ND
FEB 28 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Econ debacle in the US escalated quickly
It was a
historic week... a brick killed a gay
S&P
crashed from peak to correction at the fastest pace in history...
See Chart:
Fasted correction in the S&P500
on record
Dow
crashed from peak to correction at its fastest pace since 1928 - right before
The Great Depression
See Chart:
Right on time...we're gonna need
more liquidity...
See Chart:
Nasdaq
Y2K vs. Nsdaq NOW
Some more
historical context...
See Chart:
How the CV crash now compared to
Historic Market falls
The last 7 days has been carnage...
See Chart:
As SunTrust’s chief market strategist Keith Lerner
wrote:
"Investors are selling stocks first and
asking questions later."
“We are seeing signs of pure liquidation. ‘Get me out at any cost’ seems to be the
prevailing mood. There is little doubt the coronavirus will
continue to weigh on the global economy, and the U.S. will not be immune. There
is much we do not know. However, it is also premature to suggest the base case
for the U.S. economy is recession.”
But, James McCormick, global head of desk strategy at
NatWest Markets noted:
“Asset prices diverged
significantly from growth in the past year, in part because of central bank
policy, but also because
passive investment’s main signal is price action.
“The COVID-19 escalation runs a
real risk of virtuous cycle turning to a vicious one. Either way, given where growth estimates are
heading for the next few months, I’d expect more downside.”
Some of the week/month/year's high- and low-lights...
- S&P is down 7 days in a row - longest losing streak since Nov 2016 (worst month since Feb 2009 - equal to Dec 2018's drop, worst week since Lehman - Oct 2008)
- Dow is down 7 days in a row - longest losing streak since June 2018 (worst month since Feb 2009, worst week since Lehman - Oct 2008)
- Dow volume today hit an all-time record high.
- MAGA stocks lost $780 Billion in market cap in the last 7 days.
- World stocks lost $5 trillion in market cap in the last 7 days
- VIX exploded 30 points higher in Feb - its biggest monthly spike in vols ever
- Bank stocks suffered their biggest weekly drop since March 2009(worst month since Feb 2009)
- Airline stocks suffered their biggest weekly drop since March 2009 (worst month since Nov 2008)
- 2Y yields fell 39bps in Feb - the biggest yield drop since Nov 2008
- 30Y yields fell 33bps in Feb - the biggest yield drop since Aug 2019
- Treasury Vol highest since Sept 2013
- HY Credit Spreads widened by the most since the financial crisis in Feb
- The USDollar rose by the most since July 2019 in Feb (but the worst week since 2019)
- Silver suffered its worst monthly drop since May 2016
- Gold's worst day today since June 2013
- Oil collapsed again in February for its worst start to a year since 1991
At its low today, the Dow wiped out
almost all of last year's 22% gain...
See Chart:
Stocks rebounded a little today on
hopes of an emergency cut this weekend... but that failed... and then sheer
panic-buying (PPT?) which pushed Nasdaq just into the green!!!
See Chart:
Just look at the closing ramp - End
of month flows? Algos gone wild...
See Chart:
Notably Nasdaq bounced off its
200DMA...
See Chart:
Looks like month-end rebalancing,
and bonds reversed after the cash close...
See Chart:
30Y Yield & Nasdaq
Fed speakers and Jay Powell issued statements which definitely
didn't suggest that a Sunday night rescue was planned (despite
Kevin Warsh's urging)...
0830ET Kaplan: "I'll be prepared to make a judgement as we go into
the March meeting, I am
trying to keep my attention on what's going on in the underlying economy."
0905ET Bullard: "Further policy rate cuts are a possibility if a
global pandemic actually develops with health effects approaching the scale of
ordinary influenza, but this is not the baseline case at this time... Longer-term U.S. interest rates
have been driven lower by a global flight to safety, likely benefiting the U.S.
economy." Bullard added that "even with the current stock market
price drop, equities have been on a long upswing."
1030ET Bullard spoke again reaffirming that US GDP Forecasts "don't look
very severe" and
The Fed is "willing to react if virus has major impact but will want to
wait and monitor events until the next meeting."
1430ET Powell: "The
fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the
coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. The Federal Reserve is
closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic
outlook. We will use our
tools and act as appropriate to support the economy."
Powell's pumping plan failed...
See Chart:
Marvelous Min of Econ we have… but
market laws imposed its rules
CNBC's Steve Liesman also summed things up well:
"At what level of interest rates would I
be willing to go to a rock concert and risk infection?"
Nevertheless, the market is now
demanding 36bps of cuts in March (so
one cut guaranteed and a 50% or so chance of 50bps), additionally market
is pricing in 65bps of cuts by June.
See Chart
Market implied Rate-Cut in
March: DOWN
China, finally, was ugly overnight,
starting to catch down to EU and US stocks since Covid-19 struck... Neoliberal
globalizat is still on & China has 1 leg on it & in SOEs d oth
See Chart:
Covid- 19: Headlines Begin
Of course China will jump out of global mess.. How they will do it? Nobody knows.
US: Despite today's desperate
attempt to rebound - perhaps on hopes of an emergency rate-cut by The Fed this
weekend and Powell's statement - the S&P and Dow are down 7 days in a row...with 4 intraday 1,000
point drops in a row
See Chart:
The S&P 500 just suffered its
fastest crash from peak to correction ever... and US stocks saw their worst
week since Lehman (Oct 2008), leaving everything red year-to-date...
See Chart:
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“Crash-down, crash-up” - Rinse... Repeat...!
In the breathless words of Ron Burgundy, "well, that
escalated quickly!" Amid all the calls for The Fed
to rescue investors with 1, 2, 3, or even 4 rate-cuts...
See Chart:
Nomura's Charlie McElligott provides the details of what
sparked the greatest drop from a peak into correction in the history of the
stock market...
See Chart:
Into options
expiries for both US Equities and USTs / Rates late last week, we had seen Dealers extraordinarily “Long Gamma” in each of
these “ultimate” asset-classes thanks to recently placid “financial conditions”
See Chart:
However and
following the large expiries late last wk (VIX last Weds, everything-else last
Fri), these two “macro shock catalysts” created a profoundly negative price
impulse which sent “spot” levels in Equities Index, Equities Vol and Rates
deeply through prior ranges, which drove Dealers into “Short Gamma”
territory - meaning that instead of
insulating market moves as they had been previously, that now Dealer hedging
flows would see them pressing into the directional moves (in this case,
shorting into the new lows in Equities index, or buying VIX- and USTs- / STIRS-
the more they “rallied”)
See Chart:
But if you really want to know how we got here, it's a
longer tale that for
former Dallas Fed's Fisher noted yesterday:
"Does The Fed really want to have a put
every time the market gets nervous? ...Coming off all-time highs, does it make sense for The Fed to bail
the markets out every single time... creating a trap?"
"The Fed has created this
dependency and there's an entire generation of money-managers who weren't around in '74, '87, the end of
the '90s, anbd even 2007-2009.. and have only seen a one-way street... of course they're nervous."
"The question is - do you want to feed that hunger? Keep applying that opioid of cheap and
abundant money?"
"the market is getting
ahead of itself, because the market is dependent on Fed largesse... and
we made it that way...
...but we have to consider, through a statement rather than an action,
that we must wean the
market off its dependency on a Fed put."
IT'S NOT THE VIRUS, IT'S THE FED STUPID!
….
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"We
think the Fed will cut 50bp in the meeting as a way to stem panic"
Notably, not even the market expects a full 3 rate cuts by
the end of June, which suggests that for all its
cheerful optimism, Goldman is bracing for its "downside scenario"
materializing.
See Chart:
Market –Implied Rate Change by June
….
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"If the selloff continues into next week,no one will want to price with that level of weakness in the
market."
====
US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
HACIA
LA CIRCULACION DE ELITES para afirmar EL SOCIALISMO
Hugo
Adan. Febrero 29-20
…
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It appears
that every response offered by the Trump administration to contain the
coronavirus pandemic, is wrong.
====
For women, the
number rises to an astounding 66
weeks...
====
...if the Democrats again somehow try to
sabotage Bernie, then they will be the ones feeling the “Bern” as they will be utterly crushed by Trump,
====
"Grocery
delivery is at core, but plan is to add more perks that Amazon can’t easily
match."
====
“Gold is the money of kings, silver
is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants – but debt is the money of slaves.” – Norm Franz
====
Authorities
have a choice: i) Adopt Draconian quarantine measures and trigger a global
recession as worldwide economic activity grinds to a halt, or ii) risk a
pandemic by failing to take more aggressive action also resulting in a global
recession.
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
“It is extremely
concerning to see people endangering their own lives and the lives
of others by trying to interfere with the trains,”
====
As far as realpolitik Afghanistan is concerned, with or without a deal, the US military want
to stay in what is a priceless Greater Middle East base to deploy hybrid war techniques...
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Entre la
Pandemia WW3 que viene y el CV que se va.
Ya no mata pero deja enfermos
1-
A little known financial
mechanism set up by the World Bank could be behind the decision not to declare the coronavirus a
pandemic...
2-
Not even in
the depths of the global financial crisis did China suffer such a spectacular
collapse.
….
Si China colapsa, el US se jode luego: de alli viene lo mas barato al
consumidor
====
The Greek
Prime Minister has vowed "no illegal entries into Greece will be
tolerated"...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI ORG
====
RT
EN ESPAÑOL
RU en la ONU: "Siria tiene derecho de responder
ataques de terroristas en su territorio" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344470-rusia-siria-tener-derecho-responder-terroristas
Nueva jornada de protestas en Chile coincide con el
último día del Festival de Viña https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344466-nueva-jornada-protestas-chile-gobierno
Irán contesta a Pompeo : "No es noble alegrarse
del sufrimiento de otros seres humanos" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344492-iran-contestar-pompeo-oferta-ayuda-ridicula-coronavirus
Putin propone prohibir que altos cargos de RU,
incluido el presid, tengan cuentas banca en el extranj https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344440-putin-prohibir-altos-cargos-presidente-cuentas-bancarias-extranjero
Abogado: "La solicitud de extradición de
Assange atenta contra la democracia" https://actualidad.rt.com/video/344481-abogado-solicitud-extradicion-assange-democracia
México pide evaluar la auditoría de la OEA de los
comicios en Bolivia https://actualidad.rt.com/video/344480-mexico-pide-evaluar-auditoria-oea-comicios-bolivia
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EL RESTO PARA
MANIANA
….
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