ND MAR 16 19 SIT
EC y POL
ND denounce
Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
It’s remarkable how well this trade
would have worked during all major
cyclical turns in the Chinese and global economyin the last 40 years!
Dear
Investors:
At Crescat
we remain positioned to capitalize on a downturn in the economic cycle. Global
equity markets peaked in January 2018 while US markets peaked in September
2018. Crescat’s hedge funds were two of the world’s top performing funds in
2018 as a result of our bearish macro views and positioning last year. We are confident that was only the
beginning of a downturn in asset prices from record global leverage and
central-bank-driven asset bubbles for this cycle.
US asset bubbles only just began to burst at the end of last year as one can
see in the chart below.
See Chart:
US
household Gross Asset to Disposable Income
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2019-03-16_10-00-57.png?itok=wqmvgCDo
How do we get to a recession? The US stock market and corporate credit bubble must burst first. That
is how the business cycle works. It started in the fourth quarter, but that was
only the beginning. How do bubbles burst? The smart money sells first from
record valuations, then the rest of the world follows. Note in the chart below
how insiders began selling heavily in early 2017. But the rest of the world did
not follow. The stock market kept going higher. So, they sold again in early
2018. That time, the stock market finally began to falter. Global stocks peaked
at that point for this cycle and kept going down. But the US market went to new
highs again in September 2018. Now insiders are selling heavily again in early 2019. The third time
should be the charm for the stubborn US market.
See Chart:
Buyer tuned Sellers
We
will lay out some of our current bearish timing indicators in the charts below.
The US twin budget and trade deficit is diverging from the S&P 500
signaling the likely peak of the stock market and business cycle on the heels
of the tax cut.
See Chart:
US
Twin deficits: GDP/ S&P 500
Meanwhile, US hard economic data is showing a sharp
deterioration in GDP in the current quarter.
See Chart:
The percentage of inversions in the US yield curve
is now close to 45%. The last two times the credit markets had such a high distortion, asset
bubbles began to fall apart shortly after. It’s also important to note how the
percentage of inversions was insignificantly low in 2016 when the business
cycle was extended. We strongly believe this is not
another 2016 soft-landing scenario, instead the beginning of a bear market.
See Chart:
%
of Inversions in US Yield Curve
As we have
shown extensively in our past analyses, China today is far and away the biggest Ponzi credit
bubble ever while the world remains largely oblivious to the risks.
We believe
China’s credit bubble is ready to burst.
In our
global macro fund, we
are short the Chinese currency, the yuan, as our primary way to express this
theme.
Imagine what an all-out yuan collapse would bring. A
Chinese currency crisis is inevitable in our analysis, and it’s overdue.
See Chart:
EM
Currencies vs. CNY
See more
Charts and comments
It’s remarkable how well this trade would have
worked during all major cyclical turns in the Chinese and global economy in the
last 40 years! This is a value-oriented macro trade that is likely to perform over
the next 1 to 3 years in a global economic downturn led by an imploding China.
The model explains roughly 75% of the basic positioning of our global macro
fund today. We believe that long gold in CNY terms versus short
global equities today could be the macro trade of the century!
See Chart:
Long Gold in CNY terms
vs. Short Global Stocks
Conclusion
Soon the buy-the-dip
mentality and bull-market greed will turn to fear. Selling will beget more
selling. That’s how bear markets work. There is so much more imminently ahead
for us to profit from on the short side of the market. The bear-market rally is
running out of steam!
The downturn is likely to be led by a China currency
and credit crisis with US stocks also falling from record valuations after a
record-long business cycle.
….
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"there’s no resurrection in
sight"
As ECRI shared with CNBC, the canary in the semiconductor-chip fab has already keeled over and – according to our
leading index – there’s no resurrection in sight.
See Chart:
SEMI Shipment
Breackdowm
…
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Essentially
freezing out anyone who does not conform
to the state’s version of the ideal citizen, the SCS is perhaps the most
frightening control system being rolled out today. That is, until you consider what is coming next.
Here’s how the Social Credit System operates in China.
First,
however, for those who are unaware of the Social Credit System as it operates
in China, we should briefly describe just what has taken place there. The Social Credit System in China isn’t merely a punishment for
criticizing the state as is the case in most totalitarian regimes, the SCS can
bring the hammer down for even the slightest infraction such as smoking in a
non-smoking zone.
One summary
of the SCS can be found in Business Insider’s article by Alexandra Ma entitled
“China has started ranking citizens with a creepy ‘social credit’ system —
here’s what you can do wrong, and the embarrassing, demeaning ways they can
punish you,” where Ma writes,
The Chinese state is setting up
a vast ranking system that will monitor the behavior of its enormous
population, and rank them all based on their “social credit.”
