miércoles, 26 de febrero de 2020

ND FEB 26 SIT EC y POL



ND  FEB  26  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


NY Gov Cuomo summed things up best today "no need for undue fear..."which we suggest is the same theme that President Trump will proclaim at 6pmET

And sure enough, the overnight exuberance in futures and opening BTFD efforts, failed dramatically as more US cases were reported in Nassau County and NY Gov Cuomo spoke...Dow futs rallied 800 points from overnight lows to the highs at around 1100ET before falling hard...
See Chart:

As we noted earlier, this all fits with comments from the infamous Dennis Gartman, who last year ended his daily newsletter after three decades, who appears to be right in his retirement. Equities are “egregiously” over-valued relative to measures such as sales, profits and the size of the economy. The spread of the coronavirus is threatening global growth, and investors should buy safety assets such as gold and government bonds, he said.
“I’m afraid rallies are to be sold into, not weakness to be bought,” Gartman said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio with John Tucker.
 “I’m amused or dismayed at how many people are still willing to buy the dip, and this dip is far more serious than people want to anticipate at this point.”

Gartman's view echoes that of Mohamed El-Erian, who wrote on Tuesday thatthe virus-induced sell-off “isn’t a buy-the-dip opportunity” because there’s little evidence right now supporting the notion of a V-shaped recovery.
It would appear that bond yields, oil prices, and gold safe-haven flows agree..
See Chart:

China remains the outperformer, despite its being the 1st victim of the virus impact...
See Chart:

So much for month-end rebalancing flows...
Nasdaq clung to the green today but the rest of the markets gave up their BTFD gains...
See Chart:

SPY (the largest most liquid S&P ETF), saw huge outflows this week - the biggest since the start of the carnage in October 2018...
See Chart:

The Dow, Russell 2000, and Trannies broke below their 200DMA; S&P held below its 100DMA and Nasdaq held below its 50DMA...
See Charts:

Bank stocks extended their losses...
See Chart:

Amid all this carnage, momentum continues to charge higher...
See Chart:

Cash and derivative credit markets continued to worsen...
See Chart:

Treasury yields tumbled further today...
See Chart:

30Y crashed to a 1.79 handle and 10Y a 1.19 handle...
See Chart:

The yield curve remains drastically inverted...
See Chart:

The market is now demanding almost 3 rate-cuts in 2020...
See Chart:

The B-dollar managed modest gains today...
See Chart:

Commodities were mixed with gold gaining modestly as oil plunged...
See Chart:

Finally, if the Y2K analog holds, we have further to fall before there is a meaningful rebound.. that will fail...
See Chart:

Notably, many talking heads are trying to blame some of the drop on the rise of Bernie Sanders as a virus-infected US economy may increase his chance of being elected... Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO and Wall Street “bond king,”is pointing the finger at Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders for the market’s tumultuous rout this week.

“If this stock market reversal is due exclusively to the virus, then why is United Healthcare down far more than SPX?” Gundlach wrote in an email to CNBC’s Scott Wapner, referring to the S&P 500.
“Why is healthcare as a sector broadly not outperforming? Answer to these questions: the market is digesting a better than 50% chance of Bernie getting the nomination.”
“Maybe this is the dark side of momentum investing (which is exactly what defines ‘passive’),” Gundlach wrote.
“The market goes down in a knee jerk way on the Bernie rise, but the market going down makes Bernie’s polls go up on his rejection of a market based economy. Which makes the market go down another leg. Rinse and repeat.”
….
----
----


the situation is suggestive of global macro hedge funds and long/short funds turning to trades that prepare for a global recession

What has emerged is yet another great Wall Street debate, with some, such as JPMorgan, claiming the selling was mostly systematic (i.e., algos and model quants), while others such as Nomura, confident that the recent bout of selling is largely man-made, i.e., discretionary hedge funds unwinding.

Starting with the former, in his latest note, JPMorgan's head quant, who last week doubled down a trade that turned out to be catastrophic for those who put it on when he first recommended it last summer as a "once in a decade opportunity" (to lose money perhaps) namely buying value stocks over low-vol/growth, and which led to unprecedented losses for anyone who held on to this trade for the past 6 months...

See Charts:
Fig 1 The valuation spread bet value & low volatility  is 2x larger than during tech value
Fig 2 Ratio of tech to energy & single stock call option value

See Charts

The publication date coincided with all-time highs on the Nasdaq, and over the next 2 trading sessions momentum, growth and tech stocks sold off significantly." What he failed to mention is the absolute murder unleashed across his favorite "value" stocks, where some iconic names such as Exxon have cratered to a 15 year lows, its  dividend yield approaching a record 7% (!).
See Chart:

But while the jury is still out on whether this time Kolanovic will be right on the great rotation out of low-vol/momentum/growth into value, the JPM quant focuses squarely on what he believes sparked this week's near record selling. Echoing what we said earlier in the week, the Croat says, "in addition to broad risk-off sentiment from the virus, significant drivers of price action was selling from systematic strategies and option hedgers." Laying out the various classes of investors, Kolanovic identifies:
  • Option hedging (gamma) which likely resulted in $40-50Bn of outflows,
  • CTAs ~$40-60Bn selling,
  • volatility targeting strategies ~$40-60Bn of selling.

At the same time, overall liquidity, or market depth dropped by over 50%, and confirming what has been obvious to everyone, Kolanovic observes that "this total selling of ~$150Bn produced a large market impact."

It will hardly come as a surprise that not everyone agrees. In fact, in a note from Nomura's, Masanari Takada, the Japanese quant reaches the opposite conclusion, writing that "equity long/short funds and global macro hedge funds unloading long equity positions, CTAs may have been late to move for the exit."

