Sund SEP 30 18 SIT EC y POL
ND
denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in
Econ
ZERO
HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
"...higher mortgage rates were
always bound to start slowing the
housing market. It was more a matter of what level of rates would
be necessary to take the first bites out of housing. We think the answer is playing out
right in front of us..."
As we can see, pending home
sales are closely inversely related to the level of mortgage rates, and rates
lead pending home sales by about two quarters. The breakout in mortgage rates
we’ve seen over the last few months portend more weakness in pending sales.
See Chart:
The next
chart compares mortgage applications (blue line, left axis) to the 30 year
fixed mortgage rate (red line, right axis, inverted) and shows that these two
series are also closely inversely related. Higher rates are slowing demand for financing and
demand for overall housing. Not exactly a
heroic observation, but an important one nonetheless.
See
Chart:
The home
builders seem to have caught on, as we would expect. In the next chart we show
the 1 year change in private residential construction including
improvements (blue line, left axis) compared to the 30 year fixed
mortgage rate (red line, right axis, inverted, leading by 2 quarters). As rates
have moved higher this year, new home construction growth has slowed to just
2.5% YoY. If
rates are any indication, new home construction growth may turn negative in the
months just ahead.
See Chart:
To be
fair, everything housing related isn’t that bad. Inventory levels, even though
they have moved up a lot over the last several years, are still at reasonable
levels and well shy of peak bubble levels of 2005-2007. Even so inventory levels may no longer be
supportive of housing action.
See Chart:
In sum, the effects of higher long-term
interest rates are starting to be squarely felt in the housing space.
See
Chart:
All this suggests that the housing sector,
which has been a bright spot of this recovery over the last five or six years,
may not be the same source of wealth accumulation and growth over the next few
years, or as long as
higher mortgage rates continue to take the juice out of this sector.
…
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-29/higher-mortgage-rates-are-starting-bite-housing-market
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"Fragile markets now sit on the edge of chaos. This is the
magic zone, theorized by complexity scientists, where rare events become
typical."
See Chart:
When measured against potential growth, even
against its peak earnings in 10 years, the S&P has
never before been this expensive before.
It is approx. 60% above its historical average fair value.
How Expensive Is The Bond Market In Europe
The
biggest bond bubble out there is in Europe, where real and nominal rates are
still negative in spite of ebullient global equities. Bond
yields are historically aligned with growth and inflation rates, according to
basic valuation models. Why not, then, draw their historical simple
relationship to them, in ratio format. This is what the ‘Real Rate to Growth
Ratio’ does (read here
a full definition), no more no less. And this is
the self-explanatory Chart that results:
See
Chart:
Fragile markets now sit on the edge of
chaos. This is the magic zone, theorized by complexity scientists, where rare
events become typical.
…
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"At the moment, the markets seem poised for something big. You can sense
it. The Fed continues to tighten the federal funds rate...Emotions
continue to strengthen their grip on the markets...Markets are ripe. What better vehicle than oil to provide an
epic parabolic price spike and crash?"
Sanctions and Bottlenecks
Take
oil, for instance. The price of WTI crude oil is back above $70 a barrel.
Brent crude trades at over $80 a barrel. Aside from a brief price spike
at the beginning of summer, oil hasn’t been this high
since its price collapsed in late 2014. What gives?
See
Chart:
To
begin with, oil markets are notoriously cyclical. Production and
consumption rates often crisscross in short succession. Oil prices swing
wildly to both the upside and the downside as supplies shift from gluts to
shortages and back again. But that’s not all…
In
addition to regular supply and demand dynamics, oil markets are also subject to
extreme government intervention. Specifically, the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – a 14 nation cartel, which often works in
concert with Russia – colludes to fix the price of oil to its liking.
Oil Mania Redux
Petroleum
geologist and oil analyst Art
Berman believes rising oil prices will be short-lived. According
to Berman, a metric he calls comparative petroleum inventories, which compares
inventory data to the five year average for any given week, crude supplies will
soon move back into surplus. After that, oil prices will fall.
See Chart:
Who is right? Who is wrong? Is oil going to $100 or $50 a
barrel? Surely, time will tell. Here at the Economic Prism we will
refrain from making an oil price forecast. However, we will offer one
constructive anecdote.
If you
recall, back in June 2008, Brent crude spiked up to nearly $150 a
barrel. At the time, many intelligent people claimed we had hit peak
production, and that prices would continue to go up forever. Speculators
chased prices higher reinforcing the popular peak production theory.
Then, over the next six months or so, oil prices collapsed along with stocks
and real estate.
See Graphs:
At
the moment, the markets seem poised for something big. You can sense it. The Fed continues to tighten the federal funds
rate. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note is holding above 3
percent. Emotions continue to strengthen their grip on the markets.
Certainly,
the time seems right. Markets are ripe.
What better vehicle than oil to provide AN EPIC PARABOLIC PRICE SPIKE AND
CRASH?
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo
democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge
cambio
"If you’re going to use sexual
assault to slow somebody down,
it had better be the truth"
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"Democrats, who are only thinking Obstruct and Delay, are
starting to put out the word that the 'time' and 'scope' of FBI looking into
Judge Kavanaugh and witnesses is not enough. Hello! For them, it will never be enough..."
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global
depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"We can do that because the United States is the largest
producer of oil and gas" - Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke
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During the never-before--reported encounter, Iranian
sailors warned the Americans in a radio transmission to "keep well clear" of the Guard patrol boats and to "refrain from the threat or use of force in any
manner."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL
n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal
expansion via wars & danger of WW3
War mongering
stupidity:
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RELATED:
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat
Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
VIENTO SUR:
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FEM Paula Ezkerra “Hablar de esclavit en trab sexual es tema moral”
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Lo que menos queremos es una
guerra en el Sur. Eso solo beneficia al US i/o RU.
Recuerden lo que paso en Cuba: los RU los abandonaron y a Peru enviaron sukois
chatarra: cuando rechazamos la agresión UK a ARG por las Malvinas.. esos sukoi
fueron derribados como palomas. Y miren lo que esta pasando con el US: donde
van llevan genocidios, destrucción y migrantes a su suerte.. si son hombres los
alquilan como mercenarios. QUE HACER? unir el atlántico
con el pacifico con puertos que unan a los 3 paises del Pacifico (Peru-Chile y
Brasil).. Crear la región Bi-continental con los 3 paises daría salida al mar
para Bolivia. Peru intento hacerlo y lo haría de si Chile no lo hace. Quien lo haga traerá desarrollo
Econ a la región bi-continental. El proyecto de crear esta región bi-continental
nació hace 3 décadas, entonces se pensó en ujna carretera que uniria 3 puertos,
pero el felon del Imperio USA en Peru, Mr Alan Garcia, se opuso a la Union de
estos 3 paises pues se hable de moneda propia que no era el dólar. Esta vez no
seria carretera sino via férrea lo que uniría Econmic a los 3 paises (quizá 4)
. Al parecer China podria financiar este proyecto si los 3 paises lo piden.
Paraguay podría incluso hacer parte de este Proyecto.
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Especial Palawan: Tragedias en la selva
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics
& Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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Malaysia’s
Dr Mahathir at the UNGA: Want to End Terrorism? Recognise Palestine and Stop
Israeli Atrocities By Yushaimi Yahaya
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PRESS TV
Resume
of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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