JAN 18 17 SIT EC y POL
ZERO HEDGE, BLOOMBERG & WS-J
ECONOMICS
As President Obama held his last press conference this afternoon,
basking in the warm afterglow of an over-sampled poll showing his favorability
near record highs, it would appear he (and the press corps) forgot to mention
that for most Americans - the
80% in production and nonsupervisory roles - this morning's data showed real
wages actually dropping for the first time since 2013. Not exactly the rosy picture of economic growth
being spun by the media as Obama transitions to Trump.
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Want to
know why US stocks feel so fragile? Perhaps we can blame Wall Street analysts. Even after
two months of market buzz about lower taxes, infrastructure spending and less
regulation juicing investor expectations for better earnings growth, they refuse to bump
their revenue or earnings estimates for 2017.
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Huge difference between perception and reality
December was a fitting end to a difficult year for hedge funds: the
single largest month of outfles in 2016, December also marked the sixth month
of outflows in the last seven, and resulted in Q4 not only being the fifth consecutive
quarter of redemptions, but also the largest quarterly outflow from the
industry since Q1 2009.
…
As JPM's equity
strategist explains in a note summarizing active manager performance, 2016 was one of the most
challenging years for active equity managers with only 32% of fundamental and
quantitative funds outperforming their benchmarks. JPM estimates that large cap U.S. fundamental managers
underperformed by a median 33 bp before fees, with Value managers outperforming
(+0.77 bp vs. benchmark) and Growth managers underperforming (-79 bp vs.
benchmark).
In more bad news for
the buyside, JPM notes that even though (or perhaps because) the market
finished up more than 9%, US equity funds saw net ~$50 billion outflows in 2016
and a record rotation from Active to Passive. Investors pulled ~$200
billion from active US equity funds. This is the
single largest annual rotation out of active management. Meanwhile,
passive equity funds (including ETFs) captured ~$150 billion of inflows.
- Bond funds saw $118 billion inflows in 2016 as equity funds saw $43 billion in outflows (driven by redemptions from active equity funds).
- Active equity funds lost a cumulative $198 billion in 2016 outflows as passive equity funds received $153 billion of inflows.
Meanwhile, as the chart on the left shows, gund flows
highlight significant post-election rotation. The global search for
yield in 2016 drove large bond fund inflows funded by equity outflows, though
this trend reversed after the U.S. election. Since the election, equity funds have seen
$52 billion in inflows, and bond funds $10 billion in outflows.
Reflation-linked sectors saw the largest inflows while Healthcare and
Discretionary experienced the largest outflows.
To summarize, redemptions in 2016
were the industry’s largest since 2009, and the third year on record where
investors removed more than they allocated.
To summarize, redemptions in 2016
were the industry’s largest since 2009, and the third year on record where
investors removed more than they allocated.
And while the industry is not going to disappear any time soon, with hedge fund assets ending 2016 at $3.042
trillion, or an increase of $13.9 billion, the
performance gains of $119.9 billion offset investor outflows which surpassed
$100 billion.
The report's conclusion:
Investor flows for 2016 resembled
an industry in crisis. They were
similar to mid-2011 and 2012 in persistence, but dwarfed outflows seen during the European sovereign crisis in
magnitude. They were below the levels seen
during the aftermath of the great financial crisis, but have been much more
persistent.
And so, to all the
smartest guys in the room, good luck.
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Yellen takes to the stage at the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco to
explain what "the
goals of monetary policy are... and how we pursue them." We can't wait to hear how increasing asset prices to
untenable levels, depriving savers of income, and driving the largest wedge
between rich and poor since the great depression have been part of the
solution...
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Since 2012, the S&P 500
has risen almost 70% while earnings
are up a mere 2%...
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[[ opposite view 2 ]]
Despite spiking ISM and PMI 'soft' survey data,
US Manufacturing output stagnated for the 14th month in a row in December with
a mere 0.2% rise year-over-year (amid
downward revisions), notably less than the expected 0.4% rise.
