ND
FEB 10 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
US Econ situation today:
Another day, another
record high for US stocks led by the Nasdaq - despite more
quarantines, more cases, more deaths, and more uncertainty about whether any
production of anything is back online.
Nasdaq surged 1% today - for no good
reason to a new record high with the S&P 500 - and Trannies ramped into the
close to get green
See Chart:
Super-Expensive, high-growth
software stocks soared...
See Chart:
And as
Nasdaq roars to another record high, THE YIELD CURVE RE-INVERTS...
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs.
Yield curve
To clarify:
- Jan 1. Buy stocks cause the global economy is recovering
- Feb 10. Buy stocks cause the global economy is about to suffer the biggest quarterly hit since the financial crisis
...makes
perfect sense.
….
[[ Check the VIDEO: Top Gun: BECAUSE IT WAS INVERTED ]]
….
But the breadth of this stock market
rally is becoming thinner and thinner...
Across asset classes - stocks are
alone...
See Chart:
WTI
: Nasdaq vs 30Y Yield
And within equity markets, for a
sense of the narrowness, short-term, equal-weight S&P is underperforming...
See Chart:
And even more clear, from the
Value-Line Geometric Index - which infers the performance of the 'median' stock
- things are not going as well as the broad market indices suggest...
See Chart:
S&P 500 vs.
“Median” US Stocks
Chinese stocks continued to grind
higher & higher with Shenzhen Composite erasing all the virus losses and
ChiNext now up 6% since the start of it...
See Chart:
VIX is also not buying what stocks
are selling here...
See Chart:
And credit markets ain't buying it
either...
See Chart:
Treasury bonds were bid (alongside
stocks) with the entire curve 3-4bps lower in yield (almost entirely erasing
last week's early-week surge)...
See Chart:
UST 30Y yields dropped back near
2.00% once again (and 10Y back below 1.60%)...
See Chart:
The B-dollar extended recent gains
early on -to 2-month highs - before fading back towards unch...
See Chart:
WTI tumbled back below the key $50
level once again...
See Chart:
And, as
we noted last night, oil
prices will probably drop to the "mid-$40s" a barrel in the next couple
of weeks because of weak demand, according to Matt Stanley,
director of Starfuels commodities brokerage.
Supply isn't an issue but demand is and demand growth is so fragile that an excuse
like coronavirus has caused the 15% drop in prices the past few weeks, Stanley
told the 7th annual Global Commodity Outlook conference in Dubai on Sunday.
OPEC and 10 allies, including Russia, are debating whether to institute
deeper production cuts to stem the price slide, but Stanley said the coalition,
known as OPEC+, should instead be looking to increase output to revive demand
growth. "Cutting supply to
keep prices up is not the way to do it," he said.
And judging by the collapse in The Baltic Dry Index - back
near record lows - oil is going to get to the $30s...
See Chart:
WT I Crude vs Baltic Dry index
Oh and in case you were wondering,
'mini'-Mike Bloomberg has surpassed the entire field of Democratic Presidential
nominees apart from Bernie...
See Chart:
….
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The Federal Reserve can not fix this problem, and the next 'bear market' will
NOT be like that last... IT WILL
BE WORSE...
READ THE FULL ARTICLE: Here only main thesis
Shawn Langlois recently penned
an interesting article:
“Despite a few notable hiccups along the way, the bull market continues to prove insanely
resilient.”
What was most interesting, however, was the following quote:
“Current hyper-valued extremes are likely to be followed by market
losses on the order of two-thirds of the value of the S&P 500.”
The immediate response by most individuals is a 60%+ decline
is an outlandish and impossible event given ongoing Central Bank interventions.
But is it
really?
Check S&P 500
corection at 10%, 20%,30%, 40% and then go to the nex:
50% correction: At this point,
retiring is no longer an option for most.
See Chart:
60% Correction
A 60% correction is not entirely out
of the question. As
I have discussed previously, the next mean reverting event will
likely be the last. Corrections of such a magnitude would reset
portfolios back to 1999 levels. The devastation will be
greater than investors can currently imagine and retirement goals would be
erased entirely.
See Chart:
There are numerous catalysts which could pressure such a
downturn in the equity markets:
- An exogenous geopolitical event
- A credit-related event
- Failure of a major financial institution
- Recession
- Falling profits and earnings
- A loss of confidence by corporations which contacts share buybacks
Whatever
the event is, which is currently unexpected and unanticipated, the decline in
asset prices will initiate a “chain
reaction.”
- Investors will begin to panic as asset prices drop, curtailing economic activity, and further pressuring economic growth.
- The pressure on asset prices and weaker economic growth, which impairs corporate earnings, shifts corporate views from “share repurchases” to “liquidity preservation.” This removes a major support of asset prices.
- As asset prices decline further, and economic growth deteriorates, credit defaults begin triggering a near $5 Trillion corporate bond market problem.
- The bond market decline will pressure asset prices lower, which triggers an aging demographic who fears the loss of pension benefits, sparks the $6 trillion pension problem.
- As the market continues to cascade lower at this point, the Fed is monetizing nearly 100% of all debt issuance, and has to resort to even more drastic measures to stem selling and defaults.
