sábado, 25 de enero de 2020

ND JAN 25 SIT EC y POL



ND  JAN  25  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


...we are fast approaching a demographic and economic waterfallamong the consuming nations that will leave little to no export led growth potential for poor nations...
See Chart:
USA (#1 GDP, 25%)

See also 2 Latino countries:
Peru (#30 GDP, 0.3%)

Chile (#27 GDP, 0.3%)

See many other countries at:
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Rejected...
The confirmation remains outstanding, but technically vastly overbought markets are at high risk of a sizable reversion trade.
And then it happened. Rejection. 
And with rejection come technical consequences. Perhaps the start of the first correction of 2020, the first correction since the Fed went wild on the intervention front in October.

It is with some irony one can observe that the downside began the same week FOMO articles dominated the news front last weekend, led by Barron’s $DJIA 30,000 hype cover:
See Chart:
The kiss of death: comes in Twit:

Oops, they’ve done it again?
The $DJIA never made a new high and literally peaked the Friday before the weekend when Barron’s published its article:
See Chart:
Barron’s DOW 30000

See more Charts at:
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...central banks will require sustained geopolitical conflict to shape the future design of the financial system. They are already headlong in devising that very system through thereformation of global payment systems.

Davos:  the Bank for International Settlements BIS announced that multiple central banks have created a group that will  assess potential cases for central bank digital currencies‘.


The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank, together with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), have created a group to share experiences as they assess the potential cases for central bank digital currency (CBDC) in their home jurisdictions.
The group will assess CBDC use cases; economic, functional and technical design choices, including cross-border interoperability; and the sharing of knowledge on emerging technologies. It will closely coordinate with the relevant institutions and forums – in particular, the Financial Stability Board and the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI).
The group will be co-chaired by Benoît Cœuré, Head of the BIS Innovation Hub, and Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and Chair of the CPMI. It will include senior representatives of the participating institutions.

To CBDC’s, the BIS stand at the heart of the issue. The new central bank grouping comes just over six months after the BIS first established an Innovation Hub for central banks (also known as Innovation BIS 2025) with the objective being to ‘foster international collaboration on innovative financial technology within the central banking community‘.

During a speech at the Central Bank of Ireland in March 2019, BIS General Manager Agustin Carstens stated plainly what a CBDC future would look like:
Like cash, a CBDC could and would be available 24/7, 365 days a year. At first glance, not much changes for someone, say, stopping off at the supermarket on the way home from work. He or she would no longer have the option of paying cash. All purchases would be electronic.

To avoid confusion, there are two variants of CBDC that are regularly discussed by central bank officials. The first is a wholesale CBDC, which would be used to facilitate payments exclusively between financial sector firms. The second option, a retail CBDC, would be for  use by the general public.
To quote Carstens from the same speech he made in Ireland:
A CBDC would allow ordinary people and businesses to make payments electronically using money issued by the central bank. Or they could deposit money directly in the central bank, and use debit cards issued by the central bank itself.

Former Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who is now President of the European Central Bank, addressed the Singapore Fintech Festival in November 2018 and hinted at how the future composition of a CBDC could look:
If digital currencies are sufficiently similar to commercial bank deposits— then why hold a bank account at all?
What if, instead, central banks entered a partnership with the private sector—banks and other financial institutions—and said: you interface with the customer, you store their wealth, you offer interest, advice, loans. But when it comes time to transact, we take over.
Banks and other financial firms, including startups, could manage the digital currency. Much like banks which currently distribute cash.

In this reality, central banks would, according to Lagarde, ‘retain a sure footing in payments. By extension, they would also retain autonomy over an all digital financial system.

In relation to what Carstens said about compromising trust, three months prior to the EU referendum Bank of England official Ben Broadbent made a very telling comment in a speech appropriately titled, ‘Central banks and digital currencies‘, about the necessity for currency degradation before the public demand a solution to the traditional monetary model.

Degrade a currency sufficiently, via hyperinflation and collapse of the banking system, and people will eventually look for alternatives. But that’s generally the sort of thing that has to happen. Almost always, these currency substitutions occur only once the existing currency has become deeply compromised. Even then, the thing people naturally reach for is an existing, trusted currency – often the US dollar – rather than some entirely new unit of account. 

When currency substitution has occurred naturally it’s almost always done so only after the incumbent currency has been debauched by hyperinflation.

