Sat 18 AUG 18
18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
As we
continue our trek through the summer doldrums of August - which have been
anything but boring - here is what Bank of America believes are the key charts
to watch "in a frantic August."
Here is what Bank of America believes are the key
charts to watch "in a frantic August."
Chart 1 shows the path of currency devaluations (vs. USD) in
previous EM events. So far, the Turkish Lira devaluation looks nothing out of
the ordinary. But history suggests that weakness can
last for many more days. The probability of orthodox policy adjustment in
Turkey looks low at present, with a hard landing scenario looking more likely.
See Chart:
Chart 2 shows USD fixed-rate debt
outstanding in BofA's EM external debt index. Note that it shows both corporate
and sovereign debt. While Turkey's quantum of USD borrowing is clear, it is
still eclipsed by China, and the Asia Pac region.
Chart 2
Nonetheless, chart 3 highlights
Turkey's specific vulnerabilities: Turkey's external borrowing as a % of GDP is
much more noteworthy. In particular, private sector external debt/GDP has grown at a very fast rate as a
result of recent privatization tenders and large infrastructure projects which
were run as public-private partnerships (PPP).
See Chart 3
Chart 4 shows how the pace of USD-denominated borrowing by
Emerging Market non-banks jumped from early 2010. The Fed's QE era provided ample financing for companies that were not
natural funders. Lately, the pace of
USD-denominated borrowing has declined for non-financials in (developing)
Europe (-6% YoY), yet growth rates remain high for non-financials in
(developing) Africa (+19.9% YoY) and (developing) Latam (+9.4% YoY)
See Chart 4
Chart 5 shows the growth rates of
non-bank USD-denominated foreign debt, by borrowing type. Pre-Lehman,
amid a vibrant banking sector, foreign currency credit was most readily
available to corporates via loans. The growth rates of USD-denominated loans
reached 40%. Things changed, understandably, post the
financial crisis as banks deleveraged and moved back to their domestic markets.
Since 2016 however, the growth rate of USD-denominated loans
to non-bank Emerging Market corporates has remained very close to zero. Yet, the growth rate of USD-denominated debt securities outstanding has jumped to almost 20%.
Again, while and era of global QE
has revitalized the bond market, it has also attracted debut issuers for
funding.
See Chart 5:
But as 2018 has progressed, this has become a more frequent
occurrence. As we noted
earlier, the next chart shows that the cumulative number of central bank
rate hikes over the last 6m is now not far from the peak seen just prior to the
Lehman event. In other words, the world has seen
a significant liquidity withdrawal since May this year. This suggests less
"crowding" by investors into risky assets lies ahead.
See Chart:
Meanwhile, the USD has continued to strengthen in August,
and the ongoing Dollar strength remains a negative for European markets. As chart 7 shows, retail inflows into Euro credit funds have
fizzled-out this year, and this has coincided with the period of Dollar
strength from March '18 onwards. Coupled with very attractive front-end rates
in the US, European retail
money is simply leaking to the US market at present.
See Chart 7
….
See more Charts at:
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El
Capital se hunde en su propio ‘lodo’.. no crece.. solo su deuda crece. El labor aún cree que hay vida y desarrollo
futuro.. Once this mirage is over.. they will add stones to this burial. That day is close.
Read this art:
Hedge funds
have never been more net short gold...but DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey
Gundlach has a warning for bond bears.
Speculators boosted
10-year futures net shorts by a further $8.3m/DV01, leaving positioning at
short close to 700k TY contracts; elsewhere, net short in belly of the
curve was cut by $3m/DV01. Further out, net ultra-long futures short was extended by $5.5m/DV01 to record level.
In euro-dollars, speculators cut shorts by $4.5m/DV01 while
asset managers marginally added to net short
See Chart:
Speculators appears to be pricing in
over 50bps of yield rise over current 10Y rates - as Gundlach notes, if the
market gets a safe-haven jolt (cough EM crisis cough) or growth scare (cough
China cough) then this massive
short position might squeeze yields dramatically lower...
See Chart:
And while speculators have never
been more averse to bond safe-havens, as dollar longs have soared, they have
also abandoned precious metals.
In an almost unprecedented
move, net speculative
positioning in gold and silver futures has collapsed in recent weeks.
See Chart:
As Peter Boockvar notes, "for those who care about gold such as
myself, in the just released CFTC data for the week ended Tuesday, speculators
went net short for the first time since December 2001 when gold was priced at
$275 an ounce. It’s tough to find a more contrarian indicator."
In fact, as of the latest week
- both Gold and Silver futures
are now net short...
See Chart:
Hedge
funds have never been more net short gold...
