MAR 17 16 SIT EC y POL
“For this former Republican, and
perhaps for others, the only choice will be to vote for Hillary Clinton. The
party cannot be saved, but the country still can be.” —Robert
Kagan
“I have a sense that she’s one of
the more competent members of the current administration and it would be
interesting to speculate about how she might perform were she to be president.”
—Dick Cheney
“I’ve known her for many years
now, and I respect her intellect. And she ran the State Department in the most
effective way that I’ve ever seen.” —Henry Kissinger
Nobody Beats This Record
- She says President Obama was wrong not to launch missile strikes on Syria in 2013.
- She pushed hard for the overthrow of Qadaffi in 2011.
- She supported the coup government in Honduras in 2009.
- She has backed escalation and prolongation of war in Afghanistan.
- She voted for the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
- She skillfully promoted the White House justification for the war on Iraq.
- She does not hesitate to back the use of drones for targeted killing.
- She has consistently backed the military initiatives of Israel.
- She was not ashamed to laugh at the killing of Qadaffi.
- She has not hesitated to warn that she could obliterate Iran.
- She is not afraid to antagonize Russia.
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ZERO
HEDGE
ECONOMMICS
If there is any doubt as to the confusion inside the FOMC,
one needs only to examine its models. The latest updated projections make a
full mockery of both monetary policy and the theory that guides it. Ferbus
and the rest don’t buy the labor market story, either, which is why the Fed can
only be hesitant at best about “normalization.” Coming from the (neo or
not) Keynesian persuasion, what is showing up should never happen. by
Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,
VERY
NICE GRAPHS and explanation on false
employment official data & its effects
The theoretical
notion of recovery is very straightforward in orthodox economics. In recession,
the economy starts with high unemployment and therefore low inflation. Using
the Phillips Curve as a short-term guide, orthodox models assume that as levels
of unemployment begin to normalize, output (GDP) will rise. That will occur
first without any uptick in inflation as the “slack” produced by the recession
keeps price pressures to a minimum.
See
graft. Llocation: http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ABOOK-Mar-2016-FOMC-Model-Basics1.jpg
In Stage 1
everything is easy, so long as you can gain forward momentum in unemployment or
output (which is what the QE’s were supposed to accomplish with regard to theoretical notions of hysteresis). Stage 2 gets slightly
more complicated as the economy nears or reaches “full employment.” At that
point, inflation should start to rise which will moderate output growth. If
it progresses too far, that means the economy has reached “overheating” whereby
inflation gets out of control and actively suppresses output, even reversing
employment gains.
See
graft. Location: http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ABOOK-Mar-2016-FOMC-Model-Basics2.jpg
If the economy
and recovery has progressed sufficiently through Stage 2 to demand policy
action before overheating, we should see a concurrent rise in inflation as well
as output. The FOMC estimates show no such thing; worse, they estimate the
opposite for especially inflation, as modeled GDP projections continue to
muddle. That was true for not just CY 2015 as it was completed in full
disappointment, but now encompassing CY 2016 as well.
See graft.
Location http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ABOOK-Mar-2016-FOMC-2015-GDP.jpg
Both years start out in the earliest projections as they
should according to theory, or close enough to be plausible; GDP should
accelerate to at least something significantly better than the deficient output
expansion of the recent past. Instead, as time rolls forward, that
acceleration never materializes as GDP has stagnated around 2% year after year.
The March 2016 projections show yet again another year absent acceleration
in output (losing track of how many years in a row that would make).
In terms of inflation, the trends are even worse. See graft. Location: http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ABOOK-Mar-2016-FOMC-2015-PCE-1.jpg
That’s a huge problem because the unemployment rate –as officially
stated- only gets better and better at each forecast. Instead, as noted above, GDP growth never accelerated at all
– but the unemployment rate fell far faster than orthodox theory predicted
anyway. See graft. Location: http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ABOOK-Mar-2016-FOMC-2016-Unemployment.jpg
In other words, in late 2013 the models suggested
relatively modest GDP of 2.5% to 3.3% in 2016 which would bring unemployment
down also modestly to 5.4% and perhaps as high as 5.9%. That progress was
supposed to be closing in on full employment enough to propel inflation very
close to the 2% target for the PCE deflator. Instead, as of the March 2016
projections, the unemployment rate is expected to be enormously lower at just
4.6% to 4.8%, but GDP still stuck (and being downgraded each quarter) at 2.1%
to 2.3% while inflation at the lower bound of the central tendency is 1%? One
of these factors really doesn’t add up even in this orthodox context.
