it now since it carries
implicit the chance for WW3. If happens it won’t be winners, mutual assured
destruction is what we will get. RU & China will hit the US directly plus 3
other fortress of NATO. So, better to solve our contradiction inside and asap.
]]
Let’s see the Economy now
There will be blood..
Chatter of a commodity fund liquidation did nothing to
help what everyone hoped would be an excited dip-buying opportunity in stocks
today...
[[ Notice that charts on China did not correspond
to the title .. Intentional? Just xenophobia ]]
China stocks extended Monday's buying panic with CHINEXT
now up over 5% in two days...
See Chart:
Quite a significant China outperformance in the last
week...
See Chart:
IN US: With everyone primed for a bounce
(pre-market futures signaled it after China's exuberance and trade headlines),
it didn't happen...
See Chart:
IN US: The liquidation in crude certainly
did not help stocks...
See Chart:
The Dow managed to cling on above its 200DMA, but all
the other major US indices are below that key
technical level...
See Chart:
Goldman fell for the 3rd day in a row - the worst 3-day
drop since 2010...
See Chart:
AAPL tumbled back below its 200DMA...
See Chart:
GE stock had its best day in 9 years today... but GE
bonds did not...
See Chart:
FANG Stocks bounced off the opening drop but ended unch...
See Chart:
Having taken the day off to remember Veterans yesterday, bond
traders were back and they were buying... The belly of the curve outperformed...
See Chart:
10Y Yield tumbled to two-week lows...non-stop slide
since The Fed
See Chart:
Inflation Breakevens collapsed further, catching down to
WTI...
See Chart:
The dollar drifted lower on the day...breaking a 3-day
winning streak
See Chart:
Spot the odd one out in commodity-land...
See Chart:
Offshore Yuan squeezed higher on the day after tagging
6.97 growth and headlines of big banks dumping dollars
(under orders of PBOC)...
See Chart:
…
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In the latest SLOOS, banks
told the Fed they would interpret a curve inversion scenario "as signaling
a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook and as likely being
followed by a deterioration in the quality of their existing loan
portfolio."
See Chart:
…
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"The selloff in GE is not an isolated event. More
investment grade credits to follow. The slide and collapse in investment grade debt has begun."
- Guggenheim's Scott Minerd
GE - a top 15 issuer in both the US and EU indices - was recently
downgraded into the BBB bucket, and as recently as September it was trading
20bps inside BBB- bonds. However they crossed over at the end of that
month and now trade
up to 50bps wide to the average of the weakest notch of IG.
See Chart:
See More Charts at
….
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Read this:
"Recent
events tell me the 'great reset'
could be closer than I thought just a few months ago."
Is debt good or bad? The answer is “Yes.”
Debt is future spending pulled forward
in time. It lets you buy something now for which you otherwise don’t have
cash yet.
Now I’m
having second thoughts. Recent events tell me the
reckoning could be closer than I thought just a few months ago.
Debt
Doesn’t Fuel Growth Anymore
Central banks enable debt because they
think it will generate economic growth. Sometimes it does. The problem is they
create debt with little regard for how it will be used.
That’s how we get artificial booms and
subsequent busts. We are told not to worry about absolute debt levels so long
as the economy is growing in line with them.
That makes sense. A country with a larger GDP can carry more debt.
But that is increasingly not what is happening.
Let me give
you two data points.
If you are
used to using debt to stimulate growth, and debt loses its capacity to do so,
what happens next? You guessed it: The brilliant
powers-that-be add even more debt.
Here’s
How Much Debt We Actually Have
Centuries of history show that every prior debt run-up
eventually took its toll on the economy. There is always a
Day of Reckoning.
The US economy is so huge and powerful
that our current $24.5 trillion government debt
(including state and local) could easily grow to $40 trillion before we meet
that day. We are one recession away from having a $30 trillion U.S. government
debt total.
This
Won’t End Well
I am trying to imagine a scenario where this ends in something
less than chaos and crisis. The best I can conceive is a decade-long (and
possibly more) stagnation while the debt gets liquidated.
But realistically, that won’t happen because debtors won’t let it.
And they outnumber lenders. For this reason, something like “the Great Reset” will
happen first.
The
rational course would be to delay the inevitable as long as possible. Yet in
the U.S. we’re rushing it.
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"IT'S COMING..."
[..unemployment is coming ] MUST READ1
It’s coming. And don’t kid yourself into believing it won’t...
We just had this phase in 2018 on the
heels of tax cuts and the official unemployment rate dropping to 3.7% with
record earnings and over 20% profit growth thanks to tax cuts.
But
then something happens at the end of each cycle. Corporations
have a harder and harder time keeping pace with the high expectations. It’s called peak profit growth. One can squeeze only
so much profit growth out of each cycle. And now, in
this cycle, the artificially induced profit growth results in 2018 are not
sustainable into 2019.
So what, you might
ask, will companies do to maximize their profit growth
in a challenging comparison environment, an environment where they are facing
higher costs and margin pressures due to a myriad of reasons? Think rising
rates, trade wars, difficulty to find new talent, etc.
You already know the answer: It’s
called rightsizing, operational efficiency and a number of other clever guises designed
to avoid the term layoffs. And no it doesn’t suddenly happen in size. It starts small, but it
begins nevertheless. You just have to look for the signs.
And you get the talk of “oh how difficult it is, but we have no choice” blah blah blah: We just have to do it
right? Can’t afford those salaries of these people right?
“Starbucks
is raising its dividend and increasing its share buyback program to return $10
billion more to shareholders by 2020 than previously promised, CEO Kevin
Johnson told analysts on a conference call Thursday.
In
November, the company announced it would return $15 billion to shareholders
through buybacks and dividends through fiscal year 2020″.
Right. Oh yea, the writing is on the wall and it’s already beginning.
For reference we are here in
the unemployment versus market cycle structure:
See Charts:
Now you may choose to believe we stay
at 3.7% unemployment forever or you may not, but history suggests a reversion to the historic mean is coming.
But here’s the kicker: With the
advance of AI, automation and robotics in recent years, and more technological
improvement to come, when the next downcycle begins in earnest, corporations
will not only have more incentive than ever to automate, they will have
technological options at their disposable like never before.
Technology after all is improving
rapidly and I’m sure you’ve seen some of the more recent impressive examples in
the headlines.. (blocked):
There are a ton of studies on this from the scary
to the don’t worry. I humbly submit that nobody knows how this will play out, but I do know one thing: Corporations will do what’s best for them and their primary
purpose is not to guarantee you a job.
…
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US DOMESTIC
POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds &
corruption. Urge cambio
"It
is going to feed the stagflationary
fire that will be burning. This is going to be negative for the
dollar. This is going to be
positive for gold..."
Listen this video:
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"I’m not holding my breath. The Fed is always the last to know..."
The
U.S. is now getting a triple shot of tightening in the form of higher rates,
reduced money supply and a stronger dollar. At this
rate, we may be in a recession sometime next year unless the Fed reverses
course. We’ll see if the Fed wakes up to the danger before it’s too late.
I’m not holding my breath. The Fed is
always the last to know.
…
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The Census Bureau has
released new data that strengthens
the case for calling the current generation of American children 'The Welfare Generation'...
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"If
and when a former Rothschild banker starts telling us what the words in our
respective languages actually mean, beware..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus
on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI NET
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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Keiser Report "US está enfermo y cada vez
resulta más difícil curarlo"
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that
leads to more business-wars from US-NATO
allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on
Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis inside US
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by
Iranian observers..
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