JAN 25 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
TODAY’ ECONOMIC SITUATION:
Despite Mnuchin's and Trump's best
efforts, dollar-owners ended the day like this...
Before we start on the markets shenanigans, two quick
things:
First - South Korea's economy reported a contraction last night, its first
since the financial crisis - as exports
crashed...
Second: US economic data has been notably disappointing this year (the worst start to a year since 2015)…
Not pretty:
- Retail
Sales Miss
- Empire
Fed Miss
- Housing
Starts Miss
- Philly
Fed Miss
- UMich
Confidence Miss
- Richmond
Fed Miss
- Markit
US PMI Miss
- Existing
Home Sales Miss
- New
Home Sales Miss
Under whether Trump will want to jawbone the dollar again as it sinks his precious stock market?
It's not just vol that is diverging
from stocks, HY bonds have completely decoupled...
10Y yield are back below the
Gundlach line of doom...
Steve Mnuchin did his best to try and walk-back some of his
comments from yesterday... but really didn't and the
dollar continued its freefall...until President Trump rescued it... But sadly the dollar did not hold onto those gains...
The Dollar Index dropped below 89
intraday.
…
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-25/trump-rescues-dollar-mnuchin-massacre-sparks-stock-slump
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"...to fix this,
economists would have to admit that Economics itself is fundamentally, perhaps
irretrievably, flawed. That’s
not happening anytime soon, so this 'boom' will go on without any boom."
See chart:
The real
issue is in recovery, or enough recovery, if you will. If going from 25/50/25 < 50 with an average 10%
decline in the middle proportion leads to eventually, say, 50/25/25 but this time with only an average 1% gain in the “improving”
category, does the resulting index well above 50 really equal the same
readings above 50 from before the contraction? NO.
See chart Friedman Placking Model of Trend Cycle Analysis
Regardless of symmetry considerations, that would appear to indicate a
general slowing in the US economy to end 2017 and begin 2018 (from an already
lowered starting point).
See chart:
In other words, it’s a boom that isn’t a boom
doing less while not booming. They call Economics the “dismal science”
for the wrong reasons; it’s not a science, but it is a
miserable excuse for one.
….
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THE
NEOLIBERAL MODEL SE HUNDE A NIVEL GLOBAL:
"An unprecedented bubble emerged during 2004-2006. We
believe the current market environment is similar, in which monetary policy (hiking the policy rate)
is likely to have a limited effect in restraining risk-taking."
Deutsche then lays out the three
possible scenarios that could - in theory - stop, and maybe even reverse, the
current asset bubble which are as follows:
- Monetary policies or communications
designed to increase volatility,
- Monetary policies designed to hike
long-term interest rates, and strangely
- Regulations and supervisions to
curb cryptocurrency trading.
And some further thoughts on these three points.
- First, Deutsche notes that former Fed Governor Jeremy Stein advocated for a
monetary policy to cope with credit spreads (see excerpts below), but
little headway was made in discussing policies targeting volatility (however, Chairman
Powell prefers a communication style that raises uncertainty of
monetary policy.)
- Second, monetary policies designed to hike
long-term interest rates include
tapering quantitative easing, reducing the size of the central bank’s
balance sheet, twist operations, and changes to yield curve control. Yet, these policies are
all predicated on inflation
accelerating.
- Which leaves option three: regulating cryptocurrency trading and
initial coin offerings (ICOs) which however, unlike in China, will take time in developed countries.
And yes, the irony of the
Fed trying to burst one bubble, that of cryptos, to keep the equity bubble
going just a little bit longer, is hardly lost on
anyone, although we are surprise by Deutsche
Bank's skepticism that this approach could work.
In summary, the biggest
German lender comes to the gloomy conclusion that:
"...monetary policy and regulations/ oversight
could, like in the
last financial crisis, come too late to prevent an expansion of the asset
bubble."
….
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Paul Krugman's latest missive in
the New York Times is a nice example of his two recurrent themes, namely self-regard and world-weariness.
It's important to understand the extent to which
Krugman believes the Fed could simply recapitalize insolvent
commercial banks with trillions of newly-created dollars to no ill effect (with
his proviso that interest rates sta near zero). That those dollars mostly remain un-deployed in the
economy, earning interest from the Fed no less, speaks more to a lack of
creditworthy borrowers and real growth than it does to
Krugman's insistence that inflation is not a threat. The Fed's
balance sheet can unwind, however slowly, although we'll believe it when we see
it. But increasing commercial bank reserves
gives banks the ability to create more credit and loans. i.e. an increase in
the monetary base creates the conditions for banks to increase the money
supply. This is inflationary when/if it happens. And yes, the Fed really
did simply monetize US debt in the process. Consider this howler
from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard in 2010:
see table..
Krugman's belief that QE and the staggering run-up
in the Fed's balance sheet was salutary rather than harmful is no more proven
than his other (endless) claims and predictions. Before this is
over it may rank up there with Greenspan's promise of endless growth and
Fukuyama's claims that history had ended.
