JAN 28
18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Over
the span of 2000-2016, the amount of money spent on food by the average
American household increased from $5,158 to $7,203, which is
a 39.6% increase in spending.
Despite this, as Visual
Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, for
most of the U.S. population, food actually makes up a decreasing portion of
their household spending mix because of rising incomes over time. Just 13.1% of
income was spent on food by the average household in 2016, making it an
important cost as both housing and transportation.
That said, fluctuations in food
prices can still make a major impact on the population. For lower income
households, food makes up a much higher percentage of incomes at 32.6% – and how individual foods change in price can
make a big difference at the dinner table.
Over the span of 2000-2016, the
amount of money spent on food by the average American household increased from
$5,158 to $7,203, which is a 39.6% increase in spending...
FLUCTUATING GROCERY PRICES
Today’s infographic comes
from TitleMax,
and it uses data from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics to show the
prices for 30 common grocery staples over the last decade.
See
charts:
See
also a table summarizing all those changes at the end of this Article:
Courtesy of: Visual
Capitalist
We’ve summarized the statistics
in the following table to show the grocery prices in 2007 and 2017, as well as
the total percentage change.
…
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According to Citi, by mid-2019, equities are facing a nearly 50% drop to keep
pace with the upcoming central bank asset shrinkage.
See image:
And, what is more important, is
that investors appear to have noticed the repricing across credit. This is visible in two places: on one hand while
inflows into broader credit have remained generally strong, there has been a
surprisingly sharp and persistent outflow from US high yield funds in recent
weeks. These outflows from junk bond funds have
occurred against a backdrop of rising UST yields, which recently hit 2.67%, the
highest since 2014, another key risk factor to credit investors.
But while similar acute
outflows have yet to be observed across the rest of the credit space, and
especially among investment grade bonds, JPM
points out that the continued outflows from HY and some early signs of waning
interest in HG bonds in the ETF space in the US has also been accompanied by
sharp increases in short interest ratios in LQD (Figure 13), the largest US
investment grade bond ETF...
See
chart :
This
"intervention", as well as the recent retail capitulation
which has seen retail investors unleashed across stock markets, buying at a
pace not seen since just before both the 1987 and 2008 crash, helps explain why stocks have - for now - de-correlated from
central bank balance sheets. This is shown in the final chart
below, also from Citi.
See
chart:
And
while the blue line and the black line above have decoupled, it is only a
matter of time before stocks notice the same things that are spooking bonds,
and credit in general, and get reacquainted with gravity.
What happens next? Well, if the Citi correlation extrapolation is
accurate, and historically it has been, it would imply that by mid-2019, equities are facing a nearly 50% drop to
keep up with central bank asset shrinkage. Which
is why it is safe to say that this is one time when the bulls will be praying
that correlation is as far from causation as statistically possible.
…
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"The further the central banks intervene to force populations whose
growth is decelerating (and resultant potential economic growth) to overshoot, the longer the duration and severity of
the resultant ultimate rebalancing."
Growth
isn't about how many, but
about how many more. So,
no argument that the world population of 7.4 billion is huge...but if we check under the hood we
will find the much vaunted growth is not what we are being sold.
If
we just isolate the annual change in the 0 to 55 year global population (minus Afrca...
xplained HERE), we see annual population growth has decelerated by 77% or we are
adding 49 million fewer 0 to 55yr/olds annually than we did during peak
growth in 1988. Within a decade, the world under 55yr/old
population (excluding Africa) will cease growing and begin an unknown period of
depopulation.
In
fact, the forward
estimates are based on the UN's more "optimistic" medium
variant...the reality will almost certainly be lower. Meanwhile, annual global
GDP growth in dollar terms has been wildly gyrating from record growth to unprecedented record declines (chart
below).
See chart:
The same data below but in this time in
percentage terms. Annual percentage growth of the 0-55yr/old
global population (excluding Africa) has decelerated from +2% annually to just
+0.26% in 2018. Likewise, the annual change in global GDP in % terms
is trending lower highs and lower lows.
See
Chart:
Due to decelerating organic growth
among populations of potential consumers, the synthetic version of growth
has been substituted. Interest
rate cuts and debt to fuel new capacity for a decelerating (and soon to be
declining population) and debt to fuel consumer consumption.
The result, as the chart below shows, is
disproportionate growth of debt versus actual economic growth.
SEE CHART:
The further the central banks intervene to force populations whose
growth is decelerating (and resultant potential economic growth)
to overshoot, the longer the duration and severity of the
resultant ultimate rebalancing.
One of
the great many flaws of modern day, central bank driven economics is the
idea that economic growth is all about increasing capacity or production.
Simply put, it
doesn't matter how many widgets or how efficiently you can make them if
there is a decelerating growth and soon an outright declining
quantity of potential buyers on the other end.
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“Complacency in the
markets is a key risk: Valuations are at unprecedented levels. THE
PROBABILITY THAT WE’LL ENCOUNTER AN UNFORESEEN CRISIS ON THE NEXT PART OF OUR
JOURNEY IS HIGH...
In
Davos, the confab of billionaires, world leaders, and the media have gathered
for the annual confab in which the fate of the world is determined.
NOT ALL THE VIEWS FROM DAVOS
WERE OF GLOBAL TRANQUILITY AND PEACE.
Barclays CEO Jes Staley, warned
that financial markets remind him somewhat of what was seen before the 2008
crash.
Of course, with interest rates
around the globe at historic lows, companies have binged on cheap borrowing,
easy credit terms and “seller’s market” as investor chase
yield.
See chart:
You will notice that each major
market peak in history was accompanied by high-leverage ratios. The biggest risk, as noted last week, is a significant rise in
interest rates the “pricks”the debt-bubble.
See Chart below:
In the source below you will find other interesting charts that explain todays’
debacle
….
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge
cambiarlo
Are
there monsters that the Fed can’t protect us from? (Spoiler Alert: Yes!)
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"Furthermore, the department has redacted from some work-related text
messages portions that were purely personal"
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WORLD
ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
On Friday a Middle East regional CNN network reported that American Sniper Chris Kyle had been killed while embedded
with US-backed Kurdish forces in Syria by invading Turkish troops, and the
story went viral.
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars:
its profiteers US-NATO
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UK Defen Sec Accuses Russia of Planning to Kill
“Thousands and Thousands” of Britons By R S Tit for Tat =
bulling by bulling?... OR Just stupid news.
IF Nobody is scare on it.
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty
business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..
Bravo Angelina! You were and
continue be my hero. You went beyond stereotypes on
gender & sex .. you show the world that women can do many things better
than men.. you broken ‘machismo’ biases in many movies. You should lead
a big Nation Mov for PEACE and Nuke dismantle & you will be our next anti-war
Senator- or President .. if you start now. In geo-polit, educat & Sociology
issues I’ll be your free advisor, if you give me such an honor.
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Maybe This Will Work: US Rushing New
‘Training’ Units to Afghan Front War is an idiocy
run by Idiots
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Russian Presid, Israeli Prime Minist to Hold
Talks in Moscow Gypsies no se sacan la suerte, se estud
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for
alternatives to neoliberalism to break with Empire:
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Keiser
Report "Obama
es una fantasÃa y Trump es la vida real"
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by
Iranian observers..
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