Mon SEP 24 18
SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over.
Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
China was closed overnight, but China stocks ETF in US shows weakness
after China cancels trade talks...
US futures show the initial
reaction was lower on Sunday night, then as the US cash markets opened, S&P and Dow were dumped but Nasdaq was panic-bid (underperformer last week). S&P/Dow legged lower again on
Rosenstein headlines then rebounded after headlines that Trump will meet him on
Thursday...
See Chart:
For a sense of today's manic
algo-buying, here are FANG
stocks...opened gap down to last week's lows then ramping almost 4% off those
lows to erase all of last week's losses...
See Chart:
The 10Y Yield rose on the day to a new
cycle closing high, but as the chart below shows, the
last few days' ranges have been de minimus (as stocks have pumped and
dumped)... (3.055%, 3.063%, 3.063%, 3.063%, 3.081%)
See Chart:
The Dollar Index had quite a
day, sliding lower as Europe opened (China closed), spiked lower on EUR gains
after Draghi inflation comments, only to surge higher for rest of day on safety
concerns following Rosenstein resignation headlines...
See Chart:
The Brazilian Real slumped
(worst performer of the day) as the left-wing Workers' Party is said likely to
reach the runoff vote in Brazil's election.. [ cause
alleged is stupid invention ]
See Chart:
Argentine Peso was pummeled
after returning to Lagarde to ask The IMF for more...
See Chart:
Finally, we note that Money
Market Funds have dramatically shifted their allocations from Q1 (record buying
in US Treasuries) to Q2 (record selling in US Treasuries)..
See Chart:
However, as Bloomberg points out, The
Federal Reserve’s latest reading on America’s finances showed that money-market
mutual funds were the biggest buyers of Treasuries in the first half of 2018,
according to Jay Barry, a fixed-income strategist at JPMorgan Chase
& Co. The central bank’s quarterly financial accounts data showed
the funds, which favor Treasury bills, purchased a net $118 billion of the
government’s debt in the period. That’s a swing from 2017, when they sold $95 billion. The buying
dovetailed with the government’s bias toward bill sales in the first half as it boosted borrowing to finance a widening deficit,
Barry said.
….
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-24/us-bonds-stocks-slump-china-trade-tensions-trump-turmoil
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"That risk may not be existential, but it is a
deadly risk to American prosperity, our
way of life, our leadership in the world and perhaps to our system of government..."
The
politics of division imposes an invisible cost to the Nation. Divisive politics
inherently mean that almost no common ground exists for action on issues of
great importance, and falling into the chasm between the two parties are
calamitous dangers to national security that make our actual headlines today
pale in comparison. One such
danger in the political no-man’s-land is not even being discussed, and so no
one is working on a solution: the national debt.
Almost ten years ago, Admiral Mike Mullen,
then Chairman of the Joints Chiefs of Staff, did not identify
an adversary nation or terrorist organization as the paramount threat to our
country. He stated
emphatically: “The
most significant threat to our national security is our debt.”
See
Chart:
As America is saddled with more and more debt, it
becomes more and more vulnerable, less ready to act and certainly looks weaker.
What
did we get for all of this debt?
Not more
national security.
Not
better infrastructure.
Not a solution
to stressed retirement and health systems.
The bitter medicine for addressing the national
debt is the politically untenable combination of increasing taxes and
decreasing expenditures. No other avenue exists. But the first deficit that must be addressed
is one of leadership. Until our political leaders move the national debt to a
central focus, view it as a threat to national security, and work for immediate
and yet long-term non-partisan solutions, the U.S. is at risk. That
risk may not be existential, but it is a deadly risk to American prosperity,
our way of life, our leadership in the world and perhaps to our system of
government.
….
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"Like a snake blind to the fact it is
devouring its own body, the same
factors that appear stabilizing can reverse into chaos..."
See Picture
By
now you know the story, a routine decline in equities caused a liquidity
squeeze in retail-dominated short VIX products resulting in a self-reflexive
spiral of buying pressure. At the end of the trading session, the VIX levered and short ETPs
required more vega notional exposure than was available in the entire market,
resulting in a feedback loop. The VIX registered the second largest draw up
(+177%) and single largest drawdown (-43% over 5 days) in its 28-year history
over a two-week span. During this wild round-trip to nowhere, the popular short
VIX exchange traded products (“XIV”) were wiped out and many strategies that
have consistently made money lost years of profits in an hour.
