ND MAR 14
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle
y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over.
Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
World and US Economic situation: US
survive the wave! China’s central state takes total cont of
Econ & start the killing of financial parasites. Production competit is up.
Neoliberal ‘correction’ or Neolib “abandoned”
in China?
Dismal China data overnight did not help the fact that
China's 'National Team' appears to have abandoned investors...
See Chart:
US equity markets were
broadly lower on the day with some last-hour rally monkeys rescuing The Dow
briefly but a weak close sent everything lower( but a last second spurt of
buying held The Dow green on the day)...
See Chart:
S&P futures show a
series of lower lows and lower highs today... see bottom red
See Chart:
From stocks to bonds: here
is the 'seasonality' of the March Quad Witch - next week looks set to be
less-than-pretty...
See Chart: SPX Index
It remains a long way for
stocks to fall back to bond market reality...
See Chart
The compression of VIX and
Credit spreads has stalled...
See Chart:
Treasury yields were largely unchanged
across the curve once again today, but we do note the long-end saw some notable
underperformance. ..
With 30Y Yields bouncing off the 3.00% level...
See Chart:
The market is pricing in
14.5bps of rate-cuts in 2019 - the most dovish since the crash at the start of
the year...
See Chart:
The Dollar rebounded higher
today after 4 straight days lower...
WTI managed more gains
today, after an early dip, but traded in a very tight range around $58.50 for
much of the afternoon... See
Bottom red
See Chart:
... Finally,
we wonder what happens next week as the momentum-chasing muppets of Quad-Witch
evaporate…
….
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"The more astute among
you will already notice that the
net result of this scheme is, essentially, the very same as QE..."
Recently,
speaking at a monetary policy forum, Randall Quarles -chairs the
Financial Stability Board- made what sounds like a
very odd claim:
Occasionally we hear that
banks feel they are under supervisory pressure to satisfy their [high-quality
liquid assets] with reserves rather than Treasury securities…. that’s not the
case… I don’t think we should have an official preference for reserves.
What he’s
really trying to say is that bankers are telling him,
and presumably FRBNY, that they are worried about the level of bank reserves. The Fed is
reducing that level as it winds down its four prior QE’s. As assets runoff the
asset side of its balance sheet, unless something offsetting is done the
remainder on the liability side, bank reserves, must fall by an equal amount.
See Chart:
What the Vice Chairman is trying to
say, then, by claiming banks are worried about preferring reserves over UST’s
is that they are nervous about the current level of reserves as insufficient
for all scenarios, even less-than-adverse ones. According to him, they’ve been
forced into choosing bank reserves (conveniently explaining
QT). Somehow, though, despite this presumed preference for what the Fed
offers, banks haven’t been able to buy UST’s (or lease them) fast enough.
See Charts:
US Depository Institutions (assets) vs. Primary Dealers Net UST Position
Chart 1: Assets
Chart 2: Primary Dealers
The Dallas
Fed’s Richard Fisher who shall hereafter be known only as the
monetary head fake guy. He demonstrates here that he actually doesn’t know
how bank reserves work, so no surprise he was faked out by them.
Which brings us all back to
the real issue behind everything. The system didn’t need reserves before 2008,
which is why voting members of the FOMC by 2011 really weren’t quite sure what
they were or how they worked. Never mind trying to define exactly what was used
as monetary alternatives during that period. Something,
a lot of things were used that were not bank
reserves.
See Chart 1:
See Chart 2:
Because assets were down and
credit up?
[ Final
comment or Conclusion: ]
We’ve all been taught since Econ 101
that Open Market Operations determine everything, starting with the interest
rate on money. There actually isn’t a
single interest rate on money, for one, and as the repo market’s
ongoing, eleven-year (and counting) plight keeps proving neither OMO’s nor
POMO’s have much effect especially at certain times. It’s like there is a whole other
independent monetary system that doesn’t work the way everyone seems to still
think.
Maybe one day, if we are lucky, one
enterprising honest official will go back and revisit Mr. English’s 2011
dichotomy and really absorbs what it would’ve meant, and could still mean.
…
Read more and see more
charts at:
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"We suspect the median dot moves down from the two
hikes they signaled in December to either no hikes or one hike for this year.
We see somewhat higher odds of zero than one....We are now inclined to think
the Fed is on hold for the rest of the year."
JPM says that it continues to look for
a hike in late 2020. This reflects three judgments, in descending order of
confidence:
- first, over time positive output gaps generate inflation,
- second, the nominal neutral funds rate is higher than 2.40%, and therefore
- third, growth will generally be above trend in the coming year and a half.
See Chart:
Jan 2020 Rate Cuts Odds
And even following JPM's dovish
capitulation, which now leaves Morgan Stanley as the sole hawk on the street,
expecting a total of 4 more rate hikes, the market
appears to have made up its mind, and as of today, the Fed Funds' implied odds
of a rate cut in the January 2020 meeting have risen to 34.4%, roughly 10% more
than just earlier
this week...
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-14/jpmorgan-capitulates-no-longer-expects-rate-hikes-2019
…
RELATED:
Between the anticipated drop in dealer long gamma
positioning after this Friday expiry Moran mentions + drop in buyback activity
during the blackout window, 2 major “vol dampening” forces will be gone.
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... recessions occurred shortly after
C&I loans peaked within the “Danger Zone.”
Total outstanding U.S. commercial and
industrial loans have increased by 92% in the current cycle, which surpasses
the 80% increase during the mid-2000s cycle and the 88% increase during the
late-1990s cycle:
See Chart:
One
way of determining when the C&I loan cycle (and, therefore, the overall
economic cycle) is nearing its end is by charting total outstanding commercial
and industrial loans as a percentage of GDP. When
C&I loans are at 10% of GDP or higher (the “Danger Zone”), that is
typically a sign that the cycle is long in the tooth and about to tip over into
a recession. According to the chart below, recessions occurred shortly after
C&I loans peaked within the “Danger Zone.” C&I loans are
currently in that zone, which I see as further confirmation that we are in a
Fed-driven economic bubble that will end badly.
See Chart:
US Comercial n Industrial Loans (% od
GDP)
The current C&I loan cycle has
been more powerful and longer-lasting than the prior two cycles because the Fed
has held interest rates at record low levels for a record length of time. As the chart below shows, credit booms and bubbles form
during low interest rate periods (low interest rates encourage borrowing):
See Chart:
The U.S. corporate debt market (which is mostly in the form of bonds instead loans) is
telling a similar message as commercial and industrial loans, as I recently
discussed. TO SUMMARIZE, ultra-low bond
yields over the past decade have encouraged a corporate borrowing bubble that
has also been funding the stock buyback boom. As a result, total outstanding U.S. corporate debt has
increased by $3 trillion or 45% since the last peak in 2008. U.S. corporate debt is now at an all-time high of over 46% of
GDP, which is even worse than the
levels reached during the dot-com bubble and mid-2000s housing bubble.
See Chart:
I
am fully aware that both C&I loans and corporate debt may reach a higher
percentage of GDP in this cycle due to how low interest rates are. Still, it is
important to be aware of the risks that are building up and not be
complacent. When the Fed and other central banks hold interest rates at low
levels, they create market distortions and encourage malinvestment or unwise
lending decisions that would not otherwise occur in a normal interest rate
environment. These malinvestments are revealed once interest rates are raised
and the economic cycle turns (read my
piece about this in Forbes). A tremendous amount of
malinvestment has accumulated after a decade of artificially low interest
rates, which is going to result in serious pain when the cycle inevitably turns
– make no mistake about that.
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-14/ci-loans-enter-danger-zone
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Time
will reveal that nothing is truly free, including democracy and the public
good. Those dependent on central state
patronage will discover thatcentralization
has entered diminishing returns on its way to dissolution and ruin...
See Chart:
…
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
As
expected...
…
[[ QUE SE
VAYAN TODOS!: Why? Because there is luck of
vision, ineficiencia y corruption in both parties (Dems & Reps). We don’t
need these parties anymore. Las mayorías
nacionales no están con ellos.. son independientes. Lo dijo un pool nacional
pero con un muestreo incompleto. La unica institución que puede salvarnos de la
violencia que viene son las Cortes Supremas de cada Estado. Ellos se encargarían
de org un sondeo Nacional.. Su universo serian los nuevos votantes en cada Estado (solo los
nuevos) y se les preguntaría si votarían por personas independientes o por
personajes de uno de los 2 Partidos (Dems & Reps). El resultado serviría
para determinar la proporción de votos que en cada estado le corresponde sea a los
2 Pdos o a los independientes. Asumiendo que el 60% vote a favor de Pdos y
el 40% a favor de independientes.. esa
seria la proporción que debe tener el nuevo sistema de poder en cada Estado. Si
más del 50% de los votantes votan contra los Pdos en el sondeo, en las
nuevas elecciones ya no se votaria por
Pdos sino solo por frentes independientes (nuevas org en lugar de Pdos). De esta forma nos
nuevos votantes decidirían el futuro político de la nación. Este sistema
se usa para seleccionar los jurors de una corte y se puede usar para elegir a
los nuevos políticos de la nación. Aquí no es el Pdo quien define el poder sino
el individuo (sus cualidades) y el apoyo que tiene de 1 Frente. Si incumple
sus promesas o incurre de delitos de ineficiencia y corrupcion, el frente lo
retira y elige a uno nuevo. Como
derrotar el sistema duopolico es el problema y esta podría ser una solución. Por
lo pronto: Que se vayan todos, es la
consigna que debe movernos hoy . Si los Jueces no quieren ayudar, el camino es la ABSTENCION y
la REVOLUCION. Esto requiere organizar brigadas
de acción directa y los FRENTES
populares.
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US- WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo
Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU,
Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
...any weakness in Chinese stocks should see yen
strength, especially through these crosses.
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"The world without work, where
everyone is free to self-actualize and get a gold star from teacher is the millennial dream..."
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The
Ethiopian flight showed "highly unusual descents followed by climbs".
See Charts:
…
RELATED:
“If they’re smart, they’re
going knocking on doors of
whatever ten airlines are considering buying narrow-body aircraft.”
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
COL ELN: Otra vez cierran las vías políticas
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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Keiser Report " bancos centr van a confiscar l
dinero de tus cuentas"
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PARA MAÑANA
INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
…
COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics &
Geopolitics
…
GLOBAL RESEARCH
…
DEMOCRACY NOW
…
PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by
Iranian observers..
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