Sat
SEP 22 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
A strategy
consisting of just a 3.3% position in Universa with the rest invested passively
in the S&P 500, had tripled the money, generating a compound annual return
of 12.3% in the 10 years through February.
Ten years after the financial crisis, with the bull market
now the longest on record, "black swan" fund Universa Investments
chief investment officer, Mark Spitznagel,spoke
on Bloomberg TV and said that "we are going to continue to see deeper and
deeper [crashes], simply by virtue of the fact that the degree of
interventionism is larger and larger."
In other words, trading for "the end of the
world"... but not expecting it to come tomorrow. In fact, his advice to
traders is simple: "you mustn’t fight the Fed.
What you must try to do is sort of jiu-jitsu the Fed. You need to sort of use
the Fed’s force against it."
Easier said than done?
And while so far the "FINAL
CRASH" has yet to come, what has made the "fat tail" fund unique
- recall that Universa is advised by author Nassim Nicholas Taleb of
"Black Swan" fame, and best known for his prediction that six sigma
"fat tail", or black swan, events happen much more frequently than
they should statistically - is that it has not only not lost money, but
has actually outperformed the S&P in the past decade: See 3 Black swams when open this article.
“it has
not only not lost money, but has actually outperformed the S&P in the past
decade” :
According to a letter sent to investors earlier this year
and seen by the WSJ, a
strategy consisting of just a 3.3% position in Universa with the rest invested
passively in the S&P 500, had tripled the money, generating a compound
annual return of 12.3% in the 10 years through February, better than investing in just the S&P 500
itself. It also was superior to portfolios three-quarters invested in stocks
with a one-quarter weighting in more-traditional hedges such as Treasurys, gold
or a basket of hedge funds.
See Charts:
As shown in the chart above, Spitznagel's small crash bets
have paid off repeatedly, offsetting the "theta bleed" associated
with a portfolio such as his.
Which may also explain why Spitznagel is so happy: it isn’t
because he sees an imminent crash, though he doesn’t rule it out. It is because
almost no one else is preparing for one.
Another quirk: in 2017, when
volatility dropped to all time lows, buying crash insurance was seen by many as
throwing away money. But Spitznagel said he was “like a kid in a candy store”
because volatility, and hence options prices, were so subdued. At least they
were until February of this year, when the VIX underwent a record explosion,
soaring from the single digits to an all time high handing Universa's clients
another outsized return with a true market hedge.
Ultimately, the math behind Spitznagel’s investing
philosophy is a simple bet on human nature: investors
are "more confident after a long stretch of smooth sailing and hefty gains
for markets, that is when the odds of something going horribly wrong are
highest."
And with the S&P at all time highs, Spitznagel has to be
delighted: after all, both investor confidence, and the
odds of that "horribly wrong" moment are just as high.
"This
is a very good time for us," he said. NOW
ALL HE NEEDS IS A CRASH.
….
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The housing
market indicated that a crisis was coming in 2008.
Is the same thing
happening once again in 2018?
Home sellers are
cutting prices at a pace that we have not seen since the last recession.
In case you are wondering, this is definitely a major red flag for the
economy. According to CNBC,
home sellers are “slashing prices at the highest
rate in at least eight years”…
Of
course the reason why prices are being dropped is because homes are not
selling. The supply of homes available for sale is shooting up, and that is good news
for buyers but really bad news for sellers.
But is this just an
“adjustment”, or is this the beginning of another
crisis for the housing market?
See Chart:
Just like
a decade ago, millions of American families have really stretched themselves
financially to get into homes that they really can’t afford. If a new
economic downturn results in large numbers of Americans losing their jobs, we
are once again going to see mortgage defaults rise to stunning heights.
We live at a time when the middle class is
shrinking and most families are
barely making it from month to month. The
cost of living is steadily rising, but paychecks are not, and that is resulting
in a huge middle class squeeze. I really like how my good friend
MN Gordon made this point in his most
recent article:
The economy, in other words, has been rigged.
The value that workers produce flows to Washington and Wall Street, where it’s
siphoned off and misallocated to the cadre of officials, cronies, and big
bankers. What’s left is spent to merely keep the lights on, the car running,
and food upon the table.
And unfortunately, things are likely to only go downhill
from here:
The trade war is really starting to take a toll on the global economy,
and it continues to escalate. Back during the Great Depression we faced a
similar scenario, and we would be wise to learn from history. In a
recent post, Robert Wenzel shared a quote from Dr. Benjamin M. Anderson
that was pulled from his book entitled “Economics
and the Public Welfare: A Financial and Economic History of the United States,
1914-1946”…
In period from 1920 to 1933….
