JAN 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Open this if
you want to see advances in US Econ debacle
----
----
The relative period
of order for the S&P 500 that began back on 31 March 2016 has come to an end...
See chart here:
----
----
We noted
earlier in the week the impact of China's 'fake data' and last
night's data deluge sparked more questions than answers from Wall
Street and beyond.
As a reminder, the data deluge tonight printed as follows...
- China GDP
YoY BEAT: +6.8% vs +6.7% exp (+6.8% prior)
- China
Industrial Production YoY BEAT: +6.2% vs +6.1% exp (+6.1%
prior)
- China Retail
Sales YoY MISS: +9.4% vs +10.2%% exp (+10.2% prior) - lowest since Feb 04
- China Fixed
Assets Investment YoY BEAT +7.2% vs +7.1% exp (+7.2% prior)
Visually...the
trend is clear...
As
The FT reports, China’s
official economic growth rate accelerated for the first time since 2010 last
year, according to data released earlier on Thursday, with annual
growth of 6.9 per cent comfortably beating the government’s original targets.
Here’s what some analysts think
about Thursday’s figures:
Craig Botham, emerging markets economist at Schroders, said the strong external backdrop was a key factor
in a stronger than expected fourth quarter, with trade and investment both
picking up. However, he flagged disappointing recent retail sales figures, and predicted growth will slow this year:
NG’s Iris Pang was slightly more optimistic, however, arguing that China was making good progress in
shifting toward a “consumption-based economy” despite the ”small
downward surprise” in retail at the end of the year:
With projected GDP growth of 6.7 per
cent, 2018 could be another good year for China, supported by consumption of
goods and services and infrastructure investments. We expect the manufacturing of high-tech
products and parts to grow by more than 50 per cent. That should support the
loss of production from overcapacity cuts in non-ferrous metals, shipbuilding
and building materials.
Moreya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, highlighted the unreliability of the government’s
official statistics, suggesting that the headline figure may look a little too
high. She said government efforts to tackle pollution probably caused a
slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter in particular, and said consumers will “struggle” more this year:
The official data
shows very weak growth in Q1, which was out of keeping with the rest of the
data. So we think some of the growth attributed to Q4 in the nominal GDP data likely will eventually be revised back to Q3 and have
adjusted for this in our calculations.
My calculation says
cumulative YTD private fixed asset investment growth in those three months was
5.4, 5.2 and 4.5 percent.
I always assume I've made an error first, but I didn't change anything in my calculations.
Was there a new seasonal adjustment that kicked off in October? I don't see any
announcement. I also assume I didn't catch the NBS making a booboo (reporting
the wrong headline number) because I would think someone would have caught it
before me in the past three months. The real estate investment data matches up,
I don't see any discrepancy there.
Here's private fixed asset investment, the green
line in my cumulative YTD total against the official reported number in yellow.
See chart here: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180118_chinamacro1_0.png
I also calculate a 2.3 percent decline in fixed asset investment for the
month of December.
And it happened See chart at
Here's the breakdown showing the drop. The
December decline is consistent with end of 2015.
The breakdown of private fixed asset investment shows
a contraction in services and manufacturing for the month of December. Last
time it went negative was mid-2016.
Assuming my calculations
were correct, we don't have to wait to see the impact of the credit slowdown. IT IS ALREADY HERE.
Reuters reports the official NBS number: China
2017 fixed asset investment grows 7.2 pct, slowest since 1999
….
----
----
For Gundlach the
answer came with two significant digits of precision: "if the 10
Year goes to 2.63% stocks will be negative impacted."
See chart here ..
...
----
----
"The worst-case scenario would
be profound dollar weakness forcing the Federal Reserve to increase
interest rates much more quickly than expected. This would be like the capital flight market in the
US we saw in the late ‘70s."
[[ Opium dreaming OR nasty dystopian reality ]]
After a
rollercoaster year, the clients of Horseman Global, which in 2016 we
dubbed the world's most bearish hedge fund when its net exposure
hit over -100%...
See
Chart… https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/horseman%20net%20dec%202017.jpg
..
finally got some good news when in his December letter, CIO Russell Clark announced that after returning 5.54% for December, the month emerged
back in the green for the full year, up a modest
2.27%.
See table …
in this source
Here is
Clark's "fascinating" - as he puts it -
theory about the source of dollar weakness, and more troubling, why what
is about to happen next will make the recent collapse
in the USD seem like a walk in the park.