- Those actions lead to a further loss of confidence and pressures markets even further.
WHAT THE FED CAN DO?
The
Federal Reserve can not fix this problem, and the next “bear market”
will NOT be like that last.
It will be worse.
None of this will happen, you say?
Maybe? I certainly hope not.
But are you actually willing to bet
your retirement on it?
….
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"I consider $15,000
gold and flat stocks+bonds to be a more realistic scenario than
$1,500 gold and the SPX back under 2,000..."
The Role of Gold
Today
Most central banks hold a portion of their reserves in the
form of physical gold. Subsequent to the global financial crisis of 2008-9,
central banks have been accumulating gold at a historically elevated pace. As
seen in the chart below, purchases reached a record high in 2019.
Chart 1:
Central Bank Purchases of Gold Increased in 2019
See Chart:
Private investors have also been accumulating gold. While
Asian investors tend to acquire physical gold, those in
the West commonly do so through ETFs – a proxy for overall Western investment
demand, which was also particularly strong in 2019.
Chart 2:
Holdings in Global Gold-backed ETFs Reached a New Record in September
See Chart:
Available data show that gold holdings comprise no more than
1-2% of investor portfolios. Stocks, bonds, and other assets comprise the other
98%. But unlike financial assets, which can be issued theoretically ad
infinitum, the supply of gold is essentially fixed, growing at about 1% per
year, much of which is absorbed into jewellery production. Therefore, the only realistic way for portfolios to shift
towards the efficient frontier derived above is for the price of gold to rise
versus that of financial assets generally.
Chart 3:
Gold Percentage of Global Financial Assets
See Chart:
Supply of Gold is
Inelastic, While Demand Can Fluctuate
Chart 4:
Supply of Gold is Inelastic, While Demand Can Fluctuate
See Chart:
I consider $15,000
gold and flat stocks+bonds to be a more realistic scenario than $1,500 gold and
the SPX back under 2,000. Most realistic of all could
be that bonds remain stable, stocks continue to at least keep pace with
inflation, and gold outperforms over time.
….
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Very bad news: IBM start falling down
IBM has been Slack's largest customer for several years and has expanded its usage of Slack over that
time. Slack is not updating its
financial guidance...
And the share are plunging back to
earth in the after hours...
See Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/slack-shares-crash-after-hours-following-ibm-no-news-update
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Econ is falling down.. Is Morgan Stanley demanding more QEs
& Bail Outs?
Once upon a
time, about ten years ago, we used to joke that either World War IIIor the apocalypse would be sufficient
to send the S&P limit up.... Now, it is no longer a joke.
Wilson writes that
the S&P 500 is often viewed as a safe haven itself because of its high
quality defensive growth characteristics: "In short, it is the appropriate asset to own if rates
continue to fall so long as we don't have a recession." As a
result, whenever 400bps on the equity risk premium is breached to the upside, there has been a strong bid, as Wilson shows in the chart
below. And indeed, two Fridays ago, when the markets had their big one
day sell off,"the Equity Risk Premium reached 402bps which attracted
capital like a magnet."
See chart:
The take home message: once
upon a time, about ten years ago, we used to joke that either World War III or
the apocalypse would be sufficient to send the S&P limit up. Now, after almost $20 trillion in liquidity injections by
central banks and monetary intervention any time there is even a 5% drop
in stocks, it is no longer a joke.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
GEORGE CARLIN
- THE PROPHET MUST READ!
“What do they want?” he asked.
“MORE FOR THEMSELVES AND LESS FOR EVERYBODY
ELSE.”
====
Lo que no
les conviene hay que destruirlo. Do we have to destroy TT entire
Gabinete?
Sanders and Trump are just symbols,of course, lightning rods for
'populist' anger... but they are symbols
the empire needs to destroy in order to reestablish 'normality'...
….
FRAUD was never ‘acepted as NORMALITY”. It
WON’T BE IN THE FUTURE!
====
Clinton Found: the most deplorable-corrupted-mafia need the
be put in Court
Over the
course of the last few months Doyle and Moynihan have been in the midst of an
extensive array of motions and responses, many filed under seal, going back and
forth with IRS Counsel in the course of their having their day in the US Tax
Court vs the Internal Revenue Service
====
WW3 is coming & talk on
‘Perfect Storm’ is a bad-grotesque Irony
No matter how chaotic
things get, your ability to navigate that chaos skillfully needs to be
your first and foremost priority. Put
your mental well-being first, and everything else will fall into place...
====
"Leveraged credits are in an early similar situation to what was surfacing out of the subprime mortgage
market back in 2007..."
This is the Chinese
Year of the Rat. Last year was the Year of the Pig, and there was a whole
cosmetics bag of lipstick that was applied, primarily by central bankers. There is just too much air underneath equity valuations and
there is no room for credit spreads to tighten any further. The world’s
economic and financial problems have been papered over
by even more debt and we now have hit leverage ratios that look to be highly unstable
and unsustainable.
