ND MAR 11
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over.
Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
[[ We run the neoliberal Economy world-wide.. Our
central Banks R infestg the world ]]
The zombie infestation is so dangerous because it
has the possibility of precipitating the implosion of the ‘everything bubble’ central bankers have been inflating
for the past 10 years. All that is needed is an event that spooks
investors.
“They’re coming to get you, Barbara!”
Zombies were
introduced in the economic jargon by Caballero,
Hoshi and Kashyap (2008) when they described the unproductive and
indebted—yet still operating—firms in Japan as ”zombie
companies”. They found that, after the economic crash of the early
1990’s, instead of calling-in or refusing to refinance
existing debts, large Japanese banks kept lending flowing to otherwise
insolvent borrowers (aka zombies).
Zombies
companies restrict the entry of new, more productive
companies, diminish job creation in the economy and lock capital into
unproductive uses. In a word, they are a menace to the economy and society.
According to
current academic research, the biggest factor in the
creation of zombie companies is the health of banks. When they are
fragile and unable to cope with loan losses, banks
start to evergreen debtor
companies. That is, weak banks support ailing companies, which support
each other. This is why low interest rates foster
zombie creation. Low (or negative) interest rates make banks weaker,
by restricting their profits, and they provide cheap loans to zombie companies
to avert losses.
However,
there’s also another channel: money conjuring. When central banks enacted their QE programs,
it led to a fall in yields (and a rise in
prices) of the broad bond universe. For example,
the yields of US corporate bonds started to fall
immediately, despite the recession, after the Fed enacted its initial QE
program in November 2008
See Figure 1.
Yields of US AA
and BBB rates bonds . M1 2008-M1 2019
When QE
programs were extended, the resulting relentless search
for yield pushed investors to ever-riskier products, lowering their yields as
well, as we explained in Q-review
1/2018, and this artificial liquidity spread broadly through the capital
markets. This meant that even the riskier, i.e.
junk-rated companies were able to obtain funding from the capital markets at
very low rates. This enabled them to keep operating, intensifying the
zombification of the corporate sector.
Therefore, QE programs led to an increase in zombie companies both
through the banking sector and the capital markets. Central banks are thus
directly responsible for the global ‘zombie infestation’ and behind the
dangerous stagnation of the global productivity growth
See Figure 2.
Global and
Regional TFP Growth (%)
Fire starter?
According to
the Bank of
International Settlements, a downgrade of the vast BBB-rated corporate bond
universe in the US and in Europe could lead to a
liquidation fire-sale. Interest rates would skyrocket and, in the
worst case, “passive” investors panic-selling illiquid bond ETFs could create a bidless
market for corporate debt securities. This
would lead to the collapse of the whole corporate bond market taking the stock
market with it. A deep recession would instantly
follow.
The zombie
infestation is so dangerous because it has the possibility of precipitating the implosion of the ‘everything bubble’
central bankers have been inflating
for the past 10 years. ALL THAT IS NEEDED IS AN
EVENT THAT SPOOKS INVESTORS.
In the modern
inflated late cycle markets, this could be something very small, like a credit downgrade, or something larger, like the bankruptcy of a major company. All that is
needed is a spark, a ’Firestarter’, for the
firestorm to begin.
…
[[ la mecha esta
prendida ..el fuego de la guia avanza al centro, al detonant d TNT. Ya no es
posible cortar la guía.. el fuego está dentro de la masa de TNT.. inevit la
explosion ]]
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Not
only do the economic forecasts appear to be overly optimistic, they contradict
two of the basic tenets of the Administration's fiscal strategy in that
"tax cuts will produce faster growth" and "tax cuts will pay for
themselves in the longer run."
Submitted
by Joseph Carson,
former director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein.
President Trump's
2020 budget proposal has many story lines, but the main story is the "chaos" in the numbers. Not
only do the economic forecasts appear to be overly optimistic when compared to
consensus estimates, they contradict two of the basic tenets of the
Administration's fiscal strategy in that "tax cuts
will produce faster growth" and "tax cuts will pay for themselves in
the longer run."
See Chart:
2020 Budget Outlays below the historical
average. Share of GDP
At first glance, the 2020 budget does
appear to adhere to the story line that tax cuts generate faster growth. After
recording 2.9% growth in 2018, the Administration confidently predicts 3%, or a
little better, until 2024 and then growth inching down to 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8%
thereafter.
Yet, what is confusing about
the economic forecasts is that the Administration is predicting as much growth
in 2025 as what occurred in 2018, but last's year
economic growth was boosted by business and individual tax cuts and in 2025 individual tax cuts expire and full expensing of
business equipment had already expired in 2024.