It isn’t difficult to determine which one, as persistently
low calculated “inflation” is fully consistent with insufficient economic
growth (or worse) for the nth year in a row. It is the huge and
unexpected improvement in the unemployment rate blowing right on past “full employment”
almost two years faster than predicted that is completely out of line; this
“best jobs market in decades” that doesn’t project beyond really questionable BLS statistics.
That means the unemployment rate is so far out of
whack that the FOMC, a committee dedicated to believing in it above all else,
really cannot base monetary policy on the most basic Keynesian, Phillips Curve
assumptions. In fact, by count of even orthodox theory, the
unemployment rate cannot be real. It doesn’t take much survey outside of
these three variables to confirm the suspicion. As much as policymakers want
it to be meaningful and representative, the fact that their own models not only
fail to confirm it but openly refute it (with emphasis) is why Janet
Yellen is slow on the rate hikes even though she talks about the jobs market at
every opportunity (as if the unemployment rate as merely a number were,
rational expectations, itself a stimulant that QE never was or could be).
It was the best jobs market in decades that once again
finds nobody actually in it; not even the economists.
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Initial Jobless Claims 'Steady' At 42 Year Lows As ISM Services Employment Crashes. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/17/2016
Initial Jobless claims have hovered at near-42-year lows for
much of the last year, despite day after day of new "job cuts"
headlines - from energy to materials to tech unicorns. This week was no change
with claims at 265k - dropping from last week's orighinal 268k print but
rising from a revised 258k. To all of this exuberance we have just
one question - explain this!!
And we know manufacturing jobs are
collapsing?
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Stockman
Slams "Simple Janet"'s Incoherent Babble. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 03/17/2016
We now have an absolutely clear idea of why the Fed is
impaled on its own petard. At the end of the day, managed rates will prove
to be the ultimate destroyer of capitalism. They transform financial
markets from organizers and allocators of real capital and the savings of
producers and workers into gambling casinos which fuel massive speculative
bubbles.
IMAGE LOCATION: http://myf.red/g/3Osk/jpg/
..
In other words, if a recession has not already commenced, they are using up the recovery phase runaway real fast. But never mind the very real risk that the entire global economy is sliding into a deflationary contraction, and that normalization would then be put off indefinitely.
In other words, if a recession has not already commenced, they are using up the recovery phase runaway real fast. But never mind the very real risk that the entire global economy is sliding into a deflationary contraction, and that normalization would then be put off indefinitely.
At the end of the day, pegged
rates will prove to be the ultimate destroyer of capitalism.
They transform financial markets from organizers and allocators of
real capital and the savings of producers and workers into
gambling casinos which fuel massive speculative bubbles.
Until the blow.
Someone should tell Janet to let go of the petard.
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QUICK ECON NEWS
Silver
Soars Post-Fed As Gold Ratio Tumbles Most In 5 Months Submitted
by Tyler Durden
on 03/17/2016 : The
Gold/Silver ratio had reached extremely high levels
… Month-End Market Weakness Looms As Monetary Base Trumps Buybacks. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/17/2016
…
What
Happens To The Market Next: JPMorgan's Head Quant Explains. Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 03/17/2016
…
S&P
Turns Green For 2016 As "Average" Stock Reaches Key Technical
Resistance. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 03/17/2016
…
Increasingly
Inefficient Bubbles - "The Liquidations In August & January Are Just
The Start". Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 03/17/2016
….
"This
Is An Extremely Serious Problem" - Dollar Funding Shortage Hits Record In
Japan. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 03/17/2016 : "If it
continues widening, financial firms will need to reduce their overseas holdings
or diversify their investments into other regions."
