ND
FEB 26 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
NY Gov
Cuomo summed things up best today "no need for undue fear..."which we suggest is the
same theme that President Trump will proclaim at 6pmET
And sure enough, the overnight exuberance in futures and
opening BTFD efforts, failed dramatically as more US cases were reported in
Nassau County and NY Gov Cuomo spoke...Dow futs rallied
800 points from overnight lows to the highs at around 1100ET before falling
hard...
See Chart:
As
we noted earlier, this all fits with comments from the infamous Dennis
Gartman, who last year ended his daily newsletter after three decades, who
appears to be right in his retirement. Equities are “egregiously” over-valued relative to measures such as
sales, profits and the size of the economy. The
spread of the coronavirus is threatening global growth, and investors should
buy safety assets such as gold and government bonds, he said.
“I’m afraid rallies are to be sold into, not
weakness to be bought,” Gartman said in an interview on Bloomberg
Radio with John Tucker.
“I’m amused or dismayed at how many
people are still willing to buy the dip, and this dip is far more serious than
people want to anticipate at this point.”
Gartman's view echoes that of Mohamed
El-Erian, who wrote on Tuesday thatthe virus-induced sell-off “isn’t a buy-the-dip opportunity” because
there’s little evidence right now supporting the notion of a V-shaped recovery.
It would appear that bond yields,
oil prices, and gold safe-haven flows agree..
See Chart:
China remains the outperformer,
despite its being the 1st victim of the virus impact...
See Chart:
So much for month-end rebalancing flows...
Nasdaq clung to the green today but
the rest of the markets gave up their BTFD gains...
See Chart:
SPY (the largest most liquid S&P ETF), saw huge outflows this week - the biggest since the start
of the carnage in October 2018...
See Chart:
The Dow, Russell 2000, and Trannies
broke below their 200DMA; S&P held below its 100DMA and Nasdaq held below
its 50DMA...
See Charts:
Bank stocks extended their losses...
See Chart:
Amid all this carnage, momentum
continues to charge higher...
See Chart:
Cash and derivative credit markets
continued to worsen...
See Chart:
Treasury yields tumbled further
today...
See Chart:
30Y crashed to a 1.79 handle and 10Y
a 1.19 handle...
See Chart:
The yield curve remains drastically
inverted...
See Chart:
The market is now demanding almost 3
rate-cuts in 2020...
See Chart:
The B-dollar managed modest gains
today...
See Chart:
Commodities were mixed with gold
gaining modestly as oil plunged...
See Chart:
Finally, if the Y2K analog holds, we
have further to fall before there is a meaningful rebound.. that will fail...
See Chart:
Notably, many talking heads are trying to blame some of the
drop on the rise of Bernie Sanders as a virus-infected US economy may increase
his chance of being elected... Jeffrey
Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO and Wall Street “bond king,”is pointing
the finger at Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders for the market’s
tumultuous rout this week.
“If this stock market reversal is due exclusively to the virus, then
why is United Healthcare down far more than SPX?” Gundlach wrote in an email to
CNBC’s Scott Wapner, referring to the S&P 500.
“Why is healthcare as a sector broadly not outperforming? Answer to
these questions: the
market is digesting a better than 50% chance of Bernie getting the nomination.”
“Maybe this is the dark side of momentum investing (which is exactly
what defines ‘passive’),” Gundlach wrote.
“The market goes down in a knee jerk way on
the Bernie rise, but the market going down makes Bernie’s polls go up on his
rejection of a market based economy. Which makes the market go down another
leg. Rinse and repeat.”
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dip-buyers-battered-stocks-bond-yields-oil-plunge-intraday
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the
situation is suggestive of global macro hedge funds and long/short funds
turning to trades that prepare for a global recession
What has emerged is yet another great Wall Street debate,
with some, such as JPMorgan, claiming the selling was mostly systematic (i.e.,
algos and model quants), while others such as Nomura,
confident that the recent bout of selling is largely man-made, i.e.,
discretionary hedge funds unwinding.