See Chart:
The
volatility spike in February is widely misunderstood... it was not a
“volatility event” but instead a “liquidity crisis” resulting in rapid
repricing of tail risk. Put simply, it
was the moment where many ignorant market players learned what ‘water’ really
is. During a true volatility event implied
variance and demand for options increases across the board. Fixed strike and
at-the-money volatility actually moved more in January (+3.5%) than it did in
February (+3%). The early-February spike in VIX was driven by unprecedented
demand for far out-of-the-money S&P 500 index puts, or tail options. Normally these options comprise
about 10% of the VIX price, but in early February these tail risk options
comprised upward of 35% of the VIX price.
See Chart:
Traders were not buying options because they
thought volatility would increase, they were buying options because they were
facing insolvency. If you are a fish on dry land, how much will you pay
for a glass of water?
Look, there has been so much talk about
volatility and VIX exchange traded products lately… but that is yesterday’s
news and is irrelevant. Everyone is missing the forest from the trees...
the pond from the ripples … In April, the commissioner of a major regulatory
agency visited Artemis to discuss my research on short-volatility from last
year. He asked whether I thought the VIX eco-system represented a systemic
risk. I told him, “Forget VIX, that’s over. Done. But you should be VERY worried about
how the bigger implicit short volatility trade affects liquidity in the overall
market... THAT is the systemic risk.”
…
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete;
it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
The nation is failing as a direct consequence of four catastrophic policies
1. President
Johnson's expansion of the Vietnam War
2.
President Clinton's deregulation of banking/finance in the early 1990s.
3. President
G.W. Bush's Invasion of Iraq and the launch of Endless War
4.
Presidents G.W. Bush and Obama's rescue of predatory parasitic banks in
2008-09.
The nation is
failing as a direct consequence of these four catastrophic policies, policies that undermined our economy and system of governance,
that introduced the poisons of official fake news and propaganda, that
institutionalized the suppression of dissent and
institutionalized the fraud and embezzlement of "too big to fail"
financialization.
See Chart:
* * *
Travesty of a
Mockery of a Sham Book Sale: (September only) Why
Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform is now $2.99 for the Kindle
ebook, a 25% savings, and $6.95 for the print edition, a 22% savings.
Why
Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It is now $2.99 for
the Kindle ebook, a ridiculous 70% discount, and $10 for the print edition, a
50% savings. My new mystery The
Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake is
a ridiculously affordable $1.29 (Kindle) or $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for
free in PDF format. My new book Money
and Work Unchained is now $6.95 for the Kindle ebook and $15 for the
print edition. Read the first section
for free in PDF format. If you found value in this content, please
join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of
my work via patreon.com.
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"Today in America no member of the print and
TV media or NPR dares to get within a
hundred miles of the truth. It would be a career-ending event... Without a media dedicated to truth, there can
be no control over government."
Truth Is Evaporating
Before Our Eyes - Does anyone notice?
On September
17, I posted my column,
“Evidence is no longer a Western value.”
Anyone
who asked for evidence was treated as a “Putin apologist.” This took evidence out of the
picture.
Science
gave the world the principle of evidence-based fact, which did away with the burning of witches
and political decisions based in superstitution. Truth
became a force.
But truth
can get in the way of agendas, and as elites recovered their power from the social, political, and
economic reforms of a previous era, truth was divided
into categories and cut so fine that it disappeared.
The result is
that today truth is established not by evidence but by
repetition of accusations and falsehoods.
See Picture:
This made it easy to destroy people and countries by
lies alone.
As hard as false accusations can be on individuals, they destroy entire
countries.
What I have described is a truth-free world. There
is no place for truth in the world that the West has created. The Western
hostility to truth is overwhelming.
Many in governments want truth-tellers locked up as enemies of the state,
by which they mean “enemies of the self-interests of the ruling elites.”
Today in America no member of the print and TV media
or NPR dares to get within a hundred miles of the truth. It would be a
career-ending event.
See Graph
Without a media dedicated to truth, there can
be no control over government.
Identity Politics has destroyed the very conception
of truth independent of race and gender. Science itself becomes discredited as
does civilization:
Never in history have humans been so near to losing all comprehension of
reality as in today’s world in which there is no respect for truth.
