JAN 11
18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
[[ What indecent manipulation of INFO to our Nation:
Note in this art: that the order
in paragraphs has been altered and statement
inside paragraphs too ]]
[[
Here the valid order]] :
In
short: we now have confirmation of what we have long suspected, namely that both retail investors - such as the wildly famous
former Target manager Seth Golden, and hedge funds, are now net
short vol to an unprecedented degree.
So what
does this mean?
First, recall what JPM's head quant, Marko Kolanovic, warned
last June, namely that there is now
a risk of "catastrophic losses" amid various vol-selling strategies,
should the VIX move by a mere 5 vols, from 10 to 15
…
Toward the end of the third quarter, as the VIX was
plumbing new all time lows - a trend that has largely persisted ever since - we
reported that in the latest striking development involving volatility derivative
products, the total
outstanding Vega across the entire levered and inverse VIX ETP space had
reached $375 million, an all time high. See chart 15…
This, as Bank of America showed at the time, was the
result of the highest positioning in levered long VIX ETPs since July 2016
offset by a record high exposure across short ETPs. See chart 14…
Fast forward a few months to the first week of the new year, when Goldman's new derivatives strategist Rocky Fishman,
who until recently toiled at Deutsche, followed up this observation and
highlights that, in an acceleration of the move we first observed last September, "the net position of VIX ETPs has
become short over the past few weeks, for only the second time in their eight
year history."
See chart 1 . .. (this is the one
showed at the beginning in the introd to
this art) = order inverted
Exhibit 1: VIX ETPs
have a short net volatity position (in
2018 is similar to 2016)
This odd finding - namely that VIX ETPs are now net short vega as shown
in the chart above, prompted the Goldman strategist to ask glibly "Should we worry?"
Seach
for: Golman Sachs: Derivatives Research VIX Positioning : VIX ETPs are
neo net short vega. Should be worry?
Putting this in context, just a 3-point spike in
the VIX would force some $110 million vega to buy. This goes to
Fishman's original question whether "we should be
worried" because it represents double the highest ever seen before 2017 and "would be around 60% of daily 1st/2nd VIX futures
volume, and around 30% of open interest."
When volatility
rises, both inverse and levered long VIX ETP issuers
are economically driven to buy VIX futures: the inverse product issuers doing
so to reduce a short position that has become too large, and the levered
issuers to supplement a long position that has not risen as quickly as the ETP
itself.
Of course, that "air pocket" scenario is just the waterfall
analysis that Morgan Stanley put together back in July when it previewed what
could happen to the VIX ETP sector, and the market in general, "If The Vix Goes Bananas."
See graph: Equity Equivalent supply if S&P 500 falls by.. see graph..
Barclays conclusion back in September was troubling:
[O]n balance the
total demand from VIX ETP managers is likely to be higher relative to a few
weeks ago and is a significant source of risk
especially during a large fundamentally driven shock. The only caveat we would
keep in mind is that the volume in VIX futures is likely to cross $1Bn vega
during a shock scenario.
IN SHORT: we
now have confirmation of what we have long suspected, namely that both retail investors - such as the wildly famous
former Target manager Seth Golden, and hedge funds,
are now net short vol to an unprecedented degree,
something also shown in the chart below.
See 2 small charts together..
So what does this mean?
First, recall what JPM's head quant, Marko Kolanovic, warned
last June, namely that there is now a risk of "catastrophic losses" amid various vol-selling strategies, should the VIX move by a
mere 5 vols, from 10 to 15:
…
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Hide the risk of econ debacle: ostrich policy: hide
you head in a hole & show your ass
"the
integrity of the CDS market - which
is predicated on the expectation that companies seek to avoid payment default,
not to accept illicit payments to default intentionally - will be irreparably damaged"
See introductory chart…
Back in November, Bloomberg first profiled a fascinating story
involving Hovnaian, whose credit derivatives swaps were soaring as if New Jersey’s largest homebuilder was about to default,
even as its stocks and bonds show no signs of panic.
See Chart: Hovnaian
Swaps Signal Default Risk
…
…
"Ignoring a rigged system .. that
is only getting worse won't benefit the financial services industry..."
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What caused the biggest
jump [ into another] Financial Crisis?
What caused the biggest jump since the Financial
Crisis?
See inroductory chart and
more charts here: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-11/chap-11-bankruptcies-spike-107-year-ago
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Walmart is closing dozens of Sam's
Club stores nationwide, on the same day it announced it was raising the
starting hourly wages to $11/hour, expanding employee benefits and offering
worker bonuses of up to $1000.
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Bitcoin and blockchain are likely to dominate discussions at
Davos this month. But there will be a far deeper deliberation about the wider disruptive
impact of technology on banks...
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge
cambiarlo
"The US military/security complex has taken another step toward
Armageddon. The
Pentagon has prepared a nuclear posture
review (NPR) that gives the OK to development of smaller “useable” nuclear
weapons and permits their use in response to a non-nuclear attack."
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WORLD
ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
"Every Administration goes through an episode
of promising to deal with Chinese trade interventions and ends up
with a watered down, vague agreement. China's pre-emptive action suggests that this time the level of worry
is different..."
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
US politics crisis: Trump
captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars:
its profiteers US-NATO
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty
business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..
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'Sh*t hole' Countries vs 'Sh*t hole' President : How many migrants has been caused by his
wars?
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FACT: British people
don’t like Trump .. teme la verguenza de ser maisvamente repudiado
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South, North Korea May Run in Joint
Bobsleigh, Ice Hockey Teams in Olympics Good sign of Union
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Russian Foreign Ministry: US Claims of
Fighting Terrorists in Syria Unconvincing CIA lose credibility
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for
alternatives to neoliberalism to break with Empire:
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MX -Nueva crisis humanitaria en Chiapas: En plena disputa
territorial
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Eso no
dijeron los nativos de pilgims: emigr llegados de Europa.. lo dijo el Pres más
.. del USA
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Es cierto y lo resumo así:
1ro :
Quedo probado que la disciplina y orden imperial basado en el chantaje nuclear
y dispendio militar es obsoleto. Eso evidencia quiebra no solo ética,
tecnológica e institucional a nivel global, sino además muestra la debacle de
una hegemonía imperial que solo dejo mucha destrucción y muerte.
2do:
Quedo probado que la auto-defensa contra la agresión imperial depende no solo
de la unidad interna del pueblo, también de acciones concretas que exigen
valentía y disposición de entrega de la
vida en una causa nacional-popular y mundial: la derrota del imperio. Soy
americano pero detesto el poder de los grandes billonarios que hoy destruyen el
mundo con su gula neoliberal. Por eso admiro la proeza del pueblo norcoreano que no
se arrodillo frente al agresor más vil de la historia mundial.
3ro:
quedo abierto el camino para hacer realidad la utopía de la unidad de las 2
Coreas: Se acaba de dar el 1er paso al anunciarse que las 2 Coreas presentaran
un solo equipo en la olimpiadas de Invierno. Los deportes fueron y serán
siempre el mejor evento de Paz y unidad de las naciones del mundo entero. Esto si
une y mucho más que las Res de la ONU y
las declaraciones huecas de la diplomacia de geo-políticos. Todos los pueblos
mundo estamos listos para celebrar la victoria de la unidad de ambas Coreas, la
del Norte y Sur. El 1er paso ha sido
dado y el resto consiste en hacer camino al andar. Caminaremos juntos pues esta
victoria será la más grande derrota del imperio.
Hugo-Adan. enero 12 del 2018
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by
Iranian observers..
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