viernes, 27 de enero de 2017

JAN 27 17 SIT EC y POL



JAN  27 17  SIT EC y POL


ZERO HEDGE, BLOOMBERG & WS-J 
ECONOMICS



Despite record U.S. auto sales last year, the number of vehicles on car-dealer lots remains near record highs, and, as J.D.Power analyst Thomas King warned this week, 2016 ended with an inventory "bubble" that will require less production or more incentives to clear.
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Ugly GDP helped take US Macro to its worst weekly drop in over 3 months...


But we wanted to bring this to stock traders' attention...


Note however that the short-squeeze highs were hit on Wednesday's open...


The USD Index fell for the 5th week in a row, closing at 2-month lows...

Top-down things DON'T SEEM SO AWESOME...


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A mild version of reality you can see it below,  though the gap between reality and hope is also at a record high...



We can only surmise how this eventually turns out. But whether it is extremely suppressed volatility, extreme long positions in small-cap stocks or historical short positions in bonds, the “rubber band” is stretched very tightly. Of course, while “Trump-xuberance” currently reigns, there seems to be nothing to worry about. But then again, maybe that is exactly what we should be worrying about.
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As noted yesterday, the stock-bond ratio is at levels that have previously denoted trouble for the markets.

Furthermore, while interest rates turned up this week after their recent decline, the historic relationship between extremely suppressed volatility and the 10-year Treasury rate suggests a “flight to safety” is likely not too far into the future. 

 I can only surmise how this eventually turns out. But whether it is extremely suppressed volatility, extreme long positions in small-cap stocks or historical short positions in bonds, the “rubber band” is stretched very tightly. 

Of course, while “Trump-xuberance” currently reigns, there seems to be nothing to worry about.
But then again, maybe that is exactly what we should be worrying about.

In the meantime, here is what I am reading this weekend as I wear my “Dow 20,000” hat.

TRUMP
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MARKETS
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INTERESTING READS
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President Trump is anything but traditional.  That said, one Presidential tradition that Trump may not want to break is celebrating stock market gains because what goes up, at least on Wall Street, usually comes crashing down in spectacular fashion at some point soon thereafter.
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January tends to show extremes of the market’s perceptions of near term risks, for good or for bad. And we know that at current levels the VIX highlights a complacent market. Does that assure us that things will get choppier from here? Of course not. But to be boldly bullish here is to ignore the historical patterns. And that seems riskier than staying aware of both history and current market dynamics. Based on the level of the economic policy uncertainty in the world, a regression model would have predicted that the VIX would be pushing 30 instead of hovering around 10.
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POLITICS


On the American left there is something like revulsion at the idea of the “beautiful wall” President Trump intends to build along the 1,900-mile border between the U.S. and Mexico. The opposition’s arguments are usually rooted in economics or practicality. The wall is unnecessary. It will not stop people from coming illegally. It costs too much. Yet something deeper is afoot here...
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We will examine American hegemony from a foreign nation’s perspective. In other words, if a nation wanted to attack the U.S. to either replace the U.S. as global superpower or to create conditions that would allow it to act freely to establish regional hegemony, how would this be accomplished?
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"Like many of you, I'm concerned about the impact of the recent executive orders signed by President Trump... We should also keep our doors open to refugees and those who need help. That's who we are...Expanding the focus of law enforcement beyond people who are real threats would make all Americans less safe.."
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WORLD ISSUES and ME



Of the $302 billion in total Mexican exports (offset by $179 billion in imports), the largest two categories were electical machinery & equipment, followed by nuclear reactors, boilers machinery & equipment, with motor only coming in third spot.

