Tue SEP 18 18 SIT
EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social +
Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
China didn't shit the bed... so everything is awesome
again (and Trump's just negotiating so don't sweat those other few hundred
billion dollar tariffs)...
It looks like The National Team wanted to make sure that
CHINEXT did not extend its losses beyond 2014 and saved SHCOMP after the lunch
break..
See Chart:
Their economy is going up fast
US equity indices surged on the day...
But as Futures show best, while The Dow and S&P
managed to erase yesterday's losses, Nasdaq did not... and late-day weakness
spoiled the party altogether...
See Chart:
FANG Stocks gained on the day but were unable to erase
yesterday's losses.
See Chart:
Do investors really believe China's $60 billion tariff response is
all there is? Take a look at bond yields today!
10Y Yields pushing to May highs above 3.00% (3.05% highs
today, +7bps from lows) - we wonder whether this was China rattling their sabre
a little at Trump's tariff tantrum...
See Chart:
The Dollar trod water after flip-flopping the last few
days...
The offshore yuan strengthened from the post-tariffs low
last night...
See Chart:
Commodity land is getting interesting in other areas...
Lumber futures have tumbled to
18-mo lows, despite all the rhetoric about tariffs sending
prices soaring...
See Chart
But Soybean
prices fell to a decade-low on Tuesday after data pointed to a
quickly advancing US harvest and as the Trump administration escalated trade
tensions with the China, the largest destination for American exports of the
legume. [[ How US farmers will react? ]]
Finally, we note that the S&P 500 Price-to-Sales
remains near record highs...
And as the stock market pushes higher, so professionals
continue to bid for crash risk protection... (SKEW inverted)
See Chart:
Is everything awesome?
…
…
----
----
The debate over tariffs has
mostly emphasized their impact on economic growth and jobs, which overlooks specific stories of suffering
caused by President Donald Trump's trade war.
See Nice Picture
Then see the list of 202 companies who are hurt by Trump’ trade
war. Source: Republicans Against Tariffs
[ [ Does Trump believe that going to WW3 will also
enjoy impunity? Ah ah.
State-Nations will uprise + armed people brigades will attack US Comp
& US embassies worldwide.]]
…
----
----
"...neither
a specific trigger event nor an impending recession are required for such an
inflection point to be reached. Very high valuations and weak internals make the market vulnerable even if the
economic expansion continues..."
A Lengthy Non-Confirmation
As we have frequently pointed out in recent months, since
beginning to rise from the lows of the sharp but brief downturn after the late
January blow-off high, the US stock market is bereft of
uniformity. Instead, an uncommonly
lengthy non-confirmation between the strongest indexes and the broad market has
been established.
The chart below illustrates the situation – it compares the
performance of the DJIA (still no new high since January, although it has come
close), vs. the NDX (one of the best-performing indexes, along with the Russell
2000/ RUT) and vs. the NYA (our proxy for the broad market):
See Charts:
DJIA vs. NDX vs. NYA – this rather glaring and very lengthy
divergence is a symptom of a narrowing market. The vast
bulk of the uptrend in benchmarks such as the S&P 500 was due to the surge
in the “FAANG” stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) – but even this
group of stocks is no longer in uniform tracking mode, as FB has fallen out of
bed and NFLX and even GOOGL have begun to look wobbly lately. File under interesting trivia: AMZN and AAPL, the two
strongest stocks of the group, reached their highest closing levels to date on
September 4, the day after Labor Day (the year-to-date closing
high in the NDX was recorded on August 29). In 1929,
Labor Day fell on September 2 and the DJIA topped out on September 3.
But these indexes do not exist
in isolation. A further advance in the near term seems
unlikely, in light of a recent sharp rise in bullish sentiment (consider e.g. Mark
Hulbert’s Nasdaq sentiment gauge in this context). Most sentiment and positioning indicators recently returned
to very high levels relative to their history, but failed to eclipse
their January highs.
The next chart compares two major developed market indexes – the S&P 500 Index and the Euro-Stoxx 50 Index. The
divergence between these markets has grown enormously. You may be
surprised to learn that European stocks actually topped out in early 2015 (a
few country indexes surpassed their 2015 peaks, but the same cannot be said for
Europe-wide indexes).
See Charts:
Poor Market Internals and
Anecdotes of Ingrained Exuberance
A noteworthy recent
development was a large cluster of Hindenburg omens that has been recorded in
Nasdaq and NYA. In order to provide some context, below are
two charts showing the history of such signal clusters. While Hindenburg omens
are often meaningless, every major decline in the past was
preceded by one, or rather several of them (clustering of signals is typically
seen ahead of major turning points).
