UKRAINE
GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION REACH ‘INITIAL’ DEAL
INTRODUCTION
By Hugo
Adan Feb 21, 2014
1.
The whole vs the part, the forest vs the
tree is the usual dilemma when analyzing
uprisings. If we do not combine both,
the dilemma became obsolete. The best approach on
uprising is the systems version of
Luhmann and Maturana (LM). To LM the key concepts of systems are
autopoiesis (auto-creation) and self-reference as capacity to constitute and
modify in autonomous way their own structures. Both of them, autopoiesis and
self reference, are dynamics that are operated
inside the system between key elements, or parts or components of the social
system. The later (self-reference) implies that key elements of a social system
always keep communication inside if they really want to provide social change.
The only condition is that those elements are aware of the difference of what
belongs to the internal system vs what belongs to the external macro-system (or
context). If key elements of a social system cannot make such a difference
there is not chance for autonomy, but instead for dependency and submission. If dependent and submitted to external pressure, such elements do NOT belong to the internal system anymore.
Key elements of a social system can create new changes –different from what is imposed from outsiders- only on the bases of internal self-communication or self-reference. Is what I see, in the initial deal between the opposition and the government below.
Key elements of a social system can create new changes –different from what is imposed from outsiders- only on the bases of internal self-communication or self-reference. Is what I see, in the initial deal between the opposition and the government below.
Autopoiesis (concept
imported by the biologist Maturana) is now a sociological concept that focus on
key “events” those that brings new beings into existence, like fecundation in
biology. In a social system there are “events” whose duration equals zero since
their components or elements disappears at the moment of the creation of a new
being like the sperm and ovule in fecundation. The special feature of such
events is that it divides history into before and after without denying that
the fact, the real moment or event, really happened. This phenomena happen only
inside the social system and the condition is that the elements that unite to
create a new being has to be healthy before the event, and that is the
difference between the biological and sociological “event”. In biology, defective elements can create defective
new beings, in sociology there is not such a fecundation.
Nothing is born from decaying, corrupted and defective elements. Imperialists relations with nations in process of development do not produce a new life, that relation instead kill life, many life to reproduce imperialism. This is the problem that Ukraine is facing now.
Nothing is born from decaying, corrupted and defective elements. Imperialists relations with nations in process of development do not produce a new life, that relation instead kill life, many life to reproduce imperialism. This is the problem that Ukraine is facing now.
2. When putting together the tree and the forest, we should consider the following
possible panorama.
A- We are in the process of a REGIMEN CHANGE American style that
already failed in Libya and it is about to fail in Syria.
B- The violence we are witnessing in Ukraine is getting out
of hands of domestic players (government vs. opposition) since the US
and other outside players are already intervening (beyond the Macro players of the region, the
European Union and Russia).
C- The international community wonder why the Army did not
participate as happens worldwide in this cases to help the police to keep social order and impose a curfew. When a social system is disintegrated as it
happens in Ukraine by the current rebellion, what usually comes is a curfew
that doesn’t need the approval of the Parliament but a single Presidential
decree as it happens in Waco, Texas in the USA, to mention the worse case in point (1993: On Feb 28 Pdt Clinton and
Janet Reno, the Attorney General, ordered the massacre of 76 cultists declared
in rebellion. Among the people incinerated alive there were children, women and
the leader David Koresh. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waco_siege
No one single foreigner was allowed to demand REGIME CHANGE in the US ). The
army intervention in Ukraine is a possibility still on, but there is another option.
D- The other option is a REGIME
CHANGE Egypt style. This could emerge from the current situation: a coup d’etat
similar to the one that happens in Egypt after Mubarak was forced to give up power.
E- If that option does not happens, there is another one, the
one that the international community is scare about: the escalation of the conflict
toward nuclear confrontation between US and Russia. So the initial deal
could be seen as the time for implemented or paved such a road.
F- If the previous escalation continues one of the current
players will be displaced (as Victoria Nula announced before in her ‘Fuck the EU the European
Union), that player is Germany, the leader of the EU. We should remember that the EU is far allowing the intervention in Ukraine matters to the US and
NATO players, knowing that this could
escalate toward a nuclear confrontation.
G- If the escalation of outside player continue Germany will
face a disjunctive: either break with NATO or subordinate to them. If
subordinate, Germany became the real loser.
Without war, Germany is the sole winner
of the game at economic level, at this moment. They are about to be independent
of Russian and Muslim gas, but a war could erase this road.
H- What if the option D (Egypt model of regimen change) is
implemented?. The Ukraine regime will be deposed by the military (including the Parliament and
Judicial system) and a façade Civilian Regime will be installed from selected
personnel from the ex-Parliament and Judiciay. A curfew will be declared and the tanks and soldiers will
disarm the opposition or crashed if they resist. Order will be restored in a matter of few weeks
and the current President and leaders of
the opposition will be put in prison (liberated in case need it for next
elections). A new Constitution draft will be proposed and a Referendum will approved, elections
will be called. The EU and Russia + China will provide the financial support to
this coup d’etat for them to cover basic needs a restore “democracy”. This will
be also a regime change, but the other way around, with the Ukraine armed
forces as main player.
I- What would happen If the worse option (nuclear blackmail) is
imposed by the US-NATO, with the support of some countries in Europe
(case of UK) and the royalties from the middle East? Russia, China and Iran will
respond. Russia may re-direct their nuke missiles toward Poland and other
countries that have ballistic missiles pointed toward Russia and China to
counter-balance the current siege. Russia and Iran may take control of the
Persian gulf’ flow of gas to Europe. This will cause a realignment and people revolts against NATO. Syria may be liberated from the mercenaries
jihadists with massive response, Chechenia style. It will be expected a response from US
allies: Israel, Saudis & Qatar, so they may be the 1st hit of
Russia China and Iran nuke missiles. The
trap is set. If the US respond,
Russia-China may immediately hit the
US. Since America has never been bombed, it is expected an initial civil
population show of chauvinism but the collapse of the economy will trigger separatisms
soon after the brief exchange of nukes. Separatism is a point of not return
after the clash: new regional Federations may emerge. Is the international
community ready for this type of disaster? I do not think so. But it is that could
happens if we do not handle NATO properly their current politics of REGIME
CHANGE.
Is that what the Ukraine people wanted?. Not, of course no. If NATO allies continue
intervening in their domestic affairs,
they have only two choices: the Syrian
model of REGIME CHANGE with the destruction of the whole country, OR, the
Egyptian model of REGIME CHANGE, with tanks and soldiers patrolling
streets and re-instating order.
Is there a 3rd
option?. Yes. The one that is drafted now THE
INITIAL DEAL that means internal communication inside main players. However, to
succeed it requires that the opposition be disarmed and restrain form street
demonstrations so that order be restored and opposition leaders be “saved” from snipers and the whole country and
the whole humanity saved from nuclear devastation.
If current leaders of Ukraine do not care for the fate of humanity in a nuclear war, then welcome the snipers. But in such a case I would prefer options C or better D, if the irresponsible leaders continue disrupting peace. So, welcome the D day above described.
If current leaders of Ukraine do not care for the fate of humanity in a nuclear war, then welcome the snipers. But in such a case I would prefer options C or better D, if the irresponsible leaders continue disrupting peace. So, welcome the D day above described.
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UKRAINE GOVERNMENT, OPPOSITION REACH ‘INITIAL’
DEAL
The Ukrainian government says it has reached an “initial” agreement with the opposition to resolve the ongoing crisis following days of deadly clashes in the country.
According to a statement released by the Ukrainian presidential press service on Friday, the Ukraine government hammered out an “initial” deal with the opposition and EU ministers from Poland, Germany and France on resolving the country's crisis-hit situation.
The statement said the deal will be signed later at noon local time on Friday, but did not provide any details of the agreement.
The opposition and EU ministers, however, did not immediately confirm that agreement had been reached. An EU diplomatic source told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the talks proved to be “very difficult.”
Ukraine's Health Ministry says nearly 77 people have been killed and more than 500 injured since the latest round of violence broke out on February 18.
The victims include both demonstrators and security forces. Many of those killed reportedly died of gunshot wounds.
Ukraine has been rocked by anti-government protests since Yanukovych refrained from signing an Association Agreement with the European Union on November 29, 2013, in favor of closer ties with Russia.
Kiev and Moscow reached a strategic economic and trade deal last December, which provides Ukraine with significant discounts on imported Russian gas and billions of dollars in credit.
MOS/NN/HMV
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