JAN 26 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over.
Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
The Economic debacle today:
After that week, we suspect more than a few FX traders feel
the same way
Let's
get a little context before we start - this is the most overbought (by a bloody
mile) that US equities have ever been...
For a
brief few panic-buying minutes there, NASDAQ actually went vertical on massive
volume as the machines ran it up to 7500!!
As the
usually extremely high correlation between upside and downside implied
volatility has collapsed...
A stunning
week for Tech with AAPL plunging and FANGs surging... (NOTE this is the biggest
weekly divergence between the two since FANGs started trading - bigger than
April 2016)
In FX
Fantasy-land...
Trump's Rescue Bid failed and the dollar pressed down towards cycle lows...
(NOTE the dollar is down 7 weeks in a row - the longest streak since Aug 2010)
The Mnuchin Massacre managed the worst week for the dollar in 8 months
This is
the worst start to a year for the dollar since 1987...
Finally,
we leave you with this... for no good reason...
Bonus Chart: From
Tom McClellan - Bitcoin as a leading indicator for The Dow...?
....
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"A financial smash-up is really the only
thing that will break the awful spell this country is in: the belief that
everyday life can go on when nothing really adds up. It seems to me that the moment is close at hand."
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Not only does this particular
indicator also have a 100% hit rate once triggered, but on 11 out of 11
"sell signals" since 2002, the market always
dropped on average by 12% within 3 months after triggering.
See chart:
There is another, far more
important, reason why the triggering of the Bull and Bear Indicator is a
remarkable event: according to Bank of America back-tests, not only does this
particular indicator also have a
100% hit rate once triggered...
.. but on 11 out of 11 signals since 2002, the market dropped on average 12%
after it was triggered.
…
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This is
what ‘the great and the good’ in the business world were not
discussing during the annual talk-fest at the Swiss luxury resort...
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“Strategy without tactics is the longest path to victory; tactics without strategy is the noise before
defeat.”
What goes up, eventually comes down.
That is just reality.
The bull market that began in 2009,
has now entered the final stage of “capitulation”as investors throw
caution to the wind and charge headlong into the markets with reckless regard
for the consequences.
Of course, it isn’t surprising given the massive amounts of
liquidity continually injected into the financial markets and global Central
Banks have now figured out that continually rising financial markets solve much
of the world’s ills. Simply, with enough liquidity, you
can cover up bad (credit risks) by guaranteeing holders they
will never default.
It’s
genius. It’s a “no
lose” investment scheme.
Unfortunately, we have seen this
repeatedly in the past.
In the 1980’s it was “Portfolio Insurance” –
a “no lose” investment program that eventually erupted into the crash of 1987. But not before the market went into a parabolic advance
first.
Today, it is once again an
absolute “certainty” that
markets will rise from here as global Central Banks have it all under control.
WHAT POSSIBLY COULD GO WRONG?
….
….
HERE IS YOUR WEEKEND READING LIST.
Economy
& Fed
- The Fed Should Listen To The Market’s Message by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
- The Fed Needs To Read This Economics Book by Simon Constable via US News
- DAVOS: Something Wicked This Way Comes by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Could We Be About To Break Out Of Low Growth “New Normal” by Mohamed El-Erian via FT
- Does Trump Deserve Credit For Good Economy? by Larry Summers via Washington Post
- Kashkari: Robust Immigration Vital For Economy by Pedro Da Costa via BI
- Economy’s Success Is About The Math by Jonathon Trugman via NY Post
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Markets
- 5-Scenarios That Could Crash The Market by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- The Real Source Of The Meltup by Brian Maher via The Daily Reckoning
- Investing Environment Has Been Perfect, But Could End Soon by James Mackintosh via WSJ
- BofA Warns Of Frothy Market by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch
- Is This The Most Sustainable Bubble Ever? by Simon Maierhofer via MarketWatch
- Is Anyone Paying Attention by Sven Henrich via Northman Trader
- Davos: Should You Unload Your Stocks by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch
- Are You Ready For The Next Market Melt-DOWN by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
- Dalio: First Comes The Boom, Then The Bust by Edward Harrison via Credit Writedowns
- Gauging Contemporary Bubbles by Chris Hamilton via Economica Blog
- Are Stocks Headed For A Nasty Surprise by Anora Gaudiano via MarketWatch
- Yusko’s 10-Surprises For 2018 by Robert Heubscher via Advisor Perspectives
- A Market Valuation That Defies Comparison by Michael Lebowitz via RIA
- It’s More Than A Matter Of Trust by Doug Kass via RIA
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Cryptocurrency
Mania
- Beyond The Bitcoin Bubble by Steven Johnson via NYT
- Coinbase Is Teaming Up To Unleash Crypto On WallStreet by Frank Chaparro via BI
- IRS Fears Bitcoin Could Starve Government by Holden & Malani via NYT
- How To Value Cryptocurrencies by John Biggs via Tech Crunch
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Research /
Interesting Reads
- Why The Next Downturn Won’t Be Like 2008 by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
- The Bubble That Could Break The World by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning
- The Possibilities Are Frightening by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist
- The Financial Road Map For 2018 by Nomi Prins via The Daily Reckoning
- Barron’s Roundtable: Bright Outlook For Economy & Stocks by Lauren Rublin via Barron’s
- Marks: Future Returns Are Low For Every Asset Class by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Rising Markets Not Bullish For Everyone by Steven Rattner via NYT
- Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong by Rob Arnott via Research Affiliates
- The Trendiest Rally In U.S. History by Dana Lyons via The Lyons Share
- This Market Is Literally Off The Chart by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report
….
“Strategy without tactics is the longest path to
victory; tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” – Sun Tzu, The Art of War
…
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2018 has
seen something unusual happen...
As stocks have
soared, so the implied volatility of the S&P 500 has also - very
unusually - risen...
In fact VIX and the S&P are up
for 3 straight weeks - the longest
streak since Feb 2013.
Typically this is interpreted negatively as it would seem
people are paying up for downside protection as stocks go ever higher and ever
more parabolic.
But 2018 has been anything but typical: It appears that
everyone's buying calls into the rally, accelerating it in the process!
And finally, this is what real
markets look like:
See chart:
Of course, who needs downside
protection when there's levered equity risk to buy with both hands and feet.
…
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"Currency
wars will end with winners and losers, but generally speaking, a weak US dollar
with low US interest rates tend to enhance excessive liquidity, exerting a
positive effect on risk asset prices"
One could be forgiven for thinking this
is a Trump-driven dump...
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
MAD Mentality continue… Military is
just: wasting people’ money: debt plus debt= death
With Washington
having seemingly turned its turret away from 'terror' and back to
"revisionist, authoritarian" regimes like 'Russia and China', the
Military-Industrial Complex is 'gonna need a bigger budget' - a 13% bigger $716 billion one by 2019.
[
For what? De they want to blow
the whole world.. including us? They are
not Americans! ]
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
"This year will undoubtedly be a banner year for arms companies.
The only question is: Might it also mark the beginning of a future movement to roll back
unconstrained weapons expenditures? "
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to
reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars
uncovered ..
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RELATED: Syrian
Opposition Meeting to Be Held in Riyadh [ pro-Saudis-US & Israel ]
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Nasty business IF..
Do they manufacture Thaads missiles and now the interceptors?
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They create the guillotina ,, do they put their neck on
it? .. to be behead? .. I don’t think
so!
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RT SHOWS
The World
According to Jesse Secret
govt space program, UFOs & Steven Greer
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Keiser
Report Episode
1181 Max and Stacy discuss
Amazon’s HQ2 finalist cities and Apple’s massive, post-GOP tax cut investment
plans. Max interviews Maja Vujinovic, about blockchain & latest in AI.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
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La oposición siria boicotea el
congreso de paz en Sochi US, Israel, Saudis
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Keiser Report Trump contra los banqueros
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
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RELATED
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Erdogan
threatens to expand Syria to Iraq
border
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