SEP 21 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Since The Fed unveiled its cunning plan to unwind the balance sheet
ever so gradually and in an ever so well-telegraphed manner, the US Treasury yield curve has
collapsed.
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"...This puts
the U.S. stock market smack-dab at the
heart of bubble territory."
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"... to ignore their own
role in creating debt misery for millions, the BoE can only deal with its own
cognitive dissonance by blaming someone else. When this
debt bubble blows, I suspect citizens? rage will be directed where it belongs."
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After an initial slide on Kim's "deranged dotard" reaction
to President Trump, both USDJPY and US equity futures are falling further (and gold topped $1300) after
Yonhap reports, North Korea’s Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho says the “highest level of hard-line”
countermeasure could refer to hydrogen-bomb detonation in the Pacific.
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"In bubble regimes, the final stage is always characterized by the 'rule of total morons'... That’s just how it is."
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The hype surrounding the credit-fueled resurgence in base metals in the
first half of 2017 has crashed and burned on the altar of reality in China's
slowdown with industrial metals from copper to iron ore and zinc all plunging
in the last two weeks. Odd that we don't hear much from mainstream business media discussing the
implications for a global coordinated economic growth narrative...
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Every important economic indicator shows that the
U.S. economy is slowing right now. When you add in QT, we may very well be
in a recession very soon.
…
There are only three members of the Board of Governors who
matter: Janet Yellen, Stan Fischer and Lael Brainard. There is only one
Regional Reserve Bank President who matters: Bill Dudley of New York. Yellen,
Fischer, Brainard and Dudley are the “Big Four.”
They are the only
ones worth listening to. They call the shots. The don’t like dots. Everything else is noise.
Here’s the model the Big Four actually use:
1. Raise rates
0.25% every March, June, September and December until rates reach 3.0% in late
2019.
2. Take a
“pause” on rate hikes if one of three pause factors apply: disorderly asset
price declines, jobs growth below 75,000 per month, or persistent disinflation.
3. Put balance
sheet normalization on auto-pilot and let it run “on background.” Don’t use it
as a policy tool.
Simple.
What does this model tell us about a rate hike in December?
Disinflation has been strong and persistent. The Fed’s main
metric for this (core PCE deflator year-over-year) has dropped from 1.9% in
January to 1.4% in July. The August reading comes out on September 29. This
time series is moving strongly in the wrong direction from the Fed’s
perspective. This is what caused the September “pause” (which we predicted for
readers last March).
After seven months of
decline, one month of increase, if it comes, will not be enough to get the Fed to end the
pause. It would take at least two months of increases to change
the Fed’s mind.
How do I know this? For
one thing, the Fed explains this all the time. It’s just that the media won’t
listen; they’re too busy chasing dots.
It’s true that Stan
Fischer is leaving the board soon, but the White House has been in no hurry to
fill vacancies. The Big Four will still be The Big
Three (Yellen, Dudley and Brainard) when the December meeting rolls around and
the analysis will be the same.
Eventually the
markets will figure this out. Right now, markets are giving a 70% chance of
a rate hike in December based on CME Fed Funds futures. That rate will drop to
below 20% by Dec. 13 when the FOMC meets again with a press conference.
(There’s another meeting on Nov. 1, but no one expects any policy
changes then).
Now, with respect to quantitative tightening (QT), the same
way they tapered QE, they’re going to “taper” QT. This time however, they’re
going to taper upward. Meaning they’re going to go from $10 billion a month not
being rolled over to $20 billion, $30 billion, etc.
Eventually, the amount of securities they don’t roll over
will go up until the balance sheet controlled by the Fed comes down to the
targeted figure. The projection is that it could
take five years to achieve. The problem is we might not make it that far before
the entire system collapses.
We’re in a new reality. But the Fed doesn’t realize
it.
Here’s what the Fed wants you to believe…
The Fed wants you to think that QT will not
have any impact. Fed leadership speaks in code and has a word for this
which you’ll hear called “background.”
The Fed wants this to run on background.
Think of running on background like someone using a computer to access
email while downloading something on background.
This is complete nonsense
The decision by the Fed to not
purchase new bonds will be just as detrimental to the growth of the economy as
raising interest rates.
The Fed’s QT policy that aims to tighten monetary
conditions, reduce the money supply and increase interest rates will cause the
economy to hit a wall, if it hasn’t already.
The economy is slowing. Even
without any action, retail sales, real incomes, auto sales and even labor force
participation are all declining. Every important economic indicator shows that
the U.S. economy is slowing right now. When you add in QT, we may very well
be in a recession very soon.
…
Continue reading this
art at: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/jim-rickards-warns-qt1-will-lead-qe4
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POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y
corrupto. Urge cambiarlo
"The worst mistake in U.S. history was
the conversion after World War II of
the U.S. government from a constitutional, limited-government republic to a
national-security state. Nothing has done more to warp and distort the conscience, principles,
and values of the American people, including
those who serve in the U.S. military."
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"The
role of media as officialdom’s trusted gatekeepers had been declining in
influence for years,
but the 2016 election served as the real wakeup call for a discredited
establishment. Control of mass consciousness had
been lost."
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is
on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
The E.O. directly targets North Korea's shipping
and trade networks and issues a 180-day ban on vessels and aircraft that have
visited North Korea from visiting the United States. This ban also targets
vessels that have engaged in a ship-to-ship transfer with a vessel that has
visited North Korea within 180 days.
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"A planned intercept was not achieved..."
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Is it
right or moral to support a secession movement that, in the short- and
medium- terms is almost guaranteed to adopt policies that are counter to the
cause of freedom and free markets?
... the answer is the same whether we're talking about
secession in Scotland, in California, or in Catalonia: the answer is YES.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis:
Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol
crisis leads to more business-wars:
profiteers US-NATO under screen
The
Illegal Occupation of Palestine: UN Must Take a Leaf From the Global Grassroots
BDS Movement By Rima Najjar,
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US
political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3
The US Has New Red Line in Syria — And It’s
F*cking Ridiculous By Darius
Shahtahmasebi
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Trump and Neta Made A Complete Fool of
Themselves in Front of World Leaders By David Macilwain
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Trump Pushes US Closer to War By Jeffrey D. Sachs
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COUNTER PUNCH
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John Wight Trump
at the UN: Nuremberg Redux
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Binoy Kampmark The
Dangerous Noose: Trump, Rogue Regimes and Annihilation
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of
US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view
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RT SHOWS
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Keiser Report
Episode
1126 On capitulation on bad bets against China. + interv 2 with Jim
Rickards
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight
to break with collapsing Empire: leftist
view on alternatives
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Se abre paso la verdad sobre la
caída de la URSS Arthur González
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Guatemala: Manifestaciones de protesta
ciudadana
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Sanciones:
Kim Jong: Trump lo "pagará
caro"
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Keiser
Report Las malas apuestas
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PRESS TV
Global situation
described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences
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Debate: US Mideast plans Failed US Mideast plans
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