See Charts:
Two
different views of the “Hindenburg” statistics. The chart at the top adds Nasdaq and NYSE Hindenburg signals that have
occurred within a span of six consecutive trading days. The recent peak of 8
occurrences is among the four highest on record. The second chart shows the
frequency of signals over periods of one month, six months and one year. The
one-year total has recently climbed to a tie with the previous record high
established in 2007-2008. Interestingly, the mid 2015/ early 2016 corrections
were also preceded by a spike in Hindenburg readings.
We found the second of the two charts on Twitter and noticed that the signal was almost universally dismissed as meaningless.
Some of the commentators sounded quite hostile, as if the mere mention of the
ominous omen constituted a personal affront. This tidbit of anecdotal
sentiment actually adds a little weight to the signal’s message – a few years
ago a similar chart would probably have met with a more sympathetic response.
See Chart:
See more chart & arguments that arrive to the following
conclusion
Conclusion
The market seems to be close to a resolution with respect to its
recent uneven trading range. With many indexes just below their all time highs,
this is either the point at which the rebound since February fails, or the
point at which the advance accelerates and the divergences discussed above are
finally overcome. In view of the recent sentiment backdrop, the extent of the
divergences shown above and the increasingly hostile monetary backdrop, the
former seems more likely to us than the latter, but it wouldn’t be the first
time the market proved surprisingly resilient.
Short term interest rates are still rising and unemployment claims
recently made new lows, both of which are usually short term positive coincident
indicators for the stock market. But both trends appear quite
stretched by now, which suggests that an inflection
point is fast approaching. Note that neither a specific trigger event
nor an impending recession are required for such an inflection point to be
reached. Very high valuations and weak internals make
the market vulnerable even if the economic expansion continues (economic data are
increasingly mixed as well, but not yet to an extent that would justify
recession concerns).
…
…
----
----
Here the official story: control the crisis & make it
profitable. Don’t change Neo-liberal System
"The market is
simply discounting way too much future growth and is not discounting a recession..."
Crescat
Capital's Q2 letter to investors focuses on three key macro ideas that
are complementary plays on the unwinding of currency and financial asset
bubbles at a likely peak of a global capital cycle, the most leveraged in
history:
- Shorting US stocks at proven, historic-high valuations relative to underlying fundamentals with abundant catalysts for a near-term bear market leading to a US recession;
- Shorting the overvalued and weakening Chinese yuan and China contagion plays to express the unwinding of a credit bubble that is unprecedented in scale and already bursting; and
- Buying precious metals commodities at record deep value compared to the global fiat monetary base and related miners at record cheapness to the underlying fundamentals with an increasing number of important new signals showing rising US and global inflationary pressures and a hamstrung Federal Reserve that is unable to stop them.
These themes represent what we believe are the biggest macro
imbalances in the world today.
See Chart:
The Fed is hamstrung because,
while it has been raising rates, it continues to run a hot monetary policy in
the US, one that is still way too loose to fight rising domestic inflationary
pressures according to our model as well as the Fed’s
own Taylor Rule. Rising M2 money velocity is one sign of rising inflationary
pressure today that many people have overlooked. For much of the last decade,
money velocity has been declining, but it has recently broken out of a
long-term downtrend as we show in the chart below.
... Per Crescat’s model, the neutral Fed funds rate that would be necessary to control rising
inflationary pressures today is 5.5%. The
current Fed funds rate, however, is only 2%. Our research is based on the
history of a breadth of inflation and labor market indicators and the Fed Funds
rate going back to 1971.
See Chart:
When the Fed keeps interest rates too low for too long, it creates
financial asset bubbles that it has difficulty extricating itself from. If the Fed
were to raise interest rates by 3.5% to get to the neutral rate to prevent
rising inflation, it would be catastrophic for today’s financial asset bubbles.
Doing so would massively invert the yield curve, crash the stock and credit
markets, and create a recession. Such is the tradeoff
between inflation and financial asset bubble deflation that we face today.
It is clear that aggregate US financial asset valuations
are at excessive, all-time highs, by looking at the ratio of financial assets
to income as shown below. Today’s US equity and credit markets valuations
combined are what we call MOAB, the mother of all bubbles:
See Chart:
China Credit Currency and Credit Bust
While the mother of all
financial asset bubbles is represented by US stocks and credit today, China
represents the mother of all credit bubbles based on its massively overvalued
currency and banking system.
