sábado, 29 de febrero de 2020

ND FEB 28 SIT EC y POL



ND  FEB  28  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Econ debacle in the US escalated quickly

It was a historic week... a brick killed a gay
S&P crashed from peak to correction at the fastest pace in history...
See  Chart:
Fasted correction in the S&P500 on record

Dow crashed from peak to correction at its fastest pace since 1928 - right before The Great Depression
See Chart:

Right on time...we're gonna need more liquidity...
See Chart:
Nasdaq Y2K  vs. Nsdaq NOW


Some more historical context...
See Chart:
How the CV crash now compared to Historic Market falls

The last 7 days has been carnage...
See Chart:

As SunTrust’s chief market strategist  Keith Lerner wrote:
"Investors are selling stocks first and asking questions later."
“We are seeing signs of pure liquidation‘Get me out at any cost’ seems to be the prevailing mood. There is little doubt the coronavirus will continue to weigh on the global economy, and the U.S. will not be immune. There is much we do not know. However, it is also premature to suggest the base case for the U.S. economy is recession.”

But, James McCormick, global head of desk strategy at NatWest Markets noted:
Asset prices diverged significantly from growth in the past year, in part because of central bank policy, but also because passive investment’s main signal is price action.
The COVID-19 escalation runs a real risk of virtuous cycle turning to a vicious one. Either way, given where growth estimates are heading for the next few months, I’d expect more downside.”

Some of the week/month/year's high- and low-lights...
  • S&P is down 7 days in a row - longest losing streak since Nov 2016 (worst month since Feb 2009 - equal to Dec 2018's drop, worst week since Lehman - Oct 2008)
  • Dow is down 7 days in a row - longest losing streak since June 2018 (worst month since Feb 2009, worst week since Lehman - Oct 2008)
  • Dow volume today hit an all-time record high.
  • MAGA stocks lost $780 Billion in market cap in the last 7 days.
  • World stocks lost $5 trillion in market cap in the last 7 days
  • VIX exploded 30 points higher in Feb - its biggest monthly spike in vols ever
  • Bank stocks suffered their biggest weekly drop since March 2009(worst month since Feb 2009)
  • Airline stocks suffered their biggest weekly drop since March 2009 (worst month since Nov 2008)
  • 2Y yields fell 39bps in Feb - the biggest yield drop since Nov 2008
  • 30Y yields fell 33bps in Feb - the biggest yield drop since Aug 2019
  • Treasury Vol highest since Sept 2013
  • HY Credit Spreads widened by the most since the financial crisis in Feb
  • The USDollar rose by the most since July 2019 in Feb (but the worst week since 2019)
  • Silver suffered its worst monthly drop since May 2016
  • Gold's worst day today since June 2013
  • Oil collapsed again in February for its worst start to a year since 1991

At its low today, the Dow wiped out almost all of last year's 22% gain...
See Chart:

Stocks rebounded a little today on hopes of an emergency cut this weekend... but that failed... and then sheer panic-buying (PPT?) which pushed Nasdaq just into the green!!!
See Chart:

Just look at the closing ramp - End of month flows? Algos gone wild...
See Chart:

Notably Nasdaq bounced off its 200DMA...
See Chart:

Looks like month-end rebalancing, and bonds reversed after the cash close...
See Chart:
30Y Yield & Nasdaq

Fed speakers and Jay Powell issued statements which definitely didn't suggest that a Sunday night rescue was planned (despite Kevin Warsh's urging)...
0830ET Kaplan: "I'll be prepared to make a judgement as we go into the March meeting, I am trying to keep my attention on what's going on in the underlying economy."
0905ET Bullard: "Further policy rate cuts are a possibility if a global pandemic actually develops with health effects approaching the scale of ordinary influenza, but this is not the baseline case at this time... Longer-term U.S. interest rates have been driven lower by a global flight to safety, likely benefiting the U.S. economy." Bullard added that "even with the current stock market price drop, equities have been on a long upswing."
1030ET Bullard spoke again reaffirming that US GDP Forecasts "don't look very severeand The Fed is "willing to react if virus has major impact but will want to wait and monitor events until the next meeting."
1430ET Powell: "The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy."

Powell's pumping plan failed...
See Chart:
Marvelous Min of Econ we have… but market laws imposed its rules

CNBC's Steve Liesman also summed things up well:
"At what level of interest rates would I be willing to go to a rock concert and risk infection?"

Nevertheless, the market is now demanding 36bps of cuts in March (so one cut guaranteed and a 50% or so chance of 50bps), additionally market is pricing in 65bps of cuts by June.
See Chart
Market implied Rate-Cut in March:  DOWN

China, finally, was ugly overnight, starting to catch down to EU and US stocks since Covid-19 struck... Neoliberal globalizat is still on & China has 1 leg on it & in SOEs d oth
See Chart:
Covid- 19: Headlines Begin
Of course China will jump out of global mess.. How they will do it? Nobody knows.

