Nov 16 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over.
Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
China
had an exuberant week (as the rest of the world limped lower) led by Shenzhen
and CHINEXT (the small cap/tech indices)...
See Chart:
Nvidia made the
headlines as the crypto-collapse hit demand and sent the stock from being up 50% YTD to down 15% YTD in a few weeks...
See Chart:
Credit
markets crashed notably this week (impacted by GE's collapse)... with IG
spreads blowing out 10bps - the biggest weekly spread widening since Feb 2016...
See Chart:
Signaling
more pain to come for stocks..
See Chart:
Treasuries
were well bid all week - especially in the belly...
See Chart:
Notably
UST 5s 30s spread…the curve steepened notably this week...
See Chart:
BUT 10Y Yields broke through the 50DMA...
See Chart:
and 5Y
yields plunge 15bps on the week - the biggest drop since April 2017 (after
worst week since September 2017) - blowing back below 3.00% to close at 2-month
low yields...
See Chart:
And
before we leave the rates markets, it is notable that the market is rapidly
losing faith in The Fed - 2019 rate-hike expectations (red) have collapsed, and
2020 and 2021 are now expected flat or a modest rate cut...
See Chart:
The
Dollar Index broke below a key level this week - 97...
See Chart:
Just
as credit is flashing red, so are commodity markets - most notably, Lumber...
See Chart:
Finally
and, just in case you were banking on buybacks bringing your bullish portfolio
back to life, consider this...
See Chart:
$800BN spent on buybacks year-to-date, and the
index is... unchanged!
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SOURCE:
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DOES
ANY OF THIS MAKE SENSE?
Does any of
this make sense? No. But
it's so darn profitable to the oligarchy, it's difficult to escape debt-serfdom and
tax-donkey servitude.
Lets’ check the
points that Hugh Smith make here (go to Source below for
explanations)
1-Debt
has this peculiar characteristic: it has to be paid back with interest
2- One might reckon that people would be
cautious about paying two or three times more for something by using debt
rather than cash.
3- The higher education debt scam is classic TINA: there is no
alternative to borrowing a small fortune to buy a (mostly worthless) diploma,
unless you favor living in a cardboard box the rest of your life. .. TINA drives the trillion-dollar deficits of
the US government as well.
4- Tragically, for a lot of low-income working
poor households, there really isn't any alternative to high-interest debt.
5- Equally
tragically, fiscal prudence, i.e. the avoidance of debt and the exultation of
saving, is not taught in our educational system.
6- What's not taught in our educational
system--perhaps because it would undermine Consumption Funded by Debt?)
--is opportunity cost. ..
This opportunity cost separates those with decent earnings and
little productive wealth and those who earned the same income but acquired real
wealth.
7-
Pre-easy-credit, people couldn't borrow money for the simple reason they were
poor credit risks.
8- With public
debt, the collateral is the tax-donkey's obligation to pay taxes, and with
private-sector debt, the borrower's future income.
9-
The debtor who has no collateral other than his/her future income has a trick
card to play: bankruptcy.
Does any of
this make sense? No. But it's so darn profitable to the
oligarchy, it's difficult to escape debt-serfdom and tax-donkey servitude.
Remember: every dollar of debt is an expense to the borrower but a
source of income to the lender. Keep that in mind as you study these charts of student loan debt and
federal debt.
Chart 1
Chart 2
Future
income devoted to paying interest is money that can't be invested productively. On a national
scale, that guarantees falling productivity, soaring
wealth inequality and eventually, widespread impoverishment.
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One
looming threat to President Trump's booming economy besides tariffs,
is the...
There is a reason to believe
that consumer spending is starting to stall from the previous two quarters
(Q3 and Q2) as consumer debt servicing payments
increase. ..
For Q4 2018, the Refinitiv Same-Store Sales Index is expected to print around 3.0%, well
below the 4.9% from Q2, a sign that the consumer might have topped out
before the holiday rush.
President Trump's deepening trade war
with China has been a significant concern
for retailers, and are increasingly being mentioned on
earnings calls. Retailers started reporting Q3 2018 earnings last
month, and more than 25 of them have warned about
tariffs.
Refinitiv shows that retailers are much more bearish this year compared to last
year for Q4, as some have mentioned consumer weakness and trade wars
could produce a weak holiday season.
To date, there are nine
negative retail EPS preannouncements and only one positive
See Chart:
Exhibit 1: The
Refinitiv Same Store Sales Index: 2017 -2018
Exhibit 2: The Refinitiv Same Store Sales Sector Indices: 2016
-2018
See Chart:
Everything looked great in
the report except furniture and home furnishings -0.3%, and food service
and retail places -0.2%.
See Graph:
Finally, the YoY Control
Group Retail Sales printed 4.5% - the weakest since April, and perhaps gives
some credibility to Refinitiv's claim that retailers could expect a weak
holiday season.
See Chart:
The data above shows that consumers might not be able to save the economy, expected to
enter a slowdown in early 2019.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-15/new-report-warns-retailers-could-see-weak-holiday-sales
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[[ Mas claro que el agua: NO HAY FORMA de que el
Imperio se levante de esta debacle.. ni el resto de la comunidad financiera lo
quiere así.. Nos quedamos solos .. El recurso del WW3 solo empeoraría las cosas:
1ro porque él UN está listo a evitarlo en una Asamblea General y 2do, porque si
es soboteada.. y si el US ataca, la respuesta RU-China y aliados seria
automática y todos sabemos que en esta última guerra quien pierde es la
humanidad entera ]]
Trump told
the world he doesn't need its generosity to either fund the US deficit or prop
up stocks, and according to recent data, the world has taken up Trump on his
dare, and has been actively liquidating US securities.
