ND
FEB 11 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
This is ECONOMIC MADNESS !
Today saw Fed Chair Powell offer nothing uber-dovish to
ignite momentum during his annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, Boeing's first
Zero orders January since 1962, the worst drop in job openings... ever, and the
FTX launching a probe into the mega-tech MAGA stocks. And stocks still never really gave a shit...
S&P and Nasdaq at new record high, Dow unch.
See Chart:
Spot the odd market out...
See Chart:
China went nowhere overnight...
though still up, no minus zero
See Chart:
In the US MAGA stocks rolled over
notably after the FTC headlines (this is the first drop in the last 8 days)...
See Chart:
FANG Stocks
“Most Shorted” Stocks went down
See Chart:
VIX continues to refuse to play
along with stocks... al VIX no le importa la suerte d Stoc
See Chart:
Treasury yields rose – its illiquidly - 1-2bps across the curve, lifting
rates back top unch on the week...
See Chart:
The yield curve un-inverted...
down.. barely...
See Chart:
The B-Dollar drifted lower for the
first time in 5 days...
See Chart:
WTI Crude hardly looked positive
despite a green day for a change (ahead of tonight's API data), falling back
below $50...
See Chart:
Finally, the Y2K analog continues to
hold for Nasdaq as the end of The Fed's emergency liquidity supply looms...
See Chart:
Different this time though for sure!
The gap between liquidity and stocks
is getting wide again...
See Chart:
S&P vs. Global Liquidity Proxy
Or maybe stocks are still rallying
on past impeachment ...
See Chart:
[ THE author is not expert in correlating Economic vs
Political variabes]
….
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The third
weekly crude build in a row won't help the bull case...
WTI hovered around $50 the figure ahead of the API print but slid below after the data...
See Chart:
Brent crude for April settlement rose 74 cents to
settle as $54.01 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London, putting its premium over WTI at $3.84, the smallest spread
between the two contracts since early 2018.
See Chart
….
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"Mortgage
originations, including refinances, increased significantly in the final
quarter of 2019, with auto loan originations also remaining at the brisk pace
seen throughout the year."
This was the single
biggest monthly increase in household debt since before the financial crisis.
See Chart:
Total Debt Balance & its composition
"Mortgage originations, including refinances, increased
significantly in the final quarter of 2019, with auto loan originations also
remaining at the brisk pace seen throughout the year," said Wilbert Van
Der Klaauw, senior vice president at the New York Fed. “The data also show that transitions into delinquency among credit card
borrowers have steadily risen since 2016, notably among younger borrowers.”
Mortgage originations jumped to the highest volume seen
since Q4 2005, rising to $752 billion in the fourth quarter from $528 billion
in Q3 2019, due to a large increase in refinance activities. Among newly originating mortgage borrowers, the median credit
score stood at 770, a 5-point increase from the Q3 2019, reflecting higher
share of refinances.
See Chart:
Mortgages Originators by Credit
Score
And yet despite near all time low rates, there was one
especially troubling trend: credit
card delinquencies rose to 8.36% an 18-month high, while auto loan
delinquencies approached all time highs.
See Chart:
Percent of Balance 90+ Days
delinquent by Loab Type
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/delinquent%20balances%20q4%202019.jpg?itok=xnOwecc0
Far more troubling, about half of student loans are currently in
deferment, in grace periods or in forbearance and therefore temporarily not in
the repayment cycle. Once these loans enter that cycle, delinquency
rates are projected to be
roughly twice as high, according to the Fed report, but
for now everyone is pretending that the US does not have a student loan crisis.
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"You are invested in asset prices artificially
disconnected from fundamental reality.."
Every once
in a while the truth shines through and we got a few doses of it today. Recently critics who suggested that the Fed’s
QE policies artificially elevate asset prices were dismissed as QE
conspiracists, but the truth is that central bank
policies are directly responsible for the asset price levitations since early
2019 and well before then of course as well.
All of this was
revealed to be hogwash last year when asset prices soared to new record highs
on flat to negative earnings growth and this farce continues to this day as the
coronavirus is the new trigger for reductions in growth estimates yet asset prices continue to ascent to record highs following
the Fed’s record liquidity injections:
See Chart:
THE FED’S greatest liquidity boost ever? See Liquidity Index
But now the truth is
officially out and can no longer be denied.
Here’s new ECB
president Largarde stating it plainly:
"European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said her
institution’s loose monetary policy is hitting savers and stoking asset
prices" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-11/lagarde-says-ecb-low-rate-side-effects-puts-onus-on-governments?sref=q1j4E2z1 …
Even President Trump
implicitly lays it all out as he’s apparently watching every tick on the $DJIA:
In his eyes: The Fed’s job is to goose the stock market for political
purposes which he needs to have done to win re-election. It’s part of the tick
box.