US: Despite today's desperate attempt to rebound - perhaps on hopes of an emergency rate-cut by The Fed this weekend and Powell's statement - the S&P and Dow are down 7 days in a row...with 4 intraday 1,000 point drops in a row
See Chart: 

The S&P 500 just suffered its fastest crash from peak to correction ever... and US stocks saw their worst week since Lehman (Oct 2008), leaving everything red year-to-date...
See Chart:
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“Crash-down, crash-up” - Rinse... Repeat...!

In the breathless words of Ron Burgundy, "well, that escalated quickly!" Amid all the calls for The Fed to rescue investors with 1, 2, 3, or even 4 rate-cuts...
See Chart:

Nomura's Charlie McElligott provides the details of what sparked the greatest drop from a peak into correction in the history of the stock market...
See Chart:

Into options expiries for both US Equities and USTs / Rates late last week, we had seen Dealers extraordinarily “Long Gamma” in each of these “ultimate” asset-classes thanks to recently placid “financial conditions” 
See Chart:

However and following the large expiries late last wk (VIX last Weds, everything-else last Fri), these two “macro shock catalysts” created a profoundly negative price impulse which sent “spot” levels in Equities Index, Equities Vol and Rates deeply through prior ranges, which drove Dealers into “Short Gamma”  territory - meaning that instead of insulating market moves as they had been previously, that now Dealer hedging flows would see them pressing into the directional moves (in this case, shorting into the new lows in Equities index, or buying VIX- and USTs- / STIRS- the more they “rallied”)
See Chart:

But if you really want to know how we got here, it's a longer tale that for  former Dallas Fed's Fisher noted yesterday:
"Does The Fed really want to have a put every time the market gets nervous? ...Coming off all-time highs, does it make sense for The Fed to bail the markets out every single time... creating a trap?"
"The Fed has created this dependency and there's an entire generation of money-managers who weren't around in '74, '87, the end of the '90s, anbd even 2007-2009.. and have only seen a one-way street... of course they're nervous."
"The question is - do you want to feed that hunger? Keep applying that opioid of cheap and abundant money?"
"the market is getting ahead of itself, because the market is dependent on Fed largesse... and we made it that way...
...but we have to consider, through a statement rather than an action, that we must wean the market off its dependency on a Fed put."

IT'S NOT THE VIRUS, IT'S THE FED STUPID!
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"We think the Fed will cut 50bp in the meeting as a way to stem panic"
Notably, not even the market expects a full 3 rate cuts by the end of June, which suggests that for all its cheerful optimism, Goldman is bracing for its "downside scenario" materializing.
See Chart:
Market –Implied  Rate Change by June
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"If the selloff continues into next week,no one will want to price with that level of weakness in the market." 
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


HACIA LA CIRCULACION DE ELITES para afirmar EL SOCIALISMO
Hugo Adan. Febrero 29-20
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It appears that every response offered by the Trump administration to contain the coronavirus pandemic, is wrong.
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For women, the number rises to an astounding 66 weeks...
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...if the Democrats again somehow try to sabotage Bernie, then they will be the ones feeling the “Bern” as they will be utterly crushed by Trump,
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"Grocery delivery is at core, but plan is to add more perks that Amazon can’t easily match." 
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Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants – but debt is the money of slaves. – Norm Franz
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Authorities have a choice: i) Adopt Draconian quarantine measures and trigger a global recession as worldwide economic activity grinds to a halt, or ii) risk a pandemic by failing to take more aggressive action also resulting in a global recession.
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


“It is extremely concerning to see people endangering their own lives and the lives of others by trying to interfere with the trains,”
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As far as realpolitik Afghanistan is concerned, with or without a deal, the US military want to stay in what is a priceless Greater Middle East base to deploy hybrid war techniques...
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Entre la Pandemia WW3 que viene y el CV que  se va. Ya no mata pero deja enfermos
1-
A little known financial mechanism set up by the World Bank could be behind the decision not to declare the coronavirus a pandemic...
2-
Not even in the depths of the global financial crisis did China suffer such a spectacular collapse.
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Si China colapsa, el US se jode luego: de alli viene lo mas barato al consumidor
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The Greek Prime Minister has vowed "no illegal entries into Greece will be tolerated"...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

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ALAI  ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

RU en la ONU: "Siria tiene derecho de responder ataques de terroristas en su territorio" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344470-rusia-siria-tener-derecho-responder-terroristas
Nueva jornada de protestas en Chile coincide con el último día del Festival de Viña  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344466-nueva-jornada-protestas-chile-gobierno
Irán contesta a Pompeo : "No es noble alegrarse del sufrimiento de otros seres humanos" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344492-iran-contestar-pompeo-oferta-ayuda-ridicula-coronavirus
Putin propone prohibir que altos cargos de RU, incluido el presid, tengan cuentas banca en el extranj https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344440-putin-prohibir-altos-cargos-presidente-cuentas-bancarias-extranjero
Abogado: "La solicitud de extradición de Assange atenta contra la democracia"   https://actualidad.rt.com/video/344481-abogado-solicitud-extradicion-assange-democracia
México pide evaluar la auditoría de la OEA de los comicios en Bolivia   https://actualidad.rt.com/video/344480-mexico-pide-evaluar-auditoria-oea-comicios-bolivia
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EL RESTO PARA  MANIANA
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