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The
company’s choice of state-funded
partners has raised a few eyebrows...
Mark Weisbrot, a co-director at the
Center for Economic and Policy Research, recently
slammed Facebook’s decision
to work with US government-funded organizations as
"Orwellian" — especially given the fact these
organizations themselves "specialize in overseas propaganda."
Here are 3 extremely worrisome Facebook
initiatives to which the public should pay close attention, and which
suggest the social media giant is increasingly becoming a censorship arm of
the US government and its allies...
* * *
1 Facebook's Partnership with US
state-funded think tanks
2 Facebook's close ties to NATO and US allies
3 Facebook has set up a "War Room"
ahead of the November midterm elections
* * *
What's
the ultimate aim here?
"Political Disruptions: Combating
Disinformation and Fake News" that governments “have to” direct “propaganda”
toward their own populations.
….
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GOP propag continue .. to make it real
they have to put at front d issue PEACE & be consistent
With
stocks at record highs and President Trump gloating at the "record
strength" of the US economy, it appears confidence is coming back as sentiment among Republicans reached an
all-time record high in the latest Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index.
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[[ If his nomination don’t succeed.. Trump will lose many, many votes. He
risk his V in Nov ]]
"If Republicans surrender on the basis of what
we know now, they will face the fury of
their own voters - and rightly so..."
[[ True: one day delay in his nomination = 30 days
back in political agenda ]]
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"The
coordinated effort to destroy my good name will not drive me out. The vile
threats of violence against my family will not drive me out. The last- minute
character assassination will not succeed."
[[ The ‘nuns’ accusations
lack solid evidence.. No sense to delay K-nomination ]]
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran
search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
[[ At the end of this Art you will see clear that the most affected by
trade war is the US ]]
Exports
to the US will slow more rapidly, though growth will likely still stay positive
in Q4 2018, and finally turn negative only in Q1 2019. It is only then that the trade outlook will be more
challenging,
Well, according to DB's Zhang Zhiwei, the
damage of the trade war has already shown up in disaggregate data. Specifically, after the US imposed a 25% tariff on $34bn of
Chinese exports on July 6, US Customs data show that the imports of this group
of goods dropped by 10% yoy in July. However, disaggregate data on this level
is only available with a lag of about two months, which is why DB expects
imports in August for this group of goods to drop further.
See Chart:
The US government announced on
June 15 that a 25% tariff would be imposed on another group of Chinese goods
worth US $16bn, which came into effect on August 23. This caused a surge
of imports for this group in July, up
to 40% yoy, which in turn helped to offset the slump of imports for the US$
34bn of goods already facing tariffs in July. Meanwhile,
the headline trade data, which is the total US imports from China, remained
strong at 8% yoy in July.
See Chart: China is up
In addition to tariff front-running, other factors that may have helped China stabilize trade
include
1-strong
external demand, as evidenced by the high PMI numbers (
Figure 2 );
2-depreciation of the RMB against the dollar; and
3-hiking
tax rebates for exporters for some goods.
The US said
it may further impose tariffs on the remaining $267bn of Chinese exports. These
include major products such as computers, cell phones, apparel and shoes
(Figure 3). If the US takes further action on this, it may trigger further
front-running in the short run for these products:
See
Chart:
In other words, with staggered
"frontrunning" of future sanctions, 2018 will
likely be a strong year for Chinese trade: as a baseline case, overall
exports growth is expected to slow, but
only gradually to 7% in Q4 2018 and 4% in Q1 2019. As a result, exports to the US will slow more rapidly, though
growth will likely still stay positive in Q4 2018, and finally turn
negative only in Q1 2019. It is only then
that the trade outlook will be more challenging, especially if the trade war
escalates further and drives out some supply chains from China.
….
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"Well, this sure is a fine way to attempt to
ease tensions with North Korea"
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
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Por supuesto: Fue lo que hizo Lenin y su NEP en RU Rev
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Binoy Kampmark Casting
Kavanaugh: The Trump Supreme Court Drama
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Max Wilbert Blue
Angels: the Naked Face of Empire
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that
leads to more business-wars from US-NATO
allies
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Tensions
Grow as China, Russia and Iran Lead the Way Towards a New Multipolar World
Order By Federico
Pieraccini,
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by
Iranian observers..
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