ND JAN 24 SIT
EC y POL
ND denounce
Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
These are the 10 macroeconomic trendslikely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this
year...
Scott
Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, and Guggenheim’s Macroeconomic
and Investment Research Group analyze the 10 macroeconomic trends
likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance this year.
1. Household net worth gains will
continue to support consumption, the main driver of growth for the U.S.
economy, even with business investment contracting and
the manufacturing sector experiencing a recession.
See Chart:
US Household assets &
Liabilities
2. The
housing market will contribute positively to U.S. economic growth. Mortgage
rates have come down a full percentage point over the past year, helping home sales and construction recover, a trend which
will continue into 2020.
See Chart:
U Michigan Survey: Buying conditions by reason %
3. We
forecast the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which has been a key driver of markets in recent years, will grow at a much slower pace in 2020,which could undercut the “QE-lite” market narrative.
See Chart:
4. A tight labor market will
further depress corporate profit margins in 2020. In an environment
of limited pricing power, businesses are struggling to pass on higher labor
costs, resulting in declining profitability that should
weigh on hiring and investment plans.
See Chart:
US Corp Pre-Tax Profits vs Unit labor costs
5. Corporate defaults will rise as debt burdens weigh on the credit markets. In
today’s corporate credit markets, which include more below-investment
grade-rated debt and more BBB-rated debt (the lowest IG rating) than ever
before, it is unsustainable for firms to operate with
historically high leverage without a rise in defaults.
See Chart:
US nonfinancial Corp Business
leverage vs. 3 year Cumulat Corp
credit lost rates
6. Credit rating downgrades will
add headwinds to business investment. Weak earnings growth and a continued increase in leverage has
resulted in more credits being downgraded than upgraded by the ratings
agencies. Lower ratings will make it costlier to take
on additional debt curtail business hiring and investment.
See Chart:
Moody’s upgrades & downgrates for US Invest vs.
High-yields credits
7. The Fed’s “soft-landing” may
prove elusive, as momentum in the labor market will fade as the pool of unemployed workers continues to
shrink and economic growth cools. Historically, once
the two-year change in the unemployment rate turns positive, the economy enters
a recession.
See Chart:
Two year change in the US Unemployment rate
8. Consumer confidence will hinge
on the health of the labor market. For
confidence to rise from here, the economy will need to
somehow create jobs at a faster pace in 2020, which seems like a tall order
given an unemployment rate at a 50-year low.
SEE Chart:
Consumer
Confidence Index : Y/Y change
9. Historically high wealth and
income inequality will fuel popular support for economically disruptive
policies such as a wealth tax, higher corporate tax rates, universal basic income, and Medicare for all, increasing
policy uncertainty.
See Chart:
SHARE OF Nat Net Worth by Percentile groups
10. The 2020 election will be more
consequential for the economy than any election in the past. Spurred
by social media, 24-hour cable news, and high political polarization, consumers are making economic decisions based on political
developments.
See Chart:
Univ of
Michigan: Consum sentiment survey:
Reason for Opin on Busin Condit
Trump’ low chances of been re-elected
….
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RELATED
It is true the bears
didn’t eat “Goldilocks” at the end of the story, but then again, there never was a sequel either...
See Chart:
See more
interesting charts here:
….
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"PROBABLY
NOTHING..."
For a sense of
the damage (or perhaps more of the calm we have encountered in the last few
months)...
- Shanghai Comp's worst week in 8 months
- S&P 500's worst week in 5 months
- "Most Shorted" stocks had their biggest weekly drop in 4 months
- France's CAC 40 worst week in almost 4 months
- VIX's biggest weekly spike in almost 6 months
- HY Bond Prices worst week in almost 5 months
- Treasury yields biggest weekly drop in 4 months
- Yield curve's biggest weekly flattening in 2 months
- USD's best week in 2 months
- Yuan's worst week in 4 months
- Copper's worst week in over 5 years
- Oil's biggest weekly drop in 8 months
- Gold's 6th weekly rise in last 7 weeks
TWO MORE BAD
NEWS:
-China ended notably weaker this week (China closed on Friday
for lunar new year celebration)...
- Mixed picture in Europe this week with Germany clinging to
gains while France and Spain tumbled...
THE WORSE: THE
US
US Equity majors were all down on the week, unable to hold
the hope-filled gains...Nasdaq ended
its 6-weekly gain in a row (and AAPL broke its 9 week streak)
See Chart:
And the S&P desperately tried to get back to 3300 (but
couldn't hold it)...
See Chart:
El muerto parece resucitar .. PERO:
Where 'peak' gamma is...
See Chart:
Estimated S&P 500
dealer vs. Gamma by Spot Price
In addition : "Most Shorted" stocks plunged this
week
See Chart:
As Dow Earnings expectations plunge...
See Chart:
Dow industrials vs. Dow Industrial EPS
The divergence between stocks and bond yields failed to
narrow as while stocks fell, bond yields plunged...
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs 30Y Yield:
they both got the virus
Meanwhile, credit markets are getting clubbed like a baby
seal...
See Chart:
S& P vs. HYG
Treasury yields plunged their most in 4 months this week...
See Chart:
The Dollar sobrevive: it surged to key December resistance,
up 3 weeks in a row...
See Chart:
WTI crude futs tumbled to a $53 handle intraday today, lowest
in 3 months...
See Chart:
Finally, 1 stupid trampist-correlation: markets hate Liz Warren and Bernie Sanders
(INVERTED: they add) , aunque DOW shows
they are going up
See Chart:
FACT: THE DATA IN PREVIOUS
CHARTS PREVAILED
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/corona-contagion-crashes-commoditystock-markets-worldwide-bonds-bullion-bid
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Some people don’t
like to hear anti-Trump truth. It
doesn’t matter who is A Schiff
'Now roll over!'
====
It’s critical to understand that financial war
is not a sideshow. It
may actually be the main event in today’s deeply connected and computerized
world...
====
Opium dreams:
It's a big club, and you ain't in
it...
….
Only the 1% of the US belong to the Club
====
The new record in
polarization beats Trump’s 2018 partisan approval gap by three
points...
====
...depending on which news you
watch, your ideas of what happened, who attended, what the rally
was about, and how it proceeded could be radically different than the person
next to you at work.
====
Finally Trump
is getting out of our space. He don’t’ belong to human universe
Set phasers to triggered...??
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo
Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global
depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"100’s of
thousands protest in Baghdad, calling for all US troops to leave Iraq, close
all bases & embassies, if they don’t they will be considered an occupying
force."
====
China has already usurped the U.S.as the world’s most dominant
trading partner.
….
Since
2018, both parties have faced a fraught relationship, imposing major tariffs on
consumer and industrial goods—and retaliations are
reaching greater and greater heights:
See
Chart:
Trading Places: A Global Shift
Today’s
animation comes from the Lowy
Institute, and it pulls data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
database on bilateral trade flows, to determine whether the U.S. or China is a bigger trading partner for each country from 1980
to 2018.
See
Map
BLOCKED
….
Check SOURCE:
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...former OPCW inspection team leader and
engineering expert Ian Henderson stated that their investigation in Douma,
Syria suggested no chemical attack took place. But their findings
were suppressed...
====
And Erdogan just announced Turkey
issending in more military
"advisers"...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n
GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion
via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f
alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
====
ALAI NET
ALC:
Partido y Fuerzas Armadas son claves en la
lucha REV Fdo Bossi
COL: El Paro Nacional y el asesinato de los líderes sociales
COL: El Paro Nacional y el asesinato de los líderes sociales
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
Un
hospital de 1.000 camas en seis días: China construye en tiempo récord un
centro para tratar el coronavirus https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340926-china-construir-hospital-seis-dias-coronavirus
Accidente
o negligencia? La vida del municipio brasileño de Brumadinho, sepultado en
cuestión de minutos https://actualidad.rt.com/programas/rt_reporta/340899-brumadinho-brasil-dolor-luto-desesperacion
China
confirma el primer caso de curación del nuevo coronavirus https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340947-china-confirmar-primera-paciente-curada-coronavirus
VEN
le responde a Macrón: "Un gobierno sordo y arrogante no puede dar
lecciones de democracia" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340977-venezuela-responde-macron-gobierno-sordo
"Insólito
derroche de xenofobia" en Peru. Venezuela rechaza creación de "grupo
élite" para perseguir a venezolanos migrantes . No es insólito: la
xenofobia militar tiene vieja historia en Perú. 1ro fueron los quechuas y ahora
los migrantes. Los quechuas se defendieron con la ley (el Presid Fujimori está
en la cárcel por asesinar quechuas, además de otros delitos) y se defieden con
las armas también (cuando el plan condor de los fascistas que asesinaron a
Allende enviaron a Perú 22 mercenarios USA para silenciar a los quechuas, estos
le volaron el hotel ‘Tarata’ donde estaban alojados. No quedo ninguno vivo. La
embajada USA cerró el pico pues estaban en la mira también. Tuvieron que irse. Pero
los migrantes no pueden defenderse. El abuso militar contra ellos es simplemente
criminal. Me da mucha pena y vergüenza lo que ocurre en Perú. https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340938-venezuela-rechaza-declaraciones-peru-xenofobia-venezolanos
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism
& internal conflicts that favor WW3
- Is Iran An Enemy Of The United States? No;
But Efforts Are Underway To Make It One!
By Kambiz Zarrabi
By Kambiz Zarrabi
- Trump Israel deal will fell peace process
house of cards By Omar Karmi
- Wahrheit Macht Frei… Truth Sets You Free By Finian Cunningham
- "If they take you in the morning, they
will be coming for us in the night."
An Open Letter to My Sister, Miss Angela Davis ByJames Baldwin’
An Open Letter to My Sister, Miss Angela Davis ByJames Baldwin’
- Adam Schiff Is a Dangerous Warmonger By Liza Featherstone Adam Schiff is a wholly owned subsidiary of the
military-industrial complex and a fervent exponent of permanent war, said Liza. But
she has to admit that Trump is now the worse and dangerous warmonger. Trump is
the best servant of PENTA-M I C & the key of WW3
- While Trump cuts food stamps, USAID bankrolls
Venezuela regime change with half a billion in tax dollars By Ben Norton
- The Davos World Economic Forum an Orgy of
Power and Money By Peter
Koenig
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US
Politics & Geopolitics
Paul Street A Letter
From Iowa
Chuck Churchill The
Long History of Elite Rule: What Will It Take To End It?
Robert Hunziker A
Climate Time Bomb With Trump’s Name Inscribed
Andrew Levine Trump: The King
Kavaljit Singh The
US-China Trade Deal is Mostly Symbolic
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics
& Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Trump’s
“No-Peace Plan” for Palestine. Netanyahu/Gantz Invited to White House to
Discuss “Deal of the Century” By Stephen Lendman
- Never
the Pentagon: How the Military-Industrial Complex Gets Away with Murder in
Contract after Contract By Mandy Smithberger,
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ASIAN NEWS
Press TV
- China virus death toll rises to 41, more than 1,000 infected
- Schiff: Trump must be removed from White House
- US-UK potential trade war over Internet giant tax
- 'US stole Venezuela’s oil company Citgo in 2019'
- MEPs call for tougher EU stance against Myanmar
- Syria forces close in on key militant-held city in Idlib: Monitor
- France confirms first two cases of coronavirus
- French general strike fails as cabinet adopts pension reform
- Iran’s Zarif hits back at Saudi official over ‘normal state’ remarks
- 34 US troops injured in Iran missile strike: Pentagon
- EU extends 'timeline' for JCPOA dispute mechanism
- US had better leave Iraq voluntarily than be expelled: PMU
- Syria forces close in on key militant-held city in Idlib: Monitor
- Syrians in Golan protest against Israeli plan for wind turbines
- Yemeni army, allies seize strategic areas east of Sana’a
- Israel prevents gas from entering Gaza and begins selling it to Egypt
- Merkel, Erdogan discuss Libya
- PROGRAMS
- Sentiment in Iraq
- ICJ ruling
- Lost revenue
- Honolulu shooting
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