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The Dollar Index surged higher today rebounding from its
biggest drop since July with its biggest spike since
the election today following
Trump/Ross comments on NAFTA and extended by Yellen's comments late on regarding
rate hikes... (and we suspect with Xi leaving Davos, China currency
strength was unwound)
See image at: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/17/20170118_EOD1_1_0.jpg
The Dow dropped... (The
Dow is down 4 shocking days in a row - the longest losing streak since the
election)
As not even Goldman Sachs could rescue bank stocks... (the last two days were the worst for Goldman
since Brexit) See image at:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/17/20170118_EOD6_0.jpg
…
See all graphs at: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-18/dow-drops-dollar-bond-yields-spike-most-election
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China knew that both crisis (Ec recession and ww3) will
convert US Treasuries into toilet paper
China
dumped a whopping $66.4 billion in US Treasuries in its 6th consecutive monthly
sale of US paper, and the biggest monthly selloff since December 2011. The
monthly sale also brings China's total Treasury holdings to the lowest level
since early 2010.
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El
Mercado global sigue salvando las empresas en quiebra al interior. Case: Netflix
Forget the negative
cash-flow, forget the ongoing and rising cost of content, and forget the fact
that Netflix slashed its domestic subscriber growth expectations; .. the record is
high because earnings and revenues met expectations at international level ..
subscriber growth soared.
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POLITICS
Butcher “ethics” : change me the victim!. He tortured both of them. He deserves
been indicted
"Mr. Assange welcomes the announcement that Ms. Manning's sentence
will be reduced and she will be released in May, but this is well short of what he sought.
Mr. Assange had called for Chelsea Manning to receive
clemency and be released immediately."
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Deal was: H won’t participate in politics.. If so, she be indicted
(email scandal).. She is above the Law.
Like a nagging case
of "pneumonia" that brings with it random, yet inevitable, bouts of
full-body paralysis, the rumors/threats of Hillary tossing
her hat in the ring for the New York City Mayoral race simply won't go away.
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Rather than being the bad guys, as per the usual Liberal world-view,
the Armed Forces may well
play a key role in reducing the utterly toxic influence of neocon-neoliberals
within the Deep State.
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"I’m hoping that if
leftists see how tax hikes are “successful” in discouraging things that they
think are bad (such as consumers buying sugary soda or foreigners buying
property), then maybe they’ll realize it’s not such a good idea to tax – and
therefore discourage – things that everyone presumably agrees are desirable
(such as work, saving, investment, and entrepreneurship)."
In other words, it’s probably
safe to say that Mayor Kenney has no regrets about the soda tax. He’s
just not pleased that he can’t blame merchants for the
price increase.
Even the IMF is Skeptical of
High Taxes [[ To the poor. Case in point Greece ]]
The International Monetary Fund, by contrast, may
actually have learned a real lesson that higher taxes aren’t always a good
idea. That bureaucracy is
infamous for blindly supporting tax increases, but if we can believe this
story from the Wall Street Journal, even those bureaucrats don’t
think additional tax hikes in Greece would be a
good idea.
All things considered, Greece is a
painful example that a country can’t tax its way to prosperity (though some
politicians never
learned that lesson).
Moreover, it’s nice to have further evidence that even the IMF
recognizes that Greece is
on the wrong side of the Laffer
Curve.
And if a left-leaning bureaucracy is now willing to admit that excessive taxation can lead to
less revenue, maybe eventually the Republicans on Capitol Hill will
install people at the Joint
Committee on Taxation who also understand this elementary
insight.
[[ What elementary
insight ? : that taxing the rich is not only
an elemental principle of justice and ethics (8 super-billonaires in one side
and billion of people leaving in extreme levels of poverty), it is also a way
to prevent that the explosive inequality break up –smash them and place the
entire State-Nation in danger. FDR understood so in 1936 & make a new deal:
tax the rich via Glass-Steagal Act. ] ]
…
Source
of the above art: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-18/soda-police-just-learned-valuable-lesson-about-taxes
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
China is now main enemy of our oligarchy.. NOT OURS.. Any
distortion of reality is valid to them
"While there is a strong view that
President Elec Trump’s “getting hard on China” stance will be a huge positive
for the steel industry, BASED ON THE NUMBERS, we would argue that this was
accomplished during Obama’s two-term presidency"
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"We
see that there is a need for adaptation," NATO's Supreme
Allied Commander Transformation General Denis Mercier said Tuesday,
acknowledging that NATO has
"some structures that are obsolete."
