Wed
SEP 5 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone
State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know
it, they documented with graphics
Just keep
buying, everyone else is...
US Equities were mixed -
The Dow clung to unchanged all day as Nasdaq was battered (supposedly on
regulatory concerns from the Congressional hearings)...
Futures had dipped overnight - mainly during the European session, then NASDAQ snapped at
the US Cash open...
See Chart:
Tech is notably underperforming
financials in September...
See Chart:
Is this the start of stocks' catch down
to VIX...
See Chart:
FAANG Stocks were ugly..
See Chart:
And TSLA dropped another 3% to 3-month
lows... and TSLA bonds hit a new
low...pushing the bond's yield above 8% - almost as bad as Turkey! Meanwhile German electric Mercedes capture the market
See Chart:
The Dollar ended the day lower -
breaking a four-day win streak
See Chart:
Yuan remains stable...
WTI Crude slipped lower (below $69)
ahead of tonight's inventory data but PMs and copper limped higher on a modest
USD drop...
See Chart:
Gold futures managed to scramble back
above $1200...
See Chart:
So is this is
the start of the meanest reversion in US stocks to the reality of many other
global markets?
See Chart:
….
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SOURCE:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-05/us-tech-wrecks-cryptos-crash-global-contagion-spreads
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As long as
global CBs insist on reducing liquidity while simultaneously attempting to
raise cost of capital, victims would continue to float to the surface,
starting with weaker players but then gradually spreading to the sturdier
corners.
Don't look now - or
look - but while the US stock market trades just shy of
all time highs, absent the occasional hiccup in the mighty FANGs, the rout
across emerging markets is now the longest since the global financial crisis,
or specifically 222 days for stocks, 155 days for currencies, and 240 days for
local government bonds.
The duration of each
selloff - as calculated by Bloomberg -
had taken even the most ardent bears by surprise because "not one of the seven biggest selloffs since the financial
crisis - including the so-called taper tantrum - inflicted such pain for so
long on the developing world”
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/EM%20crisis%20duration.jpg?itok=DpMuheZs
We estimate that the
global liquidity growth now stands at less than 5% (not enough to cover global
GDP; providing nothing for assets) while US$ liquidity
is turning deeply negative, thus supporting US$.
See CHART:
…
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2008 has
special significance for gold bugs, both because of the money they lost in
August of that year and the money they made in the half-decade that
followed. Today’s world is beginning to feel eerily similar.
See Chart:
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-05/gold-and-silver-are-acting-its-2008-they-may-be-right
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"Our Bull/Bear market indicator is flashing
red" -
Goldman
Sachs
See Chart:
Our economists have
shown that there are good examples of long expansions, such as in Australia
from 1992 to the present, the UK from 1992 to 2008, Canada from 1992 to 2008
and Japan from 1975 to 1992. Typically they find that a flatter Phillips curve, stronger financial regulation and a lack of
financial imbalances are all good indicators that a long cycle is more
likely. On this later point, the signs are quite positive.
See Chart:
Aligned to
this point, we can see that inflation
targeting and independent central banks have both contributed to lower macro
volatility and longer expansion phases in economic cycles since the 1980s.
See Chart:
So on the surface, while
admitting we are overdue for a crash, Goldman spins the narrative into
positioning what happens next not as a crash, but as a
period of lower returns, adding that a sharp bear market in the absence of a recession is unlikely, and
that generally equities rise when economic growth is positive:
... using US equity
market data, the probability of negative annual equity returns falls
dramatically as real GDP (lagged by 2Q) rises. So, for
example, the probability of negative year-on-year returns when real GDP is
between 1% and 2.5% is just 31%.
See Chart:
The not so good news, is that as Goldman admits,
with monetary and fiscal policy having thrown everything at the 2008 global
financial crisis, "even if the next economic
downturn turns out to be mild, it may prove difficult to reverse."
As a result, we may go back to an environment dominated
by concerns over secular stagnation, for which Goldman lists two reasons:
1.
The US has already expanded fiscal
policy and its debt levels and budget deficit are rising, which could make it
difficult to find room for significant easing. The federal deficit
will increase from $825bn (4.1% of GDP) to $1,250bn (5.5% of GDP) by 2021. By
2028, it is expected to rise to $2.05 trillion (7.0% of GDP). This would leave
federal debt at 105% of GDP in ten years, 9pp higher than CBO’s latest
projections.
2.
There may be room for US interest rates to be cut in the next
downturn but less so
than in other downturns. Also, European interest rates may still be at or close to
zero when the next US downturn hits. The same would be true for Japan.
In other words, while
Goldman's indicators suggest a crash is imminent, the bank redirects the
discussion to a period of low returns and secular stagnation, which
while eliminating the threat of an imminent collapse presents even greater
concerns about investing in the current market.
