miércoles, 29 de agosto de 2018

Wed AUG 29 18 SIT EC y POL



Wed  AUG 29  18  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Fun-Durr Mentals?
How Argentina feels tonight... 
Since China intervened mid-month (ahead of the US-China trade talks), the Yuan strengthened and US equities soared (until decoupling the last few days)...
See Chart:


And bond yields have fallen (QE trade!?)
See Chart:


But Emerging Market currencies have started to collapse again...
SEE Chart:


The Nasdaq is on course for its best August since the year 2000...Things did not end well last time (-74% in under 3 years)
See Chart:


30Y Yields remain above 3.00% but appear to have peaked in this micro-ramp...
SEE chart:


The Dollar ended the day lower, once again though shifting-trend in the middle of the day...
See Chart:


But the Argentine Peso was utterly destroyed... (biggest drop since 2015's devaluation) ARS closed on its low tick, a fraction below the 34.0/USD level.
See Chart:


So much for the Fed balance sheet delta impacting stocks!!??
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Los paises emergentes llevan los peores costos de la recession actual: case Brazil

The reinvigorated emerging market crisis has created a 'perfect storm' in softs but with speculative positioning in sugar and coffee at or near all-time record net short, the worst could be over...
See Chart:


However, with speculative positioning in sugar and coffee at or near all-time record net short, the worst could be over. (the softs are a close proxy for emerging markets, but with elevated covering risks). As Bloomberg Intelligence details below:

Further declines in the softs are highly dependent on a weaker Brazilian real and sugar. The worst is likely over for sugar, down over 30% in 2018. Recovery is highly dependent on similar weakness in the real, down about 20% vs. the U.S. dollar this year. Short sugar has been the proper position, but with prices near a 10-year low at key 10-cents-a-pound support and net short positions leading all major commodities, covering risks are quite elevated.
See Chart:


Pressuring prices are the real's 20% decline vs. the dollar in 2018 to Aug. 28 and the record increase in Brazil coffee production. CONAB estimates production climbing to 20% above the five-year average, the most in the database since 2001.
So is the worst really over for softs and/or EM FX? The extreme correlation of the two will need to shatter if so.
See Chart:
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"Positioning is all on one side of the boat and speculators are woefully unprepared for a major risk-off event, suggesting complacency may be reaching epidemic levels as equities break out to new highs."
See Chart:


The chart speaks for itself, but as Bloomberg's Michael Regan explains, "the obvious takeaway is that positioning is all on one side of the boat and speculators are woefully unprepared for a major risk-off event, suggesting complacency may be reaching epidemic levels as equities break out to new highs."
As we noted previously, speculators are record net short Treasuries...
See Chart:


And VIX speculators just can't help themselves, despite losing an arm and/or leg in February...
See Chart:
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Description: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/teaser_small/public/2018-08/2018-08-29_11-56-43.jpg?h=158c0fad&itok=940lioti
"As we approach the 10 year anniversary of Lehman, many have forgotten in the decade that has passed that you don’t know where the true ticking time bomb is when there is an over-indebted problem..."
See Video:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist  duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s  full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo


“Mr. Lovinger unwittingly shined a spotlight on the deep state’s secret weapon – Stefan Halper – and threatened to expose the truth about the Trump-Russia collusion narrative than being plotted: that it was all a set-up.”
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"Russian cannons have 50 percent to 100 percent greater range than current U.S. cannons" - Army Times, RAND report
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"We recognize that there is a possibility of getting there by Friday, but it is only a possibility, because it will hinge on whether or not there is ultimately a good deal for Canada. No NAFTA deal is better than a bad NAFTA deal." - Justin Trudeau
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo


In July, profits from China's large industrial enterprises rose 16.2% Y/Y according to official data. But comparing this year’s absolute yuan levels with last year’s, profits dropped by 15.92%.
See Chart:
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US  inside  GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


RELATED 1
RELATED 2:
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RT SHOWS

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am NEW FOCUS: alternat to neo-fascist regimes, breaks to HR, Peace & support to US-terrorism 


                -Sociedad masoquista  Atawallpa Oviedo Freire
                -La fiebre del cobalto en el Congo  Jérôme Duval 
                El Salvador Recuperar concesiones y democratiz modelo mediático  Arpas  
                Argentina ¿Hay riesgo de default?   Ceso 
                VEN Hiperinflación: arma imperial (III)  Pasqualina Curcio 
                BRA  Los verdaderos delitos de Lula   Rafael Hidalgo F
                USA  Dos litros de agua por cada litro de petróleo  Gerardo Honty 
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis he creates


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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