ND JAN 4 20
SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
CHECK HOW FAKE IS OUR ECONOMY:
What if
the Fed finds that it can’t step
back from repo operations due to fear of financial dislocations?
Every conceivable asset class
(except cash) posted positive returns ,thanks to the LIQUIDITY provided by
global central banks. The Fed, in my view, moved to implement the “
high pressure economy” regime outlined
in former chair Janet Yellen’s 2014 speech at the Boston Fed Reserve bank.
Indirecly this document suggest
the US central Bank has returned to the Greenspan approach to bubbles- they
will deal with the consequences once it pops.
The
chart below explains the LIQUIDITY
story.
See Chart:
Global
Central Banks Liquidity (at the bottom) vs.
Global Stocks (at top)
Gone are the good old days when Earnings used to be
tailwind for market valuations.
See Chart:
Wide divergence between S&P and Profits
The
polarising performance of US markets.
See Chart:
Biggest
contributors to S&P 500 Total Return
The two stocks, Apple and
Microsoft, each having a market cap of USD 1 trillion have contributed the most
to 2019’s total stock-market returns and also hold that position for the entire
decade.
The number of Zombie companies continue to rise
along with their market caps.
See Chart:
An Immaterial World
The above charts were examples of distortion created
by excess pumping of money.
Jerome Powell raised the bar for raising rates significantly
whereas the bar for lowering rates has gone down. More evidence that Central
Bankers will tolerate higher inflation and low or negative real rates.
BOFA has a crystal ball and they see the endgame
approaching .
The global economy has entered a period called ‘slowbalization,’ which is the result of geopolitical shifts and secular trends
that have slowed down globalization or, in some cases, completely
reversed it. A global manufacturing recession was
sparked by changes in consumer preferences that have roiled manufacturing hubs
and complex supply chains in developed and emerging markets. Almost
every major central bank across the world is easing at
the moment in hopes of generating a mini-cycle trough to rebound growth in 2020.
When markets run on nothing but multiple expansion the PEG ratio (price
earnings growth) may just skyrocket higher. In this case: Through the historic
roof. Don’t let anyone tell you this market is cheap.
It’s not, it’s the most expensive in our lifetimes on a PEG basis.
See Chart:
US M2 growth y-o-y which was growing at 3.2% in November 2018, is now
growing at 7.6% y-o-y. The economy is not growing
rapidly enough to absorb this growth and the competition from the money and
bond markets, domestically and overseas, is not compelling.
Money supply is expanding at above average rates and share growth is not.
Consequently, share values are expanding — not likely to stop soon.
Meanwhile 70% of Millennials say they are likely to VOTE SOCIALISTS
See Graph:
Winter is coming & the market outlook is this:
See Chart:
ICE BOFA US : High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spread
Finally, the Dollar index (DXY), which was in a rising trend for some time and was
supported by a strong US GDP growth is in the process of rolling over and
making lower highs and lower lows. Trump and Fed would be happy at this
achievement but who knows what a falling dollar bring with it.
Overall, these developments would appear to support some whiff of
reflation and higher inflationary expectations,
1).
Shift away from buying cash- burning market share to buying profits.
2).
Weaker dollar raises the prices of imports and create domestic pricing power.
What are the possibilities regarding a potential
“normalization of repo liquidity post-run? In the year 1999-2000 Fed had
similarly flooded the system with massive liquidity to tide over Y2K related
issues and when it went to withdraw that liquidity
there was sharp negative reaction by stock market. I guess we will see
the same towards the end of first quarter 2020. Emerging markets will be bid
till the time Dollar index is soft. In terms of bonds,
the prospect of less certain funding and higher deficits might also stifle some
enthusiasm. Commodities could outperform stocks as a class.
What if the Fed finds
that it can’t step back from repo operations due to fear of financial
dislocations? In this case, stocks could see a more aggressive “melt-up” helped
by tsunami of Fed liquidity, but the dollar will fall more, and GOLD will
benefit.
….
----
----
What could trip up the markets this January?
In a word,
"much."
See Chart:
Fear
& Greed Over Time
But it isn’t just sentiment
which has gotten extraordinarily extended, but also
investor positioning on many levels both individual and professional.
See Chart:
Market
Greed/ Fear GAUGE
See More Charts at:
….
----
----
"I
think a recession is not off the
table at all in 2020, and so there is no green light on that
score."
====
"...non-housing debt, slowing retail spending and rising severe delinquencies are
continuing concerns..."
====
...today’s money is not real money. Rather,
it is fake money. And this fake money has heinous implications on how people earn, save, invest, and pay
their way in the world we live in...
====
The collapse of an empire is a process, not an event... but danger signals abound... the plates are not spinning, they've already
dropped...
====
US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
STOP
LIES: the attack to Iran came from ISR
under Trump’order. Threats came from T.
"...those
52 targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants
no more threats!"
….
This 52 targets
are Trump threat to IRAN.. I
guess ISR + other NATO’s R part too
====
The Death of the West is not a
prediction of what is going to happen. It is a depiction of what is happening now. First World
nations are dying...
====
"...nothing
new about American terrorist
attacks against Black and Brown people...plundering of the non white
world."
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
----
----
NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
F-FEM: El
anti-machismo nada que ver con opresión clasista de la mujer.
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
-Londres envía dos buques de guerra al golfo Pérsico para
"proteger a sus barcos y ciudadanos"
https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/338841-reino-unido-escoltar-buques-estrecho-ormuz Hacia el genocidio
Irani por los matones del Imperio.
- General iraní insta al US a abandonar Oriente Medio
o "comprar ataúdes para sus soldados" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/338839-general-iran-instar-eeuu-abandonar-oriente-medio-comprar-ataudes-soldados
Con bla-bla no se gana la guerra
- Rusia y China acuerdan tomar medidas conjuntas para
asegurar la paz en Oriente Medio https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/338816-rusia-china-acordar-medidas-conjuntas-paz-oriente-medio
En la ONU? Denle a Irán nuke-misil de largo
alcance como los que se instaló en Cuba el 61. Entonces habrá un acuerdo de Paz.Corea-N
lo logro ya y pueden volarle la mitad del poder a NATO si el US los ataca. Hay que armar la PAZ. Si
RU y China no lo hacen con Irán, es sinónimo de traición. Eso les podría costar
muy caro pues el objetivo del US-UK y NATO + ISR y Saudis es destruir RU y
China. A eso apuntan.
- Comando iraní: "35 puestos vitales del US en
la región y Tel Aviv están al alcance de Irán" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/338797-comandante-irani-35-puestos-vitales-eeuu-israel-alcance
Tiene misiles, pero no nucleares. Esto si detiene
al imperio.
----
----
GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
----
====
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario