lunes, 13 de agosto de 2018

Mon AUG 13 18 SIT EC y POL



Mon AUG 13 18  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


Overheard everywhere today...
Emerging Market FX was where the headlines were today...
See Chart & Graph


But stocks in China, Europe, and US all saw miraculous ramps  as EM tumbled...
See Chart:


We wonder just how much CBRT blew to hold that line today
See Chart:


Turkey CDS soared to its highest since Oct 2008...
See Chart:


Argentina's Peso was pummeled, with a modest bounce after BCRA hiked rates 500bps to 45%!!
See Chart:


Brazilian Real plunged, signaling EM panic..
See Chart:


Colombian Peso was pounded... But ECHAVARRIA SAYS COP AT 3,000/USD IS OPTIMAL LEVEL
SEE chart:


And while LatAm EM was weak, the Asian Dollar Index tumbled to 17-month lows..
See CHART:


Here start the truth on US:EM FX caught down to EM Debt as EM Stocks are trying to ignore it...
See Chart:


For the first time in over a week, there was no short squeeze at the open
See Chart:


Odd day for US VIX - opened at 50DMA, spiked to 100DMA, fell back to 200DMA...
See Chart:


Tesla's farce continues with blog posts from Musk, denials and rumors about Saudi stakes... TSLA bonds were not buying it (or was buying that the company will be considerably more leveraged)...
See Chart:


FANG Stocks dumped at the open, then jumped and dumped...
See Chart:


10Y Yields remain around BoJ rumor levels...
See Chart:


The Dollar Index spiked to its highest since June 2017 (up 3 days in a row)...


Dollar strength crushed commodities...
See Chart:


And gold (in dollars) was unable to benefit from any safe-haven bid...dropping back below $1200...
See Chart:


WTI tumbled to a $65 handle and 7-week lows... (OPEC lower demand forecast and Genscape signaled Cushing stocks building) - before ramping back higher...
See Chart:


And while cryptos were whacked again today, Bitcoin is at 7-month highs in Turkey...
See Chart:
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The CBO unexpectedly trimmed its 2018 real GDP forecast to 3.1% citing concerns of rising trade war. It also predicted fewer rate hikes and now expects that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates fewer times.

Four months after the CBO surprised US economy watchers by releasing an especially strong outlook for 2018 US GDP, which it said would hit 3.3%, on Monday afternoon in its latest projections, the CBO unexpectedly trimmed its 2018 real GDP forecast to 3.1% citing concerns over rising trade war coupled with higher inflation. The Congressional Budget Office kept its 2019 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 2.4%, and also trimmed its 2020 outlook to 1.7% from 1.8% in April.
See Graph:


Economic Forecast at glance:
See Charts:
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"EM FX never lies and a plunge in Brazilian real toward 4 versus US dollaris likely to cause deleveraging and contagion across credit portfolios."
See Chart:

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[[ Posible efecto en paises emergentes: el no pago de la deuda al US por Ados regionales ]]
While the market is (finally) paying attention to the accelerating Turkish collapse and specifically the risk of contagion to Europe, Asia, and ultimately, US capital markets, the truth is that this crisis has been a long time in the making. In fact, the first break in the "strong Emerging Market" narrative emerged in late April when as a result of rising US interest rates the dollar surge began in earnest (facilitated by China's first easing announcement on April 17), which in turn sent the both EM currencies, and EM debt reeling...
See Chart:

.. to be followed shortly by the plunge in the biggest EM currency of all: the Chinese Yuan.
And as we highlighted in early May, BofA's Chief Investment Officer Michael Hartnett observed that higher US rates finally caused a higher US dollar (courtesy of the PBOC), at which point "EM started to crack."   

[[ Es evidente que la globaliz neoliber trajo mas perjuicios que benefic a paises emergentes ]]

[[ Podria negarse que ahora estamos transfiriendo a paises Emerg los costos de la crisis Econ? . NO way. Significa esto que apenas se desate el nudo que nos amarra al US .. (sea por Acuerdo Regi o por el WW3) los paises emergentes negociarían cancelar la deuda externa , la llamada “sovereing debt”. Mientras tanto.. solo queda negociar la paridad con el USD como lo hizo China y paises asiát in 1990.]
RELATED: Globalization and growth in emerging  markets and the New Economy. Joseph E. Stiglitz
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist  duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s  full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo


"If President Trump is to be taken at his word, that he welcomes dialogue 'without pre-conditions' with leaders of Russia, North Korea, Iran, and elsewhere,he would be wise to reconsider those in his employ who are undermining him every step of the way."
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo


Russia appears to have sold only about 45 percent of its Treasury holdings—substantial, but far less than the 84 percent the media is reporting.
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"Beside sanctions, they are talking aboutwar and negotiations..."
Ayatollah Khamenei
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"This is a deception campaign against a loyal American who had no role in any crimes or coup in Montenegro"
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US  inside  GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


RELATED 1:
RELATED 2:
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RT SHOWS

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am NEW FOCUS: alternat to neo-fascist regimes, breaks to HR, Peace & support to US-terrorism 


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                -Histórica condena a Monsanto Debe pagar 300 millones de dólares
                - Hacia el colapso aguas de desierto de Atacama  Orlando Milesi
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FEM       La rebelión de las criadas  Micaela Fernández
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USA       Economia: Las guerras entrópicas  Nomi Prins
                Supremacismo blanco y violencia consentida   Gonzalo Baptista
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ECON    El desempleo mundial: autista de la realidad social  Edo Camin               
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ALC        -Maduro, Duque y el Plan Maestro  Carlos Fazio
                Cuba -Una Constitución conservadora  Guillermo Almeyra
                Cuba -Somos baratas  Ailynn Torres Santana
                Cuba -Iglesias y matrimonio gay en Cuba  Douglas Calvo Gaínza
                -Perú   El pueblo madura   Gustavo Espinoza
                ARG: -Política a contramano choca con la realidad  Julio Gambina
                BRA -Retratos de un país destrozado  Eric Nepomuceno
                BRA -Diez puntos sobre la elección en Brasil  Juan Manuel Karg
                MX -Foro en Chiapas por libre determin de los pueblos  Xicoténcatl
                COL -Tres genocidios en busca de responsables  MH RD
                Chile CUT y trabajadores: No a consignas y arengas sin fuerza social
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UE          -Salvini: así ha resucit el fantas del fascismo en EU Alejandro Tena
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                Perú El Perú en crisis   Julián Lacacta
                Ven: Plan de Recuper Económ del Presid Maduro (V) J Martorano
                Col Por un programa máximo para diálogo nacional y global  F D
                Brasil, entre Lula y Bolsonaro   Emir Sader
                Ven  El pueblo es el escudo de la Patria   Adán Chávez
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Puede crear insomnio en los adultos
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3


War or Peace?   By Finian Cunningham    Continue
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The Law As Weapon   By Paul Craig Roberts    Continue
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The Age of Cretinism    By Pratap Bhanu Mehta    Continue
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis he creates


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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