SEP 8 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
FANG Stocks tumbled today, erasing any gains on the week...
Insurers bounced today as Irma
was downgraded to a mere Cat-4 and a slight trajectory shift...Today was the
best day for S&P Insurers Index since Feb 2016
The Dollar Index suffered its
worst weekly drop since July 2016...
After spiking to 18 month highs overnight... and the best
week in over a decade
…
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"... these guys are either complete idiots... or they simply don’t care...
both of which seem par for the course at Equifax."
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In a new downgrade of subprime lenders this morning, Morgan Stanley
sought to answer the question of why subprime credit card losses are suddenly soaring "if employment
is so good."
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"If people just watched the Weather
Channel, they’d sell everything. The round-the-clock coverage is looking for
ways to sound as sensational as possible. We’re trying to look at it from a
more cold, detached, calculative perspective.”
As we showed on Wednesday, the Swiss Re Cat Bond Total
Return Index has climbed more than 100 percent in the past decade, outperforming the S&P500 and generating
the same return as the Barclays High Yield index but with a higher Sharpe
ratio.
So, thanks to its
Ponzi-like returns, the market has drawn in a record amount of cash in the
first half of this year, according to insurance broker Aon Plc. Issuance was
$11.3 billion. The problem is that with Harvey and Irma, this record
outperformance is about to hit a brick wall, leading
to historic losses for most cat bonds investors.
Like all other cat bond investors, the Stone Ridge fund made
lucrative gains in recent years, rising 6.4% last year, 7.9% in 2015 and 11% in
2014,. But this year, even ahead of Irma’s unprecedented damage, the fund has
sunk 7.9% as of Thursday. It will suffer much more before all is said and done,
especially if the recent repricing of Citrus Re's cat bonds due 2020 from par
to 50 overnight is indicative of what is coming.
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So far
in 2017 there has been $1.96 trillion of central bank purchases of financial
assets in 2017 alone, as central bank balance sheets have grown by
$11.26 trillion since Lehman to $15.6 trillion.
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While on the surface, today's consumer credit report was uneventful,
one quite notable number stood out in the report: a
huge historical revision in November/December 2015 data, which saw some $102 billion in consumer
credit wiped out from the historical record...
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"The strategy of selling volatility has been so profitable that
promoters tout it to investors as a source of 'steady, low-risk income'... Nothing could be further from
the truth..."
Physicists say a “subcritical” system that’s waiting to “go
critical” is in a “phase transition.” A
system that is subcritical actually appears stable, but it is capable of wild
instability based on a small change in initial conditions.
The critical state is when the
process spins out of control, like a nuclear reactor melting down or a nuclear
bomb exploding. The phase transition is just the passage from
one state to another, as a system goes from subcritical to critical.
The signs are everywhere that the stock market is in a subcritical state with the potential to go
critical and meltdown at any moment. The signs as elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios,
complacency, and seasonality — crashes have a habit of happening around this
time of year.
See chart: the trap of complacency at: https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TasteComplacency.png
Here are the key volatility
drivers we have considered:
The North Korean nuclear crisis
is simply not going away. In fact, it seems to be getting worse. It appears North Korea has
successfully tested a hydrogen bomb last weekend. This is a major development.
Another ticking time bomb for a
volatility spike is Washington, DC dysfunction, and the potential double train
wreck coming on Sept. 29. That’s the day the U.S. Treasury is estimated to run out of cash. It’s
also the last day of the U.S. fiscal year; (technically the last day is
Sept. 30, but that’s a Saturday this year so Sept. 29 is the last business day).
Even if the budget CR and debt
ceiling get fixed under Trump’s new deal with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi,
that simply postpones the day of reckoning until December 15. That’s only three months away and will be
here before you know it. Markets tend to discount the future so a train wreck
on December 15 will start to show up in market prices today.
Other sources of volatility
include a planned “Day of Rage” on Nov. 4 when alt-left and antifa activists
plan major demonstrations in U.S. cities from coast-to-coast. Antifa are not neo-fascists, they
are antifascists;
hence the name “antifa.” Based on past antifa actions in UC Berkeley and
Middlebury College violence cannot be ruled out. This
could be unsettling to markets and be another source of volatility.
Finally, another monster
hurricane could be bearing down on U.S. shores, just after
Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston and other parts of Texas and Louisiana.
Other wild cards include domestic
terror and cyber attacks.
Finally, we are entering an
historically volatile time of year. Many of the greatest stock
market crashes of all time have occurred in September or October including the
Black Thursday (Oct. 24, 1929) and Black Tuesday (Oct. 29, 1929) crashes that
started the Great Depression, and the Black Monday (Oct. 19, 1987) crash, in
which the stock market fell 22.61% in a single day. From today’s levels, a
22.61% drop would mean a loss of 4,900 Dow points in a single day.
Don’t rule it out.
None of these scenarios are
far-fetched or even unlikely.
In short, the catalysts for a
volatility spike are all in place. We could even get a record super-spike in
volatility if several of these catalysts converge.
It
looks like a volatile and bumpy fall ahead.
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"...but the regulation is not against the virtual currency itself, nor
does it prohibit the one-on-one off-exchange of the virtual currency."
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"Sometimes the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away...."
HERE the reading for
this weekend
Politics/Fed/Economy
- The Donald’s Seinfeld Tax Plan by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning
- It’s Time To Get Rid Of The Debt Ceiling by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
- Trump’s Working Class Sellout by Edward Harrison via Credit Writedowns
- Congress May Tax Retirement Savings by Allan Golombek via RCM
- Tax Reform Should Not Add To The Debt by Committee For A Responsible Budget
- Trump Pursues Plan To End Debt Ceiling by Damian Paletta via Washington Post
- 155-Member GOP Group Opposes Debt Ceiling Deal by Jonathan Swan via Axios
- The Underreported Story Of Middle-Class Revival by Robert Samuelson via RCM
- Hurricane Harvey Rebuild Will Divert Jobs by Allan Golombek via RCM
- 15-Events That Could Trigger Next Recession by John Mauldin via Forbes
- Trump Really Hasn’t Done Anything To Create Factory Jobs by Steven Greenhouse via NYT
- A Tax-Cut The U.S. Can’t Live Without by Richard Rahn via Washington Times
- Populism Is Fading by A. Gary Shilling via Bloomberg
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Markets
- Yield Spreads Fall To 9-Year Lows by James Picerno via Capital Spectator
- Shiller: Bitcoin Is The Best Example Of A Bubble by Akin Oyedele via BI
- Blankfein: Markets Have Been Going Up For Too Long by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Your Robo-Advisor Is More Active Than You Think by John Coumarianos via WSJ
- So, This Is What A Bubble Feels Like by Kadhim Shubber via FT
- 5 Biotechs On Sale That Offer Less Risk by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
- What Is GARP? by Simon Constable via US News
- Is It Time To Say “No” To The U.S. Market? by Proinsias O’Mahony via The Irish Times
- Bond Market Rally Is No “Knee-Jerk” Reaction by Scott Dorf via Bloomberg
- Is Dr. Copper Signaling Inflation Or Higher Stock Prices by Sol Palha via HuffPo
- I’m Not Afraid Of A Bear Market, Just Don’t Want To Be There For It by Doug Kass via RCM
- Treasury Yield To 10-Month Lows by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch
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Research /
Interesting Reads
- Company Buy Backs & CEO Option Cashouts by Owen Davis via Dealbreaker
- Trouble Ahead! Hedge Funds vs. Robo’s by Jonas Elmerraji via Daily Reckoning
- Global Elites Plan For Cryptocurrencies by James Rickards via Daily Reckoning
- Is The High Cost Of Housing Crushing Wages? by Charles Hugh Smith via Of Two Minds
- Does Government Spending Create Growth? by Frank Shostak via Mises Institute
- 10-Things To Teach Your Kids Before They Leave by Trae Bodge via MarketWatch
- Normalization Delusion by Adair Turner via Project Syndicate
- The Incredible Shrinking Corporate Tax Bill by Justin Fox via Bloomberg
- Why Central Banks Are Shifting Goal Posts by Daniel Gross via Project Syndicate
- Cryptocurrencies: The Beginning Of The End by Brett Arends via MarketWatch
- Living In Houses They Can’t Afford by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Investors Are Missing Their Chance To Sell by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
- Time For Hot Latin Stocks To Cool Off? by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
- The Great Equity-For-Debt Swap by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report
….
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POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y
corrupto. Urge cambiarlo
One of the hallmarks of a successful society is the widespread belief that education is a key to success... The US is losing faith.
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"Whenever Congress does something unanimously (or nearly so) you can rest assured it’s in their
interests, not ours. The USA Patriot Act comes to mind... Another is the Safely Ensuring Lives Future Deployment
and Research in Vehicle Evolution Act –
aka the SELF
DRIVE Act – which was rubber stamped through Congress the other day."
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
Global depression is
on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
“If they pursue us with the dollar, we’ll use the Russian ruble, the yuan, yen, the
Indian rupee, the euro...”
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis:
Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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Texas
Prisoners Are Facing Horrid Conditions After Hurricane Harvey & Retaliation
for Reporting Them
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol
crisis leads to more business-wars:
profiteers US-NATO under screen
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Overwhelming
Evidence that 9/11, Used to Justify Washington Military Agenda Was a Deception.
9/11 Consensus Panel By Consensus911.org,
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COUNTER PUNCH
Charles Pierson The
Atomic Bomb and the First Korean War
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Robert Fisk The
Syrian War is Ending and Assad is the Victor
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Linda Pentz Gunter Banking
on Uranium Makes the World Less Safe
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Michael J. Sainato Democrats
Against Sanders
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of
US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view
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Soros and Hydrocarbons: What's Really Behind
the Rohingya Crisis in Myanmar
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201709051057098493-myanmar-rohingya-energy-china-soros/
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US NO SOLO FINANCIA EL TERRORISMO: LO
PROTEJE
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight
to break with collapsing Empire: leftist
view on alternatives
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Venezuela en el ojo de la tormenta imperial Diego Olivera
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RT
Tras huracanes, llamaradas solares y
terremotos, ¿cuál es la "amenaza triple" de este fin de semana?
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PRESS TV
Global situation
described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences
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