ND MAR 24
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social +
Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented
with graphics
The big
macro wheels are turning and everybody better pay very close attention...
The Reckoning is coming. Best hope for a substantive China trade deal and a last minute save on
Brexit to perhaps delay the inevitable: THE COMING RECESSION.
This week’s full frontal capitulation by the
Fed has not only removed a key buying carrot, but also
has brought about the inversion of the yield curve, a classic confirming
warning sign that a recession is coming. The
key question of course: The when and the how. Bulls
will want to hope the recession is at least another year or two away to engage
participants in a final game of musical chairs before the rug gets pulled. Bears will point to
structural forces and factors that suggest that a recession may come a lot
sooner than anyone expects.
Now onto markets:
Let’s me get something straight here: Bulls
continue to be wrong on the macro and bears continue to be right.
Fact: All the glorious
projections made by bulls about growth and
earnings continue to get overrun by the deteriorating macro reality. The same
folks that didn’t forecast the 2015/2016 earnings recession also didn’t predict
the 2019 earnings recession (or the 2018 20% market drubbing for that matter) and are once again clinging to dovish central banks to bail
them out.
And, up until Friday, this game has worked yet again:
See Chart:
Let’s call a spade .. spade: Without a complete policy flip flop by
the Fed $SPX wouldn’t be trading anywhere in 2019. Can we all just acknowledge
this?
Reminder: Guy Adami made this very point on CNBC Fast Money on
February 15th:
Listen
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/pCsfxFVtBls
Note that, over a month later, the $DJIA, small caps, banks,
transports are all lower now compared to the date of that clip.
On Dec 18 Trump said:
I hope the people
over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they
make yet another mistake. Also, don’t let the market
become any more illiquid than it already is. Stop with the 50 B’s. Feel the
market, don’t just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!
On January 4th Powell suddenly came out and signaled flexibility on
the balance sheet
On March 20th Powell announces the end of QT for September with an
immediate reduction for this summer.
The Fed gave Trump everything he demanded. The appearance is awful.
The point is not lost on others:
QT is now in effect over and QE will recommence in some form
at least by 2021 at the latest:
See Chart:
US-FED Balance Sheet
Assets ($Bn) 2007-2021F
The Fed will never “normalize”, the
ghosts of the financial crisis will remain in the system and 3 months of “non accommodative”
in 2018 have now been reverted to back to “accommodative” with no end in
sight.
The implication is obvious: The Fed gave up its independence, reacted
to political and market pressure and shot its credibility (whatever they
had left). And now the Fed may be at risk of becoming
subject to political partisanship with the nomination of Stephen Moore to the
Fed Board. “A respected economist” President Trump called him on
twitter.
I’m sorry, but Moore is neither an economist
nor is he respected. He’s a political hack and his track record on
economic policy is dismal and appears mostly politically driven.
I am concerned that a Fed without credibility is on the path to lose the
confidence of markets [market is here synonymous of
financial oligarchy, those who rule in WS ]. It’s a key risk factor to
watch if Moore actually manages to get confirmed (an open question).
But credit where credit it due: The Fed has
managed once again to jam up markets despite the continued deterioration in
everything macro. [ Y guess FDR was the other US Pres that didn’t allow the “market” took control
of the FED ]. Examples:
See Chart:
Softer Outlook: US Manufactuers in the mid-Atlantic are less
upbest
Earnings:
See Chart: Q1 2019: Growth
-3.7% earnings growth for Q1 2019.
And now an inversion of the yield curve (see video below for further discussion):
See Chart:
Yield curve Inversion: A good recession indicator
..and a record monthly deficit pre-recession:
See Chart: IN THE RED
The US post its biggest monthly budget deficit on record
Well done. Remember all the nonsense that was
peddled to the public about flowing milk and honey when the tax cut was pushed
through?
“Kudlow expects to defy expectations again with predictions
that the bill will not
add to the deficit but rather “pay for itself.”
“I think this thing is going to pan out better than almost anybody
thinks. The deficit is going to be
much lower,” Kudlow said. “This thing is going
to pay for itself.”
He also predicted an economic growth rate of about “3 to 4 percent,” saying it could spur
economic growth in other countries“.
The macro data above renders these declarations a poor joke.
Completely wrong. About everything. But none of this is a surprise. I had
outlined all this critically in the run up to the tax cut (Tax Cut Scam) as well as the
impending pain to come from these tax cuts (Tax Cut Recession).