And don’t think that
this is not exactly how we views the Fed’s role. He already told you before.
Using market prices
as a political tool is in my view of course the antithesis of capitalism and free markets. It’s reckless, it distorts
everything and of course makes a mockery of price discovery and the recent jam
rally to new highs in the face of deteriorating conditions has been such a
farce it makes some wonder out aloud if there’s even more to it than just the
Fed.
And it is exactly
the result. A massive asset bubble disconnected from
fundamentals. Central bank intervention exacerbating wealth inequality ever
further:
See Chart:
Richest
Americans account for more than half of household equity wealth
Where this
all end? We can’t know, but someone already told you it won’t end well:
The Fed's reckless monetary policies will cause
problems in the years to come. The Fed has to be reined in or we will soon be
Greece.
When he’s
right he’s right. And now the truth is out and can no longer be denied. So
investors beware: You are invested in asset prices artificially
disconnected from fundamental reality. A market bubble. Choose wisely.
….
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...central banks are pushing
the accelerator looking at the rearview mirror and screaming “go
faster, we have not crashed yet!”...
The first problem
with governments’ calculation of inflation is that it massively misrepresents
some important factors. Housing is not
reflecting either real rental prices or actual mortgage payments, healthcare
and education weigh only 8.5% and 6.5% respectively on CPI but are two of the
largest expenditures of an average family. It is not a surprise that
protests against the rising cost of living are spreading all over the world while central banks say there is no inflation. The recent case in China is also symptomatic. China
CPI came at 5.4% but pork prices rose 116% while vegetables soared 17% and
transport-related fuel price inflation increased 7.2 percent year on year.
Why should
investors and economists care about stagflation risks?Because central banks have no tool to combat
it, and fiscal policies do not help. One can argue that central
banks have no tool to combat economic cycles, but no one can disagree that stagflation cannot be solved with money printing, low rates,
and government spending. Those measures exacerbate the issue.
No government or central bank will admit that
rising inflation in essential goods is a direct consequence of financial and
fiscal repression, and economic history always shows us that their reaction to
rising discontent will be more financial repression and economic intervention.
We need to monitor these changes in patterns of inflation
and growth as it is happening in more economies every year.
With the
global supply chain significantly impacted by the epidemic in China and the
estimates of global growth significantly downgrades, stagflation is a word most
economists and policymakers do not want to mention, but one that may become a
real risk in very little time.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
With this logic: all Chinese Comp Spies
For Beijing & US Corp for our big Billionaires
"We have evidence that Huawei has the capability secretly to access sensitive and personal information in
systems it maintains and sells around the world..."
….
Why trade-deals with China? We depend on them & they don’t depend
on us.
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"Gotta
read the footnotes..."
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"...completely cynical..."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"An hour ago, this Mi-17 utility helicopter of #Syria Arab Air Force was shot-down over
Al-Nayrab..."
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“It has the potential to create a dangerous situation in space...”
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
ALAI ORG
RT
EN ESPAÑOL
Trump: "El brote coronavirus tendría impacto en
'fase 1' del acuerdo comercial entre US- China" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/342790-asesor-trump-brote-coronavirus-impacto-fase-uno-acuerdo-comercial-eeuu-china
Bernie Sanders lidera entre los precandidatos
demócratas en las primarias de Nuevo Hampshire https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/342797-bernie-sanders-liderar-precandidatos-democratas
Sacerdote del US "La pedofilia no mata a nadie,
el aborto sí" La pedofilia es horrendo abuso contra niños y niñas https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/342759-sacerdote-eeuu-pedofilia-matar-nadie-aborto Y si lo practican los curas merecen la pena
capital
Diputados de España aprueba la ley de eutanasia por
amplia mayoría https://actualidad.rt.com/video/342785-congreso-diputados-espana-ley-eutanasia
Buenos Aires se desata en protestas en vísperas de
las negociaciones de la deuda con el FMI https://actualidad.rt.com/video/342784-buenos-aires-desata-protestas-negociaciones-deuda
El déficit comercial de EE.UU. con China es lo que
mantiene al dólar como divisa de reserva mundial https://actualidad.rt.com/programas/keiser_report/342725-deficit-comercial-salarios-bajos
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Richard Wolff Capitalism’s
Political Servants: Trump and Johnson
George Wuerthner The
War on Wolves is Part of the Culture War
Ellen Brown Mexico’s
AMLO Shows How It’s Done
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- Despite
Corporate Media’s “War on Bernie,” Sanders Rides Wave of Support into New
Hampshire Primary
- Trump’s New
Budget Funds Endless War & Nuclear Weapons While Slashing Aid to Poor &
Hungry Americans
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ASIAN NEWS
Press TV
Ireland: The
rise of Sinn Fein
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