ND
MAR 4 19
SIT EC y POL
ND
denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO
HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
US Futures show the day's actions best as stocks gapped open overnight
after the WSJ trade headlines and then dumped at the cash open, not helped by
construction spending and McConnell headlines...
See
Chart:
Today was the worst day for the Dow since Jan 3rd before the panic
bid lifted everything back...
See
Chart:
Nasdaq futures tested the 200DMA.. [ up.. I don’t real collapse.. so far ]
See
Chart:
Tesla stocks hit a 5-mo low and caught down to bonds... [[ T
debacle: nothing new ]]
See
Chart:
VIX
topped 17 intraday, but compressed back as stocks bounced... [[so: Volat is OK]]
See Chart:
Bonds and stocks decoupled as the latter rebounded... [[ nothing new
either ]]
See
Chart:
Treasury yields fell on the day with the long-end outperforming...
See
Chart:
30Y yields [[ back
to yesterday]] fell around 4bps...
See
Chart:
The
Dollar { is up ] refused to be impacted by the
weakness in stocks
See Chart:
Gold extended its losses against the Yuan... [ see
la paja en ojo ajeno, as usual ]
See
Chart
[[ We are
OK.. far from
1937 ]] COINCIDENCE?
See Chart:
What happens next? [[ If this is the trend.. a logic
follow: Trump will win elections ]]
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by Tyler Durden Mon, 03/04/2019
Significant factor moves today look to be at the core of the larger
Index-level selloff with “Value” outperforming “Growth” again looking like
"patient zero" as a result of some violent risk exposure rebalancing.
While
the broader market is suffering from one of its biggest selloffs of 2019,
sparking worries that the "goldilocks rally" is finally over as
Goldman warned
over the weekend...
See Chart:
The
S&P 500 rallied sharply , with market pricing a dovish FED [[USD up, Tesla down ]]
Nomura's
Charlie McElligott once again focuses on what is taking place just beneath the
market's surface, and finds some violent moves in the form of significant
factor rotation which appear to be at the core of today's broader Index-level
selloff... with the Nomura
strategist's favorite “Value” over “Growth” imbalance
dynamic again looking like "patient zero" of today's slump.
As
McElligott - who recently correctly predicted the curve's acute steepening -
explains yet again, “Value” over “Growth” outperformance has become a standard pain-trade/de
facto “Momentum” factor unwind of multi-year consensual “slow-flation” macro
narrative positioning.
In this vein, the “Long
Growth, Short Value” consensual positioning dynamic of the past
5 years has been a critical performance driver for most equity funds over this
period, with “Long Growth, Short Value” effectively
becoming a market-neutral “Momentum” expression—which is why any
catalyst for a resurgence in “Value” is a constant
driver of fear for the majority of Equities players as it promptly leads to a
broader market selloff as the equilibrium of the market gets tipped — which
may also explain why such “reversal blasts” (and performance drawdowns) in
recent years periods of “Value over Growth” have all been incredibly
short-lived, "instead associated more with bouts of “Gross-Down”
stress/book unwinds as opposed to any sort of macro regime change which could
actually stick" according to the Nomura strategist.
However,
as we have covered in recent months, at the core of McElligott's 2019 trading
view is the belief that "the catalysts are now largely in-place for a US yield curve STEEPENING
over the coming 1Y + (featuring two very different but realistic scenarios for
either a bull- or bear- steepening, based upon “end-of-cycle slowdown”-
OR “reflation” / “cyclicals over defensives”- view)" which could
also conspire against said legacy “Long Growth, Short Value” factor positioning in a much “stickier” long-term fashion…
"because in this post-GFC regime, yield curve
steepening has correlated with strong “Value” factor performance against
“Growth”- and “Momentum”
of underperformance."
See
Chart:
Momentum
Factor Performance vs. Yield curve affects
However,
instead of being a representation of the “steepening”/macro regime change as
the near-term driver though (despite the 5s30s more than doubling from +21bps
in start Oct to the current +56bps), today’s behavior is most realistically related to the peak “Growth”
factor LONG proxy that is the “Software & Services” space
trading off -2% … including the “Most Crowded” basket down -2.8% in “1Y
Price Momentum Longs”
To
simplify his point, there are three things of note:
- Days when “Value” is outperfomring “Growth” /(i.e., long-short “Momentum”), like today, tend to be associated with negative broader stock performance, and today is just another expression of this
- This asymmetrical positioning dynamic with investors again crowded into “Growth” and short / underweight “Value” (as many view this current global CB “dovish pivot” as meaning that we are returning to a “low rates and flat curves in perpetuity” slowing-growth world) is now receiving a lot more attention though, because PMs, CIOs and other trigger-pullers are increasingly susceptible to this crowding risk; to this end, McElligott also writes that in over three months of client meetings, "the point of greatest concern/ interest has again centered around my view that the a longer-term US yield curve STEEPENING in 2019 will “knock-on” into the acceleration of this “VALUE” OVER “GROWTH” reversal dynamic within US Equities."
