JAN 27 17 SIT EC y POL
ZERO HEDGE, BLOOMBERG & WS-J
ECONOMICS
Despite
record U.S. auto sales last year, the number of vehicles on car-dealer lots
remains near record highs, and, as J.D.Power analyst Thomas King warned this week, 2016 ended with an inventory
"bubble" that will require less production or more incentives to
clear.
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Ugly GDP helped take US Macro to its worst weekly drop in
over 3 months...
But we wanted to bring this to stock traders' attention...
Note however that the short-squeeze highs were hit on
Wednesday's open...
The USD Index fell for the 5th week in a row, closing at
2-month lows...
Top-down things DON'T SEEM SO AWESOME...
SEE ALL GRAPHICS OF OUR FINANCIAL DEBACLE AT: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-27/stocks-soar-record-highs-peso-jumps-most-year
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A mild version of reality you can see it below, though the gap between reality and hope is also
at a record high...
We can only surmise how this eventually turns
out. But whether it is extremely suppressed volatility, extreme long positions in
small-cap stocks or historical short positions in bonds, the “rubber band” is stretched very tightly. Of course, while
“Trump-xuberance” currently reigns, there seems to be nothing to worry about. But then again, maybe that is
exactly what we should be worrying about.
..
As noted yesterday, the
stock-bond ratio is at levels that have previously denoted trouble for the
markets.
Furthermore, while interest rates turned up this week
after their recent decline, the historic relationship
between extremely suppressed volatility and the 10-year Treasury rate suggests
a “flight to safety” is likely not too far into the future.
I can only surmise how this eventually turns out. But whether it is extremely suppressed volatility, extreme
long positions in small-cap stocks or historical short positions in bonds, the “rubber
band” is stretched very tightly.
Of course, while
“Trump-xuberance” currently reigns, there seems to be nothing to worry about.
But then again,
maybe that is
exactly what we should be worrying about.
In the meantime, here
is what I am reading this weekend as I wear my “Dow 20,000” hat.
TRUMP
- Stockman: Trump Sitting On Fiscal Time Bomb by Craig Wilson via Daily Reckoning
- Open Letter To President Trump by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong
- Trumps Border Tax Will Drive Up Gas Prices by Rachael Levy via BI
- Cheaper, Better Insurance? Good Luck by David Lazarus via LA Times
- GOP Leads Off With A Tax Increase by John Tamny via Forbes
- Trumps Tax Breaks Will Let You Bring More Home by Jonathon Trugman via NY Post
- How Trump Can Rebuild America At 50% Off by Nicole Gelinas via NY Post
- Trump’s $10 Trillion Stimulus Plan by Stephen Moore via The Washington Times
- Trump Missed His Chance To “Drain The Swamp” by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning
- Trump Doing Just Fine W/O Economists by Diana Furchtgott-Roth via US News
- Could Trump Tank The Economy? by Jeff Spross via The Week
- Infrastructure Spending Deemed Most Important by Ben Ryan via Gallup
- CEO’s Fear A Trump Twitter-Tirade by Andrew Ross-Sorkin via NY Times
- Why Trump Could Fail by Jeff Harding via An Independent Mind
- Can Protectionism Make America Great Again? by Niall Ferguson via Boston Globe
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MARKETS
- Caterpillar: Weak Global Conditions by Bob Bryan via Business Insider
- Dow 20,000: Don’t Be Euphoric, Be Cautious by Jason Zweig via WSJ
- Wall Street Analysts Give Investors What They Want by Matt Levine via Bloomberg
- Illusions Driving Up U.S. Asset Prices by Robert Shiller via Project Syndicate
- Time To Change To A Trump Portfolio? by Sue Chang via MarketWatch
- 2nd Largest Bubble In 100-Years by Erik McCurdy via Investing.com
- Biggest Market Risk Is A Policy Mistake by Jim Joslin & Renee Kwok via TFC Fin. Mgmt.