So let’s be clear: The macro is developing
precisely how voices like myself have been outlining it to unfold and yields
and the bond market have been advertising this since the trend line on $TNX got
tagged last year:
See Chart:
And now we have an inverted yield curve with a US government forced to
finance trillion dollar deficits before a recession. And these funding
requirements will only balloon higher, as will interest on debt payments,
while they are now chasing slower growth right at the end of the
longest expansionary cycle in history.
WHO WON? Corporations ($AMZN pays zero taxes this year, $SPX 500 CEOs (Now clocking in a median MONTHLY salary of $1M, congrats),
and taxpayers get to foot the bill as benefits are on
the chopping block in this year’s budget proposals. Wealth inequality was bad, now it’s on rocket fuel. Any wonder why people are pissed off and political movements are start to
gravitate toward redistribution?
The Fed’s chasing reality, central banks are
hopelessly stuck with their bloated balance sheets with less ammunition to
react, a tax cut that has expanded wealth inequality and
government deficits, slowing growth everywhere
and an inverted yield curve. Buy stocks say the
folks who predicted none of this.
So I have to again ask: What has
changed since 2007?
The answer is nothing. Except more debt,
slower growth, more wealth inequality and now permanent dovish central banks.
So yes, best hope for a substantive China deal and a miraculous Brexit
resolution or the reckoning of all the artificial
liquidity excess of the past 10 years may unleash upon this globe much sooner
than anyone cares to imagine.
Now let’s review the charts and technicals:
For the latest public analysis
please visit NorthmanTrader.
…
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"...the window of opportunity for risky assets we highlighted
previously might have temporarily closed."
"US equity, bond and commodity markets appear to be pricing in on average close to
60% chance of a US recession over the coming year."
Since then recession odds have only risen, and soared in recent days following the inversion of the 3M-10Y curve, with
the Fed Funds market now pricing in 69% chance of a rate cut by the Jan 2020 FOMC meeting, indicating that the bond market is
now fully bracing for a recession.
See Chart:
….
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"...the Fed 'throwing in the towel' on rate
hikes is signaling a big problem
for the economy... Now, they are going to be desperate for inflation, and that
is very bullish for gold..."
Listen Video: https://youtu.be/1zX59jl_OkM
Read this:
Rickards says, “The Fed was tightening to get ready for the next
recession..."
"You need to cut interest rates somewhere between 4% and 5% to get
out of a recession. How do you cut interest rates 4% if you are only at 2.25%?
The answer is you can’t. You have to get to 4% before you can cut 4%, and
that’s what the Fed was trying to do...
How do you raise rates in
weakness to get ready for the next recession without causing the next recession
that you are preparing to cure? That was the conundrum. I never thought they would get it right...
and, as of now,
it looks like they didn’t get it right. Meaning, they tightened so much to
get ready for the next recession ..they slowed the economy.”
Rickards says, “Bernanke
painted them into a corner, and they can’t get out..."
"There is no
escape from the room. By
the way, one of the reasons gold is preforming so well, the Fed has proved that
they can’t get out of this. They got into it, but they can’t get out of it because every time
they try, they sink the stock market. They sink the housing market. They raise
the specter of recession. They slow economic growth. They don’t want that. So, they sort of pause and
maybe tiptoe back into it, but they really can’t get out of it.”
On gold, Rickards says, “People always say
there is not enough gold to support commerce and trade and the money supply. I
always remind them that is nonsense..."
"There’s always enough gold, it’s just a question of price. At the current level of around
$1,300 per ounce, that’s too low... What price does (support commerce and
trade)? So, if you take
. . . supply and say back it by 40%, divide by 33,000 tons, that comes to
$10,000 per ounce. Could it be higher? Sure...
...if you used a larger money supply, you would need a higher price. If
you would use a larger percentage . . . that would be a higher price. If you do that math, you can get to
$40,000 per ounce easily. I want to make this clear. These are actual
calculations based on actual numbers that are publicly available for money
supply. It’s not made up.
It’s not science fiction. It’s just a simple question. If you wanted to go to a gold
standard today without causing deflation, given the amount of gold and given
the amount of money, what would the price have to be? The answer on some very conservative
calculations would be $10,000 per ounce. . . . The time to buy gold is when
sentiment is low and people hate it. . . . So, the bull market is intact.
We are in the fourth year. Bull markets start off slow because of all
the bad sentiment, but then they gather momentum. So, it’s still not too late
to jump on this train, and my expectation is this will pick up...