So the question the Administration needs
to answer, "Do tax cuts
trigger faster growth, or don't they? " Their own economic forecasts
contradict their main argument on tax cuts as they are forecasting as much
growth when taxes rise as when they fall.
The other controversial issue is how the
faster growth scenario generates more revenue growth. Again, here too the
Administration's forecast on revenue runs counter to their basic premise. To be
sure, in 2017, the year before tax cuts took effect,
revenue as percent of GDP hit 17.4%. And according to the
Administration's forecast that ratio of revenue to GDP is not reached again
until 2024.
Yet, reaching that revenue threshold in
2024 is not because of economic growth, but instead it's due to a double-digit
surge in corporate tax payments as the full expensing of business equipment
expires. The
ratio of revenue to GDP moves up even more so in 2025, jumping to 17.6%, as the
tax rates on individuals reverse back to levels that existed in 2017.
[Conclusion: ]
So a fair read of the Administration's
economic and budget forecasts is that tax cuts don't
generate faster growth and tax increases lower the deficits. Confused?
So am I.
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"Sharing was
supposed to transform our world for the better. Instead, the only thing
we’re sharing is the mess it left behind..."
[[ This has nothing to do with coops & socialism..
it is just the opposite: a way of accommodating inside the neoliberal system by
using high tech net-works ]]
‘Sharing’ was supposed to save us. Instead, it
became a Trojan horse for a precarious economic future...
Sharing was supposed to
transform our world for the better. Instead, the only thing we’re sharing is
the mess it left behind.
Sharing didn’t deliver broad financial stability either.. Sharing doesn’t have the positive market
power it wielded 10 years ago…. It’s now about “platforms,” “on-demand
services,” or, most recently, “the gig economy.”
Some of sharing’s earliest, most outspoken champions
have distanced themselves from the term. Originally
launched in
2013 as “a grassroots organization to support the sharing economy
movement,” the nonprofit Peers purported to “grow, mainstream, and protect the
sharing economy,” essentially acting as a corporate lobby firm for sharing,
on-demand, and gig startups. Peers’ partners included Lyft, Airbnb, TaskRabbit,
Getaround, and dozens of other mostly for-profit companies.
By 2016, Peers had pivoted to portable
benefits — an infrastructure to sustain gig workers as they labored without
an employment safety net. Peers became “an
organization for people working in new ways,” and it merged
with the newly created Indy Worker Guild. Peers co-founder Natalie Foster went on
to co-found the
Economic Security Project, which lobbies for a new solution to help
struggling gig workers and job-havers alike: universal basic income.
In 2018, April Rinne, who previously pushed the
sharing economy’s promise of a “tighter social fabric,” acknowledged
“the dark side” of the sharing economy but
wrote that “the challenges faced by the sharing economy today are largely a
result of its success.” Rachel Botsman, who argued that sharing would allow us
to trust one another again, now writes
about how technologyand the concentration of power on large centralized
platforms has led to “an
erosion of trust.”
It turns out sharing “is not really a mass-market idea, which is sort of
depressing,” says Werbach, who’s pivoted Yerdle into a
logistics firm for large brands interested in re-selling their used goods.
“Kindergarten teachers are interested in that, but consumers are really
interested in what’s in it for them.”… “Now
there’s a whole consortium of
platform cooperatives,” says Orsi of the Sustainable Economies Law Center.
And
these companies don’t bank on sharing. Organizations like Loconomics, Fairbnb, and Stocksy see
their efforts at cooperative consumption and production less as altruism and
more as collectively owning the means of production.
And though
sharing is largely dead, other tech-driven models have taken its place:
VC-backed enterprises that still skate on the promise of solving
inequality, promoting
justice, fixing
broken systems, and doing what regulators and big, old businesses have
failed to do for decades.
These days, it’s not a shared drill that’s redefining trust and
supplanting institutional intermediaries; it’s
the blockchain. Botsman now says
that the blockchain is the next step in shifting trust from institutions to
strangers.
“Even though most people barely know what the
blockchain is, a decade or so from now, it will be like the internet,” she
writes. “We’ll wonder how society ever functioned without it.”
The ambitious promises
all sound very familiar.
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete;
it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
[[ In my opinion: We need
better polls asap: the universe has to
be separated into economic & political regions and
the samples has to be proportionally distributed ]]
Generation
Z and millennials are embracing socialistic policies and principles more
than ever… Young Americans are trapped with
insurmountable amounts of debt, low-paying gig-economy jobs… This helpless
generation will be 37% of the electorate in 2020 and more than 75% of
the workforce by the mid-2020s.
With no end to their financial troubles
in sight, 50% of younger Americans would prefer to live in a
socialist country.
To make matters worse, 37% of
Americans as a whole are now leaning towards a socialist over a
capitalist economy.
See Poll: Young Americans are
embracing socialism
Younger voters want universal healthcare, free college and the abolishment
of ICE than the electorate as a whole, per the Poll.
The poll identifies the top three voting issues on the side of socialism and liberal
politics vs. that of President Trump and conservative ideals.
- The top three voting issues for Gen Z, according to the Harris poll, are mass shootings, racial equality, and immigration policy and treatment of immigrants.
- Millennials' top issues are access to health care, global warming/climate change and mass shootings.
- Gen X's top issues are: access to health care, terrorism/national security and the national debt — the same top issues for boomers and older.
With younger generations financially penalized under QE to prevent the economy from a
deflationary collapse, the Fed may have inadvertently
transformed tens of millions of young Americans into socialist.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-11/six-years-qe-transformed-young-americans-socialist
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Americans view
homeownership as a desirable goal, most cannot afford to own due to
an affordability crisis, stagnant wage growth, and too much debt.
Millennial homeownership has
collapsed. About 1 in 3 millennials owned a home as of
2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That's a nine
percentage point drop than baby boomer homeownership rates at ages 25 to 34, signaling the American dream is becoming less affordable.
See Chart:
Young adult Home ownership
Although Americans view
homeownership as a desirable goal, most cannot afford to own due to
an affordability crisis, stagnant wage growth, and too much debt.
See Chart:
Negative Net Wealth
While home prices have continued to
outpace inflation, the rate of income growth has not kept up with
inflationary trends. Given that millennials are still in financial ruins, they offer a unique insight into an upcoming trend where
owning a home is not viewed as the American dream. What is even more
disturbing, millennials who already own want out.
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By
2036 we’ll have 76mm Millennials and 50mm Boomers. 59% of Millennials are
Democrats or lean that way while only 32% are Republican or lean that way.
Submitted by
Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management
Millennials will overtake
Boomers in 2019.
We’ll have 73mm Millennials (growing
through immigration) and 72mm Boomers (as America’s Most Selfish Generation
races to meet its maker). By 2036 we’ll have 76mm Millennials and 50mm Boomers.
59% of Millennials are Democrats or lean that way (only 32% are Republican or
lean that way). 49% of Millennial men are Dems or lean that way (41% are Reps
or lean that way). 70% of Millennial women are Dems or lean that way (23% are
Reps or lean that way). And these stunning gaps just keep widening.
See Chart:
Most millenials have mostly
liberal views. Silents remain most
conservative cohort
58% of Millennials express a clear preference
for big government. 79% believe immigrants strengthen the US, compared to just
56% of Baby Boomers. On foreign policy, 77% are far more likely than Boomers
(52%) to believe peace is best ensured by good diplomacy rather than military
strength. 67% want the state to provide universal healthcare, and 57% want
higher public spending and the provision of more public services, compared with
43% of Boomers. 66% of Millennials believe that the system unfairly favors
powerful interests.
See Chart: Generation gaps
“You endanger your majority by not doing
what got you into the majority,” said Ilhan Omar, Millennial
Congresswoman. “Republicans often are in tune with that, Democrats are
not.. When you are constantly trying to figure out how to appease everyone, you
end up not appeasing anyone.”
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2 SINGS OF FASCISM:
"In
their rise to power, they’ve bulldozed
competition..."
…
"The
link you tried to visit goes against our community standards."
[[ THOSE ARE DEFINITLY SIGNS OF
‘FASCISM’ ]]
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo
Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran
search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
The’re not beggars but don’t have house
property, they can move like gypsys & get a property if they are lucky to
buy it & pay taxes. The Honkonger’s dream is to own
an apartment in a new luxurious building created by the China Gvt. Now is ok a weel-H
Welcome
to life in the "world's
most unaffordable" housing market...
…
In the US
there are much more ‘steel shipping containers’ than in Hong Kong
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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Blackmail is
abuse of power, and submission to it is power
indecency
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Chaos inside US system of power: What
Pelosi has to do with geo-politics?
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This is another bol..it from Bolton.
VEN & Cuba laugh on him.. Guaido too
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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PARA MAÑANA
INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis:
neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that
leads to more business-wars from US-NATO
allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
Y
PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by
Iranian observers..
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