viernes, 22 de septiembre de 2017

SEP 21 17 SIT EC y POL



SEP 21 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ

ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics



Since The Fed unveiled its cunning plan to unwind the balance sheet ever so gradually and in an ever so well-telegraphed manner, the US Treasury yield curve has collapsed.
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"...This puts the U.S. stock market smack-dab at the heart of bubble territory."
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"... to ignore their own role in creating debt misery for millions, the BoE can only deal with its own cognitive dissonance by blaming someone else. When this debt bubble blows, I suspect citizens? rage will be directed where it belongs."
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After an initial slide on Kim's "deranged dotard" reaction to President Trump, both USDJPY and US equity futures are falling further (and gold topped $1300) after Yonhap reports, North Korea’s Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho says the “highest level of hard-line” countermeasure could refer to hydrogen-bomb detonation in the Pacific.
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"In bubble regimes, the final stage is always characterized by the 'rule of total morons'... That’s just how it is."
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The hype surrounding the credit-fueled resurgence in base metals in the first half of 2017 has crashed and burned on the altar of reality in China's slowdown with industrial metals from copper to iron ore and zinc all plunging in the last two weeks. Odd that we don't hear much from mainstream business media discussing the implications for a global coordinated economic growth narrative...
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Every important economic indicator shows that the U.S. economy is slowing right now. When you add in QT, we may very well be in a recession very soon.
There are only three members of the Board of Governors who matter: Janet Yellen, Stan Fischer and Lael Brainard. There is only one Regional Reserve Bank President who matters: Bill Dudley of New York. Yellen, Fischer, Brainard and Dudley are the “Big Four.”
They are the only ones worth listening to. They call the shots. The don’t like dots. Everything else is noise.

Here’s the model the Big Four actually use:
1. Raise rates 0.25% every March, June, September and December until rates reach 3.0% in late 2019.
2. Take a “pause” on rate hikes if one of three pause factors apply: disorderly asset price declines, jobs growth below 75,000 per month, or persistent disinflation.
3. Put balance sheet normalization on auto-pilot and let it run “on background.” Don’t use it as a policy tool.
Simple.

What does this model tell us about a rate hike in December?
Disinflation has been strong and persistent. The Fed’s main metric for this (core PCE deflator year-over-year) has dropped from 1.9% in January to 1.4% in July. The August reading comes out on September 29. This time series is moving strongly in the wrong direction from the Fed’s perspective. This is what caused the September “pause” (which we predicted for readers last March).
After seven months of decline, one month of increase, if it comes, will not be enough to get the Fed to end the pause. It would take at least two months of increases to change the Fed’s mind.

How do I know this?   For one thing, the Fed explains this all the time. It’s just that the media won’t listen; they’re too busy chasing dots.

It’s true that Stan Fischer is leaving the board soon, but the White House has been in no hurry to fill vacancies. The Big Four will still be The Big Three (Yellen, Dudley and Brainard) when the December meeting rolls around and the analysis will be the same.

Eventually the markets will figure this out. Right now, markets are giving a 70% chance of a rate hike in December based on CME Fed Funds futures. That rate will drop to below 20% by Dec. 13 when the FOMC meets again with a press conference. (There’s another meeting on Nov. 1, but no one expects any policy changes then).


Now, with respect to quantitative tightening (QT), the same way they tapered QE, they’re going to “taper” QT. This time however, they’re going to taper upward. Meaning they’re going to go from $10 billion a month not being rolled over to $20 billion, $30 billion, etc.

Eventually, the amount of securities they don’t roll over will go up until the balance sheet controlled by the Fed comes down to the targeted figure. The projection is that it could take five years to achieve. The problem is we might not make it that far before the entire system collapses.

We’re in a new reality. But the Fed doesn’t realize it.

Here’s what the Fed wants you to believe…
The Fed wants you to think that QT will not have any impact. Fed leadership speaks in code and has a word for this which you’ll hear called “background.”
The Fed wants this to run on background. Think of running on background like someone using a computer to access email while downloading something on background.

This is complete nonsense

The decision by the Fed to not purchase new bonds will be just as detrimental to the growth of the economy as raising interest rates.
The Fed’s QT policy that aims to tighten monetary conditions, reduce the money supply and increase interest rates will cause the economy to hit a wall, if it hasn’t already.
The economy is slowing. Even without any action, retail sales, real incomes, auto sales and even labor force participation are all declining. Every important economic indicator shows that the U.S. economy is slowing right now. When you add in QT, we may very well be in a recession very soon.
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POLITICS
La seudo democ y sist  duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y corrupto. Urge cambiarlo



"The worst mistake in U.S. history was the conversion after World War II of the U.S. government from a constitutional, limited-government republic to a national-security state. Nothing has done more to warp and distort the conscience, principles, and values of the American people, including those who serve in the U.S. military."
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"The role of media as officialdom’s trusted gatekeepers had been declining in influence for years, but the 2016 election served as the real wakeup call for a discredited establishment. Control of mass consciousness had been lost."
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo


The E.O. directly targets North Korea's shipping and trade networks and issues a 180-day ban on vessels and aircraft that have visited North Korea from visiting the United States. This ban also targets vessels that have engaged in a ship-to-ship transfer with a vessel that has visited North Korea within 180 days.
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"A planned intercept was not achieved..."
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Is it right or moral to support a secession movement that, in the short- and medium- terms is almost guaranteed to adopt policies that are counter to the cause of freedom and free markets? ... the answer is the same whether we're talking about secession in Scotland, in California, or in Catalonia: the answer is YES.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan


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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol crisis leads to more business-wars:  profiteers US-NATO under screen


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3




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Trump Pushes US Closer to War   By Jeffrey D. Sachs
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COUNTER PUNCH 


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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered .. pro RU view


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RT SHOWS
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Keiser Report   Episode 1126 On capitulation on bad bets against China. + interv 2 with Jim Rickards
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight to break with collapsing Empire:  leftist view on alternatives


                - Contra el despojo... lucha por el socialismo   OLEP
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Chile     Chile y el libre comercio en los tiempos de Trump  Patricio López
                La renuncia del equipo económico de Bachelet  Sebastián Zarricueta
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                Una verdad incómoda: el cambio climático  Alberto Acosta
                Robots entre una solución y una amenaza  Joseph Chamie
                “El que no se mueve no escucha el ruido de sus cadenas”  Iulen Lizaso
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FEM       Salud mental & capitalismo  Mujeres encerradas  Varias
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ALC        Guatemala:   Paro nacional, privatización y despojo  Andrés Cabanas
                Guatemala:  Manifestaciones de protesta ciudadana
                Guatemala Miles de personas se movilizan contra corrupción e impunidad
                Guatemala   El principio del fin   Víctor Ferrigno
                Brasil: -Una nueva vieja derecha  Emir Sader
                Cuba: historia sin sustento  ¿Agresión a diplomáticos USA en La Habana?  S A
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                - Todos somos Venezuela (I)  Ángel Guerra
                Proclama de Caracas:  Todos Somos Venezuela
                Esquizofrenia a la venezolana   Aram Aharonian
                El chocolate de la vergüenza   Ana Cristina Bracho
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                El golpe militar de Estados Unidos en cámara lenta  Steph Kinzer
                Trump amenaza ONU con "destrucción total" de Corea del Norte  DB
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Keiser Report   Las malas apuestas
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers.. Titles distorted n incomplete sentences


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Debate: US Mideast plans  Failed US Mideast  plans
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