In 2020, I smell a
rat. The central bank liquidity taps are likely to be turned on
even more, but the impact at current valuation levels across the various risk
asset classes will be far more muted now than was the case a year ago. And there is always the prospect that the monetary
authorities will stay on the sidelines and await a budgetary tax cut or
government spending response, which itself is futile given that fiscal policy
in most countries is just as tapped out as monetary policy.
There are no
easy solutions and it is doubtful that we will have another year
where central banks can transform the weakest period for global economic growth
in a decade and pull another rabbit out of the hat in
terms of massive excess returns for equity and corporate bond investors.
….
[[ Interesting .. only 1
missed point: didn’t pull out a rabbit from the hat, but a RAT ]]
AND CUIDADO: la mano del fascism intento
desfigurar el contenido de este articulo
….
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
The fall down of the worse war -criminal of our time Netanyahu is close
Likud to
the Iowa DNC: "hold my beer."
….
All bad actions of rulers always
create a double reaction among the oppressed. Alan Garcia el genocida de Peru que asesino
presos políticos con absoluta perversidad.
Fue condenada a cárcel por la Corte Suprema
y el muy cobarde se suicidó.. se llevó la vergüenza al infierno. La
suerte de Netanyahu está escrita. Si no es una corte quien lo sentencie, una de
sus víctimas le dará fin. Sin pena ni
gloria se ira de este mundo como F Franco. Así mueren los adictos al crimen.
====
Can RU correct the mistake of given to Turks weapons?
The massive
buildup over the weekend in retaliation for five killed Turkish soldiers,
included the deployment of howitzers, multiple-rocket launchers, ambulances and
trucks loaded with munitions, Anadolu reported.
….
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n
GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal
expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Trump Says Wants to Create World's Strongest
Nuclear Force para tus nietos?
- 'No
Charter Flights!': Demonstrators Denounce 'Racist' Deportations, Block Traffic
Outside Number 10
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
ALAI ORG
====
RT
EN ESPAÑOL
"Es hora de confiar en nosotros mismos":
Duterte pide la retirada de los militares de US https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/342699-duterte-ordena-poner-fin-acuerdo
Rusos repelen dos ataques con drones contra la base
aérea de Jmeimim en Siria https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/342672-sistema-antiaereo-repeler-ataques-drones-base-aerea-siria
Protestan en VEN por las sanciones USA contra la aerolínea estatal Conviasa https://actualidad.rt.com/video/342676-manifestantes-venezuela-sanciones-aerolinea-estatal-conviasa
La polémica del caucus de Iowa nubla las primarias
de Nuevo Hampshire https://actualidad.rt.com/video/342622-polemica-caucus-iowa-nublar-primarias
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the
US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-Israel Just Admitted Arming Syrian "terroriss"
By Daniel J. Levy
- US use a False Pretext for Its Recent Escalation in
Iraq? By Helena Cobban
- China, Russia to Defy
US Sanctions to Venezuela By teleSUR
- The siren call for a
‘system leader’ By Pepe Escobar
- We the People vs. US
Elites By Finian Cunningham
- The Game is Rigged By Paul Street
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis
on US Politics & Geopolitics
Thomas Klikauer Climate
Manipulation and Murdoch’s PR Machine
Conn Hallinan Turkey’s
Latest Quagmire: Intervention in Libya
Norman Solomon DNC
in Disarray While the Sanders Campaign Gains Momentum
Graham Peebles Systemic
Cruelty
Mel Gurtov Donald
Trump’s Fantasy World
----
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
Israel
Charged with War Crimes and Genocide. Complete 2013 Judgment of the Kuala
Lumpur Tribunal By
Kuala
Lumpur War Crimes Tribunal,
It’s
No Big Deal that There Are Some Limits to Russia-Israel “Cooperation” in Syria
By Andrew Korybko
Iowa:
Where The Democrats’ DNC Dreams Go to Die. Bernie, The “Trumpian Front Runner” By Brett Redmayne
----
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
-“Our
Very Existence Is the Resistance”: An Hour w/ AOC, Ayanna Pressley, Rashida
Tlaib & Ilhan Omar
----
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ASIAN NEWS
Press TV
- Iran, Sweden reject politicization of Ukraine plane crash
- Situation in Wuhan 'very grave': China president
- 'Trump to fire more officials after impeachment'
- Trump travel restrictions unconstitutional: NY suit
- ‘Trump’s new plan for Mideast only serves Israel’s interests’
- 9 homicides in Chicago's deadliest weekend of yea: Police
- Prince Andrew pushed further to the margins
- Trump effigies hanged prior to PMU cmdr. memorial
- India jails top Kashmir politician for ‘provoking general masses’
- Iran unveils new missile with composite engine block
- Israeli interrogators ‘brutally tortured’ Palestinians: Report
- ‘Iran missile attack shattered US’ self-proclaimed empire’
- Report: US arranging MBS-Netanyahu meeting in Cairo
- US to exempt Iraq again from sanctions on Iran: Officials
- Sudan reconsidering role in Saudi war on Yemen
- Turkey says 5 soldiers killed as Syrian army advances in Idlib
- ‘Trump’s new plan for Mideast only serves Israel’s interests’
- PROGRAMS
- US killer drones
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