- Is Trump Setting Oil Up For Another Bust? by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com
- Trump’s Wall Of Worry Might Be Good For Stocks by William Watts via MarketWatch
- Why The Bond Bloodbath May Not Come by Howard Gold via MarketWatch
- Buy The Bond Market Dip by Abee Crombie via Macro Man
- Why Dow 20,000 May Not Last Long by Anthony Mirhaydari via Fiscal Times
- How The Trump Rally Stacks Up by William Watts via MarketWatch
- Trump Bump To Trump Dump? Not So Fast by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch
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INTERESTING READS
- UBS: Americans Still Lie On Loan Apps by Matt Turner via BI
- 90’s Mantra Of “Strong Dollar” Retooled For Trump Era by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
- How Obama Made $20 Million While In Office by Dan Alexander via Forbes
- Student Debt Payback Far Worse Than Believed by Andrea Fuller via WSJ
- The Order Of Operation by Jeffrey Snider via RCM
- Stop Rewarding Unimaginative Politicians by Kevin Williamson via National Review
- What Financial Advisors Are Doing In The Trump Era by Paul Katzeff via IBD
- $90 Bil Debt Wave Showing Cracks In Property Boom by Sarah Mulholland via Bloomberg
- Time Is Not On Your Side With Credit Debt by Ann Carrns via NY Times
- Inside Obama’s 235% Return by Nathan Vardi via Forbes
- Inflation: It Won’t Last by Satyajit Das via Bloomberg
- Cool Graphic Shows Jobs Vulnerable To Automation by Julia La Roche via Yahoo
- Reign Of Economic Error Plagues Housing Market by Aaron Layman
- Bernanke: The Fed Shouldn’t Shrink Its Balance Sheet by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Who Exactly Is The Currency Manipulator by Richard Moody via Regions
- #CrashSignatures Signal Market Losses by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
- The Wait Is Over – NYSE 11,250 by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
- Will Trump Prick The “Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble?” by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report
….
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President Trump is anything but traditional. That said, one Presidential tradition that Trump may not want to break
is celebrating stock market gains because
what goes up, at least on Wall Street, usually comes crashing down in
spectacular fashion at some point soon thereafter.
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January
tends to show extremes of the market’s perceptions of near term risks, for good
or for bad. And we know that at current levels the VIX highlights
a complacent market. Does that assure us that things
will get choppier from here? Of course not. But to be boldly bullish here is to
ignore the historical patterns. And that seems riskier than staying
aware of both history and current market dynamics. Based on the level of the economic policy
uncertainty in the world, a regression model would have predicted that the VIX
would be pushing 30 instead of hovering around 10.
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POLITICS
On the
American left there is something like revulsion at the idea of the “beautiful
wall”
President Trump intends to build along the 1,900-mile border between the
U.S. and Mexico. The opposition’s arguments are usually rooted in economics
or practicality. The wall is unnecessary. It will not
stop people from coming illegally. It costs too much. Yet something deeper is afoot
here...
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We will
examine American hegemony from a foreign nation’s perspective. In other words, if
a nation wanted to attack the U.S. to either replace the U.S. as global
superpower or to create conditions that would allow it to act freely to
establish regional hegemony, how
would this be accomplished?
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"Like
many of you, I'm concerned about the impact of the recent executive
orders signed by President Trump... We should also
keep our doors open to refugees and those who need help. That's who
we are...Expanding the focus of law enforcement beyond people who are real
threats would make all Americans less safe.."
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
Of the $302 billion in total Mexican exports
(offset by $179 billion in imports), the largest two categories were electical
machinery & equipment, followed by nuclear reactors, boilers machinery
& equipment, with motor only coming in third spot.
…
[[ Lo que exporta Mx es
lo que las maquiladoras del USA y de paises europeos -parte del sistema
neoliberal- llevan al mercado americano. Eso contiene el surplus creado por la
mano de obra barata de los mexicanos. La “pared” de Trump no pretende parar ese
robo o explotación. Al contrario, facilitarla con la venia del Pdte de Mx.
El supuesto conflicto entre ambos es falso, puro teatro. El Pdte de Mx pone la
mano de obra barata de su país y Trump “gravara con impuestos a los empresarios
que se fueron del país y dejaron sin trabajo a los del norte”, y a la vez,
ajustara cuentas a los europeos. Que se va a limitar la migracion? .. es otro
cuentazo. La mayoría de los migrantes fueron “solicitados” por los rancheros
americanos que urgen de ese labor barato. En realidad, es todo el empresariado
USA quien los requiere. Es la migra mejicana quien ayuda a presionar hacia
abajo el salario de ley que el empresariado USA no quiere pagar a su labor en el
norte .. de forma que los migrantes seguirán ingresando y en la misma proporción
con que viajan las otras mercancías, quizá junto a ellas. Que el Presid de Mx
diga NO a la muralla es un cuentazo. Lo que si va a ocurrir es que el Estado-Nación
de Mx va a dejar de percibir los taxes que las empresas maquiladoras dejaban al
país, pues ahora tendrán que pagar la pared de Trump. Es el Estado Nacion de Mx
quien pierde esos taxes y son los “audaces” oligarcas de ambos paises los que
ganan. El de Presi de Mx dirá no voy a pagar un medio a
Trump, cuando jamás hubo intención de que él pague, al contrario, va a recibir
su partecita en el negocio de la muralla .. cuanto, como, donde.. Nadie lo sabe
aún.. no todavía; quizá más tarde.]]