[[ Lo que exporta Mx es lo que las maquiladoras del USA y de paises europeos -parte del sistema neoliberal- llevan al mercado americano. Eso contiene el surplus creado por la mano de obra barata de los mexicanos. La “pared” de Trump no pretende parar ese robo o explotación.  Al contrario, facilitarla con la venia del Pdte de Mx. El supuesto conflicto entre ambos es falso, puro teatro. El Pdte de Mx pone la mano de obra barata de su país y Trump “gravara con impuestos a los empresarios que se fueron del país y dejaron sin trabajo a los del norte”, y a la vez, ajustara cuentas a los europeos. Que se va a limitar la migracion? .. es otro cuentazo. La mayoría de los migrantes fueron “solicitados” por los rancheros americanos que urgen de ese labor barato. En realidad, es todo el empresariado USA quien los requiere. Es la migra mejicana quien ayuda a presionar hacia abajo el salario de ley que el empresariado USA no quiere pagar a su labor en el norte .. de forma que los migrantes seguirán ingresando y en la misma proporción con que viajan las otras mercancías, quizá junto a ellas. Que el Presid de Mx diga NO a la muralla es un cuentazo. Lo que si va a ocurrir es que el Estado-Nación de Mx va a dejar de percibir los taxes que las empresas maquiladoras dejaban al país, pues ahora tendrán que pagar la pared de Trump. Es el Estado Nacion de Mx quien pierde esos taxes y son los “audaces” oligarcas de ambos paises los que ganan. El de Presi de Mx dirá no voy a pagar un medio a Trump, cuando jamás hubo intención de que él pague, al contrario, va a recibir su partecita en el negocio de la muralla .. cuanto, como, donde.. Nadie lo sabe aún.. no todavía; quizá más tarde.]]     
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DEMOCRACY NOW


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GLOBAL RESEARCH


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE


Al-Qaeda in Syria did attack several local groups, raided their headquarters and confiscated their CIA supplied weapon and ammunition caches
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The rolling imperial engine of regime change via American-led military intervention has been stopped in its tracks.
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The sanctions are an insult to Russia. Trump cannot normalize relations with Russia if he lets this insult stand.
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COUNTER PUNCH


Paul Street   The Empire Has No Clothes
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Mike Whitney  Game Over for Democrats?
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS


Trump Orders Nuclear Posture Review, Enhanced Ballistic Missile Capabilities   https://sputniknews.com/military/201701281050095418-trump-orders-nuclear-missile-capabilities/
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Related
US Vice President to Participate in Trump-Putin Phone Conversation Saturday   https://sputniknews.com/politics/201701281050096189-pence-participate-putin-trump-talks/
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Trump's Executive Order Halts Syrian Refugee Program Until Further Notice   https://sputniknews.com/us/201701281050094938-trump-order-end-syria-progra/
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG



Let’s spend a moment deconstructing the word “capitalism.” Note it contains the word Capital. So far so good. Obviously the key concept here is capital.

So what is “capital”? It turns out there are multiple kinds of capital. The most familiar kinds are tangible: cash, orchards, factories, water rights, tools, and so on.

Then there’s credit. If you have unlimited credit at very low rates of interest, you can buy all the tangible capital you want, as long as it produces enough income to cover the costs of production and the interest you owe on the borrowed money you used to buy the factories, orchards, etc.

Some types of capital are intangible but essential to the productive use of tangible capital. You can have the credit, land and pile of lumber needed to build a house, but if you don’t have the knowledge, experience and skills needed to turn the pile of wood into a productive form of tangible capital, you have nothing but an unproductive pile of lumber.

We call this form of capital human capital (also called knowledge-based capital, intellectual capital, etc.).

If you hire a person with some of these skills, that’s a good start, but you need specialists who can complete all the trades needed to build a fully functional house that can be rented or sold, i.e. earn a return on the capital invested.
Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH


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Debate "A la mierda el trabajo"   Ferguson vs. Livingston, IV asalto  Scott Ferguson
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Diálogos en Astaná   Irán, un protagonista innegable en la solución siria  Pablo Jofré
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PRESS TV


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Era de esperarse. Hubiera sido grave que el pueblo destruya las
maquiladoras que roban su trabajo semi-esclavo. No habría quien
le pague la muralla a Trump. En el asalto al labor ambos se necesitan
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Why US giving up on military interventions Trump’ USA?.. I don’t think so
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