Since the financial crisis,
I have tried to apply the Japanese Quantitative Easing (‘QE’) model to the
world as more and more central banks moved to zero or negative interest rates
and asset purchase programs. In Japan the practical effect of QE has been for Japan to export capital,
and this creates credit bubbles in the recipient countries. The country receiving the
capital then has to deal with the credit bubble by devaluing and exporting
deflation back to Japan. In my view, Japanese QE was the cause of the Asian Financial Crisis, and played a
role in the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurocrisis. In Japan QE has meant my strategy has been to always be bullish JGBs, and short Japanese
equities whenever they attempt to exit QE, and short the currencies of
countries that had accepted QE capital flows. From 2013 to 2016, shorting
various emerging markets, and being long developed market bonds was a winning
strategy for the Fund.
However, in 2016
Chinese policy changes seemed able to reverse this trend, mainly through
government mandated capacity cuts. I have seen many fund managers
and economists hold on to investment and economic ideas long after they have
been proven wrong, so given this break in the model, I thought it wise to
question many of my investment ideas, particularly on bonds.
It is very easy to get bearish on bonds. With Chinese growth improving, and commodity prices rising, inflationary
pressure is building. Furthermore, Chinese bonds currently offer 4%,
substantially higher than developed market bonds. In addition, in a break with the Japanese experience of QE,
the Federal Reserve has managed 5 interest rate increases, rather than only the
one or two that Japan has been able to achieve since the bursting of the
bubble. The refrain that
I have heard these days is that QE works, and the US will be able to easily
exit QE policies, followed by the ECB and the BOJ, and that bonds are a sell.
*
* *
And
here is the conclusion, where - if Clark is right - better hold on to
your hats, because it's about to get very volatile:
The worst-case
scenario would be profound dollar weakness forcing the Federal Reserve to
increase interest rates much more quickly than expected. Dollar
weakness would cause Japanese and European exporters to suffer, forcing money
into JGBs and bunds. This
would be like the capital flight market in the US we saw in the late ‘70s. For reference, Swiss bonds yielded only 2% in the late 1970s, even as US rates went to
near 20%.
[[ In short: se cae el cielo.. y está cargado de rayos. What to do? Que hacer? ..
One option is to get ready to expropriate big millionaires.. the profiteers of
this mess.. and then: get a fly to Mars ]]
….
----
----
POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge
cambiarlo
If truth is dangerous : put the Professor in
jail.. be ‘LIBERAL’
“I find it
ridiculous that ‘unjust police shootings’ is at the top of the list next to
mass murder and genocide...This
class was extremely difficult to
get through if you did not think like a liberal. "
….
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-18/course-uses-pyramid-white-supremacy-teach-diversity
----
----
"We're taming capitalism!" the politicians tell themselves.Unfortunately, they've
driven a fifth of the population into poverty in the process...
----
----
WORLD
ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
"In the end, the whole
Trumpian war scenario against North Korea starts to resemble a sad, real-life
imitation of the classic 1983 movie WarGames... 'the only winning
move is not to play'. Let’s hope that there are some people in the Trump
administration who have watched this movie."
----
----
When you in fear.. you will be
easy to be manipulated. However: MAD theory is right
"'Kanyon' is
designed to wipe out the enemy’s coastlines and make them unlivable for generations..."
[[
Preparing the mind for 1st strike? Ethically: unacceptable.
Practically: Tit for tat is automatic]]
…
"Today
I want to call on all Capetonians
to do more to save water. There are only 95 days left before we reach Day Zero..."
[[ Better if you take streets & demand PEACE stop WARS.. dismantle nukes NOW! ]]
----
----
DEMOCRACY
NOW
US politics crisis: Trump
captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
----
----
----
----
GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars:
its profiteers US-NATO
[
It’s either: the
morons TTs go first .. OR Sy-RU-Ch-Iran-Irak succeed & negot-peace-transit ]
----
Syrian
Air Defense Ready to Destroy Turkish Warplanes If They Attack Afrin – Deputy FM By South Front, Expected: Tuk-master of false flags has to soot US forces there .. then story
will be different
----
----
----
----
----
----
INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3
----
North Korea – an Agent of Peace By Peter Koenig
----
CIA False Flag Likely in Drone Attack on
Russia’s Syrian Bases By
Finian Cunningham
----
----
----
Trump Heads for Armageddon By Hassan Nasrallah
----
----
----
Zionism's Jewish Enemy By Aalan Hart He Interview Professor Ilan Pappe
----
Silence Is Betrayal: Get Up, Stand Up, Speak
Up for Your Rights By J W.
Whitehead
----
Media Lies About Fake News By Eric Zuesse
----
----
----
It's Time To Wake Up - We Are All One Must
Watch
----
----
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty
business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
RT SHOWS
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for
alternatives to neoliberalism to break with Empire:
-Estado Policiaco Global William I. Robinson
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
PRESS
TV
Global situation described by
Iranian observers..
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
===
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario