JAN 24
18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
GLOBAL CONTEXT:
"The danger is that when a society becomes too accustomed to
instability and conflict, they become complacent in terms of their own security and their own
freedoms... That great global slap in the face is
coming, make no mistake..."
Subtitles:
Introduction
U.S. Debt Ceiling And The Government Shutdown Battle
Syria Back On The Table
North Korea And The Olympic-Sized Target
The U.S. Dollar Continues Its Rapid Decline
Growing Accustomed To The Weird
…
----
----
"I firmly believe that negative swap spreads were an anomaly from
the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, and monitoring their return to 'normal' levels
offers some important clues as to the development of the economic recovery."
I have long been banging on the table that shorting
swaps was a better way to position a portfolio for rising long term yields - A
Better Way to Short the Bond Market? I don’t want to repeat the same
argument again, but let’s have a quick recap. When the Great Financial Crisis
hit, most market participants would have assumed that swap spreads would have
exploded higher, much like they did during the Long-Term-Capital-Crisis. In the past, worries about credit risk from the banks that
issue swaps meant that investors bid up the price of risk-free US Treasuries,
sending the spread soaring higher.
In the initial days of the Great Financial Crisis,
US swap spreads did in fact start to widen. But then,
much to almost everyone’s surprise, swap spreads collapsed below zero. It made no sense. Why would investors ever enter
into a swap arrangement with a bank that has credit risk instead of just buying
US Treasuries? Especially in those days when no one trusted the financial
soundness of banks.
Well, the answer was that it had more to do with
financial system’s plumbing than a logical decision by markets.
Swap spreads dove because the supply of bank balance
sheet was dramatically curtailed. Basically, banks,
faced with more regulations and increased capital requirements, withdrew their
participation in the swap market. The demand for swaps fell but not as
quickly as the supply. The end result was that this mismatch of demand-supply
meant that the previously unthinkable occurred, and swap spreads went negative.
What would have usually been arbitraged away by
proprietary trading desks at banks and other financial institutions was left to
persist for years.
Therefore it is no surprise that banks withdrew from
extending their balance sheet for swap trading. With
higher capital requirements and more scrutiny from regulators, most banks made
the decision it wasn’t worth it.
Which brings me to my
theory as to how swap spreads are a great indicator as to banks’ willingness to
expand the money supply through private sector credit creation.
Since the GFC, all of that monetary velocity change has been to the
downside. Liquidity
has been stuffed into the system, and instead of it being taken up and lent
into the real economy, it has either sat inert on banks’ balance sheets or been
used for financial engineering. This is why both velocity and swap spreads have
plunged together.
We are now only 14 basis points from zero at the
long end of the curve. Since Trump’s election, we have rallied 40 basis points.
What does that mean for
financial markets? Well, more credit creation means more US dollars. Big time. If this trend continues, IT WILL MEAN AN EVEN LOWER US
DOLLAR AND BOND MARKET.
….
----
----
The war of words (China) and deeds (US) is hotting up once
again tonight, sending the Dollar Index careening back to new cycle lows...
ANOTHER
leg down in the relentless dollar dump...
Perhaps more notable is the fact that the world’s
most overheated market has at last succumbed to gravity.
…
----
----
"With all the
talk about the bubble market, people are once again saying Donald Trump is a
fool, he should never have taken credit for a Dow that’s about to collapse...you have to remember, they’re
politicians; they may be dishonest but they’re not stupid. Let’s try a scenario to see what they’re thinking..."
But aren’t rising rates bad? The Fed
model raises rates to clamp down on the economy. Money will leave the stock
market and go to bonds. Housing prices will fall as the monthly cost increases. Cats and Dogs living together….EXCEPT IT ISN’T TRUE.
----
----
POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge
cambiarlo
"Here
in Amerika, things are getting worse - not better - as the nation inches ever closer towards totalitarianism, that goose-stepping form of tyranny in which
the government
has all of the power and 'we the people' have none..."
----
----
WORLD
ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
"...the pilots of the Mig-31s cruised at
supersonic speeds of more than 2200 km/h (1367 mph) and located the 'intruder'
aircraft at an altitude of nearly 20km (12.4274-miles) in the
stratosphere."
----
----
GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars:
its profiteers US-NATO
----
Davos:
“Zombie” TPP Trade Deal Threatens Our Fractured World By Friends of the
Earth
----
----
No
to Foreign Intervention in Syria! Get out US and Turkey troops
----
----
----
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty
business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
Pirataje? US Imposes Sanctions on North Korea's Oil
Ministry – Treasury Naked
Piracy?
----
More
effective may be: Call for Abstention & Nat Strike the weak before Elect
& Mov day in Elec
----
----
----
----
----
----
Check : American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry. Jan 2018 Issue or
Curcumin improves memory and mood at
AZAFRAN IN Spanish https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180123101908.htm
----
----
RT SHOWS
----
----
----
----
----
NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for
alternatives to neoliberalism to break with Empire:
----
Econ OXFAM
2018: Premiar el trabajo, no la riqueza
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
-Elije Gbnos locales no con REF, a dedo: fuerza
tact-debil strateg
-Esas
autorid son desmontables con REF once US-mil is defeated
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
China promete al US una
"humillación total" Peor que la de Ho Shiming en VietNam?
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
Keiser
Report El coste real de los fraudes
'inteligentes'
----
----
PRESS TV
Global situation described by
Iranian observers..
National strike with Abstention and
moviliz to Centers is the solution
----
----
----
US and Trks must get out from Syria
asap
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
===
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario