JAN 20 17 SIT EC y POL
ZERO HEDGE, BLOOMBERG & WS-J
ECONOMICS
It
cannot be merely coincidental that the incomes and wealth of the top 5% have
pulled away from the stagnating 95% in the 25 years dominated by
neocon-neoliberalism.
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While most are well aware that President Obama
is leaving office having almost doubled the national debt during his 'reign',
the more concerning fact is that this debt-splosion came with the weakest
economic recovery in US history. What this means
simply is that Obama is handing Trump
the 'riskiest' America since World War II as debt-to-GDP is the highest
since Truman.
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Trump recently said, “We will no longer surrender this country, or its people, to the false
song of globalism.” In our view, there’s only one way Trump could
fight the global elites and their SDR plan: return the dollar to some sort of gold backing.
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"In
this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government
is the problem." - Ronald Reagan, First
Inaugural Address, Jan. 20, 1981
Then there are simply
the headwinds that currently face the economy from demographics to structural
issues as well as the age of the current economic cycle. Economics and political policies don’t exist
in a vacuum. While Trump has many ideas to promote growth in the
economy, the debt, tighter monetary policies, and budget constraints will
provide some offsets.
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While there are many
hopes from Wall Street, economists and analysts the current bull market is only
in the midst of a long-term run higher, there
are many conditions which currently suggest caution;
particularly if you are close to retirement.
Here is what I am
reading this weekend.
Trump
- Trump, South China Sea & Potential For War by James Rickards via Daily Reckoning
- Yellen: We Are Close To Goals & Set To Hike by Akin Oyedele via BI
- Gundlach: Trump, Fed & Stocks by Bob Bryan via Business Insider
- Trump FAQ For Davos by Rob Cox via Reuters
- America’s Growth Depends On The Trump We Get by Alexis Christoforous via Yahoo
- Hayek Warning For Trump by Cass Sunstein via Bloomberg
- No, The Dollar Isn’t Too Strong by John Tamny via RCM
- Trump Vs. The U.S. Dollar by Anthony Mirhaydari via Fiscal Times
- Will Trump’s Hiring Freeze Test Regulators Independence by Aaron Klein via RCM
- Trump, Corporatism & Dearth Of Innovation by Edmund Phelps via Project Syndicate
- Will Trump Be Pro-Monopoly? by Justin Talbot-Zorn via RCM
- The Coming Corporate Tax Reform by Milton Ezrati via City Journal
- Economists Are The Barrier To An America That Is Great by Jeffrey Snider via RCM
- Mapping Trumps 100-Day Executive Action by Clyde Crews via Forbes
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Markets / Fed
- Yellen Explains Monetary Policy – Seriously by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- What Happens To Stocks After Inauguration by Greg Guenthner via Daily Reckoning
- Illusions Driving Up U.S. Asset Prices by Robert Shiller via Project Syndicate
- Dimon: Like The Trump Rally, Just Wait by Matthew Belvedere via CNBC
- Hedge Funds Making Extreme Bets On Trump by Matt Turner via BI
- Bond Bear Already Looks Shaky by Scott Dorf via Bloomberg
- Trump Will Volatility Great Again by Doug Kass via Real Clear Markets
- U.S. Markets: Alarm Bells Are Ringing by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man blog
- 4-Risks For 2017 by Jeffrey Kleintop via Charles Schwab
- Here’s How To Play The Trump Presidency by Rachael Levy via BI
- Why Goldman Is Pessimistic On Stocks In 2017 by Sara Sjolin via MarketWatch
- How The Trump Rally Stacks Up by William Watts via MarketWatch
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Interesting Reads
- Retailing In America: Bricks & Torture by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong
- Davos Thinks It Runs The World by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
- 25-34 Year Olds – Now & Then by Linette Lopez via BI
- Why Is the Pre & Post-Market Trading by Neil Irwin via NYT
- Student Debt Walloping Mom & Grandma by Abha Bhattarai via Washington Post
- Presidents Have Less Economic Power Than You Think by Neil Irwin via NYT
- Deci: Relationship Between Need & Motivation by Shane Parrish via Farnam Street
- 4-Words You Are Supposed To Hate by Richard Rosso via RIA
- Student Debt Payback Far Worse Than Believed by Andrea Fuller via WSJ
- These Are The Top 10 Infrastructure Projects For Trump by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- 14 Experts Give Their Best Advice by R.J. Weiss, CFP via The Ways To Wealth
- Why I Sing Cassandra’s Song by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
- Potential Tailwind For Bonds by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
- Single Greatest Mistake Investors Make by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report
….
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Trump's actual swearing in (and speech) sparked
a notable drop in stocks and pop in VIX...But in a desperat attempt to keep The Dow green, VIX was monkey-hammered
The USD Index fell for the 4th
consecutive week (longest losing streak since Feb 2016)..
SOURCE: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-20/gold-pops-banks-bonds-greenback-drop-trump-takes-office
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If any
unexpected fundamental news should emerge that throw doubt on the beliefs so
widely held by market participants of late, a sizable surge in market
volatility is likely to ensue.
….
New Positioning Extremes
This time it concerns speculative positioning in treasury
futures. Below is a chart of the net hedger position (the inverse of the net
speculative position) in 10-year treasury note futures. It actually serves as a
proxy for the entire curve, as speculators have taken record net short
positions across they entire maturity spectrum, with the exception of the 30
year bond. Even euro-dollar net speculative shorts are at a new record high of
more than 2,444,000 contracts (equivalent to approx. 726,000 10 year treasury
contracts). Mish has a report
on the details here.
A new record high in the net hedger long position in
10 year treasury note futures and hence also in its inverse, the net
speculative short position – click to enlarge.
SUBTITLES
Real Interest Rates and Gold
Stock Market Internals and Risk Appetite
Conclusion
The recent extreme in
net speculative short positions in treasury futures is a warning sign for risk
assets – while it is per se not a bullish indicator for bonds, it
makes treasury notes and bonds very vulnerable to a sizable upside correction.
This is also confirmed by a decline in the five day average of the DSI (daily
sentiment index of futures traders), which stood at only 9.8% bulls in early
January.
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President Trump’s economic plan will create 25
million new jobs in next decade, “return to 4 percent annual economic growth,”
"lower rates for Americans in every tax bracket, simplify the tax code,
and reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate” according to a statement posted on the
White House wesbite.
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POLITICS
"Democratic
leaders are calling his election illegitimate, and most of the media wants Mr.
Trump to implode. No President since Nixon will face a more hostile
resistance in the press and permanent bureaucracy. Mr. Trump promised to disrupt the status quo,
and to succeed he will have to."
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Revisiting themes from his improbable campaign
victory, Trump said his presidency would aim to help struggling middle-class
families, build up the U.S. military and strengthen U.S. borders, while
transferring power from Washington and giving it back to "you, the people."
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President Trump’s brief inaugural speech was a
declaration of war against the entirety
of the American Ruling Establishment. All of it.. but it will take a
complete sea change to rectify the
course this country has been heading in the past eight years.
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Just hours after President Trump was sworn into
office, amid Chuck Schumer's jabs over HUD, the Senate has confirmed retired Marine General James Mattis
as defense secretary and retired Marine General John Kelly as homeland security
secretary. They were both expected to be confirmed easily, and were, but
Democrats promised fights over several
other nominees.
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CNN has been criticized for aring a report
entitled 'Disaster could put Obama
cabinet member in Oval Office', the report admits that there is no
specific threat targeting the inauguration, but goes on to speculate about “who would be in charge if
an attack hit the incoming president….just as the transfer of power is
underway”.
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
The
saying goes that a picture is worth a thousand words. Maps are worth many more.
Our
perspective on the world is rooted in an objective and unbiased approach to
examining geography and power. These four maps are especially helpful in
thinking about the geopolitical forces that will shape the world in the year
ahead.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
President Donald Trump Inauguration Speech Video and Transcript
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COUNTER PUNCH
Andrew Levine When Was
America Great?
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Steve Horn Under
Tillerson, Exxon Maintained Ties with Saudi Arabia, Despite Dismal Human Rights
Record
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Dean Baker The
Economics of the Affordable Care Act
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Robert Fantina Trump:
What Changes and What Remains the Same
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Peter Lee The
Deep State and the Sex Tape: Martin Luther King, J. Edgar Hoover, and Thurgood
Marshall
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Localizing European Defense: 'NATO's Disintegration Has Already Begun' https://sputniknews.com/world/201701211049853112-nato-process-collapse-russia-trump/
RELATED
NATO's Military Buildup Close to Russia 'is Not About
Protecting' European Borders https://sputniknews.com/politics/201701181049724616-nato-buildup-russia/
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A New America? How US Policy Could Change Under Donald Trump https://sputniknews.com/world/201701211049849992-russia-trump-administration-policy-experts/
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'Ups and Downs': What the Obama Presidency Did to US-Turkey Relations
https://sputniknews.com/world/201701201049825751-washington-ankara-relations-obama-trump/
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Peskov on US Protests: Russia Opposes Meddling in Affairs of Other Countries https://sputniknews.com/world/201701211049853569-russia-us-protests/
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Posted on January 20, 2017 by Charles
Hugh Smith
One unexamined narrative I keep
hearing is: “OK, so neocon-neoliberalism was less than ideal, but Trump could
be much worse.” Let’s start by asking: would Syrian civilians agree with this
assessment? The basic idea in the
“OK, so neocon-neoliberalism was less than ideal, but Trump could be much
worse” narrative is that the modest problems created by neocon-neoliberalism
will pale next to what Trump will do, implying jackbooted Waffen SS troops will
soon be marching through America on Trump’s orders.
This narrative is yet another
example of American parochialism: since
neocon-neoliberalism didn’t cause American cities to be bombed and its
institutions demolished, it’s really not that bad.
Try telling that to the Iraqis, Libyans
and Syrians who have been on the receiving end of neocon-neoliberalism
policies. The reality is very
unpleasant: for those targeted by America’s neocon-neoliberalism, nothing
worse is imaginable, because the worst has already happened.
The cold reality is America’s 25
years of neocon-neoliberalism has been great for the top 5% and an unmitigated
disaster for everyone else in the U.S. and the nations it has targeted for
intervention.
Those defending the Democratic
Party’s 16 years of neocon-neoliberalism (Clinton and Obama) and the Republican
Party’s 8 years of neocon-neoliberalism (Bush) are defending a system that
benefited the few at the expense of the many.
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Trump presidente: las palabras y los
hechos Atilio A. Boron
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Empieza la era Trump... Ignacio
Ramonet
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Los presos que deja Obama Iroel Sánchez
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Nuevas formas de activismo feminista Miren Aranguren
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Trotsky, Siqueiros y el estalinismo Andrés de Francisco
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“Gasolinazo” o la génesis de una revolución? Aleksandro
Palomo Garrido
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Keiser
report 1021 "El capital va adonde mejor se
aprovecha y la mano de obra donde más barata resulta"
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PRESS TV
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May
to emphasize value of NATO to EU to Trump
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