Sun SEP 16 18 SIT EC y POL part 2
ND
denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in
Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
"Over the past decade, in the wake
of the 2008-09 debt crisis, the impossible has happened. The sickness of too much debt has been
seemingly cured with massive dosages of even more debt. .."
Misadventures
and Mishaps
Over
the past decade, in the wake of the 2008-09 debt crisis, the impossible has
happened. The sickness of
too much debt has been seemingly cured with massive dosages of even more
debt. This, no doubt, is evidence that there are wonders and
miracles above and beyond 24-hour home deliveries of Taco Bell via Door Dash.
See Chart:
The fake money system – a system centered
on debt based legal tender and centrally fabricated interest rates – produces
booms and busts of greater extremes with each progression of the business
cycle. This
century alone we’ve experienced two iterations of these boom and bust
scenarios. First the dotcom bubble and bust. Then the housing boom and crash.
Make no mistake, these booms and busts
were anything but garden variety gyrations of the business cycle. In
fact, the Federal Reserve’s finger prints are all over them. The booms originated from Fed
monetary policy misadventures. The busts were triggered by Fed monetary
policy mishaps.
Anatomy of a
Mishap
Presently,
we are closing in on a decade’s long economic boom and bull market in
stocks. This boom, like the boom of the mid-2000s, advanced during an
extended period of monetary policy misadventures. This
was the ZIRP and QE misadventure from 2009 through 2015, which distorted
financial markets and disfigured the economy.
The last several years of this boom and
bull market, however, have been a monetary policy transition period. First the Fed tapered back
QE. Then the Fed began ever so slightly reducing its balance sheet and
raising the federal funds rate.
See Chart:
The crossover into the monetary policy
mishap stage is never apparent until well after the fact. In truth, the
crossover may have already happened… and we just don’t know it. The
mishap will come as a surprise.
Then Fed
Chair Powell, just as Bernanke did at the onset of the subprime mortgage
meltdown, will step forward with calming confidence and declare the sickness to
be contained. But the reassurance will be short lived. Because the contagion will have already spread to the center
of the financial system.
Then, to Wall Street’s astonishment, a major financial institution
will collapse – like
Lehman Brothers a decade ago – and the flow of credit will be reduced to that
of cold molasses. After that, things will really get out of hand…
Honest Work for
Dishonest Pay
One trio
of bad ideas, which was burped into the atmosphere last weekend by former
IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard, is for
the Fed to combat the next recession by buying stocks,
financing the deficit, and directly purchasing goods. Surely, Blanchard’s a clever
fellow. He’s even a Professor of Economics emeritus at MIT.
Yet, predictably, Blanchard didn’t mention that the Fed would need
to create money from thin air so that it could buy stocks, loan it to the
government, and go on its massive spending spree. Perhaps these massive
helicopter money drops would prevent asset prices from deflating. But
they would also destroy any remaining semblance of market-derived pricing and
perpetuate an upside-down economy.
Blanchard also didn’t mention that these
actions would transfer the ownership of publicly traded companies, and future
tax payer labors, to the Fed. Conceivably,
there are infinitely many places where this could all lead – though we don’t
suspect any of them would be very appealing.
One direction Blanchard’s plan would take
us is to a place where taxpayers and the company’s they work for would be
reduced to milk cows not for the federal government… but for private
bankers. This, in turn, would complete the central banker’s long desired
wealth extraction scheme.
Still,
that doesn’t mean things would be all bad. Here at the Economic Prism we
are eternal optimists. We see the glass half full. We make lemonade
with our lemons. When we spill salt, we throw a pinch over our left
shoulder and right into the devil’s eyes.
Moreover, as a milk cow for private bankers we’re
confident we would still find plenty of satisfaction – and have a little fun
too – while providing an honest day’s work for
a dishonest day’s pay.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-16/americas-fake-money-system-honest-work-dishonest-pay
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[[ A
vision very optimistic .. according to their own business- interest. Good luck!
]]
With several markets reaching "extreme levels", JPMorgan
lists five issues on which capital markets will reverse or extend this fall.
These
include:
- US-China detente (low odds, high market impact);
- Firmer China activity data due to stimulus (high odds, moderate impact);
- Policy orthodoxy in large EMs (moderate odds and impact);
- An even tighter oil market (moderate odds, high impact);
- Weaker US earnings growth/narrower profit margins (low odds this year, high impact).
For more
details on each of these key market-determining catalysts, go to the Source below. Here we the charts related to the 5
points, plus his conclussion:
1-
Chart 2
Trump approval rating on stock market performance:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/trump%20approval%20JPM.jpg?itok=fRZChShY
2-
Second, is the true reason behind China's
recent weakness, a secular slowdown in both the economy and credit: To JPM, the second key factor to
watch for is an upturn in Chinese credit and investment data due to recent
monetary and fiscal stimulus. This is because China's investment cycle remains
a key medium-term driver of numerous markets (mainly Base Metals and Metals
& Mining, sometimes broader EM Equity and Bond indices) through commodity
demand. However, as shown below, so far there has
been no joy: August readings on China credit (total social finance) and fixed
investment continue to show deceleration.
See
Chart:
3-
At the country level, turning points can
come when monetary policy is tightened and macro imbalances fall, thus reversing the vicious circle
of currency weakness and equity contagion. Turkey's surprise +625bp rate hike
this week to 24% was a necessary condition towards lira stability since it put
the country’s real policy rates in the +5-10% zone usually required to reduce
severe imbalances, of which Turkey is an outlier.
See Chart:
4-
Then there's oil, because with so much EM
stress, the other consequences of President Trump's foreign policy – a Brent
oil price that has returned to a four-year high of $80/bbl – is sometimes
overlooked.
As JPM points out,
given the President’s initiatives, EM currencies and oil are the only two
markets where implied volatility has trended higher this year.
See
Chart:
5-
Finally, for US Equities, which remain one
of only three risky markets to outperform cash this year - along with US HY Credit and Oil
as shown in the chart below...
See
Chart:
... JPMorgan warns that
an inflection point could come when earnings growth slows materially and profit
margins compress. That
said, the bank is doubtful either dynamic materializes in 2018 given how the
impact of the US’s twin fiscal eases is spread over several quarters (tax cuts
dominate this year and fiscal spending next year), and how gradually the Fed
will move to restrictive monetary policy late next year. In fact, JPM's strategists think Q3 earnings growth
could come in at 24% year-on-year, so barely decelerating from Q2’s 25% pace.
And even though US wage growth has accelerated to a cycle high, a
near-concurrent rise in productivity has preserved margins.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/JPM%20NFIB%20profits_0.jpg?itok=wzY41y5t
Thus,
the trackers for turns in US markets this fall are the more global ones
discussed earlier than the organic ones revealed through earnings, which
continue to support a strong picture for US stocks.
…
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In 19 of the past 20 years, spending on CapEx has represented the
largest single use of cash by corporations. But not in 2018, in which buybacks
have soared by 48% to a record $384 billion during 1H 2018, while spending on
capex rose to $341 billion.
See
Chart:
See more
interesting charts in the source below
…
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo
democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge
cambio
Done
in P.1
US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global
depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
The Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok
has become a crucial part of
strategic integration between China, Russia and other countries in northeast
Asia, a graduation assimilation set to transform the current world system...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL
n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal
expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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All
the rest is done in Part 1
PRESS TV
Resume
of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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Trump
assaulted: Kavanaugh
sexual misconduct publicized
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