The “social credit system,” first
announced in 2014, aims to reinforce the idea that “keeping trust is glorious
and breaking trust is disgraceful,” according to a government document.
The program is due to be fully
operational nationwide by 2020, but is being piloted for millions of people
across the country already. The scheme will be mandatory.
At the moment the system is piecemeal —
some are run by city councils, others are scored by private tech platforms
which hold personal data.
Like private credit scores, a
person’s social score can move up and down depending on their behavior. The
exact methodology is a secret — but examples of infractions include bad
driving, smoking in non-smoking zones, buying too many video games and posting
fake news online. (source)
Continue reading
the full art at:
…
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
49 people were just ruthlessly gunned down at two
mosques in
the city of Christchurch, New Zealand and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is using it as an opportunity to mock God...
…
She is not mocking God idiot.. Panteist believe in god (the sun & mather earth or
nature) and they don’t pray to god ..and if they pray they don’t mention the
word god. God is for us the accessory
part of self-reconstruction. Panteists follow and respect laws governing the relation
between humans & nature and between humans and other humans (there is a
brochure with quotations selected from Teology of Liberation from the bible
& other scripsts). Panteists are not
even against praying.. Simply : praying by itself doesn’t give a good relation
between humans & human vs.nature. Praying is an individual act that serve 2
purposes. 1- self-correction: or self promise of not committing self mistake twice.
2- will power:
Pray create a self-will power to improve a good relation bet humans
& nature. Better if the praying comes with holding the hands of your
partner. How we did it? Before sleeping my wife use to kneeling in the bed and ask me
to stay on my knees too (it didn’t happens every day), then she read some parts
of the Bible (the brochure with quotes selected by Teology of Liberation, a Mov
born in Peru with Gustavo Gutierrez) This
brochure I got in Nicaragua.. After reading she remain quiet for 2 to 5 minutes
with her hands touching each other (like prayers in a church) and then she hold
my hand for other 2 to 5 minutes. The 1st time it happens I asked
her why the hold of my hand in silence .. because it gives me power & will
to make things better. I must never ask her what was the reason of her praying.
Don you think this is breaking our marriage pact of not follow any religion and
politics and to preserve our own secrets .. especially in front of our
children?. NO, she said, panteism is not
a religion & is no politics. Our secrets is part our own personality. My
children will have their own religion and politics if they wanted, later on,
and they will have their personality too
that we must respected forever. I would say that my wife and me feels good
after she pray. Is the usual Christian GOD in it?.. I haven’t seen it. We are
not ateists, that is clear and more clear even that we do not mock any other
god. We are not servants of god, & god doesn’t serve us as instrument either.
We do build & preserve our own integrity and never ever use “God” to demonize others. (AOC mock god,
said this art). That is childish &
ridiculous. AOC may no be panteist , but not one has the right to insult her
and use the word ‘God’ to cover their stupidity.
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The bill
makes no mention of how the state
will enforce the law..
…
[ Owners of
power have their secret.. People too: where & how to hide it ]
====
RELATED:
"let’s
get back at them..."
…
[
This is real America.. everybody has to be armed to defend it.. It is the Law ]
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US-WORLD
ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global
Wars)
Global
depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
The
US seized 1 million pounds (454 metric tons) of pork smuggled from China to the
port of New Jersey in the "largest-ever seizure of agricultural products
in the US" amid fears the meat could contain traces of the African swine
fever virus.
….
[[ A los puercos.. con
puercos se los mata.. ]]
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"You should not assume that
you still have or will get a visa."
…
[[ Time to change the whole sede of UN
to China or indep EU country ]]
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The number of immigrants
apprehended with their family in fiscal year 2019 so far (October-February) has
also exceeded the record for most
family apprehensions in a whole year, set in FY2018.
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“They’re
pulling wires, air conditioners, pipes... they’re literally running off with the roof.’’
…
[[ Who went to hell is guaido & its
puppeteers..their interv is deem to fail ]]
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n
GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion
via wars & danger of WW3
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[[ Chanchos del mismo chiquero dicen: La unión hace la fuerza ]]
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SHOWS RT
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am
search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
===
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Investigan viajes al extranjero de Brenton Tarrant, el tirador de N Z
- Importante grupo de 'hackers' confirma a candid demóc O'Rourke
- La 'máqu del tiempo' existe y su autor cuenta el "increíble" proyecto
-Keiser
Report ¿Vuelve
la lucha contra los monopolios?
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics
& Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS
TV
Resume of
Global News described by Iranian observers..
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===
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