Contradicting Kolanovic, Takada writes that "it is looking very likely that the main culprits in panic selling of DM equities were fundamentals-focused hedge funds, as we had originally posited. Recently equity exposure for hedge funds overall has plummeted, with the main driver being equity long/short funds and global macro hedge funds unloading long equity positions."
See Chart:
Overall hedge funds’ net exposure to DM Equities (30 days beta)

The reason for this is that while discretionary investors had been picturing a V-shaped recovery in the global economy and corporate earnings, when confronted with the surge in COVID-19 infections, "many are now being forced to drastically change their strategies." And while the selling could be an overreaction, the situation is suggestive of global macro hedge funds and long/short funds turning to trades that prepare for a global recession.

See Charts:
Fig 2: Global macro hedge fund & long short funds’ DM equity exposure
Fig 3: Major Hedge fund’ net exposure to DM equities (estimate by Nomura)

See Charts:

Meanwhile, the Nomura quant argues that systematic traders (CTAs and risk-parity funds) are simply chasing the fundamentals-oriented funds and reducing their long positions in equities, and makes the point "that CTAs were late to head for the exit suggests that the latest sell-off was not necessarily driven by systematic trading", contradicting what Kolanovic said.
See Charts:

See more charts and debate at:
….
----
----

ANY bad thing is done by C-Virus. Be careful with Hillary’ stinky farts, it contain C-V

After trying hard to ignore the deadliest global pandemic in decades, and pretending it would have no impact on future sales or demand, US corporations are starting to fall like viral dominoes, with one after another slashing guidance.
….
Don’t allow her inside DEMs meetings.. the money of this pedo also has C-V
….
The news on C-V sent Microsoft stock lower after hours...
See Chart:
….
----
----

US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


The corrupted elections  done by billionaires:

Rampant speculation that billionaire Bloomberg "purchased" a portion of the crowd to create the appearance of a strong performance.
====

"We do expect more cases and this is a good time to prepare..."
====

We Want the US electoral system be selected by all Presid  candidates not by State Ap

Trump’s ongoing purge of the intel community, along with Bernie’s surge in the Dem presidential race, has triggered an unprecedented intervention of U.S. intelligence agencies in the U.S. election on factually dubious grounds.
====

Yesterday we publish the difference bet total cases existent & 300% of prob solved

"[Beijing] is trying to create an image that most of the country is safe enough to resume production..."
….
Yesterday data explains why China decided to resume production: C-V is under control.  This pandemic won’t put China Econ down, as US expected.
==== 

Who is paying the price? Those who create it, of/c. The panic they create is a Pendulum

Roughly forty years ago we and the Chinese entered into a true Faustian bargain... As with all pacts with the devilthe bill has come due, this time in the form of the coronavirus...
….
The Pendulum of Allan Poe will be on our head and kill our Econ before we die. We depend on trade with China, they don’t depend on as. If we survive this evilness.. WW3 will be the one that will exterminate our Econ and our Nation. Check what we did: create fear & fear will destroy our spirit to solve any Prob.
====

JA has the right to be neutral on US Geo-politics. Trump considered betray such neutral

"It's a big, big, big decision, and you just can't take it until you have reliable facts on which to base it." 
….
The correlation bet total infected vs. total cured (more than 300%  diff in favor of cured) indicates that corona virus is under control, so there is not point in canceling the JA olympics. The story-tell that we must avoid mass meetings in order to avoid corona virus, contradict the FACT that US stadiums are full for futbol & other US sports even in CA. The corona-virus is used as false-flag to control mass-demonst against the Govt (specially socialists).  Will US cancel elections before Trump be beat by Sanders in elections 2020?. I don’t think so, but is possible.  The press-titude said that 300 cases of corona virus has been detected in CA  (the anti-Trump State), so NOW the US has the chance to used the antidote to the virus they create. Corona virus should not be used  for political retaliation as they plan to used in JA to cancel Olympics.  
====


Are you an anxious kleptocrat worried about whether a coronavirus outbreak might undermine your regime's grip on power? Give McKinsey a call!
====

FASCISM in EDUCATION:

The state establishes the curriculum and determines which textbooks are to be used. The entire operation is run in a top-down, command-and-control manner, much like the military...
….
This is not socialism, THIS IS FASCIM
====


US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


Perfectly natural... in our evil tech & scientism: 1st WMD & 2nd Corona virus
….
The 3rd will be horrible:  WW3, and it is possible too
====


...the black swan is not the emergence of a pandemic, but the second and third order effects the virus could have on global politics and trade...
====


SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

- Qatar Evacuating Qatari, Kuwaiti Citizens From Iran Due to Coronavirus Outbreak Al parecer está cerca el ataque US a Iran (por eso huyen). Espero RU-Chi apoyen a Iran
----
----

NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
NADA NUEVO

ALAI ORG

====

RT EN ESPAÑOL

ONU pide a Colombia " profunda transformación" de la policía antidisturbios https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344232-onu-llamar-colombia-profunda-transformacion-esmad
Erdogan: "No daremos el más mínimo paso atrás en Idlib"  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344156-erdogan-no-dar-paso-atras-idlib
"Con la derecha dividida en Bolivia, la fortaleza electoral del MAS es el tiempo" https://actualidad.rt.com/video/344242-derecha-dividida-bolivia-fortaleza-mas-tiempo
----
----


INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

- Musical Chairs in the White House  By Philip Giraldi
----
----


COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

----
----

GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

----
----

DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

----
----

No hay comentarios:

Publicar un comentario