miércoles, 18 de enero de 2017

JAN 18 17 SIT EC y POL



JAN  18 17  SIT EC y POL

ZERO HEDGE, BLOOMBERG & WS-J 
ECONOMICS



As President Obama held his last press conference this afternoon, basking in the warm afterglow of an over-sampled poll showing his favorability near record highs, it would appear he (and the press corps) forgot to mention that for most Americans - the 80% in production and nonsupervisory roles - this morning's data showed real wages actually dropping for the first time since 2013. Not exactly the rosy picture of economic growth being spun by the media as Obama transitions to Trump.
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Want to know why US stocks feel so fragile?  Perhaps we can blame Wall Street analysts.  Even after two months of market buzz about lower taxes, infrastructure spending and less regulation juicing investor expectations for better earnings growth, they refuse to bump their revenue or earnings estimates for 2017.
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Huge difference between perception and reality

December was a fitting end to a difficult year for hedge funds: the single largest month of outfles in 2016, December also marked the sixth month of outflows in the last seven, and resulted in Q4 not only being the fifth consecutive quarter of redemptions, but also the largest quarterly outflow from the industry since Q1 2009. 
As JPM's equity strategist explains in a note summarizing active manager performance, 2016 was one of the most challenging years for active equity managers with only 32% of fundamental and quantitative funds outperforming their benchmarks. JPM estimates that large cap U.S. fundamental managers underperformed by a median 33 bp before fees, with Value managers outperforming (+0.77 bp vs. benchmark) and Growth managers underperforming (-79 bp vs. benchmark).



In more bad news for the buyside, JPM notes that even though (or perhaps because) the market finished up more than 9%, US equity funds saw net ~$50 billion outflows in 2016 and a record rotation from Active to Passive. Investors pulled ~$200 billion from active US equity funds. This is the single largest annual rotation out of active management. Meanwhile, passive equity funds (including ETFs) captured ~$150 billion of inflows.

  • Bond funds saw $118 billion inflows in 2016 as equity funds saw $43 billion in outflows (driven by redemptions from active equity funds).
  • Active equity funds lost a cumulative $198 billion in 2016 outflows as passive equity funds received $153 billion of inflows.


Meanwhile, as the chart on the left shows, gund flows highlight significant post-election rotation. The global search for yield in 2016 drove large bond fund inflows funded by equity outflows, though this trend reversed after the U.S. election. Since the election, equity funds have seen $52 billion in inflows, and bond funds $10 billion in outflows. Reflation-linked sectors saw the largest inflows while Healthcare and Discretionary experienced the largest outflows.

To summarize, redemptions in 2016 were the industry’s largest since 2009, and the third year on record where investors removed more than they allocated.

To summarize, redemptions in 2016 were the industry’s largest since 2009, and the third year on record where investors removed more than they allocated.
And while the industry is not going to disappear any time soon, with hedge fund assets ending 2016 at $3.042 trillion, or an increase of $13.9 billion, the performance gains of $119.9 billion offset investor outflows which surpassed $100 billion.

The report's conclusion:
Investor flows for 2016 resembled an industry in crisis. They were similar to mid-2011 and 2012 in persistence, but dwarfed outflows seen during the European sovereign crisis in magnitude. They were below the levels seen during the aftermath of the great financial crisis, but have been much more persistent.
 
And so, to all the smartest guys in the room, good luck.

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Yellen takes to the stage at the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco to explain what "the goals of monetary policy are... and how we pursue them." We can't wait to hear how increasing asset prices to untenable levels, depriving savers of income, and driving the largest wedge between rich and poor since the great depression have been part of the solution...
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Extrapolate At Your Own Risk  [[ Here the opposite view. 1 ]]


Since 2012, the S&P 500 has risen almost 70% while earnings are up a mere 2%...
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[[ opposite view  2 ]]


Despite spiking ISM and PMI 'soft' survey data, US Manufacturing output stagnated for the 14th month in a row in December with a mere 0.2% rise year-over-year (amid downward revisions), notably less than the expected 0.4% rise.
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The Dollar Index surged higher today rebounding from its biggest drop since July with its biggest spike since the election today following Trump/Ross comments on NAFTA and extended by Yellen's comments late on regarding rate hikes... (and we suspect with Xi leaving Davos, China currency strength was unwound)  See image at:  http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/17/20170118_EOD1_1_0.jpg

The Dow dropped... (The Dow is down 4 shocking days in a row - the longest losing streak since the election)


As not even Goldman Sachs could rescue bank stocks... (the last two days were the worst for Goldman since Brexit)  See image at:  http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/17/20170118_EOD6_0.jpg
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China knew that both crisis (Ec recession and ww3) will convert US Treasuries into toilet paper


China dumped a whopping $66.4 billion in US Treasuries in its 6th consecutive monthly sale of US paper, and the biggest monthly selloff since December 2011. The monthly sale also brings China's total Treasury holdings to the lowest level since early 2010.
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El  Mercado global sigue salvando las empresas en quiebra al interior. Case: Netflix

Forget the negative cash-flow, forget the ongoing and rising cost of content, and forget the fact that Netflix slashed its domestic subscriber growth expectations; .. the record is high because earnings and revenues met expectations at international level .. subscriber growth soared.
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POLITICS

Butcher “ethics” : change me the victim!. He tortured both of them. He deserves been indicted

"Mr. Assange welcomes the announcement that Ms. Manning's sentence will be reduced and she will be released in May, but this is well short of what he sought.  Mr. Assange had called for Chelsea Manning to receive clemency and be released immediately."
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Deal was: H won’t participate in politics.. If so, she be indicted (email scandal).. She is above the Law.

Like a nagging case of "pneumonia" that brings with it random, yet inevitable, bouts of full-body paralysis, the rumors/threats of Hillary tossing her hat in the ring for the New York City Mayoral race simply won't go away.
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Rather than being the bad guys, as per the usual Liberal world-view, the Armed Forces may well play a key role in reducing the utterly toxic influence of neocon-neoliberals within the Deep State.
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"I’m hoping that if leftists see how tax hikes are “successful” in discouraging things that they think are bad (such as consumers buying sugary soda or foreigners buying property), then maybe they’ll realize it’s not such a good idea to tax – and therefore discourage – things that everyone presumably agrees are desirable (such as work, saving, investment, and entrepreneurship)."

In other words, it’s probably safe to say that Mayor Kenney has no regrets about the soda tax. He’s just not pleased that he can’t blame merchants for the price increase.

Even the IMF is Skeptical of High Taxes  [[ To the poor. Case in point Greece ]]

The International Monetary Fund, by contrast, may actually have learned a real lesson that higher taxes aren’t always a good idea. That bureaucracy is infamous for blindly supporting tax increases, but if we can believe this story from the Wall Street Journal, even those bureaucrats don’t think additional tax hikes in Greece would be a good idea.

All things considered, Greece is a painful example that a country can’t tax its way to prosperity (though some politicians never learned that lesson).
Moreover, it’s nice to have further evidence that even the IMF recognizes that Greece is on the wrong side of the Laffer Curve.
And if a left-leaning bureaucracy is now willing to admit that excessive taxation can lead to less revenue, maybe eventually the Republicans on Capitol Hill will install people at the Joint Committee on Taxation who also understand this elementary insight.

[[ What  elementary insight ? : that taxing the rich is not only an elemental principle of justice and ethics (8 super-billonaires in one side and billion of people leaving in extreme levels of poverty), it is also a way to prevent that the explosive inequality break up –smash them and place the entire State-Nation in danger. FDR understood so in 1936 & make a new deal: tax the rich via Glass-Steagal Act. ] ]
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WORLD ISSUES and ME

China is now main enemy of our oligarchy.. NOT OURS.. Any distortion of  reality is valid to them


"While there is a strong view that President Elec Trump’s “getting hard on China” stance will be a huge positive for the steel industry, BASED ON THE NUMBERS, we would argue that this was accomplished during Obama’s two-term presidency"
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"We see that there is a need for adaptation," NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Transformation General Denis Mercier said Tuesday, acknowledging that NATO has "some structures that are obsolete."
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"I want to be loud and clear: populism scares me... policy makers need to 'man-up' and pay for the social cohesion that we need to keep our societies advancing... it probably means more redistribution than we have in place at the moment and accept that this may be a higher tax burden on people..."
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It is time to "acknowledge the fact" that "US allies have grossly interfered in America’s internal affairs, in the election campaign" Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said."We noticed that Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Theresa May, and other European leaders" did so and "demonized" Donald Trump during the election campaign.
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Speaking to Bloomberg TV in Davos, JPM CEO Jamie Dimon saidthe euro zone may not survive,” and added that "what went wrong is going wrong for everybody, not just going wrong for Britain, but in some ways it looks like they’re kind of doubling down."
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DEMOCRACY NOW


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GLOBAL RESEARCH


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE


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Remember Don Siegelman  By Paul Craig Roberts
The most decent man in Alabama public life.
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COUNTER PUNCH


Charles Pierson  Drone Proliferation Ramps Up
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS


Obama Refuses to Confirm Whether US Is Seeking Assange's Extradition
https://sputniknews.com/world/201701181049742617-obama-refuses-us-assange-extradition/
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NASA to Rely on Russian Shuttles for ISS Missions Until 2019
https://sputniknews.com/us/201701181049743894-nasa-rely-russian-shuttles-iss/ 
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Obama Says Progress on LGBT Matters in US Is Irreversible
https://sputniknews.com/us/201701191049749833-oabma-lgbt-not-reversed/
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Over 40% of Syrian Child Refugees Missing Out on School - UNICEF
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201701191049749679-forty-percent-syrian-kids-miss-school/
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG


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Suddenly everybody is referring to the Deep State, typically without offering much of a definition.
The general definition is the unelected government that continues making and implementing policy regardless of who is in elected office.

I have been writing about this structure for 10 years and studying it from the outside for 40 years. Back in 2007, I called it the Elite Maintaining and Extending Global Dominance, which is a more concise description of the structure than Deep State. Going to War with the Political Elite You Have (May 14, 2007).

I’ve used this simplified chart to explain the basic structure of the Deep State, which is the complex network of state-funded and/or controlled institutions, agencies, foundations, university research projects, media ties, etc.

The key point here is you can’t separate these network nodes: you cannot separate DARPA, the national labs (nukes, energy, etc.), the National Science Foundation, DoD (Department of Defense), the National Security State (alphabet soup of intelligence/black budget agencies: CIA, NSA, DIA, etc.), Silicon Valley and the research universities: they are all tied together by funding, information flows, personnel and a thousand other connections.


For the past few years, I have been suggesting there is a profound split in the Deep State that is not just about power or ideology, but about the nature and future of National Security: in other words, what policies and priorities are actually weakening or threatening the long-term security of the United States?
Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH


Gracias a Assange y la Nacion que presiono en favor de HR:
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Perú   Puente Piedra, la punta del iceberg  Gustavo Espinoza M.
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EE.UU.  -La ascensión del trumpismo  Barry Sheppard
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PRESS TV


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Es el AIPAC  y su yerno quienes dicen esa mentira
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