See Chart:
Aggregate Gold speculators have not been net short since
August 2002 and has not been this net short since Dec
2001. What happened then?
See Chart:
However, don't write off gold yet.
As
Bloomberg notes, bullion
has lost out in a paradigm shift where the metal’s no longer viewed as the
traditional refuge when investors are in a risk-off mood, but that won’t last, according
to Rick Rule, chief executive officer of Sprott
U.S. Holdings.
Investors are favoring U.S.
Treasuries, and that’s seen the dollar get stronger, Rule said in an
interview from Vancouver Wednesday. But the
greenback’s strength is relative, not absolute, and the overwhelming
faith that the global saver has placed in the U.S. currency is “probably partly misplaced,” he said.
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SOURCE:
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
HAVE
YOU COMMITTED YOUR THREE FELONIES TODAY? Russia.. Russia.. Russia!
It is hard to escape the notion that we are
approaching the edge of some profound historical moment that will
have far-reaching, literally life and death consequences, both domestically and
internationally...
It’s no coincidence,
Comrades, that disparity is the work of
denizens (Hillary included) of a law enforcement and intelligence apparatus is
focused like a laser on two closely linked objectives: ONE, get Donald Trump. TWO, at all costs,
make sure that he cannot in any way move forward on his stated objective to
improve ties with Russia. Those objectives are
the two sides of the coin called Russiagate. All
else, including the disparity of treatment given those close to Trump versus
his opponents, is a function of Russiagate. Three
other things also follow:
- Trump’s powerlessness, even within his own administration.
- Trump’s personnel
- Flipping the “Russians did it” narrative
The Russia!
Russia! Russia! hysteria is sometimes called a new McCarthyism, but that’s unfair – to Tailgunner Joe. In his
day, whatever his excesses, there really were Stalinist agents at the State Department. This new panic is nothing
we’ve seen before, except maybe during the Salem witch frenzy of the 1960s.
Which
brings us to Maria Butina, a Russian grad student and Second Amendment advocate
jailed (and refused bail) on thin allegations of unregistered lobbying.
Which brings us to the biggest
threat to what’s left of our liberties as Americans. (No, not the
yanking of the security clearance of former CIA Director John Brennan.) ..Using Russian meddling as a pretext,
companies that do billions of dollars of business with the federal government
are only too happy to police the web of “suspected
Russian-linked accounts.” And since, as Hillary
says, Putin is the leader of the worldwide “authoritarian,
white-supremacist, and xenophobic movement” who is “emboldening right-wing
nationalists, separatists, racists, and even neo-Nazis,” anything and anybody
that fails Virginia
Senator Mark Warner’s or Mark
Zuckerberg’s sniff test is now fair game. We are told that to
sow discord and chaos Russian troll
farms and social media ads target “divisive” issues related to race, Black
Lives Matter, and Ferguson, absent which we’d all be holding hands singing
Kumbaya.
Continue reading at:
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#BlackEmploymentMatters?
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“These emails were uncovered
from the emails that Hillary Clinton tried to delete or otherwise
hide from the American people... showing whythe Clinton email investigation needs to be re-opened by the Justice
Department.”
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
"40 innocent children killed on a bus in Yemen" -Jim Carrey
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EM equities
are 25% lower than their October 2008 highs, or a 108 percentage point
underperformance versus US equities.
See Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-18/emerging-markets-have-gone-nowhere-over-past-decade
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US inside GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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Politics,
American Style: Big GOP Donor Goes Big, Loses Millions, Doubles Down, Loses
Again (and Again) [[ We don’t call it “politics” .. we called DEMOCRACY .. American style.. This is why I won’t vote
in the coming elections.. I will favor ABSTENTION..
until new election rules are set ]]
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Intentional
misperception now. It was OK in 1940’: FDR
shake hands with Stalin against Hitler
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Trump’ regime is full of
inconsistencies. It damage his credibility & affects his pol-legitimacy
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Iran
to Unveil New Fighter Jet Next Week, Retaining Missile Development as its Top
Priority - Report
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RT SHOWS
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Keiser
Report Episode
1268 Max and Stacy discuss
censorship in the digital public square where the progressives are not really
welcome. In the 2nd half of
the schow, Max interviews Max Blumenthal, about the role of a NATO and Gulf
monarchy
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am NEW FOCUS: alternat to neo-fascist regimes, breaks to
HR, Peace & support to US-terrorism
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[
Constit es proyectar futuro: no requiere aldabas, si puert pa mejor]
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Keiser Report Censura hasta en la sopa
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
If
You Put a Bush Crony in Charge of Iran Policy, Doesn’t It Signal a War-Like
Intent? By Juan Cole,
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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