domingo, 12 de enero de 2020

ND JAN 12 20 SIT EC y POL



ND  JAN 12 20  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

Beside Middle East news at the end 
READ THIS

AND READ THIS:
Trump defense Secretary admits he didn’t see evidence about Soleimani planning attacks against US Embassies:  https://www.rt.com/usa/478078-trump-soleimani-esper-evidence 

AND THIS:
Iran Khamenei order immediate and full probe after Tehran armed-official admit they may accidentally shot down Ukraine plane. https://www.rt.com/newsline/478009-irans-khamenei-orders-iimmediate-probe.  His twitter account was temporarily BLOCKED and the entrance of  delegation from IRAN to UN site in NY was prohibited. 

Admitting that Iran may accidentally shot the Ukrainian plane was totally distorted and manipulated by big Press-Corp-media financed by the US-UK & Canada. The black boxes will say if an Iranian missile caused or not that un-intentional “accident”.

Meanwhile the phobia against Iran is instigated by Trump, the one who order to kill the Iranian Gral Soleimani.

TRUMP IS WASTING THE LIFE OF US SOLDIERS. Afghans said the 214 US soldiers died, in Iraq more than 80 died in the 1st round of missiles from Iran.

Trump has committed crimes against humanity (migrants) and worse war crimes that in Viet Nam just to plunder the oil in Syria, Iran, Libya & Venezuela. Millions has been condemned to abandon their houses & families.  

US wars abroad is not longer good business for our ‘investors’ and  Trump  doesn’t have a post-neoliberal agenda.

Trump is going to lose election and IF he wins it will be via fraud & buying votes. Trump won’t be able to keep democracy. His victory will be at the cost of FASCISM and that will divide & kill US Federal Union. There is not democratic future with Trump.

National-Referendums will defeat his fascism. He knew it and he also know that polls don’t favor him. He don’t deserve any trust. Trump fake ECON is in total collapse. The USD is dumped worldwide.

Asia is the tomb for the ugly dino. There is not specific tomb for him, nobody wants his ashes, winds will take it to hell.
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ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


During 2019, the net income concentration for the 1 percenters didn’t keep pace with their market cap concentration, similar to what happened during the 1999 concentration peak.

Markets understand this dynamic, which is why small caps have underperformed so significantly over the past 18 months and, quite frankly, over this entire cycle. But this phenomenon is manifesting itself in other ways. Capital concentration is following corporate inequality like never beforeCurrently, the top five companies in the S&P 500 (the other 1 percenters) make up 18% of the total market cap.
See Chart:
Share of top 5 Companies in the S&P 500

A ratio like this is unprecedented, including during the tech bubble.

I think this divergence is the result of the extraordinary liquidity being provided by the world’s central banks, which is flowing to the most liquid and largest names in the S&P 500. 
More importantly, if we’re right, these companies will then need to deliver on the income side of the inequality divide or risk a sharp decline in price.
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With the S&P 500 making record highs and the most overvalued in history, Goldman considers four macro risks to its 2020 outlook and their investment implications...

See Chart:
Valuations at all time highs

Investors are now all in the market, just as buybacks are rapidly fading.
See Chart:
Weekly Announced Buybacks:  S&P 500

BELOW, WE TAKE A DETAILED LOOK AT EACH OF THESE "BIGGEST RISKS":

1. What if there is a sustained period of conflict between the US and Iran and higher oil prices? 
See Chart:
Energy sector trades in line with long-dated oil prices

2. What if bond yields rise rapidly in 2020? Needless to say, near record low bond yields have been a boon to equity valuations, driving more than 90% of the S&P 500 return in 2019. Although valuations are elevated in absolute terms, Goldman's macro model suggests that equities trade at roughly fair value relative to the low level of bond yields:
See Chart:
Equities typically fall when rates rise by 2+ Std deviation in a month

3. What if the US dollar reverses course and strengthens in 2020?  Goldman's FX strategists expect the trade-weighted dollar to fall by another 2% during the next 12 months. Why? Because a stronger dollar would pose a headwind to S&P 500 sales, particularly within industries with high non-US sales such as semiconductors. 

4.  What if economic growth is weaker than expected?   Ironically, the muted outperformance of cyclical equities, in particular Industrials, suggests limited growth optimism in equity markets, which in turn means that traders are betting that central banks will again push stocks to new nosebleed highs in 2020. Here Kostin notes that Goldman's Cyclical (GSSBCYCL) and Defensive (GSSBDEFS) baskets closely track changes in the GS US Current Activity Indicator (Exhibit 4).
See Chart:
Cyclicals should outperform IF US economics growth accelerates. Is Not d case

One final point: just as Deutsche Bank noted yesterday, Goldman confirms that investor positioning in US equities is close to “stretched” territory and could exacerbate equity price moves if one of these risks materializes.
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Pillonarios way of thinking?

Far from creating a futuristic utopia where - once our security needs are met - we are all liberated to pursue our dreams, the universal basic income threatens a totalitarian horror...
A warm chat ensues over a pint with a couple of the other attendees, when miraculously the conversation at my table turns to the universal basic income (UBI). My neighbour gushes with vigour over its merits. He eagerly vows that it will solve innumerable problems facing our civilisation and I get the feeling he has been spreading the gospel at every available turn because this idea is the crucial one. If only he can get enough people to believe it...

I politely wait my turn, and then ask a simple question:“What do you think the potential disadvantages of the basic income would be, then?”

He replies, “There aren’t any.”

Trade-Offs Are Inescapable
Is the UBI is a flying unicorn that poops rainbows?

Well, not according to the titles of their books
Rutger Bregman comes right out and calls his book advocating the UBI Utopia for Realists.
Annie Lowrey’s book Give People Money carries the subtitle “How a Universal Basic Income Would End Poverty, Revolutionize Work, and Remake the World.”
Andy Stern and Lee Kravitz's book Raising the Floor carries a subtitle claiming the UBI will, “Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream.”
Phillipe Van Parijs and Yannick Vanderborght entitled their book Basic Income: A Radical Proposal for a Free Society and a Sane Economy.

Perhaps this is the best ‘PILLONARIO WAY OF THINLING’:  Referring CHINA

IF china is a model to be followed, then universal basic income UBI also represent a grave threat to freedom of speech”. Why?... because:

Far from creating a futuristic utopia where — once our security needs are met — we are all liberated to pursue our dreams, become great scientists, scholars, artists, and entrepreneurs, the universal basic income threatens a totalitarian horror the likes of which we are used to seeing imagined only on The Twilight Zone and The Outer Limits.
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[ FACT:  China didn’t use Stalin methods to dissolve explosive capitalist inequalities. Tian Amin Square & Hong Kong repression –result of US-NED Terrorist intervention- are too short to compared with Stalinism ]

Continue reading at:
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"This all matters because we head into America’s election. It is sure to be the most vitriolic in generations. Who will we hold accountable? What will be the market consequences?"

Not a single person was held accountable for the 2008 debacle. Nor for Iraq/Afghanistan. Earth’s sixth mass extinction is underway, Australia is burning, no global leader wants to seriously be held accountable, or suffer consequences. America least so. And the Fed led global central banks to accommodate all the above with easy money. Their policies turbocharged the inequality that poisons politics in ways more powerful than any elected official could have ever done. Are they ever held to account?

RED LINES?

America can assassinate anyone, anywhere, at almost any time with limited collateral damage. Few of our adversaries can. With today’s technology, we surely would’ve killed Osama bin Laden in Tora Bora in 2001 along with the senior Taliban leaders harboring him. We might’ve saved $6trln and 500k lives.Given that the US has this capability, might we rewrite the rules and adopt an assassination policy? Holding our adversaries to account, imposing a capital consequence when their leaders cross our Red Lines? Soleimani apparently thought the answer was no. How will our adversaries act in the future if they know they’re thus accountable?
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"If this starts to have the feel of a classic credit cycle, then the level of damage when the cycle turns is hard to predict." - Jerome Powell, April 2014.

First, the question, why stop at $4 trillion? The market in most cases will cheer us for doing more. It will never be enough for the market. Our models will always tell us that we are helping the economy, and I will probably always feel that those benefits are overestimated. And we will be able to tell ourselves that market function is not impaired and that inflation expectations are under control. What is to stop us, other than much faster economic growth, which it is probably not in our power to produce?

[W]hen it is time for us to sell, or even to stop buying, the response could be quite strong; there is every reason to expect a strong response. So there are a couple of ways to look at it. It is about $1.2 trillion in sales; you take 60 months, you get about $20 billion a month. That is a very doable thing, it sounds like, in a market where the norm by the middle of next year is $80 billion a month. Another way to look at it, though, is that it’s not so much the sale, the duration; it’s also unloading our short volatility position.

Continue reading at:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



It was Trump's "belief" that attacks were going to happen, said Esper.
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Neocons ‘Opium dream”

Let's investigate the possibility no Democratic candidate will amass 50% of the votes resulting in a brokered convention...
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To investigate the why of your “opium dreams’ get a psychiatric doctor
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"Trump has to go..."
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"...[Deep State] are in a state of shock. They want to get rid of Trump because for the first time in their careers, they can be prosecuted for what they have done..."
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Was President Donald Trump’s short term campaign foreign policy volunteer Carter Page set up by an FBI informant or the informant’s handler at the FBI?
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Trump delusion: See V in Iran Mov in honor of Gral  killed & favor ++ missil-USA  

Trump tweets "The World is watching."
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There is not such killing of Iranian protesters. The social Mov in Iran is against US-UK  terrorist imperialism and their  big lies on Ukraine plane. They didn’t want Iran say the truth  inside the UN  in NY. That is illegal.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

VIENTO SUR

Pakistan:  La bandera solidaridad, contra la represión  Pierre Rousset

RT EN ESPAÑOL

Ocho proyectiles de mortero impactan contra base aérea de Irak que alberga tropas del  US   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/339688-siete-bombas-mortero-impactan-base-irak
La Guardia Rev de Irán afirma que no buscaba matar soldados US  en el ataque con misiles https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/339698-iran-no-buscaba-matar-estadounidenses-ataque
US. amenaza con sanciones a China si sigue comprando petróleo iraní   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/339711-eeuu-sanciones-china-petroleo-iran
Bloomberg asegura estar dispuesto a gastar 1.000 millones de dólares para derrotar a Trump  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/339714-bloomberg-gastar-millones-dolares-derrotar-trump
Secretario de Defensa del US contradice la versión de Trump sobre por qué mataron a Soleimani   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/339690-secretario-defensa-contradecir-version-trump-muerte-soleimani
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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MIDDLE EAST NEWS
Press TV

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