ND JAN
23 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
It's
important not to let complacency
interfere with vigilance. A slow motion train wreck is still ultimately a train wreck...
Currently, stock buybacks are set to decline this
year, and I don't think this is because corporations have decided they want to
quit the tactic. They have to quit, because the amount of debt they are
accumulating is is now outpacing their falling
profits. Corporate profits peaked in the 3rd Quarter of 2018
and have been
in decline ever since. The Price-to-Earnings ratio as well as the
Price-to-Sales ratio are now well
above their historic peak during the dot-com bubble, meaning, stocks
have never been more overvalued compared to the profits that corporations are
actually bringing in.
See Chart:
Price/sales
at record high
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/MW-HY012_pricet_20200108133801_NS.jpg?itok=BNYku-l_
Continue
reading at :
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World Leading Economic Indicators at their weakest
since 2009...
See Chart:
In the US Defensives continue to lead the week,
though cyclicals were bid aggressively today...
See Chart:
Credit markets were not buying this dip...
See Chart:
And while stocks pushed back towards record highs,
bond yields plunged to 3 month lows....
See Chart:
Treasury yields fell for the 3rd day in a row...
See Chart:
With 30Y Yield back at their lowest since early October... This is the biggest 30Y Yield drop to start a year
since 2015
See Chart:
The B-Dollar spiked to its highest in a month early
on before fading back...
See Chart:
Finally, Americans are the least pessimistic about
the economy since March 2002...
See Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-surge-intraday-despite-global-virus-nado-plunging-us-data
….
RELATED 1:
The psychotic instability will resolve itself when the
illusory officially sanctioned "capitalism" implodes...
….
RELATED 2:
our
addiction to stock price inflation is politically and economically toxic.
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BMO says there are 75% odds that by
mid-March, the Fed will need to start monetizing coupon bonds in addition to
Bills, effectively transforming
"Not QE" into QE 4.
To explain to him how the
Fed is moving prices with its $60BN in monthly purchases of T-Bills (something
we did last week), an key development is coming that will make all such
debates moot: in a few
months the Fed's "Not QE" will officially become "QE 4."
The
reason: following an update to BMO's bill supply forecasts, the bank's
rates strategist Jon Hill sees a great likelihood
that the Fed will need to reduce
its "demand burden" on the bill market, i.e., there won't be
enough Bills available for the Fed to monetize without it distorting the
market, and will extend the
purchase program to include short coupons in the process
officially ending any debate whether the Fed's manipulation of the market under
the guise of saving repo, is "Not QE", because it is limited to Bills
and thus no duration is taken out of the market, or is "QE 4", in which the Fed purchases
at least some coupon securities in addition to Bills.
Once the Fed makes the shift,
BMO expects the monthly sizes of $60 bn, or $30 bn post assumed taper, would be
composed of both bills and short coupons, "helping
to reduce expected pressure in the bill market. "
At this
point, Hill puts 75% odds on this change occurring by mid-March, meaning
that any farcical "debate" whether the
Fed's injection of anywhere between $60 and $100BN in liquidity each month into
the equity market, is or isn't QE, will very soon be
mercifully over.
What if
BMO is wrong, and the Fed does not adjust purchases to include short coups? In
that case, the Canadian banks foresees a $321 billion reduction in bill supply
in Q2 2020...
See Chart:
Medium Term Quarterly Bill Supply Outlook
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bill%20issuance%20calendar%201.23.jpg?itok=krZmMS-9
... which would be the largest quarterly drop in
privately available outstandings on record.
See Chart:
Quarterly Net Change in Bill Supply
In BMO's baseline scenario, the
bill purchase program will total $390BN by the time it is unwound (before it
returns again, of course). This will continue to displace demand for Fed repo
operations, but not at a sufficient pace as to allow for a full stop of the reserve
management purchases before Q2. Instead, and as we
predicted last October, the most prudent policy adjustment per Hill, appears to
be expanding the program to include short coupons in the next couple months
See Charts:
Fig
5: Combined FED Repo inyections
& Reserve managements Purchasing
Fig
6: Projected Pace &
Cumulative Total of Fed Reserve Management Purchasess
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/BMO%20projected%20balance%20sheet.jpg?itok=55zSbEMC
One key question which may be
asked by all those who still don't get the nuance of the debate among the
"Not QE" and "QE" crowd, is "what's the hesitation for the Fed buying coupons
in addition to bills?"
The
answer is simple: by focusing only on T-bill purchases, the Fed was
given a semantic loophole, and was able to fall back on
Powell's October 2019 vow that "in no sense is this QE", since
it's easier to make the argument because it does not
directly drive long-end yields down (of course, as
we explained the mere continued injection of up to $100BN in liquidity
each month is all the market cares about). This would
also be the case if they only purchased coupons maturing in one year or less.
The
second reason why the Fed is reluctant to expand purchases to include
short coupons is the way they have signaled their reaction function on the
topic. According to BMO, "in the current
framework, it appears that they would need to actually observe liquidity
impairment in bills before tweaking the program details." One
reason not mentioned by BMO is that with the Fed officially set to transition
to QE, it will no longer be possible for Powell to
evade a discussion over the new round of monetary easing - i.e., QE4 -
and the cascade of question why this is happening when unemployment is
3.5%, when wage growth is 3.0%, and when the US economy is nowhere near a
crisis like the one that launched the original QE. Unless,
of course, the US is very near a crisis, and the Fed knows much more
than it is letting on...
The last question: "If the Fed pivoted to short coupons, when would they
announce the change?"
In terms of timing, the focus
on disconnecting the reserve management purchases from true monetary policy makes it unlikely (though not impossible) that the
announcement would come at an FOMC meeting. Instead, our focus will
be on the upcoming operational announcements - the next one is February 13 at 3:00 PM ET.
be on the upcoming operational announcements - the next one is February 13 at 3:00 PM ET.
If the FOMC wanted to signal that a pivot into short coupons was imminent, we see two primary avenues: Powell's press conference on January 29 (he's sure to receive a question or two on the topic) and the January meeting Minutes which will be released on February 19.
….
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"If monetary policy were the key
to an earthly prosperity, surely all nations would have bootstrapped themselves
by the simple artifice of helicopter money."
Just over three years
ago, TCW's Chief Investment Officer in Fixed Income, Tad Rivelle, oversees
roughly $180BN in assets, or more than Jeff Gundlach,stated
that we are now living through the third consecutive asset bubble in a
row, "the central bankers' bubble" which
followed the dot com and housing bubbles...
See Chart:
The Fed Continues to Continue to Pretend.
But when the 2008 crisis hit, market clearing levels for loanable funds
were exorbitant.Credit was priced out of reach for all but the most pristine
(prudent) borrowers, asset prices were in free fall, and
a financial system that had built an excess of leverage was at risk of
implosion.
Of course, an asset price
inflation spurred on by an expansion of credit is exactly what Dr. Bernanke initially ordered up, though you may recall that he never intended
the artificial expansion in loanable funds to be a permanent policy.
That all changed with the 2013 “taper tantrum” and was reinforced by the
2018 abortive attempt by the Powell Fed to “normalize” rates and balance sheet
so slowly that it was supposed to be like watching “paint dry.” Policies implemented as a response to
crisis now can’t be exited without provoking the next crisis.
Monetary policies have long
since become more problem than solution. Raising
rates and normalizing the Fed’s balance sheet would now be tantamount to
pulling the pegs out from the bottom of the Jenga tower. Fundamentally,
you can’t exit a Potemkin economy without forcing changes in the kind and
quantities of demand. But, that, of course, would force the supply side
to adjust. In other words, we’d have recession.
Exhibit 1: Fed Policies Have Lifted P/E Multiples, Yet
Aggregate Profits Have Stagnated
See Chart:
Absent a crisis, faith in the
power of monetary tools to foster a healthy configuration of labor and capital
has long been severely misplaced. But market forces are powerful precisely
because they are rooted in practical realities. Economics is always about the
management of scarcity and while expansions in the supply of credit may shift
who gets to buy what resources from whom and when, the plain fact is that a
scarce commodity remains so regardless of whether interest rates are high or
low. While we may be glossing over notions of relative scarcity versus absolute
scarcity, an approachable example, say the supply of oceanfront homes, can
serve to illustrate the point.
Continue reading at:
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Impeachment- debate should ‘ve been organized
on evidences of highest crimes & misdemeanor committed by Trump. Saying that the Gvt didn’t allow
access to them is a plea to the Supreme Court to act, if they have interest in the future of US, BUT, If the
SC decide not to get involve.. All this theater is a favor to Trump in complicity of SC.
"It’s always been said that
impeachment is a political process.
Well that’s an understatement when
you look at what’s going on now..."
====
Maybe the consumer is too broke to
ski this year?
A day at Vail Resorts, that is, if
you rent skis and purchase a lift ticket, could cost upwards of $300 per day.
And that doesn't include lodging!
All said and done, a heavily indebted
consumer, or let's say a broke millennial, could spend upwards of $500 per day
on ski rental, lift ticket, and lodging (ex. food expenses).
A typical visit to Vail isn't just
one day but rather a weekend trip. So, the consumer might spend upwards of $1,500
– all charged to their credit
cards with an average rate of 17%.
Vail Resorts reported Friday
that the ski season, which started on January 05, was off to a very slow start
compared to the beginning of last season.
Season-to-date
skier visits were down 7.8% compared with the first several weeks of the
opening ski season last year.
The report said season-to-date
lift ticket revenue was up 0.40% over the same period.
Ski
school revenue was up 2%, and dining revenue was down 3% over the first several
weeks compared to last year.
Retail/rental revenue for North
American resorts and ski area store locations was also down 1.8%.
Commenting
on the start of a possible disastrous ski season is Rob Katz, Chief
Executive Officer, who said:
"Relative to the strong conditions in the prior year,
the 2019/2020 North American ski season got off to a slower start, impacting
both our local and destination guest visitation in the pre-holiday period
through December 19, 2019.
"Given the strong conditions
last year, the initial guidance for the fiscal year 2020 incorporated the
possibility of a slower start to the season."
So if it's a $300 to $500 per day or upwards of $1,500 for
the weekend for a Vail trip, does the broke consumer really have that much to
spend? So far, the answer to the question at the start of the season is
no.
….
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Chaos, it seems, is now Washington’s stock-in-trade...
Check these subtitles and key
statements:
Mark
Twain took his criticism public. A
long-time anti-imperialist, he flippantly suggested that
Old Glory should be redesigned “with the white stripes painted black and the
stars replaced by the skull and cross-bones.”
Chaos, it seems, is now Washington’s stock-in-trade. Perhaps, then, it’s time to resurrect Twain’s comment - only today maybe those stars on our flag should be replaced
with the universal symbol for
chaos.
Our present administration,
launched this madness. President Trump’s rash, risky, and repugnant decision to
assassinate Iranian Major General Qassem Suleimani on the sovereign soil of
Iraq was only the latest version of what has proven to
be a pervasive state of affairs. Still, that and Trump’s other
recent escalations in
the region do illustrate an American chaos machine
that’s gone off the rails.
Sub-titles:
The Goldilocks Method
Bush, Obama, and the Chaos Machine’s Tragic Foundations
The Trumpian Perfect Storm
The Rapture as Foreign Policy
[[ Conclusion: ]]
Given the foundations set in place for Trump by
George W. Bush and Barack Obama and his capacity to throw caution to the wind,
it’s hard to imagine a better candidate to play that role.
….
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The loss of Kennedy and King constituted conclusive confirmation
that the worst mistake in U.S. history was to abandon a limited-government
republic, in favor of a totalitarian governmental structure known as a
national-security state...
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The big elephant in the room that many people still refuse to talk
about is that the U.S. in 2020 is an imperial oligarchy... a system defined
by gross concentrations of power and centralization...
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There have been two completely different Americas in U.S. history.
Let’s examine twelve ways in which they differ...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
The global
oil and gas industry is facing the “twin threats” of the loss of profitability and the loss of social acceptability as
the climate crisis continues to worsen...
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Patriot systems deployment 'likely'
say Pentagon sources, after Iraq airspace near US bases essentially went 'unprotected'...
====
Erdogan continues bid to lay claim
to half of entire East
Mediterranean waters...
====
BBC cites Haftar's top military spokesman: "any military
or civilian aircraft, regardless of its affiliation, flying over the capital
will be destroyed."
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MEANING
OF BOTTOM-UP REV
“VIVA
LA PAZ” vs Trump ‘ approach:
arms, wars & conflicts world-wIde
Hugo
Adan Jan 23 / 2020
This is my reaction to the art:
"Long range lethality, reduced signature, minimum
soldier load..."
…..
To avoid WW3 we have to take Trump out of power. How too? We
have to ARM PEACE. Meaning:
We have to ORGANIZE CELLS
&BRIGADES & stake
streets demanding REFERENDUMS in
every Town & States to define what
are the urgent PUBLIC NEEDs in terms of peace, education, health, salaries and houses for all.
For us peace means NOT ARMS,
NOT VIOLENCE. IF the elected Gvt in each town & State don’t respond
to those demand we simply request their RESIGNATION & we will elect a new one, a
parallel one (whatever
the result of official election 2020) .
REMEMBER 1: in terms of war-policies DEMS & REPS are the same: look at Congressmen & most House members; they both support WW3 .
SO: We have to dismantle
Trump’ power first and then then the Dems-war-mongers. We need to organize this bottom-up peaceful Rev, with special focus on Trump’
policies.
REMEMBER 2: This bottom-up
peaceful REV start by demanding the resignation of all war mongers, if they get
re- elected in 2020. DEMs war-mongers are the
main allies of Trump. And Trump
believe he has them in his pocket. So, Trump is our main problem and demanding
his resignation is THE ONLY WAY TO STOP WW3.. that
is Trump’s main US policy.
REMEMBER 3: WW3 is a business for the rich, and the Military
Industrial Complex (the heart of PENTA-CIA)
for the poor it means death.
This peaceful bottom up REV IS A
MATTER OF LIFE vs. DEATH. Their life depends on arms,
violence & wars. Our life depends
on peaceful ORG of cells & brigates
to take streets and demand referendums town by town, State by State.
WE WILL WIN! : PEACE WILL WIN!
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
Ecol:
Beatriz Felipe " No existe la figura del refugiado
climático"
====
ALAI NET
ORG
Guatemala Aciertos y pifias del nuevo gobierno Factor Méndez
COL: Paro Nacional : asesinato de líderes sociales en Col Pedro S.
COL: Paro Nacional : asesinato de líderes sociales en Col Pedro S.
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
"Eco
de Guerra Fría": US inicia preparativos
para ejercicios militar en Europa https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340886-ejercicio-defender-eeuu-europa-rusia
"Ya
son ricos": Gob VEN acusa a Guaidó, Borges y López de quedarse con dinero
de la ayuda humanitaria https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340837-gobierno-venezuela-guaido-borges-lopez-ayuda-humanitaria
"Antes
de que sea tarde": millonarios piden a sus 'colegas' pagar impuestos y así
evitar "desastre para todos" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340854-millonarios-pagar-impuestos-evitar-desastre-todos
Maduro
busca Ado con la oposición venezolana para renovar el Consejo Nacional
Electoral https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340748-maduro-quiere-acuerdo-oposicion-venezolana
Respuesta
de Cuba a acusaciones de Áñez de quedarse con el 80 % de pagos a los médicos en
Bol https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340818-respuesta-cuba-acusaciones-anez-dinero-medicos
Marcha por
la paz: los mexicanos exigen el fin de la violencia https://actualidad.rt.com/video/340884-marcha-paz-mexicanos-exigen-fin-violencia
Los 3
escándalos de corrupción del primer año de la "autoproclamación" de
Guaidó en Ven. https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340481-escandalos-corrupcion-salpican-juan-guaido
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-
Trump's Davos speech exposed how US
isolationism is reaching its final narcissistic chapter By R Fisk
-
The Trump Coup to Come By
Paul Street
-
Laying the Groundwork for the Next Civil War By John Whitehead
-
The American Chaos Machine By Danny Sjursen
-
US’s Inalienable Right to Violence By Gregory Shupak
- What governments learned from the Iraq War By Peter Hitchens
-
Ten Best Messages for Waging Peace Be Freedom
-
Tulsi Gabbard sues Hillary Clinton for $50M
over 'Russian asset' remark
By ICH & Agencies La pedophile Hillary ya deberia estar en la carcel
By ICH & Agencies La pedophile Hillary ya deberia estar en la carcel
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COUNTER
PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics &
Geopolitics
Robert
Fantina Impeachment
as a Distraction
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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ASIAN
NEWS
Press TV
- US refusal to extradite diplomat's wife 'denial of justice': UK
- Australian Open: Nadal 3-0 Delbonis
- 'US threat to assassinate new Quds Force cmdr. state terrorism'
- Senior Saudi scholar in Auschwitz camp ahead of Holocaust anniv.
- Trump to release Mideast plan, invites Netanyahu, Gantz to US
- EU's handling of JCPOA pilloried at Brussels conference
- Brexit bill passes hurdle at European Parliament
- French hold torch-lit protest in Paris against pension reform
- Russia blasts US threats to assassinate new Quds Force cmdr.
- Zarif: Iran open to dialog with all neighbors
- ‘Patriot missile system deployment violates Iraq sovereignty’
- S Africa ruling party’s ally holds large anti-US rally
- ‘So-called Trump deal exposes US’ long-fixated delusions’
- 40 Syrian forces killed, scores wounded in militant attack in Idlib
- Iraq set for ‘million-man march’ amid anger over Salih-Trump meeting
- US threatens to assassinate Gen. Soleimani’s successor
- More than 200,000 people in US may be stateless: Study
- Israel prevents gas from entering Gaza and begins selling it to Egypt
- Macron faces off with Israeli forces at Jerusalem al-Quds
- Kosovo detains woman for decrying US assassination of Iran general
- EU's handling of JCPOA pilloried at Brussels conference
- PROGRAMS
- Iran retaliation fallout
- Debate: OPCW Syria mission
- Lebanon's new goverment
- Israel, Egypt Gas Deal
….
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