Protectionism ran wild all over the
world. Markets were cut off. Trade lines were narrowed. Unemployment
in the export industries all over the world grew with great rapidity, and the
prices of export commodities, notably farm commodities in the United States,
dropped with ominous rapidity….
On Sunday June 15, it was announced that he
would sign the bill. This was headline news Monday morning. The stock market broke twelve points in the New York
Time averages that day and the industrials broke nearly
twenty points. The market, not the President, was right.
Even though the
stock market has been booming, everything else
appears to indicate that the U.S. economy is slowing down.
If home prices continue to fall precipitously, that is going to put even more pressure on the system, and it won’t be too long before we reach a
breaking point.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"Busy waging trade wars with other countries and getting involved
in distant conflicts, such as in Syria, that have nothing whatsoever to do with
the United States, Washington is
largely ignoring a real problem that is threatening the country’s national security
each and every day..."
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"The general burden of the American worker is the daily task
of squaring the difference between
the booming economy reported by
the government bureaus and the dreary economy reported in their biweekly paychecks."
By all
official accounts, things have never been better. GDP, according to the Bureau of Economic
Analysis, is growing at an annual clip of 4.2
percent. The unemployment rate, as reported by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, sits at just 3.9 percent. But
that’s not all…
Pot stocks
have become the new bitcoin. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average, after a six month hiatus, is marking new all-time
record highs. And, most importantly, the Dodgers are tops in their division
going into the final week of the regular season. What’s
not to like?
See Chart:
Potting
it – marijuana stock Tilray rises to a price/sales ratio of 846 intraday. Such
moves have become a regular occurrence in bubble-land. [PT]
See Chart:
Discrepancies
Here,
standing at the heights of a quasi-centrally planned economy, we see
distortions and discrepancies. There
are pie charts and bar graphs displaying contrived and downright fabricated
economic data. The garbage outputs are very much at odds with the reality
of the situation.
See irony-graph
A
succinct summary of the situation. [PT]
For
starters, the growth is being extracted from the future via massive infusions
of corporate, consumer, and government debt. To
dismiss this, is to stretch the truth considerably. To understand that GDP
is, in effect, a measurement of the rate at which we’re all going broke, makes
the spectacle of a 4.2 percent rate of GDP growth an absolute howler.
On top of that, the 3.9 percent unemployment rate is
downright ludicrous, if one is in the mood for statistics without any common
decency. What good is a 3.9 percent unemployment rate when the labor
participation rate is at a 40 year low? If the
unemployment rate is really at a record low, why are wages
stagnating?
These
discrepancies help explain the outlandish circumstances all but the crème
de la crème of the wealth spectrum find themselves in. It is
nothing less than a charade. What to make of it?
See irony-graph
Middle class
problems emerge from all sides. [PT]
The
Burden of the American Worker
The general burden of the American worker is the daily task
of squaring the
difference between the booming economy reported by the government bureaus
and the dreary economy reported in
their biweekly paychecks.
There is sound reason to believe that this task, this burden
of the American worker, has been reduced to some sort of practical joke. An exhausting game of chase the wild goose.
How is it that the economy’s been growing for nearly a decade straight,
but workers have on average seen no meaningful
increase in their income? Have workers really been sprinting in
place this entire time? How did they end up in this ridiculous situation?
Continue reading at:
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"Yes, my comrades, I’m
afraid it’s time to face the facts, depressing as they are. The working classes are not our friends.
Just look at how they’ve been betraying us...and after all we’ve done for them all these years! "
If the Left is ever
going to come together to save the world from Donald Trump and his legions of
fascistic Putin-Nazis, we’re going to need to confront our primary enemy... the
international working classes.
See satire Graph
Here only some bolded notes, after
the quote in red above:
Now, OK, I know
you’re probably asking, “how can the international
working classes possibly be the enemy of the Left?” and “wouldn’t that render
the whole concept of the Left completely absurd and essentially meaningless?”
and other pertinent questions like that. And that’s totally fine, you’re
allowed to ask that. Questioning aspects of the official narrative the ruling
classes are forcing everyone to conform to like members of a worldwide cult
doesn’t make you a Nazi or anything. It’s perfectly OK to ask such questions,
as long as you don’t continue to ask them, over and over, and
over again, after the facts have been explained to you. Here are those facts, one more time.