The signal the gold
market is getting right now is the Fed is throwing in the towel. . . . They made some headway, but it came at a high cost because they
slowed the economy . . . and they can’t continue. . . . Now, they are going to be desperate for
inflation, and that is very bullish for gold.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with
best-selling author James Rickards as he prepares for the release of his next
book called “Aftermath:
Seven Secrets of Wealthy Preservation in the Coming Chaos.” To be released on July 23 2019.. $18 Hard Copy
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-24/rickards-warns-bernanke-painted-fed-corner-it-cant-get-out
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds &
corruption. Urge cambio
New
Green Deal Is Really New ; Real Green; and true Deal. Right title.. it should be
Private hand on it will distort its aim; make it
expensive & fully corrupted. To implement
the new green deal we have to dethrone the oligarchical neo-liberal parasites who are bringing current
recession & chaos to our system. We have to put States under control of
People Fronts & socialist rule.
….
The only Green New Deal that works is governments stepping aside and letting the
private sector deliver the technology and innovation
required. It is already happening…
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"Hopefully somebody’s going to be looking at the other side...where a lot of
bad things happened"
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Maxine Waters unavailable for
comment...
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"We know there was collusion...
Why there's been no indictments, we
don't know."
….
[[ I guess : MEULLER’ circus is over..
their clowns has to admitted & get a new job .. otherwise the FURER will
put them in jail ]]
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo
Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-,
D rest in limbo
“We assume
that Washington treats our priorities seriously, our approach and
warnings.”
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"The North American imperialism
wants to kill me."
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... there is far more behind Venezuela’s financial and energy problems than
corruption and mismanagement.
…
[[ Those who created the crisis in VEN .. wants to
offer “a solution” .. but there is
not solution they conclude. “The ‘socialistic approach’ (which is now
being advocated by some political candidates) seems to have some short-term
benefits, because it tends to keep the population happy–almost everyone seems
to have a minimum standard of living. But, over the long term,
this approach leads to the loss of the ability to maintain today’s high-tech
economy. This approach doesn’t prevent collapse either, because a lack of
investment and expertise eventually causes important parts of the system to
stop operating. “
VEN people do have a solution, a political one against
the political military intervention in their country: The civilian population
has been armed & organized to respond any invasion from the US coalition..
Once they try to do so, the US embassy will be closed, Guaido will be jailed
and other puppets too. If the US bomb Ven, they will respond with the help of
RU and China. ]]
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Washington
and Brussels could only look on helplessly as Italy become the first founding
EU member, and first G-7 nation, to join the accord...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on
neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist
imperial chaos
VIENTO SUR
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Maduro llamó "títere diabólico" a Guaidó y lo acusó de planear magnicid
- Rusia: US. planea el control de Ven para dictar condiciones a la OPEP
- "Una mancha de vergüenza": 20 años del bombardeo OTAN sobre Yugosl
- Los ecuatorianos a las urnas: ¿Qué eligen y por qué la controversia?
- Trump: "No hay colusión ni obstruc ¡Sigamos haciendo grande a América!"
- Completan todos los tramos de la parte ferroviaria del puente de Crimea
- "Memoria, Verdad y Justicia": Convoc marcha en Arg a 43 años del golpe
- La directora financ de Huawei tenía 3 Apple cuando fue detenida
- "Se nos acaba el tiempo": DA alerta del "fut catast" en nuevo documental
- Proyectos de integración en América Latina, ¿mecanismos rotos?
- El Zoom Norte-sur: desarrollo ante la desigualdad
- Especial Black lives: La verdad (Episodio 4)
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts
that favor WW3
- Trump Is America’s First Zionist President By Paul Craig Roberts
-Russian Lands Troops In Venezuela By
Reuters
- Countdown to “Full Spectrum Dominance” By T.J. Coles
- Mueller Report Is In. They Were Wrong. We
Were Right. By
Caitlin Johnstone
- It's official: Russiagate just destroyed it. By Matt Taibbi
- Henry A. Giroux: The Nightmare of Neoliberal
Fascism By Mark Karlin
- America’s Corruption Is a National Security
Threat By Stephen M. Walt
- The U.S. Deserves Its Own Nuremberg Trials By Robert Scheer
- The Meaning of Life - Sam Harris Watch
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars
from US-NATO allies
--Los pedos más hediondos del imperio vienen de
este payaso
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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