Most ominously, the bank admits that "the combination
of constrained fiscal policy headroom in the US and limited room to cut
interest rates in Japan and Europe may well dampen the ability to generate a
strong coordinated policy response to any downturn, and also make it harder to
get out of such a downturn."
Said otherwise, whether
the next crash is sharp and "cathartic" or slow and extended, the
problem is what happens next, because as even Goldman now admits, the ammo to
kick start the US and global economy has already been used up.
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge
cambiarlo
"Private
US businesses are not building
new facilities, or renovating old ones, at a rate that suggests the economy is
doing well. Let alonebooming..."
See Chart:
….
See more charts at:
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"...the
House proposal, worked out in talks with the White House budget office, falls short of the total $23 billion
Trump has sought..."
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GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS
[[ La jungla esta
hambrienta (no hay USD para todos), la bestia mayor no puede Gov.. Los Geopis
se quieren comer entre ellos. Y las hainas Dems están contentas pero no tienen líder,
la pedo-Clint ya no sirve para eso (demasiado hediondo ese cadáver).Todo el
sistema Neoliberal es una vergüenza y para cubrirla no quieren que exista nadie
que la cuente: solo el WW3 los salvaría. Y
Que si RU-Chi+ aliados lanzan el 1st strike? Que si el US-UK +ISR lo hacen y
son cogidos por la respuest automática de radares satelitales. Como controlar eso? Cierto, al inicio habría jubilo
chovinista del Penta y su NATO.. Luego vendría lo peor: el corte de las 4 patas al perro rabioso; las patas delanteras ya
exhaustas (US-UK) y las traseras (Israel y Saudis) tendría que hacerse en 24
horas y aunque ya todo está instalado para ello, hay percances de último minuto
difíciles de predecir que dilatarían el suicidio del imperio. Lo veremos!. ]]
Un ejemplo:
"Go back to your bath house!"
….
RELATED
"[M]any of the senior officials in
his own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate parts of
his agenda and his worst inclinations."
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“The Deep State is real... They
don’t like exposure, accountability or responsibility. They fight back, outlast and work the system
for their advantage..."
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The bill's acronym is a direct dig at
Bezos and stands for Bad Employers
by Zeroing Out Subsidies Act.It seeks to establish a 100% tax on
government benefits received by workers at companies with at least 500
employees.
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol &
global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search
for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
"The next financial crisis will
spark the Great Liquidity Crisis. The next crisis is also likely to result in
social tensions similar to those witnessed 50 years ago in 1968."
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"Don’t
blame the Fed or Trump. That is just noise.The problem of emerging markets is largely self-inflicted and comes after
years of raising imbalances, both at a trade and fiscal level,
based on impossible expectations
of growth and demand."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US
inside GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
Trump lambasted an
op-ed published in the New York Times by an "anonymous senior Trump
administration official" as a disgrace on Wednesday afternoon after the
opinion writer claimed to be working on behalf of "the Resistance"
movement to thwart Trump's agenda.
"He's part of 'the Resistance' within the Trump
administration," Trump told reporters at the White House. "This
is what we have to deal with and the dishonest media… it's
really a disgrace."
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am NEW FOCUS: alternat to neo-fascist
regimes, breaks to HR, Peace & support to US-terrorism
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El poder se deslegitimo. Gane quien gane pierde
la dictadura y Lula
será el gran vencedor. No pidió boicot ni
Abst, porqu el pueblo ya lo
sabe. Lula es real encarnación Popular. No
hay pretexto alguno para
tenerlo en la cárcel. SI LO HACEN, CAE EL GOBIERNO EN EL PODER.
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Lucha social Muere Elisa Serna, símbolo de la canción
protesta
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MX Como son millonarios? Privatización, despojo y explotación
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El desarrollo de la conciencia popul toma su tiempo pero llega.
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El Titanic se hunde porque no tiene capitán y el grupo que lo
asesora perdió la brújula. No
saben adonde ir. Hay que
abandonar esa barca y no hay
bote salva-vidas para todos.
…
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism &
internal conflicts that favor WW3
IDF Confirms: Israel Provided Weapons, Cash
to Syrian "Rebels"
By ICH and Jerusalem Post
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Pompeo Pumps Idlib Diplomacy By Finian Cunningham Continue
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Ellsberg Says Assange, as a Journalist, Can’t
Be Tried Under Espionage Act By
Consortium News
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John McCain as Metaphoric Myth By Edward Curtin Continue
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The Slaves Rebel By Chris Hedges Continue
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
K Zeese - M Flowers Tenth
Anniversary Of Financial Collapse, Preparing For The Next Crash
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Nick Pemberton Crazy
Rich Imperialists?
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to
more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol
crisis he creates
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian
observers..
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