Starting with the former, in his latest note, JPMorgan's head quant, who last
week doubled down a trade that turned out to
be catastrophic for those who put it on when he first recommended it last summer
as a "once
in a decade opportunity" (to lose money perhaps) namely buying value stocks over low-vol/growth, and which led
to unprecedented losses for anyone who held on to this trade for the past 6
months...
See Charts:
Fig 1 The valuation spread
bet value & low volatility is 2x
larger than during tech value
Fig 2 Ratio of tech to energy
& single stock call option value
See Charts
The publication date coincided with all-time highs on the
Nasdaq, and over the next 2 trading sessions momentum, growth and tech stocks
sold off significantly." What he failed to mention
is the absolute murder unleashed across his
favorite "value" stocks, where some iconic names such as Exxon have
cratered to a 15 year lows, its dividend yield approaching a record 7%
(!).
See Chart:
But while the jury is still out on whether this time
Kolanovic will be right on the great rotation out of low-vol/momentum/growth
into value, the JPM quant focuses squarely on what he
believes sparked this week's near record selling. Echoing what we said
earlier in the week, the Croat says, "in addition
to broad risk-off sentiment from the virus, significant drivers of price action
was selling from systematic strategies and option hedgers." Laying
out the various classes of investors, Kolanovic
identifies:
- Option hedging (gamma) which likely resulted in $40-50Bn of outflows,
- CTAs ~$40-60Bn selling,
- volatility targeting strategies ~$40-60Bn of selling.
At the same time, overall liquidity,
or market depth dropped by over 50%, and confirming what has been
obvious to everyone, Kolanovic observes that "this
total selling of ~$150Bn produced a large market impact."
It will hardly come as a surprise that not everyone agrees. In fact, in
a note from Nomura's, Masanari Takada, the Japanese quant reaches the opposite
conclusion, writing that "equity long/short funds and global macro hedge funds unloading long
equity positions, CTAs may have been late to move for the exit."
Contradicting Kolanovic, Takada writes that "it is
looking very likely that the main culprits in panic selling of DM equities were
fundamentals-focused hedge funds, as we had originally posited. Recently equity exposure for hedge funds overall has
plummeted, with the main driver
being equity long/short funds and global macro hedge funds unloading long
equity positions."
See Chart:
Overall
hedge funds’ net exposure to DM Equities (30 days beta)
The reason for this is that while discretionary investors
had been picturing a V-shaped recovery in the global economy and corporate
earnings, when confronted with the surge in COVID-19 infections, "many are
now being forced to drastically change their strategies." And while the selling could be an overreaction, the situation is suggestive of global macro
hedge funds and long/short funds turning to trades that prepare for a global
recession.
See Charts:
Fig 2: Global macro hedge
fund & long short funds’ DM equity exposure
Fig 3: Major Hedge fund’ net
exposure to DM equities (estimate by Nomura)
See Charts:
Meanwhile, the Nomura quant argues that systematic traders
(CTAs and risk-parity funds) are simply chasing the fundamentals-oriented funds
and reducing their long positions in equities, and makes the point "that CTAs
were late to head for the exit suggests that the latest sell-off was not
necessarily driven by systematic trading", contradicting what
Kolanovic said.
See Charts:
See more charts and debate at:
….
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ANY bad thing is done by C-Virus. Be careful with Hillary’
stinky farts, it contain C-V
After
trying hard to ignore the deadliest global pandemic in decades, and pretending
it would have no impact on future sales or demand, US corporations are starting
to fall like viral dominoes, with one after another slashing guidance.
….
Don’t allow her inside DEMs
meetings.. the money of this pedo also has C-V
….
The news on C-V sent Microsoft stock
lower after hours...
See Chart:
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
The corrupted elections
done by billionaires:
Rampant speculation that billionaire
Bloomberg "purchased" a portion of the crowd to create the
appearance of a strong performance.
====
"We do
expect more cases and this is a good time to prepare..."
====
We Want the US electoral system be selected by all
Presid candidates not by State Ap
Trump’s ongoing purge of the intel community, along with Bernie’s surge
in the Dem presidential race, has triggered
an unprecedented intervention of U.S. intelligence agencies in the
U.S. election on factually dubious
grounds.
====
Yesterday we publish the difference bet total cases existent
& 300% of prob solved
"[Beijing] is trying
to create an image that most of the country is safe enough to
resume production..."
….
Yesterday data explains why China decided to resume production: C-V is
under control. This pandemic won’t put
China Econ down, as US expected.
====
Who is paying the
price? Those who create it, of/c. The panic they create is a Pendulum
Roughly forty years ago we and the Chinese entered into a
true Faustian bargain... As with all pacts with the devilthe bill has come due, this time in the form
of the coronavirus...
….
The Pendulum of Allan Poe will be on our head
and kill our Econ before we die. We depend on trade
with China, they don’t depend on as. If we survive this evilness.. WW3
will be the one that will exterminate our Econ and our Nation. Check what we
did: create fear & fear will destroy our spirit to solve any Prob.
====
JA has the right
to be neutral on US Geo-politics. Trump considered betray such neutral
"It's a big, big, big decision, and you
just can't take it until you have reliable facts on which to base
it."
….
The correlation bet total infected
vs. total cured (more than 300% diff in
favor of cured) indicates that corona virus is under control, so there is not
point in canceling the JA olympics. The story-tell that we must avoid mass
meetings in order to avoid corona virus, contradict the FACT that US stadiums
are full for futbol & other US sports even in CA. The corona-virus is used
as false-flag to control mass-demonst against the Govt (specially
socialists). Will US cancel elections
before Trump be beat by Sanders in elections 2020?. I don’t think so, but is
possible. The press-titude said that 300
cases of corona virus has been detected in CA
(the anti-Trump State), so NOW the US has the chance to used the
antidote to the virus they create. Corona virus should
not be used for political retaliation as
they plan to used in JA to cancel Olympics.
====
Are you an
anxious kleptocrat worried about whether a coronavirus outbreak might undermine
your regime's grip on power? Give McKinsey a call!
====
FASCISM in
EDUCATION:
The state establishes the
curriculum and determines which textbooks are to be used. The entire operation is run in a top-down,
command-and-control manner, much like the military...
….
This is not socialism, THIS IS FASCIM
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Perfectly
natural... in our evil tech & scientism: 1st WMD & 2nd
Corona virus
….
The 3rd will be
horrible: WW3, and it is possible too
====
...the black swan is not the emergence of a pandemic, but the second and third order effects the virus
could have on global politics and trade...
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Qatar Evacuating Qatari, Kuwaiti
Citizens From Iran Due to Coronavirus Outbreak Al parecer está cerca el ataque US a Iran (por
eso huyen). Espero RU-Chi apoyen a Iran
- Death
Toll From Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in Mainland China Rises to 2,744 from a
total of 78,497 cases This is the main reason for China to
say that C-V is under control.
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
NADA NUEVO
ALAI ORG
====
RT
EN ESPAÑOL
ONU pide a Colombia " profunda
transformación" de la policía antidisturbios https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344232-onu-llamar-colombia-profunda-transformacion-esmad
Erdogan: "No daremos el más mínimo paso atrás
en Idlib" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344156-erdogan-no-dar-paso-atras-idlib
Nespresso usa
trabajo infantil en Guatemala https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/344220-acusan-granjas-nespresso-trabajo-infantil-guatemala
"Con la derecha dividida en Bolivia, la
fortaleza electoral del MAS es el tiempo" https://actualidad.rt.com/video/344242-derecha-dividida-bolivia-fortaleza-mas-tiempo
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
-We should applaud the Syrian military’s
actions in Idlib, not deplore them
By Stephen Gowans
By Stephen Gowans
- Being Honest About U.S. Foreign Policy By Daniel Larison
- Musical Chairs in the White House By Philip Giraldi
- Democrats’ Quandary In a struggle between
oligarchy and democracy, something must give By Michael Hudson
- Assange extradition hearing - Day 2 By Craig Murray
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Jeremy Kuzmarov Anti-Russian
Xenophobia Reaches Ridiculous Levels
Scott Tucker Democratic
Socialism in the Twenty-First Century
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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