Earlier this week, DoubleLine's Jeff
Gundlach warned that as a result of rising hedging costs, US Treasury bonds have become increasingly unattractive to
foreign buyers. This can be seen in the chart below which shows the
yield on the 10Y US TSY un-hedged, and also hedged into Yen and Euros. In the latter two cases, the yield went from over 3%, to
negative as a result of the gaping rate differential between the Fed and ECB or
BOJ.
See Chart:
This is also why, as the next chart from Gundlach showed, foreign
holdings of US Treasurys have been declining in recent years, and dropped to
just over 36% as a percentage of total holdings, the lowest in over
a decade, as domestic holdings of US paper have risen to just shy of 50%, and
near all time highs.
See Chart:
Which brings us to today's latest monthly
TIC data which showed that, as Gundlach would expect, the
holdings of the two largest foreign US creditors, China and Japan, declined to
multi year low.
As shown in the chart below, China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to the lowest level
since mid-2017 as the world’s second-largest economy sold US reserves to
stabilize the yuan which has been depreciating in recent months due to the
ongoing trade war.
See Chart:
Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasuries
declined for a fourth month to $1.151 trillion in
September, from $1.165 trillion in August, a $14 billion decline. Despite
the drop, China remained the biggest foreign creditor to the U.S., followed by Japan whose Treasury holdings also
dropped by $2 billion to $1.028 trillion, the lowest
since 2011.
See Chart:
Going down the list, while Russia's Treasury liquidation was well documented in June and
July, two new aggressive sellers of US paper emerged in the latest data:
France, whose
Treasury holdings declined from $118.4BN to $97.7BN...
See Chart:
Finally, away
from US Treasuries, and looking at total flows, foreigners added a total of
$7.5BN in long-term US securities, led by nearly $30BN in Agencies..
What was perhaps more notable is that in September, foreigners sold another $16.9BN in US stocks,
the 5th consecutive month of selling, matching a record long stretch of foreign
sales of US equities, and one during which official and private foreign
investors sold a total of $102 billion over the past 5 months, a record high.
See Chart:
The bottom line: Trump
told the world he doesn't need its generosity to either fund the US deficit or
prop up stocks, and according to recent data, the world has taken up
Trump on his dare, and has been actively liquidating US
securities.
Source: TIC
...
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete;
it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Hillary is putting in trouble the Sec
System that protect her.. from time to time
"who decided to create the system?"
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran
search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
In one single Chart:
Trump told the world he doesn't
need its generosity to either fund the US deficit or prop up stocks, and
according to recent data, the world has taken up Trump on his dare, and has
been actively liquidating US securities.
See Chart:
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“Treat their incessant
optimism, in the future, with skepticism. Watch what they do not what they say.”
LO DEJAMOS PARA EL SABADO
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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[[ Those who plan to kill him are against world system’ freedoms &
HR. How many US embassies are going to
be burned if happens?.. Nobody Knows. ]]
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[[ This is the
other place in which WW3 could star ]]
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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OPIN Para qué
filosofía en tiempos de fascismo? Antoni Aguiló
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ALAI NET
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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Solo los nazis sentenciaban
en ausencia a sus victimas políticas
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En este teatro del
desencanto ambos se necesitan como uña y mugre
El crudo no cuenta
en este lio: es la compra-venta de armas lo que los une
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Si el Penta se auto-disuelve
o es disuelto no existirán esas “amenazas” inventadas
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis:
neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
U.S. Optimistic It Will Soon Prosecute WikiLeaks
Founder Julian Assange
By Aruna Viswanatha & Ryan Dube
By Aruna Viswanatha & Ryan Dube
“If wars can be started by Lies. Peace
can be started by truth” Julian Assange
La verdad jamás podrá ser encarcelada ni asesinada. Quien lo intente
creara muchos Wikileaks
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Trump Quietly Orders Elimination of Assange By Eric Zuesse
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US, Britain Push Yemen Ceasefire as Tactic to
Defeat Houthis By Finian
Cunningham
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The Twisted Logic of the Jewish ‘Historic
Right’ to Israel By Shlomo
Sand
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China: A New Philosophy of Economics By Peter Koenig
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Thanking Vets For Their “Service” – Why? By The Saker
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The Reclamation of George W. Bush Is an
American Tragedy By Maj.
Danny Sjursen
Yo creo que le debieron dar también el Premio Novel de la Paz en honor a
sus gen……s
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
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Robert Fantina Democrats
and the Mid-Term Elections
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Nick Pemberton The
Revolution’s Here, Please Excuse Me While I Laugh
Leiste los NEW DEALS de FDR.. El creo una Rev que duro casi 50 años
(1935-85). Laugh excused
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that
leads to more business-wars from US-NATO
allies
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Money,
Silver, Gold and Cars: ISIS Fighters Received “Bonuses” for Using Chemical
Weapons – Report By South Front,
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DEMOCRACY NOW
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by
Iranian observers..
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