- Today’s trade could be about mitigating this factor exposure risk looking-out further down the road (the structural “US YIELD CURVE STEEPENING” trade) via today’s possible rebalancing-type flows, "thus we see the ensuing damage in crowded Growth-overweights like “Tech Momentum Longs” (-2.7%), “Cash / Assets Longs” (-2.6%) and “R&D / Sales Longs” (-2.4%) factors or Biotech (-1.9%), all of which is leaning on the performance on “long” books—in turn forcing “unwindy” type flows on the “short” side, with “Value” outperforming as it remains broadly underweighted / shorted."
Charlie's
appropriate conclusion:
"Factor exposures always seem to
matter more on the drawdown days"—Every
Equities PM ever
…
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo
democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge
cambio
"2019 sure has been a weird
year so far..."
The
real economy is literally falling to pieces right
in front of our eyes. Debt delinquencies
are at unprecedented levels, bankruptcies are soaring, retail stores are
closing at a record pace, this is the worst economy for farmers since
the early 1980s, exports are plummeting and a
brand new real estate crisis has now begun. Economic cancer is rapidly spreading throughout our country,
and the U.S. economy is deteriorating at the fastest pace that we have seen
since the last recession. So how long will it be before Wall Street catches up with economic
reality?
See
Fake-Figure:
The
retail industry is being hit particularly hard. At the end of last week,
major retailers announced 465
store closings in a single 48 hour period… And those closings already bring the grand
total for 2019 to “a
whopping 4,309 store closures”… Continue reading at:
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global
depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"In Australia every
indicator is blinking red... It’s a house of cards..."
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Is it a mere
coincidence? In recent history, from the Vietnam war
to the present, the month of March
has been chosen by Pentagon and NATO military planners as the “best month” to
go to war.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL
n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal
expansion via wars & danger of WW3
Self-declared Interim President Juan Guaido returned
to Venezuela Monday unmolested by the government he seeks to supplant. President
Nicolas Maduro won’t arrest Guaido because the real threat comes from foreign
intervention by the US, but even that is quickly losing currency among
opponents of the Bolivarian revolution.
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RELATED
Juan Guaido returns to Venezuela, daring government to arrest
him as coup plot continues to unfold [[ The
point is clear: MADURO IS NOT A DICTATOR
]]
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Patrick
More (PM) is not a co-founder of
Greenpeace Mov.. what he found are the financiers for the stupidities he
said against AOC. Those are the billionaires Koch brothers who need this type
of academic whores to continue the business of destroying the whole world. Trump
also need collectors of money like PM, Trump sponsor any business that destroy the
whole humanity starting with WMD, nukes and wars. He will be proud of being
godfather of PM. Dime con quien andas, te dire quien eres. Now is well known the
negative interaction of climate and chemical flows derived from combustion of fossil
fuels that are affecting our respiration and the climate change and the presence
of life. AOC is the type of lady who put
her finger on the nasty business of fossil fuels. Facts abound: flows of nitrates, phosphates
and carbon compounds sent to the atmosphere liberated methane (CH4) and CO2 (carbon) and that is that warms the
planet. This plus other emissions like sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides cause ‘acid rain’. Industrial emissions
deplete the ozone and also contribute to climate change. Not to mention the
emissions derived from wars abroad (DU -depleted Uranium among them) , studied
but not published yet. All these factors are affecting the global chemistry of
climate, as J.W Maurits said. This is what AOC has put her finger on. It
doesn’t matter what the academic whores said on her. She has the reason and
vitality to continue her work. We must respect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC).
….
….
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SHOWS
RT
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat
Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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Col Ent a A
García Procesos
de diálogo y negociación del ELN
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep
on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
Julian Assange Prisoner Says No To Big Brother By John Pilger
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Trump – Kim Summit in Hanoi – Was Trump
forced to Walk? By Peter Koenig
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Ven - Guyaidó Returns Only To Again Be
Ignored
By Moon Of Alabama
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Giving the Bomb to Saudi Arabia’s Dr.
Strangelove
By Chris Hedges
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Single Mother of Three Arrested, Thrown in
Jail—Over Unpaid Medical Bill
By Matt Agorist Her crime was having a heart attack. Only in America
By Matt Agorist Her crime was having a heart attack. Only in America
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis
on US Politics & Geopolitics
Kenn Orphan The
Global Assault on Indigenous Peoples
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Jacob F. Lee Venezuela
and the Long History of U.S. Imperialism
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Elliot Sperber America
Doesn’t Exist
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics
& Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy
Goodman’s team
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PRESS TV
Resume
of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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