The international working classes are racists. They are misogynists.
Xenophobic transphobes. They do not think the way we want them to. Some of them actually still
believe in God. They are white supremacists. Anti-Semites. Gun-toting,
Confederate-flag-flying rednecks. .. They do not respect the corporate media. They think that news sources
like the Washington Post, The New York Times, The Guardian, CNN,
MSNBC, BBC, and so on, are basically propaganda outlets for the global
corporations and oligarchs who own them..
Their minds are so
twisted by racism and xenophobia that they can’t understand how global
capitalism, the graduated phase-out of national sovereignty, the privatization
of virtually everything, the debt-enslavement of nearly everyone, and the
replacement of their so-called “cultures” with an ubiquitous, smiley-faced,
gender-neutral, non-oppressive, corporate-friendly, Disney simulation of culture are actually wonderfully progressive steps
forward on the road to a more peaceful, less offensive world.
Look, I
realize the truth is painful, but the science of statistics leaves no room for
doubt. As much as some of us may
want to deny it, the fact is, the country that elected Barack Obama (who is
Black) president, twice, has been transformed by Putin’s brainwashing agents
into a cesspool of xenophobia and racism, and it is up to us lefties to set
things right! .. Now, to do this, we need to unite the Left, and get everyone
marching in lockstep, and so on. Which means that we need to identify and weed out all the fake leftists
among us.
OK, that sounds a
little harsh, and possibly totally idiotic, but what other choice do we really
have? If we’re going to defeat these Putin-Nazis, a few eggs are
going to have to get broken. .. But, seriously … if you’ve made it this far in
my essay, and you consider yourself a leftist of some sort, you’re probably
extremely frustrated with what passes for the Left these days, and with how the
working classes are flocking to the Right, both in the United States and all
over the world. If I’ve got that
right, you might want to read this
essay by Diana Johnstone (which
we lefties are technically not allowed to read, because it’s posted in The
Unz Review, where a lot of “alt-Right” pieces are also posted … and you don’t
want to get any of that stuff on you!)
…
Continue reading at:
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" US politics is pretty much the same; two mainstream parties owned by the same
political class, engaged in a staged bidding war for votes to give the illusion
of competition."
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
This N… sound propaganda: it comes after India decided to
buy RU arms
While bad
loans in the Italian banking system have received a ton of attention from
investors, India is not far behind and India's economic recovery is built on an
even shakier foundation...
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Science of destruction is going far..
“Something that’s unclassified but not
well known, we recently in November... launched an air-to-air missile
against a maneuvering target that scored a direct hit...”
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"We know the current economic situation isnot good and many people are strapped for cash. I could
hardly become optimistic about the new iPhone sales this year."
[[ Old news: this phone importation is been cut now, as
response to US threats ]]
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"The only thing that we learn from history is that
we learn nothing from history..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
RELATED 1
RELATED 2
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Is Putin already in the moon?.. The ISR issue indicates he
is
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RT SHOWS
Christ Hedges & the journalist Hugh Hamilton decided to
talk about “Prison and Intelectual Complex, Part2”.
But when I opened the art, they demanded me to enroll in Facebook, one of the monsters of Fake News. I did
considered H1 & H2 as unfair & political dishonest maneuver. I assume their arg was that RU is using
Facebook (they made have tech to overcome fake-News from Facebook), we common
people don’t have such high tech.
So, I decided to take out this art published in On contact from my Journal
since they suppose to be part of the left & supporting Facebook is just the opposite. My Journal’ intention
is to provide different views among the left and if I support RT news is
because they create a balance or equilibrium in my info- duty. In short: I’m
not pro-RU at all. I’m Kantian and in this regard I consider “anything under
the limits of reason” .
Why Kantian?
In Kant, the essence of reason is contradiction bet two main factors that coexist as positive and
negative sides of the same coin. What is positive in one context is negative in
the next & vice verse. In his ‘dualism’
Kant try to get a balance bet objective & subjective knowledge. He state
that pure objectivism conduces to radical structuralism (RU marxism) & pure
subjectivism conduces to existencialism & phenomenology (and to Critical
Theory, at the best).
To me Kant is the clearest philosopher of radical humanism:
he proclaimed as basic law of human relations a universal rule known as “categorical imperative” to preserve PEACE, perpetual
peace, no war. He also said “individual” has the duty to preserve another ‘categorical
imperative”: the “self-value” (his freedom) in order to fight for peace at
whatever cost. This freedom cannot be sacrificed by war even if demanded for
the good of the whole society.
That is the highest contribution of Kant to the progressive or
left in human history. His other contrib was his dialectical approach on Reason.
The nature of reason is antinomic, he said, it contains at least 2 main
contradictions. But these contradiction are merely seeming, not permanent, true
or real, their positive and negative content can flip to the opposite side.
WHY hegelian Marxist?
Of course this thesis was developed by Hegelian dialectics
and later by the young Hegelian Marx when applied to economics and politics. The labor and capital are 2 sides of the same coin, they need
to keep a balance otherwise the coin is devaluated and disappear. It is
the young Hegelian Marx who said that. That is the main
reason of the neoliberal debacle today. I derived from a very famous
statement and I’m going to copied (from my library), though in Spanish and
later on I will put it in English.
“El proletariado (sinonimo de labor o
trabajador) y la riqueza (sinonimo de capital,
propiedad privada o neoliberalism, si lo aplicamos al context actual) constituyen una antinomia (o contradiccion en términos
de Kant). En este sentido forman un todo único.
Son dos formas del mundo de la propiedad
privada. El problema consiste en descubrir el lugar que cada uno de ellos ocupa
en la antinomia. No basta con decir que son las dos caras de un todo único.
La propiedad privada, como propiedad privada, como
riqueza, esta obligada a conservarse a si misma y, por tanto, a conservar a su
contrario, el proletariado. Es el lado positivo de la antinomia: la propiedad
privada satisfecha.
En cambio, el proletariado se ve obligado, como
proletariado, a laborar por su propia abolición de las condiciones que lo
convierten en proletriado, es decir, por la abolición de la propiedad privada.
Es el lado negativo de la antinomia, la propiedad privada en estado de agitación,
degradada y en proceso de disgregación.
La clase poseedora y la clase proletaria
expresan la misma alienación humna. Pero la primera se siente satisfecha con su
situación, se siente bien establecida en ella, considera este auto-alienación como
su propio poder y tiene, asi, la apariencia de una existencia humana. La
segunda, en cambio, se siente aplastada por esta auto-alienación, ve en ella su
propia impotencia y la realidad de una existencia inhumana. Es, para usar la expresión
de Hegel, “en medio de la degradación, la revuelta contra la degradación”. Una revuelta
a la ue le obliga la contradicción entre su humanidad y su situación, una negación
franca, clara y absoluta de su humanidad.
Por consiguiente, en el marco de la alienación,
los propietarios son el partido conservador y los proletarios el partido
destructor.. [ o a la inversa ].
Es cierto que en el curso de su desarrollo económico,
la propiedad privada avanza hacia su propia destrucción, pero solo a través de
una evolución independiente de si misma, inconsciente y contra su voluntad, únicamente porque produce
el proletaria como proletariado, la miseria consciente de su miseria moral y física,
la degrdacion conciente de su degradación, y por esto mismo, en lucha por
abolirse a si misma. El proletariado ejecuta la sentencia que la propiedad privada ha dictado contra si misma al crear al
proletariado, del mismo modo que ejecuta la sentencia que el proletaria ha
dictado contra si misma al crear la riqueza para los demás y la miseria para
el. Si el proletariado triunfa no quiere ello decir que se convierta en la
forma absoluta de la sociedad porque solo triunfa aboliéndose el mismo y
aboliendo su contrario. El proletariado desparece, pues, junto con el contrario
que le condiciona: la propiedad privada [sobre los medios de producción ].
Si los autores socialistas atribuyen esta mision
hitorico-universal al proletariado nos es –como pretende creerlo la escuela
critica- porque vean a los proletarios como dioses. Al contrario, en el
proletariado plenamente desarrollado ha desaparecido todo elemento humano,
incluso la apariencia de humanidad. En las condiciones de existencia del
proletariado se condensan en su forma inhumna todas la condiciones de
existencia de la sociedad actual.
….
Fuente : La Sagrada Familia. Marx-Engels. Pag 205-207
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
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Andrew Levine Israel’s
Anti-Semitism Smear Campaign
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W. T. Whitney US
Harasses Cuba Amid Mysterious Circumstances
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George Capaccio Iran:
“Snapping Back” Sanctions and the Threat of War
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Graham Peebles Priorities
of the Time: Peace
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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