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DEMOCRACY NOW
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Will
Washington’s New Pro-Moscow, Anti-Beijing Gang Drive a Wedge Through the BRICS
in 2017? By Prof. Patrick Bond
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Trump’s
First Week: A Win for the Elite, a Loss for the People. “And it Does Not Look
Good” By Joachim Hagopian
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Al-Qaeda Consolidates Its Front Groups In
Syria By Moon Of Alabama
Al-Qaeda in Syria did attack several local groups, raided
their headquarters and confiscated their CIA supplied weapon and ammunition
caches
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The rolling imperial engine of regime change via
American-led military intervention has been stopped in its tracks.
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The sanctions are an insult to Russia. Trump cannot
normalize relations with Russia if he lets this insult stand.
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COUNTER PUNCH
Paul Street The
Empire Has No Clothes
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Mike Whitney Game
Over for Democrats?
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Yoav Litvin Trump’s
America: Land of Dystopia and Resistance
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Vijay Prashad Trump
and the Decline of American Unipolarity
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Raul Castro The
Path of Unity: Address to CELAC Conference
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Trump Orders Nuclear Posture Review, Enhanced Ballistic Missile Capabilities https://sputniknews.com/military/201701281050095418-trump-orders-nuclear-missile-capabilities/
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Trump-Putin Talks Over Telephone
Scheduled for 12 Noon on Saturday
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201701281050095919-trump-putin-call-saturday/
Related
US Vice President to Participate in Trump-Putin Phone Conversation Saturday https://sputniknews.com/politics/201701281050096189-pence-participate-putin-trump-talks/
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Trump's Executive Order Halts Syrian Refugee Program Until Further Notice https://sputniknews.com/us/201701281050094938-trump-order-end-syria-progra/
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Posted on January 27, 2017 by Charles
Hugh Smith
Let’s spend a moment
deconstructing the word “capitalism.” Note it contains the word Capital.
So far so good. Obviously the key concept here is capital.
So what is “capital”? It turns
out there are multiple kinds of capital. The most familiar kinds are
tangible: cash, orchards, factories, water rights, tools, and so on.
Then there’s credit.
If you have unlimited credit at very low rates of interest, you can buy all the
tangible capital you want, as long as it produces enough income to cover the
costs of production and the interest you owe on the borrowed money you used to
buy the factories, orchards, etc.
Some types of capital are
intangible but essential to the productive use of tangible capital.
You can have the credit, land and pile of lumber needed to build a house, but
if you don’t have the knowledge, experience and skills needed to turn the pile
of wood into a productive form of tangible capital, you have nothing but an
unproductive pile of lumber.
We call this form of
capital human
capital (also called knowledge-based
capital, intellectual capital, etc.).
If you hire a person
with some of these skills, that’s a good start, but you need specialists who
can complete all the trades needed to build a fully functional house that can
be rented or sold, i.e. earn a return on the capital invested.
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Los huérfanos de la globalización
neoliberal Emir Sader
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El rol de Israel en la guerra sucia
en Guatemala Gabriel Schivone
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Por qué odian las religiones a las
mujeres? Fuensanta Hernández
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Los países pobres financian a los
ricos Manuel
E. Yepe
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Exterminio indígena siglo XXI Sergio Alvez
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El 1984 de Orwell parece más
vivo que nunca Pepe Gutiérrez
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Keiser
report 1024 ¿Obamacare u 'Obamarrobo'?: Conozca
cómo funciona el entramado de la sanidad estadounidense
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PRESS TV
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US,
Mexican presidents de-escalate over phone
Era de esperarse. Hubiera sido grave
que el pueblo destruya las
maquiladoras que roban su trabajo
semi-esclavo. No habría quien
le pague la muralla a Trump. En el
asalto al labor ambos se necesitan
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Why
US giving up on military interventions Trump’ USA?.. I don’t think so
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'Violence
cost global economy $13.6 trillion in 2015
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