Sat SEP 29 18
SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over.
Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
"Powell seems determined to continue rate
hikes on an aggressive path and possibly to accelerate the hikes. But he might be in for a severe case of
whiplash when he has to make a hard pivot to easing... But by then,
the damage will have been done..."
In his
post-announcement press conference, Jerome Powell cited a strong economy, low
unemployment, solid growth, etc. He said that “It’s a
particularly bright moment” for the economy.
On the surface
it might look everything is great, that it is a particularly bright moment for
the economy. But if you take a hard look behind the numbers, a different
picture emerges.
There’s
one problem with the happy talk about 3–4% growth. We’ve seen it all before.
- In 2009, almost every economic forecaster and commentator was talking about “green shoots.”
- In 2010, then-Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner forecast the “recovery summer.”
- In 2017, the global monetary elites were praising the arrival (at last) of “synchronized global growth.”
None of this wishful thinking panned out.
In the third quarter of 2016 growth was
2.8%, but it fell quickly to 1.2% by the first quarter of 2017. In the third
quarter of 2017 growth was 3.2% but then returned to 2.0% by the first quarter
of 2018, about the average for the past nine years.
This
pattern of temporarily strong growth followed by weak growth has been
characteristic of the entire recovery that began in June 2009 and entered its
10th year a few months ago. In fact, we’ve seen even more extreme reversals in
the recent past:
In the third quarter of 2013, growth was 4.5%. But by the first quarter
of 2014, just six months later, growth was actually negative,
-2.1%, comparable to some of the worst quarters in recent recessions.
Growth was 5.0% in the third quarter of 2014, but then fell off a cliff
and was barely positive, 0.2%, in the first quarter of 2015.
You get the point. Strong quarters have been followed by much weaker
quarters within six months on six separate occasions in the past nine years.
There’s no reason to believe this trend will end now.
The
longer-term view of the entire recovery is more revealing. The recovery is
currently 109 months old, the second-longest since the end of the Second World
War. The average recovery since 1980 (a period of longer-than-average
expansions) is 83 months.
So this expansion has been extraordinarily long — far longer than average
— indicating that a recession should be expected sooner
rather than later.
In
short, growth under
Trump looks a lot like growth under Obama, with no reason to expect that to
change anytime soon. In fact, the head winds caused by
the strong dollar, the trade wars and out-of-control deficit spending may slow
the economy and bring future growth down below the average of the Obama years.
The single most
important factor in my analysis is that when the Fed
realizes its mistake of tightening into economic weakness, it will have to turn
on a dime and shift to an easing policy.
Jay Powell
seems determined to continue rate hikes on an aggressive path and possibly to
accelerate the hikes. But he might be in for a
severe case of whiplash when he has to make a hard pivot to easing. But by then, the damage will have been done.
….
….
SOURCE:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-29/one-step-closer-recession-and-jay-powells-looming-whiplash
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete;
it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"Clearly, the American idiots have no idea whatsoever what a moral issue is"
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Moral or immoral.. we are in
election time. So far: Abstention is ethical Opt
"After
Nov. 6, I will take a hard look at
running for president..."
[[ If she run as independent
.. we vote her .. Bye bye duopoly system
But
this art said she would consider run for Dems party nomination
in
2020 once the midterms are over. Trump consider her a conservat
compared
to other in the list of Dems. The pools said she is above the
Rep
candidate Beth Lindstrom. In the
controversy on Kavanaugh she
said
“time up” "It’s time for women to go to Washington and fix our
broken government and that includes a woman at the
top." The Fact
is that women broke the Law with an invented story
paid by Dems in
nasty media. So, EW runs on a wrong donkey in mules competition. ]]
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"The
Kavanaugh lynching is a dress rehearsal for the impeachment of Donald Trump. And
the best way to fight impeachment is the way the judge fought Thursday. In
defending yourself, go after your
malevolent accusers as well."
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It
"must be limited in scope and completed in less than one week"
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"...there are discussions we need to have, butinstead we're opting for the magical-thinking and
oh-so-easy 'fix' of everything will be fine if we just spend another trillion or two..."
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran
search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
“This is one of the most counterproductive measures imaginable for regional
global peace and security...”
[[ If you win PEACE you win WAR.. If US wants war, it will be destroyed ]]
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"Someday, when the US begins to lose its grip on the world economy all
of those places being sanctioned will line up to get their revenge and it won’t be pretty..."
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China Economy seen by an American
YOUR
SEMI-ANNUAL GOLDEN WEEK REMINDER..."THEY ARE REALLY PUSHING IT"
To be shut down
for an entire week in early October, the banking system in China builds up a
liquidity stockpile in September.
The
banking system felt them as much as the real economy, but adjusted well enough.
When money was plentiful, no big deal. But as things have really tightened the
last four years, the Golden Weeks have become eventful. China’s weeklong New Year every January has tended to be the greater
of the two, but October’s celebration of the Communist takeover has contributed
its share of interesting behaviors.
These
haven’t been limited to mainland China. Tightening and volatility ahead of the October festival has been
witnessed in Hong Kong, too. It’s one of the most obvious changes to the
interconnection between CNY and eurodollars.
September
2018 has taken it one step further still.
See Chart:
The overnight HIBOR rate, the cost of
borrowing Hong Kong dollars unsecured by collateral, spiked higher nearly two
weeks ago – right on schedule. On September 13, it was almost 2% and remained
at that elevated level through yesterday. Today, the overnight rate fixed at
nearly double that, 3.85%.
See Chart:
But a
surge all at once isn’t what anyone in Hong Kong wants to see. Volatility is
always and everywhere the real killer for anything in the banking system. It
doesn’t discriminate. Risk perceptions were already challenged by HKD’s sharp
decline earlier this year.
We are left to suspect China’s latest approaching
Golden Week. Banks in the hoarding stage can only become more desperate if
hoarding is hard to accomplish.
See Chart:
These
holidays have always been disruptive, but the last few years they are
really pushing it.
See Chart:
They are
….
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Leaked
document provides a rare look into corrupt European-Gulf arms deals.
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If Turkey and Russia’s vision of their place in the
world is defined to a large extent by geography, Iran’s topology dictates a more inward-looking view despite accusations
that it is seeking to establish itself as the Middle East’s hegemon...
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"...live-fire drills to tests pilots' assault, penetration
and precision-strike
capabilities at
sea..."
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"Without
any trust in the US there will be no confidence in our national security and
under such circumstances there is no
way we will unilaterally disarm ourselves first..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
[[ From huge stupid.. huge stupidities.
While most honored State rules of the world want to avoid WW3.. this
idiot goes against the current.. Does he has family? Why this idiocy ]]
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'Fell in Love'? Is love an empty blah blah among
politicians? Is it a way of dating other
ruler?
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Trump Says World Respects US Again The world always respect our Nation n laugh some
rules
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RT SHOWS
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Keiser
Report
Helicopters
in demand as Empire crumbles (E1286)
Max and Stacy discuss the helicopter money being promised to rescue
stock markets for the next crash
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
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RT Más de 170
sismos azotan Indonesia tras el terremoto y el tsunami que mataron a más de 400
personas
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism
& internal conflicts that favor WW3
Washington’s Sanctions Machine By Philip Giraldi Continue
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Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov
Speech at UN
Video and Transcript
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Laid Bare: The Façade Of U.S. Institutions By William A. Cohn Continue
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Socialists and Libertarians Need an Alliance
Against the Establishment By Stephen M. Walt
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Security, Safety, Security! – Dictatorship by
Democracy
By Peter Koenig Continue
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that
leads to more business-wars from US-NATO
allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by
Iranian observers..
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