As shown in the charts below, China’s massive and unsustainable banking asset
growth represents a substantially bigger banking imbalance than that of the US
prior to the Global Financial Crisis and a bigger imbalance than the EU banking
bubble prior to the European Sovereign Debt Crisis.
See Charts:
China: The biggest credit bubble yet, now bursting
See Chart:
Precious Metals
See Chart:
Silver is historically cheap
to gold. Miners are historically cheap to their own
fundamentals, and even cheaper when one considers depressed gold and silver
prices today. Precious metals are the ultimate inflation hedge and haven asset
of our two MOABs, China credit bubble and the US financial asset bubble burst.
Too many investors fear another deflationary bust if they fear one at all.
Asset bubbles will certainly deflate. But real economy deflation is the last
war. The Fed has already
proven in the last cycle that money printing conclusively can beat deflation.
Therefore, if we could own
just one asset class to hedge against ultimately rising inflation as record
financial asset bubbles are bursting, it’s precious metals. Next to
the US dollar, gold remains the most ubiquitous central bank reserve asset in the
world and global central banks have been net acquirers of it since it bottomed
in 2015.
See Chart:
Central Banks have shifted from new sellers to new buyers of gold.
Why fight Central Nanks?
We want to be on the same side of central banks.
See Chart:
The recent weakness in gold combined with record speculative short
interest presents a great deep-value buy today for gold.
…
…
----
---
WTI prices rebounded back
above $69 today after Saudi headlines and inched higher still into the API
print. However, prices slipped lower after crude inventories saw a surprise build of 1.25mm barrels (vs
expectations of a 2.5mm draw).
----
----
The fake business of selling and re-buying US bonds has NOT future
Was China selling today
also?
[[ Their Econ
have another foundat & dynamic.. don’t need to do so..but, why no? ]]
----
----
US DOMESTIC
POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds &
corruption. Urge cambio
...Or
is it a dead feminist, homosexual,
transgendered
walking zombie?
----
----
Another official story: this time
based on wishful thinking. The fact is that if Referendums on Impech are called
town by town & signed for it, the story will change. Dems are afraid of Ref,
they have also big ‘rabo de paja’ easy to be burned. It is with their complic
that Trump is alive
..
"The
only flipping that’s been happening is Russiagaters flipping the fuck out as
their hopes are dashed to pieces time
and time and time again."
----
----
Get this crap and laugh on the way the neo-nazis invade independ
media like zerohedge
"I have nothing to
lose. It’s impossible to fire federal employees."
See Video:
…
SOURCE:
----
----
"It
makes me wonder, what other rules
are out there, and how have these rules been applied?"
----
----
US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Exercises took place within
China's self-declared maritime claim known as the Nine-Dash Line,
----
----
The
government of Bashar Assad “whose military shot down the Russian
plane,” is “fully responsible” - Israel Defense Forces
statement
[[ What about
“sorrow” .. the US-UK has bombed you.. Trump is “fully responsible” ]]
----
----
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus
on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
RT SHOWS
----
Keiser Report
Manafort
drained from bipartisan swamp Max and
Stacy discuss the opioid billionaire patenting the ‘cure’ for addiction to his
products. They also discuss the UK taxman allowing the rich to escape
punishment for their financial crimes, while the ECB does essentially the same
by buying up bonds. In 2nd
half Max continues his interview with Ken Silverstein about the neocons
behind the Cold War 2.0. They also discuss Manafort case and how he is really
no different to the rest of lobbying industry in the great swamp that is W DC.
----
----
----
----
----
NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
Chile -El periodo y las tareas del Frente Amplio Felipe Oscar Lagos
Mund -¿Qué tan universales son los derechos humanos? Sergio Rodríguez
Mund -¿Qué tan universales son los derechos humanos? Sergio Rodríguez
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
Keiser Report EE.UU. y el "síndrome de la
locura por Trump"
----
----
COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
John Kendall Hawkins
Seymour
Hersh: a Life of Adversarial Democracy at Work
----
John Feffer The
GOP Wants Trumpism…Without Trump
----
----
----
----
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars
from US-NATO allies
Coca-Cola
and Nestlé to Acquire Private Ownership of the Largest Reserve of Water in
South America. Report By Amanda Froelich The aquifer
is located beneath the surface of Brazil, Argent, Paraguay and Uruguay and is
the second largest-known aquifer system in the world.
----
The
2017 Raqqa Exodus: The US Coalition’s “Secret Deal” to Allow ISIS-Daesh
Terrorists to Escape… By Prof Michel
Chossudovsky,
----
----
----
DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis inside US
----
----
----
PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
===
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario