ND FEB 27 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
REAL geo-economic +
geo-political CRISIS
What a day...
China limped lower overnight for the
second day in a row...but remains dramatically higher on the week still...
See Chart:
UK's FTSE fell once again (3-week
lows) as Italy outperformed... and:
US Futures were halted overnight for
a surprisingly long period due to a CME glitch, tumbled on Light hizer, ramped
after the European close... (3rd day of weakness into the close)
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2019-02-27_12-57-49.jpg?itok=5tAUnJgR
Dow and Trannies were worst, Small
Caps outperformed (thanks to the short-squeeze once again)...Nasdaq was ramped
back into the green at the last minute...
See Chart:
Bob Lighthizer sparked an early dump
in stocks after he poured cold water on President Trump's more optimistic
outlook on trade... but that dip was quickly panic bid after Europe closed...
See Chart:
S&P cash was unable to get back
above 2,800 for the 3rd day in a row...
See Chart:
Treasury yields spiked across the
board, triggered by a major IG calendar and rate-locks...
See Chart:
10Y ramped all the way up to a key
trendline level and stalled...
See Chart:
FOMC vs. UST 10Y Yield
The 3m5Y curve inverted once again
today...
See Chart:
The dollar rebounded from overnight
weakness to close green...
See Chart:
Yuan ended unchanged despite a dip
on Lighthizer comments...
Finally, as the month of February
nears an end, with stocks soaring, we note that US Macro data just suffered its
worst monthly disappointments since April 2017...
See Chart:
US Macro Surprise Index
IT COULD NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN, RIGHT?
See Chart:
2019 S&P vs. 1937 S&P
….
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El sueño de
los ricos : opio dream?.. Para Goldman: siempre existirá el cielo neoliberal
When even
Maxine Waters asks the Fed Chairman what the expected level of the Fed's
balance sheet is and when its runoff is projected to end, you know that it's
serious.
While the Fed’s bond portfolio amounted to about 6% of GDP
before the crisis, the new data point unveiled by Powell on Wednesday is that
the balance sheet will likely settle around 16 or 17% of GDP. It is currently about 19.5%,.so roughly 3 more GDP points of
shrinkage and it will be over.
See Chart:
Normalization
So while traders await more details on how and when the
Fed's balance sheet runoff will end, Goldman commented
after Powell's testimony that the bank now expects the FOMC to conclude its balance sheet runoff program at the end
of the third quarter of 2019, and adding that according to today's testimony that announcement
will come at the March meeting.
At the end of Q3, the Fed's assets
are likely to total $3.7-$3.8tn, with bank reserves at $1.3-$1.4tn. From
that point on, we expect reserves to decrease gradually
further via the growth of non-reserve liabilities (i.e., currency outstanding)
until they reach $1.2tn in 2020 H2. While an earlier end to runoff will
temporarily lead to a larger balance sheet relative to a later end, it should
not have a large effect on the long-run size, which is largely pinned down by
equilibrium reserves and currency outstanding.
Specifically, at the end of Q3, the
Fed's assets are likely to total $3.7-$3.8tn, with bank reserves at
$1.3-$1.4tn, or well above the Fed's soft target of $1 trillion, a number which
likely will never be reached due to concerns over more market turbulence.
From that point on, Goldman expect reserves to decrease
gradually further via the growth of non-reserve liabilities (mostly in the form
of currency outstanding) until they reach $1.2tn in 2020 H2. Goldman
explains that while an earlier end to runoff - until recently
consensus expected the balance sheet roll off to end in mid-2020 - will
temporarily lead to a larger balance sheet relative to a later end, "it should not have a large effect on the long-run size, which
is largely pinned down by equilibrium reserves and currency outstanding."
See Chart:
FED likely to End Run-Off early
Shrink Reserves Graduall via Nonreserve Liability Growth
According to Jan Hatzius, .. the Fed would be open to
“limited sales” of “residual holdings” after balance sheet normalization, it is unlikely that they will do so while they keep the size
of the balance sheet flat. As a result, Goldman expects the Fed to maintain its current approach to MBS runoff as its
base case in the near-term, even though eventual small sales of MBS of roughly
$3-$5bn per month are quite possible. At the same time, Fed purchases of
Treasury securities to replace MBS are likely to occur at the front end of the
curve, and in the secondary market where purchases to replace other securities
must occur. This dynamic is shown in the chart below, with Goldman's
baseline scenario leading to a net increase in Treasury
holdings after 2019Q3 while MBS holdings passively shrink, in order to keep the
total size of the balance sheet flat.
See Charts:
We expect continue runoff of MBS
while the total size of balance sheet
remains flat
Finally, a consequence of this is that as some other
analysts have suggested, a deliberate shift toward
shorter Treasury maturities is likely, i.e. a reverse Operation Twist. This would provide the Fed greater flexibility in a
potential downturn to ease via maturity extension, in the same vein of
Operation Twist.
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Reality prevails:
Thousands
of the JV's 20,000 total workers are expected to be laid off as a result of
weak auto sales in what is the world's second largest economy.
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Most people
expect that our signal of an impending
reduction in world oil or coal production will be high prices. Looking
at historical data, this is precisely
the opposite of the correct price signal...
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Today, gun-grabbers in the House of Representatives held their first
major vote on gun control legislation in years.
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The USGS has previously said that California in dire need of the monitoring of at least 8 active
volcanoes...
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"...consumers will likely drink
glyphosate at every happy hour and backyard barbeque around the country"
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She just linked him to a widening corruption
scandal...
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Meadows:
"Did you have foreign contracts over the last two years?"
Cohen: "Yes."
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"...the situation is urgent...The West has gone mad; it has gone so to speak, bananas; mental.
And people there are too scared to even
say it, to write about it..."
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"And that’s the tragic
truth. The former free, productive society has been whittled away. It no longer exists and it’s not coming back..."
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US-World ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"That very situation, however, could tempt a desperate throw of the dice by the Trump administration
to salvage its losses so far...As
easily as they are lionized, US puppets can be just as easily disposed of.
"
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...but some
scientists warn geo-engineering will have unintended consequences.
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"Trump has so closely attached his presidency to fraudulent
indicators like the stock market, when
these indicators come crashing down Trump and the effects of the trade war will
be blamed [on him] instead of the Fed..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars &
danger of WW3
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SHOWS RT
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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Ecua R Correa: “Lenín Moreno debería irse a la cárcel
inmediatamente”
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN
ESPAÑOL
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Listen
Video: “Ultimo
Capitulo de un Golpe de Estado que
Fracaso”
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El Zoom Trump y su 'Troika del mal'
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Howard Lisnoff Follow
the Money to the Border Wall
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Andrew Stewart Getting
Sanders Backwards
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’s team
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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