I have warned extensively over the past couple of years of the risk of a global trade conflict triggering higher inflation, the devaluation of currencies such as sterling and the raising of interest rates. It is what would occur afterwards that is of more concern. Would people look to central banks as the saviours in a crisis scenario, giving them licence to digitise all assets through a network of CBDC’s?
See Advertisement:

As ever, central banks will require sustained geopolitical conflict to shape the future design of the financial system. They are already headlong in devising that very system through the reformation of global payment systems. But with distractions in the shape Brexit and Donald Trump’s presidency still dominating the discourse, potentially up to 2025, how many are even aware of what the central banks are planning?
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Joe Rogan endorsement-induced liberal meltdown & CNN-Warren hatchet job have clearly backfired
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Veterans of Foreign Wars lashes out after learning 34 soldiers suffered 'traumatic brain injury'...
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"People will hear about this..."
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"None of us have been told that."
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"In two hours, the White House counsel entirely shredded the case..."
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The emergency evacuation is planned for Sunday, but limited details... 
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Should the US resort to more Hamiltonian policies versus everyone, not just China, then we are in for real financial market turbulence ahead given the role the US Dollar plays today compared to the role gold played for Smith and Ricardo!

2020 starts with markets feeling optimistic due to a US-China trade deal and a reworked NAFTA in the form of the USMCA. However, the tide towards protectionism may still be coming in, not going out.
THE FACT is that for the majority of the last 5,000 years global trade has been highly-politicized and heavily-regulated

What are we getting wrong? Perhaps that Ricardo’s theory has major flaws that don’t get included in our textbooks, as summarized in this overlooked quote

“It would undoubtedly be advantageous to the capitalists of England…[that] the wine and cloth should both be made in Portugal [and that] the capital and labour of England employed in making cloth should be removed to Portugal for that purpose.” Which is pretty much what happens today! However, Ricardo adds that this won’t happen because “Most men of property [will be] satisfied with a low rate of profits in their own country, rather than seek a more advantageous employment for their wealth in foreign nations,” which is simply not true at all! In other words, his premise is flawed in that:

  • It is atemporal in assuming countries move to their comparative advantage painlessly and instantly;
  • It assumes full employment 
  • It assumes capital between countries is immobile
  • It assumes trade balances under free trade 
  • It assumes all goods are equal as in Ricardo’s example, cloth produced in the UK and wine produced in Portugal are equivalent

 Ricardo assumes a benign global political environment for free trade. Yet what if the UK and Portugal are rivals or enemies? What if the choice is between steel and wine? You can’t invade neighbours armed with wine as you can with steel! A large part of the trade tension between China and the US, just as between pre-WW1 Germany and the UK, is not about trade per se: for both sides, it is about who produces key inputs with national security implications - and hence is about relative power

 The track record also shows that global growth can continue even despite protectionism, and in some cases can benefit from it. That being said, should the US resort to more Hamiltonian policies versus everyone, not just China, then we are in for real financial market turbulence ahead given the role the US Dollar plays today compared to the role gold played for Smith and Ricardo! But that is a whole different fairy tale...
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More than 129,000  Illinois public pensioners will see expected payouts of $1 million or more during retirement...
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House Dems will seek to curtail administration's ability for preemptive military action on Iran.
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


Under this legislation, men accused of having sex with underaged girls could avoid punishment if they marry their victims...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

VIENTO SUR

España  Pensión No Contributiva Una vergüenza (más) en España  Acacio Puig
El trabajo de cuidados: Tiempo para el cuidado Oxfam NO a la desigualdad
Imperio decadente:  Trump en Irán y el síndrome de Nerón  Ander y Solana
Davos:  Truco o trato en Davos  Miguel Urbán
Contrapoderes: balances y lecciones Presentación del Plural Joseba y Lorena
MX: El infierno ecológ de "paraísos industriales"  Julia  M, Mike O e Iñaki B
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

"Volvemos a la Edad Media, un neofeudalismo en el que cinco empresas poseerán todo"  https://actualidad.rt.com/programas/keiser_report/341019-unico-bueno-reserva-federal-e1493  Depende de Nos el construir un mundo sin imperios
Perú va a las urnas para recomponer el Congreso, en medio de un clima de "decadencia política"  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340592-peru-urnas-recomponer-congreso
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ASIAN NEWS
Press TV

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