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Bank
of America: "The Impact Of A Very Dovish Message Is Bad For Risk
Assets". Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 03/17/2016
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Initial
Jobless Claims 'Steady' At 42 Year Lows As ISM Services Employment Crashes.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/17/2016
Initial Jobless
claims have hovered at near-42-year lows for much of the last year, despite day
after day of new "job cuts" headlines - from energy to materials to
tech unicorns. This week was no change with claims at 265k - dropping from
last week's orighinal 268k print but rising from a revised 258k. To
all of this exuberance we have just one question - explain this!!
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Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 03/17/2016 - 07:43
- Global Stocks Slip Following Fed’s Cautious Tone (WSJ)
- Oil rallies towards $41, near 2016 high, on producer meeting (Reuters)
- Hamptons luxury home sales soften as Wall Street weakness takes a toll (Reuters)
- Obama picks centrist high court nominee; Republicans unmoved (Reuters)
- Allies See Challenges for Hillary Clinton in a General Election Campaign (WSJ)
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Another
Fed "Policy Error"? Dollar And Yields Tumble, Stocks Slide, Gold
Jumps. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 03/17/2016 : In the aftermath of the Fed's surprising
dovish announcement, overnight there has been a rather sudden repricing of
risk, which has seen European stocks and US equity futures stumble to roughly
where they were when the Fed unveiled its dovish surprise, while the dollar
collapse has continued, sparking deflationary fears resulting in treasury
yields plunging even as gold soars, all hinting at another Fed policy error. So
was that it for the Fed's latest intervention "halflife"? We don't
know, but we expect much confusion today over whether even the Fed has now run
out of dovish ammunition.
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POLITICS
The
Gloves Are Off: Trump Accuses Hillary Of Being "Involved In Corruption For
Most Of Her Professional Life".
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/17/2016 :
This is more than
your typical political ad hominem - this is a material allegation with
legal implications that goes to the core of Hillary's biggest weakness, her
trustworthiness or complete lack thereof, and Trump's charges will only
escalate from here on out, hopefully with actual examples.
..
..
[ Examples abound .. This will be a piece of cake for Trump if he
achieves either the neutrality of the corporate media or the broadcasting of C-SPAN.
The press should agree to toss a coin to define who will select the first
issue. If Trump get the chance, the first issue should be Foreign Police with
focus on war: case in point: Libya (he will focus on the issue “receiving money
form the Saudis to deposed Gadaffi”).
..
If he selected the 1st issue,
she will be free to select the 2nd one (or reverse) . Trump focus will be examining what she did in her position
as State secretary on the issue selected.. year by year. All he has do to is a-presenting the facts; b- ask her
YES-NOT .. if NOT present the evidence and accuse her of liar, & dishonest
and corrupt. The third issue for debate or round
will be on STUDENTES tuition: recent
e-mail should be used to confront her with Univ students. The fourth round should be focus on TPP
to confront her with the working classes. All of this should be related to: A- the funding corp who are in her list. The
one that I show before in my web from Snowden. And, B_To the system she is part
of, the stablishment, that need to be changed urgently.
Trump can introduce his
support to the Glass Steagall Act to punish corporate mafia speculators &
support to productive Capital. If she can resist one
more round, the final one will be the knocking down of Hillary. It should be
realted to her and Bill involved in a huge scandal that cost many life: The bombing
of Yugoslavia. He can introduce this issue with the killing of Berta Caceres in
HOND, saying that that is nothing comparing to the other case. Then he will be back to the issue criminal negligence & professional
inefficiency (health single payer issue) : the betrayal of many things she
offered as candidate before vs office job.
..
We should know that Hillary announced a huge demonstration
against him, Trump should prepare demonstration in every state he won solid
numbers y bring all of them to Washington. No -more blah-blah .. just tit
–for-tat on every action she takes, while announcing new adhesions to him.
..
On the other hand, the PEOPLE’s NATIONAL FRONT against the 1%
will announce its registration as Green Party or other progressive party
already registered. His party will do the same work above on every state and bring
their registered voters to the capital too. Money: self finance with Unions
support and progressive people donations. This is the coming “action” panorama”
for the next months. ]
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New Documents Reveal "Hillary Clinton Knew Her BlackBerry Wasn't Secure" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/17/2016
"The FBI and prosecutors ought to be very interested in
these new materials.”