…
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Robinhood,
the "fastest-growing brokerage ever" is getting into
cryptocurrencies, and with its "no fee" model is set to become the
biggest competitor to Coinbase.
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POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
The last
two months have seen tectonic shifts regarding Julian Assange’s hopes of being
able to safely leave the Ecuadorian embassy in London after what is now over
seven years of arbitrary detention. The Wikileaks Editor In
Chief was granted an Ecuadorian passport in December,
which conferred on him the right of Ecuadorian citizenship. Potentially even
more significant was Ecuador’s move to classify Assange as a Diplomat.
…
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
...The
Bulletin for Atomic Scientists' "Doomsday Clock" is now two minutes to
midnight...
On Thursday, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists raised the likelihood of
an apocalyptic nuclear catastrophe to its highest level in the clock's 70+-year
history, the Washington
Post reported.
During a press
conference announcing the escalation, the group
of scientists comprising the Bulletin offered a "grim assessment" of the factors that preceded the increase: These factors
included North Korea's nuclear program, tensions
between India
and Pakistan and Russia's and China's incorporation of nuclear drills
into its military exercise. President
Donald Trump's mercurial tweets were also cited in the report.
“There is
little doubt that the risk that nuclear weapons may be used - intentionally or
because of miscalculation - grew last year around the globe,” Rosner said.
SEE CHART below:
...
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THE PACIFIST TRUMP:
The Air
Force has recently upgraded the largest non-nuclear bomb in its arsenal — a
30,000-pound “bunker-buster,” which can be only dropped by the B-2s.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to
reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
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Congress’s
Ratification of Trump’s Spying Power Is a Direct Threat to the Privacy of
Internet Communications By Prof. Marjorie
Cohn
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n
chances of WW3
"Who Lost Turkey?" - The
U.S.-Kurdish Project In Syria Endangers NATO By Moon Of Alabama
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Trump is Helping to Make the Region a
Crueller Place By Robert Fisk
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Looking Into 2018 By The Saker WAR OR NO WAR
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Europe’s Pandering to Trump Risks Killing
Iran Nuclear Deal By Finian
Cunningham
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The Russiagate Stakes Are Extreme By Paul Craig Roberts
A coup conspir organiz by top officials of Obama Justice
Depart, FBI, CIA, & the Hillary DNC
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Creating an Empire of Graveyards? By Tom Engelhardt
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Pilger: Mainstream Media and Imperial Power By D J Bernstein and R Credico
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Trump Signs Law Allowing Mass Spying on
Citizens By Andrew
Napolitano
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Geopolitics & the nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars
uncovered ..
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La mala suerte: Donald Trump heads to Davos
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RT SHOWS
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Keiser
Report Episode
1180 Max and Stacy discuss
the US jobs being added thanks to tax cuts. Max interviews Marco Santori, a
lawyer specializing in cryptocurrency
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
La
pregunta es si vale la pena defender a quienes mienten, extorsionan con nukes, imponen
sanciones a países pobres, hacen fraudes electorales y todo por el amor al USD
que se imprime de la nada.. sin respaldo en oro ni en el ‘trade’.. Felizmente el
USD ya se va y con él , las deudas soberanas. Entonces caerá el imperio que dejo tanta destrucción y
muerte.
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Fem vs machism es falso dilema: parte del supuesto de que el honor de
ambos esta entre las piernas. Hombres y mujeres son 2 caras de una misma
moneda. Al devaluar, devalúas la otra
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Todos
sistema de poder corroe y pervierte. No a todos y quizá Evo es la excepción.
Pero todo sistema tiene conflictos internos y esas contradic definen la vida de
un sistema. Pienso que la habilidad de Evo fue y es
mediar esos conflictos, no exacerbarlos. Pero veo un error que es notable: el vacío
de poder que dejaría si no se crea un sucesor como el para mediar los conflictos
internos. No sé si existe la persona (hombre o mujer) que pueda substituirlo en
esa función. Si no es visible, eso es grave, pues si cae Evo es posible que el
poder polit vaya a uno de los ejes del conflicto y sea la Nacion quien pierda. Por
eso pienso que Evo debe ayudar a crear un substituto que sea capaz de dar el balance que él dio al
sistema. Le deseo la mejor suerte a Bolivia .. Me quede con ganas de visitar
Cochabamba. Dicen que quien no visita Machu Pichu y Cochabamba no va al cielo
.. El Machu Pichu lo subí y tres veces. Y
si no visito Cochamanba me quedaré en el purgatorio .. porque al infierno de
Don Sata no voy. Preferiría el US, un infierno con fuertes heladas que dejan
los runtus sonando como nueces. Total el Sata “T” de aquí es removible..
y es tan idiota que auto-rompió el techo de vidrio de su imperio. Sin duda, necesitamos
un EVO aquí.
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
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