domingo, 23 de febrero de 2020

ND FEB 23 SIT EC y POL



ND  FEB  23  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


If we slide below 1.40% in the 10Y, it will be a whoooooosh lower as the recession and ZLB are priced in.

Chart 1 shows that within a 12-month window prior to each of the last 3 recessions, the probability exceeded 30%. If we look at all 8 recessions since 1960, we find that the critical 30% threshold remains relevant back to 1969(7 recessions), but provided a false positive in 1967 and was not reached in the 1960 recession.
See Chart:

Yet while a 30% recession probability is still a gray zone, once the NY Fed's indicator reached a level of 40% it has not provided any historical false positives.
Why is this notable? Because in the Fed's framework, the 40% level corresponds to a slope of -45bp between 3m bills and the 10y rate.

What does all this mean for the 10Year Treasury as a recessionary signal?
According to BofA, recent mini-cycle troughs have coincided with bottoms on 10y Treasury yields around 1.4% (as shown in chart 3 below for The Conference Board Leading Indicators and 10yT yields since the great recession).
See Charts:
Focus on Chart 3: In recent mini-cycles Fed Funds have coincided with bottoms of 10Y T Yields around 1.4%

This means that breaking 1.4% in an on-hold context for the Fed creates a significant inversion of the curve, pushes recession signals higher, and pressures a further inversion of the FF1/FF6 spread which we found in Pricing cuts ahead of the Fed to have no false positives for Fed cuts following a -30bp inversion (currently -16bp).
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...traders are back to their desks and for once, it appears they're realizing thatcentral bankers can't print their way out of this particular pandemic mess...

After a weekend in which attention is now firmly focused on the accelerating spread of the coronavirus outside of China (whose epidemic numbers have become a bigger joke than the country's GDP), with Italy now a super cluster of new cases that has sealed off Northern Italy and threatens to shut down Schengen...
See Chart:
Total confirmed cases In JA, IT, Iran, S-Korea & on the diamond prices cruise ship

...traders are back to their desks and for once, it appears they are realizing that central bankers can't print their way out of this particular pandemic mess.

US equity futures are accelerating their catch down to reality...
See Chart:
Nasdaq & Offshore Yuan

Dow Futures are down 400 points...
See Chart:

WTI Crude is also plunging, back to a $51 handle...
See Chart:

And therefore, as always, The BoJ is out with its standard boiler-plate  - we'll puke more money and buy more of everything - plan...

The Bank of Japan will be fully prepared to take necessary action to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus on the world’s third-largest economy, its Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said. Kuroda said there was no major change to the BOJ’s projection that Japan’s economy would keep recovering moderately thanks to an expected rebound in global growth around mid-year.
He also repeated the view that, while the central bank stands ready to ease monetary policy further “without hesitation”, it saw no immediate need to act.

But Kuroda said the BOJ would scrutinize developments on the virus outbreak carefully, since the damage to Japan’s economy could be profound if the epidemic is prolonged and disrupts supply chains.

First of all, just how is printing money going to fix the virus; and secondwhat is this "moderate recovery" he is talking about after the -1.6% GDP print?!
See Chart:

Finally, we do note that Japan is closed for the Emperor's Birthday celebration so markets are especially illiquid... and cash bond trading remains closed. However, 10Y bond futures are surging, implying a  1.41% yield...
See Chart:
10Y UST future  & 10Y UST YIELD DOWN 

Nevertheless, it appears, as we noted above, investors are starting to wake up to the fact that central bankers can't print vaccines... and you can only swallow so many blue pills before the red one becomes too tempting.
Time for the phone call?
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US opinion:  China Economy dies in 3 months  (??).  Does the US is planing to bomb them?

"This is the most difficult time I have ever experienced"
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No creo lo que se dice in US on China.. Si creo que el pez muere por su boca.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


Already progressives and the media are making excuses for Trump’s re-election...
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As long as more people abandon Trump for Elec .. he is more prone to WW3
"During the exercise, we simulated responding with a nuclear weapon." 
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Are you afraid of WW3?.. is what they want to control you mind. Take streets Agt ww3
"...accidentally revealed the first images..."
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Still short comparing the power of RU.. Does T need more money for war.. Just printed & then see the results in our ECON and the reaction of our Nation
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So far: Trump is losing support of young people: College campus & Millennial
The true tragedy is that so many Americans are blind to the fact that today's colleges and universities pose a threat on several fronts to the well-being of our nation...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo



By reassuring and almost encouraging the people of Syria to rise up and overthrow their brutal leader, Obama started a series of events that has taken countless lives and destroyed millions of others...
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Pumping liquidity and cut rates is irresponsible..

These are risks that we need to consider. Ignoring them just because central banks will continue to pump liquidity and cut rates is irresponsible...
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Scandalous LIES on China:
Just the latest piece of evidence...
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50 Times enlarged in US & West-satellites press. Does this will destroy Chinese Econ? Of course NO. But the intention to destroyed by other means remain.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

RT EN ESPAÑOL

La defensa antiaérea de Damasco intercepta misiles israelíes   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/343878-videos-defensa-antiaerea-damasco-misiles
Carrera preelectoral dem en US: críticas a Bloomberg, liderazgo de Sanders y acusac contra Rusia https://actualidad.rt.com/video/343854-carrera-preelectoral-democrata-eeuu-sanders-bloomberg
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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ASIAN NEWS
Press TV

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