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Anti-Trump
Groups Plot "Democracy Spring" - Largest Civil Disobedience Action Of
The Century. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 03/17/2016 Following
their apparently delusional belief in the "success" of Tuesday
night's violent protests, anti-Trump groups are plotting "Democracy
Spring" threatening "drama in Washington" with the "largest
civil disobedience action of the century."
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ME & WORLD ISSUES
Putin
& The Failure Of Washington's Propagandist Predictions. Submitted
by Tyler Durden
on 03/17/2016
The American presstitutes are captives of their own
propaganda and are now surprised at the failure of their propagandistic
predictions. Having stripped the Islamic State of offensive capability and
liberated Syria from the Washington-supported terrorists, Putin has now shifted
to diplomacy. If peace fails in Syria, the failure cannot be blamed on
Russia.
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"It's All F**ked": Brazil Descends Into Chaos As Rousseff, Lula Wiretaps Trigger Mass Protests. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/17/2016 : On Wednesday evening, it all fell apart in Brazil when the judge spearheading government corruption probes released wiretaps which seem to prove that Dilma Rousseff indeed appointed former President Lula to chief of staff in order to shield him from prosecution. When the tapes were released, Congress broke into a shouting match and Brazilians poured into the streets in 17 of 26 states calling for an overthrow of the government.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
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Russia’s
“Mission Accomplished” Moment in Syria.”Carefully Planned Masterstroke
vis-a-vis the US” By Tony Cartalucci,
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Withdrawal
from Syria? Russia will Continue Its Air Strikes against ISIS and Al Nusra.
Large Number of Russian Warplanes will Remain in Syria. By South Front
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‘Nobody
Predicted’ the Russian Syria Withdrawal. Except the Kremlin. Five Months Ago By Mark Nicholas
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WASHINGTON BLOG
How
to Escape the Purgatory of Minimum Wage/Part-Time Jobs. Posted
on March 17, 2016 by Charles Hugh Smith
Many young people are stuck in the purgatory of minimum
wage and/or part-time jobs: that
raises the question: how do you get out of minimum-wage purgatory?
The conventional answer is, “get another college degree.” Perhaps this once had some value, but this
now yields rapidly diminishing returns due to supply and demand: everyone else
seeking an escape from low-wage/part-time purgatory is pursuing the same
strategy, so there is an oversupply of over-credentialed job seekers.
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“For
this former Republican, and perhaps for others, the only choice will be to vote
for Hillary Clinton. The party cannot be saved, but the country still can be.”
—Robert Kagan
“I have a sense that she’s one
of the more competent members of the current administration and it would be
interesting to speculate about how she might perform were she to be president.”
—Dick Cheney
“I’ve
known her for many years now, and I respect her intellect. And she ran the
State Department in the most effective way that I’ve ever seen.” —Henry
Kissinger
Nobody Beats This Record
- She says President Obama was wrong not to launch missile strikes on Syria in 2013.
- She pushed hard for the overthrow of Qadaffi in 2011.
- She supported the coup government in Honduras in 2009.
- She has backed escalation and prolongation of war in Afghanistan.
- She voted for the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
- She skillfully promoted the White House justification for the war on Iraq.
- She does not hesitate to back the use of drones for targeted killing.
- She has consistently backed the military initiatives of Israel.
- She was not ashamed to laugh at the killing of Qadaffi.
- She has not hesitated to warn that she could obliterate Iran.
- She is not afraid to antagonize Russia.
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Before you read,
though, take a moment to watch less than two minutes of Donald Trump above,
from his victory speech after winning in Michigan and Mississippi. I’ve cued it
up to start at the remarks I want to highlight, Trump discussing our trade
deficit.
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Posted on March 16, 2016 by DavidSwanson
The Governor of
California has joked about building a wall all the way around his state if
Donald Trump becomes president of the other 49. Secession would not be a joke
had it not been given an undeserved bad name. It would not have that bad name
but for our universal acceptance of imperialism and of an overly simplistic
history of the U.S. Civil War.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
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US
Antes de su asesinato Berta Cáceres
denunció el apoyo de Hillary Clinton al golpe de Estado en Honduras. Amy Goodman y Juan
González
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PRESS TV
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