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"I want to be loud and clear: populism scares me... policy makers need to 'man-up' and pay for the social
cohesion that we need to keep our societies advancing... it probably means more redistribution than we have
in place at the moment and accept that this may be a higher tax burden on people..."
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It is time to "acknowledge the fact"
that "US allies have grossly interfered in America’s internal affairs, in
the election campaign" Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov
said."We noticed that Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Theresa May, and
other European leaders" did so and "demonized" Donald Trump
during the election campaign.
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Speaking to Bloomberg TV in Davos, JPM
CEO Jamie Dimon said “the euro zone may not
survive,” and added that "what went wrong
is going wrong for everybody, not just going wrong for Britain, but in some
ways it looks like they’re kind of doubling down."
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DEMOCRACY NOW
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Xi Jinping Steps Up With Charm Offensive By Pepe Escobar
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Remember Don Siegelman By Paul Craig Roberts
The most decent man
in Alabama public life.
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COUNTER PUNCH
Charles Pierson Drone
Proliferation Ramps Up
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Obama Refuses to Confirm Whether US Is Seeking Assange's
Extradition
https://sputniknews.com/world/201701181049742617-obama-refuses-us-assange-extradition/
https://sputniknews.com/world/201701181049742617-obama-refuses-us-assange-extradition/
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NASA to Rely on Russian Shuttles for ISS Missions Until 2019
https://sputniknews.com/us/201701181049743894-nasa-rely-russian-shuttles-iss/
https://sputniknews.com/us/201701181049743894-nasa-rely-russian-shuttles-iss/
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Obama Says Progress on LGBT Matters in US Is Irreversible
https://sputniknews.com/us/201701191049749833-oabma-lgbt-not-reversed/
https://sputniknews.com/us/201701191049749833-oabma-lgbt-not-reversed/
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Over 40% of Syrian Child Refugees Missing Out on School -
UNICEF
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201701191049749679-forty-percent-syrian-kids-miss-school/
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201701191049749679-forty-percent-syrian-kids-miss-school/
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Will
NATO’s “Operation Atlantic Resolve” Be The Trigger For WW3 With Russia? By BrandonTurbeville.com
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Posted on January 18, 2017 by Charles
Hugh Smith
Suddenly everybody is referring
to the Deep State, typically without offering much of a definition.
The general definition is the unelected government that
continues making and implementing policy regardless of who is in elected office.
I have been writing about this
structure for 10 years and studying it from the outside for 40
years. Back in 2007, I called it the Elite Maintaining and Extending Global
Dominance, which is a more concise description of the structure than Deep
State. Going to War with the
Political Elite You Have (May 14, 2007).
I’ve used this simplified chart
to explain the basic structure of the Deep State, which is the
complex network of state-funded and/or controlled institutions, agencies,
foundations, university research projects, media ties, etc.
The key point here is you can’t
separate these network nodes: you cannot separate DARPA, the
national labs (nukes, energy, etc.), the National Science Foundation, DoD
(Department of Defense), the National Security State (alphabet soup of
intelligence/black budget agencies: CIA, NSA, DIA, etc.), Silicon Valley and
the research universities: they are all tied together by funding, information
flows, personnel and a thousand other connections.
For the past few years, I have
been suggesting there is a profound split in the Deep State that is not just
about power or ideology, but about the nature and future of National Security: in
other words, what policies and priorities are actually weakening or threatening
the long-term security of the United States?
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Gracias a Assange y la Nacion que
presiono en favor de HR:
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Ecuador, la capital electoral de América
Latina Alfredo Serrano
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PRESS TV
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Es el AIPAC
y su yerno quienes dicen esa mentira
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White House admits Obama's failure on Guantanamo
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