viernes, 24 de enero de 2020

ND JAN 23 SIT EC y POL



ND  JAN  23  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

It's important not to let complacency interfere with vigilance.  A slow motion train wreck is still ultimately a train wreck...
Currently, stock buybacks are set to decline this year, and I don't think this is because corporations have decided they want to quit the tactic. They have to quit, because the amount of debt they are accumulating is is now outpacing their falling  profits. Corporate profits peaked in the 3rd Quarter of 2018 and have been in decline ever since.  The Price-to-Earnings ratio as well as the Price-to-Sales ratio are now well above their historic peak during the dot-com bubble, meaning, stocks have never been more overvalued compared to the profits that corporations are actually bringing in.
See Chart:
Price/sales at record high
Continue reading at :
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World  Leading Economic Indicators at their weakest since 2009...
See Chart:

In the US Defensives continue to lead the week, though cyclicals were bid aggressively today...
See Chart:

Credit markets were not buying this dip...
See Chart:

And while stocks pushed back towards record highs, bond yields plunged to 3 month lows....
See Chart:

Treasury yields fell for the 3rd day in a row...
See Chart:

With 30Y Yield back at their lowest since early October... This is the biggest 30Y Yield drop to start a year since 2015
See Chart:

The B-Dollar spiked to its highest in a month early on before fading back...
See Chart:

Finally, Americans are the least pessimistic about the economy since March 2002...
See Chart:
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RELATED 1:
The psychotic instability will resolve itself when the illusory officially sanctioned "capitalism" implodes...
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RELATED 2:
our addiction to stock price inflation is politically and economically toxic.
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BMO says there are 75% odds that by mid-March, the Fed will need to start monetizing coupon bonds in addition to Bills, effectively transforming "Not QE" into QE 4.
 To explain to him how the Fed is moving prices with its $60BN in monthly purchases of T-Bills (something we did last week), an key development is coming that will make all such debates moot: in a few months the Fed's "Not QE" will officially become "QE 4."
The reason: following an update to BMO's bill supply forecasts, the bank's rates strategist Jon Hill sees a great likelihood that the Fed will need to reduce its "demand burden" on the bill market, i.e., there won't be enough Bills available for the Fed to monetize without it distorting the market, and will extend the purchase program to include short coupons in the process officially ending any debate whether the Fed's manipulation of the market under the guise of saving repo, is "Not QE", because it is limited to Bills and thus no duration is taken out of the market, or is "QE 4", in which the Fed purchases at least some coupon securities in addition to Bills.
Once the Fed makes the shift, BMO expects the monthly sizes of $60 bn, or $30 bn post assumed taper, would be composed of both bills and short coupons, "helping to reduce expected pressure in the bill market. "
At this point, Hill puts 75% odds on this change occurring by mid-March, meaning that any farcical "debate" whether the Fed's injection of anywhere between $60 and $100BN in liquidity each month into the equity market, is or isn't QE, will very soon be mercifully over.
What if BMO is wrong, and the Fed does not adjust purchases to include short coups? In that case, the Canadian banks foresees a $321 billion reduction in bill supply in Q2 2020...
See Chart:
Medium Term Quarterly Bill Supply Outlook

... which would be the largest quarterly drop in privately available outstandings on record.
See Chart:
Quarterly Net Change in Bill Supply

In BMO's baseline scenario, the bill purchase program will total $390BN by the time it is unwound (before it returns again, of course). This will continue to displace demand for Fed repo operations, but not at a sufficient pace as to allow for a full stop of the reserve management purchases before Q2. Instead, and as we predicted last October, the most prudent policy adjustment per Hill, appears to be expanding the program to include short coupons in the next couple months
See Charts:
Fig 5:  Combined FED Repo inyections & Reserve managements Purchasing
Fig 6:  Projected Pace & Cumulative Total of Fed Reserve Management Purchasess
One key question which may be asked by all those who still don't get the nuance of the debate among the "Not QE" and "QE" crowd, is "what's the hesitation for the Fed buying coupons in addition to bills?"
The answer is simple: by focusing only on T-bill purchases, the Fed was given a semantic loophole, and was able to fall back on Powell's October 2019 vow that "in no sense is this QE", since it's easier to make the argument because it does not directly drive long-end yields down (of course, as we explained the mere continued injection of up to $100BN in liquidity each month is all the market cares about). This would also be the case if they only purchased coupons maturing in one year or less.
The second reason why the Fed is reluctant to expand purchases to include short coupons is the way they have signaled their reaction function on the topic. According to BMO, "in the current framework, it appears that they would need to actually observe liquidity impairment in bills before tweaking the program details." One reason not mentioned by BMO is that with the Fed officially set to transition to QE, it will no longer be possible for Powell to evade a discussion over the new round of monetary easing - i.e., QE4 - and the cascade of question why this is happening when unemployment is 3.5%,  when wage growth is 3.0%, and when the US economy is nowhere near a crisis like the one that launched the original QE. Unless, of course, the US is very near a crisis, and the Fed knows much more than it is letting on...
The last question: "If the Fed pivoted to short coupons, when would they announce the change?"
In terms of timing, the focus on disconnecting the reserve management purchases from true monetary policy makes it unlikely (though not impossible) that the announcement would come at an FOMC meeting. Instead, our focus will
be on the upcoming operational announcements - the next one is February 13 at 3:00 PM ET.

If the FOMC wanted to signal that a pivot into short coupons was imminent, we see two primary avenues: Powell's press conference on January 29 (he's sure to receive a question or two on the topic) and the January meeting Minutes which will be released on February 19.
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"If monetary policy were the key to an earthly prosperity, surely all nations would have bootstrapped themselves by the simple artifice of helicopter money."
 Just over three years ago, TCW's Chief Investment Officer in Fixed Income, Tad Rivelle, oversees roughly $180BN in assets, or more than Jeff Gundlach,stated that we are now living through the third consecutive asset bubble in a row, "the central bankers' bubble" which followed the dot com and housing bubbles...
See Chart:

The Fed Continues to Continue to Pretend.  But when the 2008 crisis hit, market clearing levels for loanable funds were exorbitant.Credit was priced out of reach for all but the most pristine (prudent) borrowers, asset prices were in free fall, and a financial system that had built an excess of leverage was at risk of implosion.

Of course, an asset price inflation spurred on by an expansion of credit is exactly what Dr. Bernanke initially ordered up, though you may recall that he never intended the artificial expansion in loanable funds to be a permanent policy. That all changed with the 2013 “taper tantrum” and was reinforced by the 2018 abortive attempt by the Powell Fed to “normalize” rates and balance sheet so slowly that it was supposed to be like watching “paint dry.” Policies implemented as a response to crisis now can’t be exited without provoking the next crisis.

Monetary policies have long since become more problem than solution.  Raising rates and normalizing the Fed’s balance sheet would now be tantamount to pulling the pegs out from the bottom of the Jenga tower. Fundamentally, you can’t exit a Potemkin economy without forcing changes in the kind and quantities of demand. But, that, of course, would force the supply side to adjust. In other words, we’d have recession.
Exhibit 1: Fed Policies Have Lifted P/E Multiples, Yet Aggregate Profits Have Stagnated
See  Chart:

Absent a crisis, faith in the power of monetary tools to foster a healthy configuration of labor and capital has long been severely misplaced. But market forces are powerful precisely because they are rooted in practical realities. Economics is always about the management of scarcity and while expansions in the supply of credit may shift who gets to buy what resources from whom and when, the plain fact is that a scarce commodity remains so regardless of whether interest rates are high or low. While we may be glossing over notions of relative scarcity versus absolute scarcity, an approachable example, say the supply of oceanfront homes, can serve to illustrate the point.
Continue reading at:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Impeachment- debate  should ‘ve been organized on evidences of highest crimes & misdemeanor committed by Trump.  Saying that the Gvt didn’t allow access to them is a plea to the Supreme Court to  act, if they have interest in the future  of US, BUT,  If  the SC decide not to get involve.. All this theater is a favor to Trump in complicity of SC.
"It’s always been said that impeachment is a political process. Well that’s an understatement when you look at what’s going on now..."
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Maybe the consumer is too broke to ski this year? 
A day at Vail Resorts, that is, if you rent skis and purchase a lift ticket, could cost upwards of $300 per day. And that doesn't include lodging! 
All said and done, a heavily indebted consumer, or let's say a broke millennial, could spend upwards of $500 per day on ski rental, lift ticket, and lodging (ex. food expenses). 
A typical visit to Vail isn't just one day but rather a weekend trip. So, the consumer might spend upwards of $1,500 – all charged to their credit cards with an average rate of 17%
Vail Resorts reported Friday that the ski season, which started on January 05, was off to a very slow start compared to the beginning of last season.
Season-to-date skier visits were down 7.8% compared with the first several weeks of the opening ski season last year. 
The report said season-to-date lift ticket revenue was up 0.40% over the same period. 
Ski school revenue was up 2%, and dining revenue was down 3% over the first several weeks compared to last year.
Retail/rental revenue for North American resorts and ski area store locations was also down 1.8%. 
Commenting on the start of a possible disastrous ski season is Rob Katz, Chief Executive Officer, who said: 
"Relative to the strong conditions in the prior year, the 2019/2020 North American ski season got off to a slower start, impacting both our local and destination guest visitation in the pre-holiday period through December 19, 2019.
"Given the strong conditions last year, the initial guidance for the fiscal year 2020 incorporated the possibility of a slower start to the season."
So if it's a $300 to $500 per day or upwards of $1,500 for the weekend for a Vail trip, does the broke consumer really have that much to spend? So far, the answer to the question at the start of the season is no. 
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Chaos, it seems, is now Washington’s stock-in-trade...
Check these subtitles and key statements:
 Mark Twain took his criticism public. A long-time anti-imperialist, he flippantly suggested that Old Glory should be redesigned “with the white stripes painted black and the stars replaced by the skull and cross-bones.”

Chaos, it seems, is now Washington’s stock-in-trade. Perhaps, then, it’s time to resurrect Twain’s comment - only today maybe those stars on our flag should be replaced with the universal symbol for chaos.
Our present administration, launched this madness. President Trump’s rash, risky, and repugnant decision to assassinate Iranian Major General Qassem Suleimani on the sovereign soil of Iraq was only the latest version of what has proven to be a pervasive state of affairs. Still, that and Trump’s other recent escalations in the region do illustrate an American chaos machine that’s gone off the rails.
Sub-titles:
The Goldilocks Method
Bush, Obama, and the Chaos Machine’s Tragic Foundations
The Trumpian Perfect Storm
The Rapture as Foreign Policy
[[ Conclusion:  ]]
Given the foundations set in place for Trump by George W. Bush and Barack Obama and his capacity to throw caution to the wind, it’s hard to imagine a better candidate to play that role.
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The loss of Kennedy and King constituted conclusive confirmation that the worst mistake in U.S. history was to abandon a limited-government republic, in favor of a totalitarian governmental structure known as a national-security state...
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The big elephant in the room that many people still refuse to talk about is that the U.S. in 2020 is an imperial oligarchy... a system defined by gross concentrations of power and centralization...
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There have been two completely different Americas in U.S. history. Let’s examine twelve ways in which they differ...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

The global oil and gas industry is facing the “twin threats” of the loss of profitability and the loss of social acceptability as the climate crisis continues to worsen...
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Patriot systems deployment 'likely' say Pentagon sources, after Iraq airspace near US bases essentially went 'unprotected'...
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Erdogan continues bid to lay claim to half of entire East Mediterranean waters...
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BBC cites Haftar's top military spokesman: "any military or civilian aircraft, regardless of its affiliation, flying over the capital will be destroyed."
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MEANING OF BOTTOM-UP  REV
“VIVA LA PAZ”  vs Trump ‘ approach: arms, wars & conflicts world-wIde
Hugo Adan  Jan 23 / 2020
This is my reaction to the art:
"Long range lethality, reduced signature, minimum soldier load..."
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To avoid WW3 we have to take Trump out of power. How too? We have to ARM PEACE.  Meaning:  We have to ORGANIZE CELLS &BRIGADES & stake streets  demanding REFERENDUMS  in every Town & States  to define what are the urgent PUBLIC NEEDs  in terms of peace, education, health, salaries and houses  for all.
For us peace means NOT ARMS, NOT VIOLENCE. IF the elected Gvt in each town & State don’t respond to those demand we simply request their RESIGNATION  & we will elect a new one, a parallel one  (whatever the result of official election 2020) .
 REMEMBER 1: in terms of war-policies DEMS & REPS are the same:  look at Congressmen  & most House members; they both  support WW3 .
SO: We have to dismantle Trump’ power first and then then the Dems-war-mongers. We need to organize this bottom-up  peaceful Rev, with special focus on Trump’ policies.
REMEMBER 2: This bottom-up peaceful REV start by demanding the resignation of all war mongers, if they get re- elected in 2020. DEMs war-mongers are the main allies of Trump.  And Trump believe he has them in his pocket. So, Trump is our main problem and demanding his resignation is THE ONLY WAY TO STOP WW3.. that is Trump’s main US policy.
REMEMBER 3: WW3  is a business for the rich, and the Military Industrial Complex (the heart of PENTA-CIA)  for the poor it means death.
This peaceful bottom up REV IS A MATTER OF LIFE vs. DEATH.  Their life depends on arms, violence & wars. Our life depends on  peaceful ORG of cells & brigates to take streets and demand referendums town by town, State by State.       
WE WILL WIN! :  PEACE WILL WIN!
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
COL:  I Duque y M Pompeo:  Juegos de Guerra  Pablo Nariño
Econ:   Alemania se prepara para una pobreza masiva  C  Bourdoiseau
Italia  El profundo mar de las sardine  Paola Lo Cascio
Opin:   La mentira ambulante  Umberto Mazzei
US:   La batalla a muerte de Soros contra Trump  Alfredo Jalife-Rahme
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ALAI NET  ORG  

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RT EN ESPAÑOL

"Eco de Guerra Fría": US inicia  preparativos para  ejercicios militar en Europa     https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340886-ejercicio-defender-eeuu-europa-rusia
"Ya son ricos": Gob VEN acusa a Guaidó, Borges y López de quedarse con dinero de la ayuda humanitaria  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340837-gobierno-venezuela-guaido-borges-lopez-ayuda-humanitaria
"Antes de que sea tarde": millonarios piden a sus 'colegas' pagar impuestos y así evitar "desastre para todos"   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340854-millonarios-pagar-impuestos-evitar-desastre-todos
Maduro busca Ado con la oposición venezolana para renovar el Consejo Nacional Electoral  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340748-maduro-quiere-acuerdo-oposicion-venezolana
Respuesta de Cuba a acusaciones de Áñez de quedarse con el 80 % de pagos a los médicos en Bol   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340818-respuesta-cuba-acusaciones-anez-dinero-medicos
Marcha por la paz: los mexicanos exigen el fin de la violencia   https://actualidad.rt.com/video/340884-marcha-paz-mexicanos-exigen-fin-violencia
Los 3 escándalos de corrupción del primer año de la "autoproclamación" de Guaidó en Ven.   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/340481-escandalos-corrupcion-salpican-juan-guaido
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

- The Trump Coup to Come   By Paul Street
- The American Chaos Machine  By Danny Sjursen
- Tulsi Gabbard sues Hillary Clinton for $50M over 'Russian asset' remark
By ICH & Agencies 
La pedophile Hillary ya deberia  estar en la carcel
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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ASIAN NEWS
Press TV

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